Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

4CMenB journey to the 10-year anniversary and beyond

The 4-component meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) vaccine, 4CMenB, the first broadly protective, protein-based MenB vaccine to be licensed, is now registered in more than 50 countries worldwide. Real-world evidence (RWE) from the last decade confirms its effectiveness and impact, with infant immunization programs showing vaccine effectiveness of 71-95% against invasive MenB disease and cross-protection against non-B serogroups, including a 69% decrease in serogroup W cases in 4CMenB-eligible cohorts in England. RWE from different countries also demonstrates the potential for additional moderate protection against gonorrhea in adolescents. The real-world safety profile of 4CMenB is consistent with prelicensure reports. Use of the endogenous complement human serum bactericidal antibody (enc-hSBA) assay against 110 MenB strains may enable assessment of the immunological effectiveness of multicomponent MenB vaccines in clinical trial settings. Equitable access to 4CMenB vaccination is required to better protect all age groups, including older adults, and vulnerable groups through comprehensive immunization policies.

Use of a meningococcal group B vaccine (4CMenB) in populations at high risk of gonorrhoea in the UK

The meningococcal group B vaccine, 4CMenB, is a broad-spectrum, recombinant protein vaccine that is licensed for protection against meningococcal group B disease in children and adults. Over the past decade, several observational studies supported by laboratory studies have reported protection by 4CMenB against gonorrhoea, a sexually transmitted infection caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Gonorrhoea is a major global public health problem, with rising numbers of diagnoses and increasing resistance to multiple antibiotics. In England, more than 82 000 cases of gonorrhoea were diagnosed in 2022, with nearly half of the cases diagnosed among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. There are currently no licensed vaccines against gonorrhoea but 4CMenB is estimated to provide 33-47% protection against gonorrhoea. On Nov 10, 2023, the UK Joint Scientific Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation agreed that a targeted programme should be initiated using 4CMenB to prevent gonorrhoea among individuals at higher risk of infection attending sexual health services in the UK. This decision was made after reviewing evidence from retrospective and prospective observational studies, laboratory and clinical data, national surveillance reports, and health economic analyses. In this Review, we summarise the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea in England, the evidence supporting the use of 4CMenB for protection against gonorrhoea, and the data needed to inform long-term programme planning and extension to the wider population.

Review of mathematical models of Neisseria gonorrhoeae vaccine impact: Implications for vaccine development

An effective prophylactic vaccine for prevention of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection would have a major impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Interest in developing gonorrhoea vaccines is growing due to the reported high rates of N. gonorrhoeae infections globally, and the threat of antimicrobial resistance. Several gonorrhoea vaccine candidates are currently under evaluation and various mathematical models have been used to assess the potential population-level impact a gonorrhoea vaccine may have once available. Here we review key aspects of gonorrhoea vaccine mathematical modelling studies, including model structures, populations considered, and assumptions used as well as vaccine characteristics and implementation scenarios investigated. The predicted vaccine impact varied between studies, ranging from as little as ∼17 % reduction in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence after 30 years up to 100 % reduction after 5 years. However, all studies predicted that even a partially effective gonorrhoea vaccine could have a substantial impact in reducing N. gonorrhoeae prevalence or incidence, particularly when high coverage is achieved within either important risk groups or the overall sexually active population. As expected, higher vaccine efficacy against acquisition of N. gonorrhoeae and longer duration of protection were linked to greater reductions in infections. A vaccine that alters onward transmission could also substantially reduce infections. Several gaps and research needs have been identified by researchers in the field and via this narrative literature review. For example, future modelling to inform gonorrhoea vaccine development and implementation should consider additional populations that are at high risk of N. gonorrhoeae infection, especially in low- and middle-income settings, as well as the impact of vaccination on the potential adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes of infection. In addition, more detailed and robust epidemiological, biological, and behavioural data is needed to enable more accurate and robust modelling of gonorrhoea vaccine impact to inform future scientific and public health decision-making.

Vaccination May Be Economically and Epidemiologically Advantageous Over Frequent Screening for Gonorrhea Prevention

BACKGROUND

Gonorrhea's rapid development of antimicrobial resistance underscores the importance of new prevention modalities. Recent evidence suggests that a serogroup B meningococcal vaccine may be partially effective against gonococcal infection. However, the viability of vaccination and the role it should play in gonorrhea prevention are an open question.

METHODS

We modeled the transmission of gonorrhea over a 10-year period in a heterosexual population to find optimal patterns of year-over-year investment of a fixed budget in vaccination and screening programs. Each year, resources could be allocated to vaccinating people or enrolling them in a quarterly screening program. Stratifying by mode (vaccination vs. screening), sex (male vs. female), and enrollment venue (background screening vs. symptomatic visit), we consider 8 different ways of controlling gonorrhea. We then found the year-over-year pattern of investment among those 8 controls that most reduced the incidence of gonorrhea under different assumptions. A compartmental transmission model was parameterized from existing literature in the US context.

RESULTS

Vaccinating men with recent symptomatic infection, which selected for higher sexual activity, was optimal for population-level gonorrhea control. Given a prevention budget of $3 per capita, 9.5% of infections could be averted ($299 per infection averted), decreasing gonorrhea sequelae and associated antimicrobial use by similar percentages. These results were consistent across sensitivity analyses that increased the budget, prioritized incidence or prevalence reductions in women, or lowered screening costs. Under a scenario where only screening was implemented, just 5.5% of infections were averted.

CONCLUSIONS

A currently available vaccine, although only modestly effective, may be superior to frequent testing for population-level gonorrhea control.

