Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

An ecologically sound and participatory monitoring network for pan-Arctic seabirds

In a warming Arctic, circumpolar long-term monitoring programs are key to advancing ecological knowledge and informing environmental policies. Calls for better involvement of Arctic peoples in all stages of the monitoring process are widespread, although such transformation of Arctic science is still in its infancy. Seabirds stand out as ecological sentinels of environmental changes, and priority has been given to implement the Circumpolar Seabird Monitoring Plan (CSMP). We assessed the representativeness of a pan-Arctic seabird monitoring network focused on the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) by comparing the distribution of environmental variables for all known versus monitored colonies. We found that with respect to its spatiotemporal coverage, this monitoring network does not fully embrace current and future environmental gradients. To improve the current scheme, we designed a method to identify colonies whose inclusion in the monitoring network will improve its ecological representativeness, limit logistical constraints, and improve involvement of Arctic peoples. We thereby highlight that inclusion of study sites in the Bering Sea, Siberia, western Russia, northern Norway, and southeastern Greenland could improve the current monitoring network and that their proximity to local populations might allow increased involvement of local communities. Our framework can be applied to improve existing monitoring networks in other ecoregions and sociological contexts.

Food chain without giants: modelling the trophic impact of bowhead whaling on little auk populations in the Atlantic Arctic

In the Atlantic Arctic, bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) were nearly exterminated by European whalers between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. The collapse of the East Greenland-Svalbard-Barents Sea population, from an estimated 50 000 to a few hundred individuals, drastically reduced predation on mesozooplankton. Here, we tested the hypothesis that this event strongly favoured the demography of the little auk (Alle alle), a zooplanktivorous feeder competitor of bowhead whales and the most abundant seabird in the Arctic. To estimate the effect of bowhead whaling on little auk abundance, we modelled the trophic niche overlap between the two species using deterministic simulations of mesozooplankton spatial distribution. We estimated that bowhead whaling could have led to a 70% increase in northeast Atlantic Arctic little auk populations, from 2.8 to 4.8 million breeding pairs. While corresponding to a major population increase, this is far less than predicted by previous studies. Our study illustrates how a trophic shift can result from the near extirpation of a marine megafauna species, and the methodological framework we developed opens up new opportunities for marine trophic modelling.

Cold adaptation does not handicap warm tolerance in the most abundant Arctic seabird

Arctic birds and mammals are physiologically adapted to survive in cold environments but live in the fastest warming region on the planet. They should therefore be most threatened by climate change. We fitted a phylogenetic model of upper critical temperature (TUC) in 255 bird species and determined that TUC for dovekies (Alle alle; 22.4°C)-the most abundant seabird in the Arctic-is 8.8°C lower than predicted for a bird of its body mass (150 g) and habitat latitude. We combined our comparative analysis with in situ physiological measurements on 36 dovekies from East Greenland and forward-projections of dovekie energy and water expenditure under different climate scenarios. Based on our analyses, we demonstrate that cold adaptation in this small Arctic seabird does not handicap acute tolerance to air temperatures up to at least 15°C above their current maximum. We predict that climate warming will reduce the energetic costs of thermoregulation for dovekies, but their capacity to cope with rising temperatures will be constrained by water intake and salt balance. Dovekies evolved 15 million years ago, and their thermoregulatory physiology might also reflect adaptation to a wide range of palaeoclimates, both substantially warmer and colder than the present day.