Risk factors for measles virus infection and susceptibility in persons aged 15 years and older in China: A multi-site case-control study, 2012–2013

Estimation of the relationship between meteorological factors and measles using spatiotemporal Bayesian model in Shandong Province, China

BACKGROUND

Measles-containing vaccine (MCV) has been effective in controlling the spread of measles. Some countries have declared measles elimination. But recently years, the number of cases worldwide has increased, posing a challenge to the global goal of measles eradication. This study estimated the relationship between meteorological factors and measles using spatiotemporal Bayesian model, aiming to provide scientific evidence for public health policy to eliminate measles.

METHODS

Descriptive statistical analysis was performed on monthly data of measles and meteorological variables in 136 counties of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017. Spatiotemporal Bayesian model was used to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on measles, and to evaluate measles risk areas at county level. Case population was divided into multiple subgroups according to gender, age and occupation. The effects of meteorological factors on measles in subgroups were compared.

RESULTS

Specific meteorological conditions increased the risk of measles, including lower relative humidity, temperature, and atmospheric pressure; higher wind velocity, sunshine duration, and diurnal temperature variation. Taking lowest value (Q1) as reference, RR (95%CI) for higher temperatures (Q2-Q4) were 0.79 (0.69-0.91), 0.54 (0.44-0.65), and 0.48 (0.38-0.61), respectively; RR (95%CI) for higher relative humidity (Q2-Q4) were 0.76 (0.66-0.88), 0.56 (0.47-0.67), and 0.49 (0.38-0.63), respectively; RR (95%CI) for higher wind velocity (Q2-Q4) were 1.43 (1.25-1.64), 1.85 (1.57-2.18), 2.00 (1.59-2.52), respectively. 22 medium-to-high risk counties were identified, mainly in northwestern, southwestern and central Shandong Province. The trend was basically same in the effects of meteorological factors on measles in subgroups, but the magnitude of the effects was different.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors have an important impact on measles. It is crucial to integrate these factors into public health policies for measles prevention and control in China.

A study on relationship between the incidence of measles and nosocomial exposure at measles epidemic season in Chongqing

After measles vaccine supplementary immunization, the epidemiological characteristics of measles have changed in Chongqing, China. In addition, according to data from the National Measles Surveillance Information System, the proportion of measles cases with a history of hospital visit 7 to 21 days prior to onset of measles increased year by year to 32.1% in 2016. Further studies are necessary to eliminate the influence of nosocomial exposure on measles. We performed a case-control study in seven districts of Chongqing from June to August 2016 to identify risk factors for measles virus infection and susceptibility. Laboratory-confirmed measles who younger than 5 years old were matched with one control by age and residence. We interviewed case patients and controls regarding potential risk factors for measles virus infection and susceptibility. Unadjusted and adjusted matched odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using non-conditional logistic regression. After a cross-sectional analysis of the behavioral characteristics of visiting hospitals in the case and control groups, it was found that there was a difference between the two groups in the choice of hospitals visited for the first time (χ2 = 35.500, P = .000), and that nosocomial transmission risk tended to develop in outpatient services of respiratory medicine. After analysis using one-way ANOVA, the relationship between hospital visits prior to onset and the incidence risk of measles was that visiting hospitals five times within 1 to 3 weeks prior to onset affected the incidence (OR = 44.866, 95%CI = 5.938-338.981). The relationship between the number of types of hospitals visited prior to onset and the risk of nosocomial exposure to measles showed that visiting any community hospital, children's hospital, or general hospital had no risk, but visiting two or more of these hospitals affected the incidence (OR = 6.928, 95%CI = 3.849-13.754). Based on further analysis, the relationship between the number of hospital visits after onset and the risk of nosocomial exposure to measles was that the chances of visiting hospitals increased after onset. Risks of nosocomial exposure to measles and infections are high in pediatric hospitals. Nosocomial exposure risk factors should be considered when controlling measles.

Measles Epidemiology and Viral Nucleoprotein Gene Evolution in Shandong Province, China

Measles, caused by measles virus (MeV), has not been eradicated in many regions and countries, threatening human health. Thus, it is beneficial for measles elimination to understand measles epidemiology and molecular evolution of key viral genes, such as nucleoprotein (N) gene. Based on public data, measles epidemiological information and MeV N gene sequences reported in Shandong Province, China were comprehensively collected and systematically analyzed. The results showed a positive correlation between population density and measles incidence (r = + 0.31), while negative correlations were found between measles incidence and healthcare condition (r = - 0.21) as well as average routine vaccination rate (r = - 0.11). Additionally, the predominant lineage of MeV in Shandong was formed by genotype H1 strains, and the time of the most recent common ancestor of the N gene of MeV genotype H1 in Shandong traced back to 1987 (95% highest posterior density, 1984-1990) with relatively rapid evolution (mean rate, 1.267×10^-3 substitutions/site/year). The genetic diversity of MeV N gene increased with the substantial emergence of major divergent clades of genotype H1 before 2005 and then remained relatively stable. In summary, these findings provided a significant insight into the measles elimination. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the population measles susceptibility in Tianjin, China

BACKGROUND

Measles is a highly infectious illness requiring herd immunity of 95% to interrupt transmission. China has not reached elimination goals despite high vaccination coverage. We estimated the population susceptibility against measles in Tianjin, China and to tailor awareness raising activities in the measles elimination plan.

METHODS

Age-specific measles seroprevalence was evaluated by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) on 12,164 individual aged 0-44 years in 2009-2018. Measles IgG avidity testing was performed to confirm the relationship of the waning immunity after vaccination and secondary vaccination failures (SVF) on 324 confirmed measles cases in 2013-2018.

RESULTS

11,108 samples (91.32%) tested positive for measles IgG, 239 (1.96%) tested as equivocal and 817 (6.72%) were negative. The age distribution of measles cases in Tianjin followed a U-shaped curve and was highest for those at <8 months and again at 20-39 years which correlated closely with the age distribution of measles susceptibility based on measles IgG antibody status (r = 0.72, P < 0.001). The seropositivity rate and antibody geometric mean concentration (GMC) for the 2018 study population were significantly lower (χ² = 7.45, P = 0.006 and t = 12.01, P < 0.001) compared to 2009. The multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that age and region were the risk factors for both measles seropositivity rate and GMC after vaccination. The proportion of high avidity cases increased with age, being significantly higher in 75.31% of cases in patients aged 30-34 years (χ² = 18.04, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

High immunization coverage in children alone will not be adequate to realizing sufficient levels of population herd immunity, particularly given that the potential susceptibility window in adult. Implementation of supplemental immunization activity (SIA) targeted to appropriate group aged 30-34 years is recommended.