Predicting adults likely to develop heart failure using readily available clinical information: An analysis of heart failure incidence using the NHEFS

Performance of the heart failure risk scores in predicting 1 year mortality and short-term readmission of patients

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of these main scores in predicting prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 2008 patients who were admitted to the Fourth People's Hospital of Zigong, Sichuan, from December 2016 to June 2019 and diagnosed with HF were included in the study. We compared the prognostic predictive performance of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure programme (GWTG-HF), Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND) risk scores, the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) model, Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, and Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure (GISSI-HF) for the endpoints. The primary endpoint was 1 year all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was the incidence of 28 day readmission post-discharge. At 1 year follow-up, 44 (2.21%) patients with HF died. Discrimination analyses showed that all risk scores performed reasonably well in predicting 1 year mortality, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) fluctuating between 0.757 and 0.822. GISSI-HF showed the best discrimination with the AUC of 0.822 (0.768-0.876), followed by MAGGIC-HF, BCN-Bio-HF, ASCEND, SHFM, GWTG-HF, and ADHERE with AUCs of 0.819 (0.756-0.883), 0.812 (0.758-0.865), 0.802 (0.742-0.862), 0.787 (0.725-0.849), 0.762 (0.684-0.840), and 0.757 (0.681-0.833), respectively. All risk scores were similarly predictive of 28 day emergency readmissions, with AUCs fluctuating between 0.609 and 0.680. Overestimation of mortality occurred in all scores except the ASCEND. The risk scores remained with good prognostic discrimination in patients with biventricular HF and in the subgroup of patients taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently assessed risk scores have limited clinical utility, with fair accuracy and calibration in assessing patients' 1 year risk of death and poor accuracy in assessing patients' risk of readmission. There is a need to incorporate more patient-level information, use more advanced technologies, and develop models for different subgroups of patients to achieve more practical, innovative, and accurate risk assessment tools.

Risk factors and management of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with heart failure: A retrospective analysis

ABSTRACT

Pulmonary infection is common in patients with heart failure, yet the risk factors remain unclear. We aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics and risk factors of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with heart failure, to provide reference to the prevention of pulmonary infection.This study was a retrospective study design. We included elderly heart failure patient admitted to our hospital from April 1, 2018 to August 31, 2020. The characteristics and clinical data of pulmonary infection and no infection patients were assessed. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors of pulmonary infections in patients with heart failure.A total of 201 patients were included. The incidence of pulmonary infection in patients with heart failure was 23.88%. There were significant differences in the age, diabetes, New York Heart Association (NYHA) grade, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), C-reactive protein (CRP) between infection and no infection group (all P < .05), and there were not differences in the sex, body mass index, alcohol drinking, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, length of hospital stay between 2 groups (all P > .05). Logistic regression analyses indicated that age ≥70 years, diabetes, NYHA grade III, LVEF ≤55%, and CRP ≥10 mg/L were the independent risk factors of pulmonary infections in patients with heart failure (all P < .05). Pseudomonas aeruginosa (34.48%), Staphylococcus aureus (19.57%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (15.22%) were the most common 3 pathogens in patients with pulmonary infection.Heart failure patients with age ≥70 years, diabetes, NYHA grade III, LVEF ≤55%, and CRP ≥10 mg/L have higher risks of pulmonary infections, preventive measures targeted on those risk factors are needed to reduce pulmonary infections.

Association between lung function and future risks of diabetes, asthma, myocardial infarction, hypertension and all-cause mortality

BACKGROUND

While forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) is a hallmark of disease progression in chronic obstructive lung diseases, little is known about the relationship between baseline FEV1 and future risks of other medical conditions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between baseline FEV1 and future risks of diabetes, asthma, myocardial infarction, hypertension and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and its Epidemiological Follow-Up Study. Our data provided longitudinal follow-up of the original cohort for up to 12 years. We used two competing risks approaches, the cause-specific hazard model and the Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model, to measure the associations between baseline FEV1 and future risks of the outcomes of interest. All models were adjusted for major confounding factors.

RESULTS

The final sample included 3020 participants (mean±sd baseline age 44.64±13.44 years). In the cause-specific hazard model, for every per cent increase in the baseline per cent predicted FEV1, the hazard of the event reduced by 2.5% (HR 0.975; 95% CI 0.958-0.994) for diabetes, 4.3% (HR 0.957; 95% CI 0.932-0.983) for asthma and 1.8% (HR 0.982; 95% CI 0.971-0.992) for all-cause mortality. There was no statistically significant association between baseline per cent predicted FEV1 and future risks of myocardial infarction (HR 0.987; 95% CI 0.970-1.004) and hypertension (HR 0.998; 95% CI 0.992-1.005). Consistent results were observed for the Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that lower per cent predicted FEV1 values at baseline were significantly associated with higher future risks of diabetes, asthma and all-cause mortality.

Impact of Sacubitril/Valsartan on Patient Outcomes in Heart Failure: Evidence to Date

With an estimated 6.2 million adults affected in the USA, heart failure remains a leading cause of morbidity, mortality, and health-care costs, despite the use of guideline-based medical therapies. The search for a more efficient therapy was rekindled when findings from the Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor–Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) trial demonstrated evidence for cardiovascular and mortality benefit of sacubitril/valsartan, a dual angiotensin receptor blocker and neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), over enalapril (an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor) in patients with heart failure and reduced rjection fraction (HFrEF). Following the trial’s compelling results, recommendations for the use of sacubitril/valsartan as a replacement for an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and/or angiotensin receptor blocker were incorporated into the 2016 American College of Cardiology (ACC), the American Heart Association (AHA), and the Heart Failure Society of America recommended (HFSA) guidelines for the management of heart failure. This review aims to gain insight into the benefits as well as limitations associated with the use of sacubitril/valsartan in the treatment of heart failure (HF) through exploration of various subgroup analyses of the PARADIGM-HF trial, subsequent retrospective analyses, and randomized controlled trials that followed this landmark trial.

Plasma HbA1c in the investigation of suspected heart failure in general practice: An audit of the 2018 NICE guidelines update

Introduction:

Diabetes mellitus is a known risk factor for heart failure (HF); nevertheless, many HF patients remain undiagnosed. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England updated their HF guidelines in 2018, replacing the use of fasting plasma glucose with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), in suspected HF investigation. This audit aimed to assess this update's uptake at a general practice partnership in Colchester, England.

Materials and Methods:

The audit cycle consisted of a two-round electronic record search, for approximately 29,000 patients registered at the partnership. From November 1, 2017 to November 1, 2018 for the first round and from November 1, 2018 to March 6, 2019 for the second round, patients who had their NT pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels measured for the initial investigation of suspected HF were included in the study. Interventions put in place after the first round included an oral presentation and an illustrated guide for the general practitioners (GPs).

Results:

One hundred and ten patients, 19 in cycle 1 and 91 in cycle 2, were identified and included in the analysis. At the first round, only 31.6% of the patients had their HbA1c level measured, while 36.8% had no diabetic investigation done. At the second round, the percentage of patients who had their HbA1c level assessed increased to 59.3%. A decrease from 36.8% of patients without diabetic status assessment to 20% was observed.

Conclusions:

Lack of awareness among GPs regarding this guideline update was identified and simple interventions achieved an increase in the guideline's uptake. Regular and complete audit cycles can help GPs adhere to up-to-date guidelines. Primary care can help other organizations such as pathology laboratories keep up to date with guidelines, while primary care technology can be amended in-house to help adherence to new guidelines. We recommend the National UK Heart Failure Audit considers auditing the use of HbA1c testing in inpatients investigated for new HF.