COVID-19 and armed conflict

Conflict, COVID-19, and crisis response: shifting from 'pivoting' to preparedness

This paper assesses the extent to which the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic directed the attention and resources of the international community away from peacebuilding, and the potential impact of this on conflict-affected environments. It draws from a global survey, interviews, and conversations with peacebuilding practitioners, publicly available information on peacebuilding funding, and real-time data on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. The paper argues that resources and attention have 'pivoted' away from peacebuilding to tackle the threat presented by COVID-19, and that this can-but does not always-adversely affect conflict dynamics. It contends that this pivoting belies the interconnectedness of crises, leads to 'forgotten crises' and escalating threats, and exposes deficiencies in peacebuilding funding and, more broadly, preparedness and crisis response. Crises do, however, provide opportunities for reflection and change, including how to address these deficiencies and, in so doing, advance more efficient, effective, and ethical practice.

'Forgotten crises' as forgotten sites of knowledge production for building lasting peace

'Forgotten crises' constitute a permanent background to any present and future global humanitarian and development efforts. They represent a significant impediment to promoting lasting peace given concurrent catastrophes exacerbated by climate change. Yet, they are routinely neglected and remain unresolved. Building on critical and feminist approaches, this paper theorises them as forgotten sites of local knowledge production. It asks: what is local knowledge of and from forgotten crises? How can it be recovered and resignified, and what lessons can such knowledge provide at the global level? Drawing on examples from the intersections of conflict, disasters, and pandemics in the Philippines, the paper makes a case for valuing local knowledge arising from forgotten crises because of its potential contribution to adapting global humanitarian and development systems to address crises on multiple fronts. Such epistemic margins are generative of vantage points that can present a fuller account of how different crises interact and how best to respond to them.

Respiratory health and the Syrian conflict: a scoping literature review

Conflict adversely affects respiratory health in both direct and indirect ways among populations whose health is already compromised through the compounding effects of conflict. Our aim is to review academic and grey literature relevant to respiratory health in the Syrian conflict (now more than a decade in duration) to explore its impacts on populations across Syria. We performed a scoping literature review of academic and grey literature on respiratory health in Syria between March 2011 (taken as the start of the conflict for practicality) and December 2023. Of 11,472 papers screened, 34 met the inclusion criteria, of which 29 were peer reviewed. Key themes identified included the impact of conflict on asthma diagnosis and management; the burden of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and COVID-19; the impact of chemical weapon use and the impact of destruction and interruptions to the health system(s) across Syria on respiratory health. This review highlights the need for more in-depth exploration of the impact of conflict on respiratory health in Syria with focus on social determinants, for example, shelter, public health interventions, smoking cessation, and supporting early diagnosis and treatment of respiratory conditions to counter the effects that conflict has had on respiratory health.

The effects of COVID-19 on domestic and international security in democratic and authoritarian regimes

While numerous studies have examined how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected health care systems, supply chains, and economies, we do not understand how the pandemic has impacted the security of democratic and authoritarian states from a global standpoint. Thus, this study examines how COVID-19 has affected the security of democratic and authoritarian regimes. In conducting a historical, qualitative review of the security effects of the pandemic, we find that COVID-19 significantly affected domestic and international security for democratic and authoritarian states in both similar and varied ways. Additionally, the manner in which states responded to the pandemic was often conditioned by their regime type and by the nature of the governing leadership during the pandemic. These findings have important implications in considering how COVID-19 affected the security of democratic and authoritarian states, how regime type shapes government responses to infectious disease outbreaks, and how democratic and authoritarian states may respond to future pandemics.

An integrated deep-learning and multi-level framework for understanding the behavior of terrorist groups

Human security is threatened by terrorism in the 21st century. A rapidly growing field of study aims to understand terrorist attack patterns for counter-terrorism policies. Existing research aimed at predicting terrorism from a single perspective, typically employing only background contextual information or past attacks of terrorist groups, has reached its limits. Here, we propose an integrated deep-learning framework that incorporates the background context of past attacked locations, social networks, and past actions of individual terrorist groups to discover the behavior patterns of terrorist groups. The results show that our framework outperforms the conventional base model at different spatio-temporal resolutions. Further, our model can project future targets of active terrorist groups to identify high-risk areas and offer other attack-related information in sequence for a specific terrorist group. Our findings highlight that the combination of a deep-learning approach and multi-scalar data can provide groundbreaking insights into terrorism and other organized violent crimes.