A Qualitative Concept Elicitation Study to Understand Patient-Reported Symptoms and Impacts of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infections in the United States

BACKGROUND

Gonorrhea is the second most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the United States, with rising rates. Emerging antimicrobial resistance threatens public health, and vaccines are in development. This study documents patient-reported gonorrhea symptoms and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) impact in women who have sex with men (WSM), men who have sex with women (MSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

Semistructured qualitative interviews were conducted (April 2021-March 2022) among US adults with recent (≤6 months) confirmed gonorrhea. Concept saturation was achieved, confirming adequate participant numbers to meet objectives. Elicited symptom and HRQoL impacts were used to develop a conceptual disease model. Common patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) items were compared with elicited concepts.

RESULTS

Thirty-two participants (15 WSM, 8 MSW, and 9 MSM) were included. Eight were asymptomatic, 6 had repeat infections, and 5 women and 4 men had complications (i.e., infertility or pelvic inflammatory disease, and urethritis, respectively).The most frequently reported symptoms were vaginal discharge (n = 11 of 12), dysuria (n = 10 of 12), and abdominal/vaginal pain (n = 9 of 12) for symptomatic WSM; dysuria (n = 5 of 6) and penile discharge (n = 4 of 6) for symptomatic MSW; and throat, testicular, or rectal pain (n = 4 of 6) for symptomatic MSM. All (symptomatic and asymptomatic) participants reported HRQoL impacts including negative emotional experiences (n = 31 of 32), and interference with sexual activity (n = 30 of 32), relationships (n = 24 of 32), and social life (n = 17 of 32). Concepts were poorly represented in existing PROMs.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants reported a diverse range of symptoms and HRQoL impacts, to help inform the value of new treatment and prevention options. More research is needed to quantify patient burden and develop PROMs.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae vaccines: a contemporary overview

Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection is an important public health issue, with an annual global incidence of 87 million. N. gonorrhoeae infection causes significant morbidity and can have serious long-term impacts on reproductive and neonatal health and may rarely cause life-threatening disease. Global rates of N. gonorrhoeae infection have increased over the past 20 years. Importantly, rates of antimicrobial resistance to key antimicrobials also continue to increase, with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identifying drug-resistant N. gonorrhoeae as an urgent threat to public health. This review summarizes the current evidence for N. gonorrhoeae vaccines, including historical clinical trials, key N. gonorrhoeae vaccine preclinical studies, and studies of the impact of Neisseria meningitidis vaccines on N. gonorrhoeae infection. A comprehensive survey of potential vaccine antigens, including those identified through traditional vaccine immunogenicity approaches, as well as those identified using more contemporary reverse vaccinology approaches, are also described. Finally, the potential epidemiological impacts of a N. gonorrhoeae vaccine and research priorities for further vaccine development are described.

Promising developments in gonococcal vaccines

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

While effective vaccines to prevent invasive infections by Neisseria meningitidis have been deployed around the world, development of a vaccine to prevent Neisseria gonorrhoeae has lagged. After multiple failed vaccine candidates, vaccine development for N. gonorrhoeae is showing promise for the first time in several decades. This review highlights recent progress in the field.

RECENT FINDINGS

Vaccines containing outer-membrane vesicles (OMV) have been used to manage outbreaks of the serogroup B N. meningitidis in a number of countries. Epidemiologic studies indicate these vaccination campaigns were associated with reductions in reported N. gonorrhoeae infections. Recently, a serogroup B N. meningitidis vaccine containing both recombinant antigens and OMV has been licensed through much of the world. Epidemiologic studies also demonstrate associations between 4CMenB immunization and reduced N. gonorrhoeae infections. Additionally, mathematical modeling studies have begun to identify potential strategies for vaccine deployment to maximize reduction of infections.

SUMMARY

After several decades with little progress towards an effective gonococcal vaccine, large observational studies have provided evidence that a new generation of group B N. meningitidis vaccines containing OMV have serendipitously restarted the field. Ongoing clinical trials will soon provide definitive evidence regarding the efficacy of these vaccines in preventing N. gonorrhoeae infection.

The potential impact of a vaccine on Neisseria gonorrhoeae prevalence among heterosexuals living in a high prevalence setting

BACKGROUND

Treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae is under threat with the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. Thus, there is a growing interest in the development of a gonorrhoea vaccine. We used mathematical modelling to assess the impact of a hypothetical vaccine in controlling gonorrhoea among heterosexuals living in a setting of relatively high N. gonorrhoeae prevalence (∼3 %).

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of N. gonorrhoeae transmission among 15-49-year-old heterosexuals, stratified by age and sex, and calibrated to prevalence and sexual behaviour data from South Africa as an example of a high prevalence setting for which we have data available. Using this model, we assessed the potential impact of a vaccine on N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in the entire population. We considered gonorrhoea vaccines having differing impacts on N. gonorrhoeae infection and transmission and offered to different age-groups.

RESULTS

The model predicts that N. gonorrhoeae prevalence can be reduced by ∼50 % in 10 years following introduction of a vaccine if annual vaccination uptake is 10 %, vaccine efficacy against acquisition of infection is 25 % and duration of protection is 5 years, with vaccination available to the entire population of 15-49-year-olds. If only 15-24-year-olds are vaccinated, the predicted reduction in prevalence in the entire population is 25 % with equivalent vaccine characteristics and uptake. Although predicted reductions in prevalence for vaccination programmes targeting only high-activity individuals and the entire population are similar over the same period, vaccinating only high-activity individuals is more efficient as the cumulative number of vaccinations needed to reduce prevalence in the entire population by 50 % is ∼3 times lower for this programme.

CONCLUSION

Provision of a gonorrhoea vaccine could lead to substantial reductions in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in a high prevalence heterosexual setting, even with moderate annual vaccination uptake of a vaccine with partial efficacy.