COVID-19, Climate Change, and Conflict in Honduras: A food system disruption analysis

In Honduras, as in many settings between 2020 and 2022, food security was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and conflicts-what some refer to as "The Three Cs." These challenges have had overlapping impacts on food supply chains, food assistance programs, food prices, household purchasing power, physical access to food, and food acceptability. This article applies a food system disruption analysis-adapted from a fault tree analysis originally developed for a municipal context in the United States-to the context of Honduras to systematically examine how the Three Cs affected food availability, accessibility, and acceptability. This article demonstrates the value of approaching food security through a disruption analysis, especially for settings impacted by multiple, interconnected, ongoing crises.

Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change

Objectives

Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change.

Methodology

Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020-2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors.

Findings

The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk.

Conclusion

COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change.

Implications

Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.

Priority setting for pandemic preparedness and response: A comparative analysis of COVID-19 pandemic plans in 12 countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted health systems and exacerbated pre-existing resource gaps in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO-EMRO). Active humanitarian and refugee crises have led to mass population displacement and increased health system fragility, which has implication for equitable priority setting (PS). We examine whether and how PS was included in national COVID-19 pandemic plans within EMRO.

Methods

An analysis of COVID-19 pandemic response and preparedness planning documents from a sample of 12/22 countries in WHO-EMRO. We assessed the degree to which documented PS processes adhere to twenty established quality parameters of effective PS.

Results

While all reviewed plans addressed some aspect of PS, none included all quality parameters. Yemen's plan included the highest number (9) of quality parameters, while Egypt's addressed the lowest (3). Most plans used evidence in their planning processes. While no plans explicitly identify equity as a criterion to guide PS; many identified vulnerable populations - a key component of equitable PS. Despite high concentrations of refugees, migrants, and IDPs in EMRO, only a quarter of the plans identified them as vulnerable.

Conclusion

PS setting challenges are exacerbated by conflict and the resulting health system fragmentation. Systematic and quality PS is essential to tackle long-term health implications of COVID-19 for vulnerable populations in this region, and to support effective PS and equitable resource allocation.

Understanding peace through the world news

Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.

Social and Cognitive Psychology Theories in Understanding COVID-19 as the Pandemic of Blame

When faced with adverse circumstances, there may be a tendency for individuals, agencies, and governments to search for a target to assign blame. Our focus will be on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, where racial groups, political parties, countries, and minorities have been blamed for spreading, producing or creating the virus. Blame-here defined as attributing causality, responsibility, intent, or foresight to someone/something for a fault or wrong-has already begun to damage modern society and medical practice in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. Evidence from past and current pandemics suggest that this tendency to seek blame affects international relations, promotes unwarranted devaluation of health professionals, and prompts a spike of racism and discrimination. By drawing on social and cognitive psychology theories, we provide a framework that helps to understand (1) the effect of blame in pandemics, (2) when people blame, whom they blame, and (3) how blame detrimentally affects the COVID-19 response. Ultimately, we provide a path to inform health messaging to reduce blaming tendencies, based on social psychological principles for health communication.

Real-time suicide surveillance supporting policy and practice

Suicide mortality rates are a strong indicator of population mental-health and can be used to determine the efficacy of prevention measures. Monitoring suicide mortality rates in real-time provides an evidence-base to inform targeted interventions in a timely manner and accelerate suicide prevention responses. This paper outlines the importance of real-time suicide surveillance in the context of policy and practice, with a particular focus on public health and humanitarian crises.

When Covid-19 meets conflict: politics of the pandemic response in fragile and conflict-affected states

The Covid-19 pandemic has magnified existing crises and vulnerabilities, but much remains unknown about how it has affected fragile and conflict-affected settings. This paper builds on the theory that hazards become a disaster in interaction with vulnerability and response policies, yet often lead to renewed disaster risk creation. It is based on seven case studies of countries worldwide that experienced social conflict at the advent of the pandemic, covering the period from March-August 2020. The findings show that authorities instrumentalised Covid-19 to strengthen their control and agendas. Responsibility was assumed for lockdowns, but this was not accompanied by care to mitigate their adverse effects. Social conflict shaped the response, as high levels of mistrust in authorities complicated the implementation of measures, while authorities did not support community-based coping initiatives. Whether Covid-19 will trigger or exacerbate conflict and vulnerabilities depends on pre-existing, country-specific conditions, and how a government and other actors frame the issue and respond.

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences. Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19. Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.