Hierarchical models for probabilistic dose–response assessment

Human health risk assessment for contaminated sites: A retrospective review

Soil contamination is a serious global hazard as contaminants can migrate to the human body through the soil, water, air, and food, threatening human health. Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) is a commonly used method for estimating the magnitude and probability of adverse health effects in humans that may be exposed to contaminants in contaminated environmental media in the present or future. Such estimations have improved for decades with various risk assessment frameworks and well-established models. However, the existing literature does not provide a comprehensive overview of the methods and models of HHRA that are needed to grasp the current status of HHRA and future research directions. Thus, this paper aims to systematically review the HHRA approaches and models, particularly those related to contaminated sites from peer-reviewed literature and guidelines. The approaches and models focus on methods used in hazard identification, toxicity databases in dose-response assessment, approaches and fate and transport models in exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty characterization. The features and applicability of the most commonly used HHRA tools are also described. The future research trend for HHRA for contaminated sites is also forecasted. The transition from animal experiments to new methods in risk identification, the integration and update and sharing of existing toxicity databases, the integration of human biomonitoring into the risk assessment process, and the integration of migration and transformation models and risk assessment are the way forward for risk assessment in the future. This review provides readers with an overall understanding of HHRA and a grasp of its developmental direction.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the effect of acidified seawater on development stages of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis)

Growing evidence indicates that ocean acidification has a significant impact on calcifying marine organisms. However, there is a lack of exposure risk assessments for aquatic organisms under future environmentally relevant ocean acidification scenarios. The objective of this study was to investigate the probabilistic effects of acidified seawater on the life-stage response dynamics of fertilization, larvae growth, and larvae mortality of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis). We incorporated the regulation of primary body cavity (PBC) pH in response to seawater pH into the assessment by constructing an explicit model to assess effective life-stage response dynamics to seawater or PBC pH levels. The likelihood of exposure to ocean acidification was also evaluated by addressing the uncertainties of the risk characterization. For unsuccessful fertilization, the estimated 50% effect level of seawater acidification (EC50 _SW ) was 0.55 ± 0.014 (mean ± SE) pH units. This life stage was more sensitive than growth inhibition and mortality, for which the EC50 values were 1.13 and 1.03 pH units, respectively. The estimated 50% effect levels of PBC pH (EC50 _PBC ) were 0.99 ± 0.05 and 0.88 ± 0.006 pH units for growth inhibition and mortality, respectively. We also predicted the probability distributions for seawater and PBC pH levels in 2100. The level of unsuccessful fertilization had 50 and 90% probability risks of 5.07-24.51 (95% CI) and 0-6.95%, respectively. We conclude that this probabilistic risk analysis model is parsimonious enough to quantify the multiple vulnerabilities of the green sea urchin while addressing the systemic effects of ocean acidification. This study found a high potential risk of acidification affecting the fertilization of the green sea urchin, whereas there was no evidence for adverse effects on growth and mortality resulting from exposure to the predicted acidified environment.

Validation and quality control of replacement alternatives – current status and future challenges

Alternatives to animal testing have been developed mainly in the fields of toxicology and vaccine testing. Typical examples are the evaluation of phototoxicity, eye irritation or skin corrosion/irritation of cosmetics and industrial chemicals. However, examples can also be found in other biomedical areas, such the control of the quality of drug preparations for pyrogens or for the control of the production process of biologics, such as botulinum neurotoxin. For regulatory purposes, the quality, transferability and predictivity of an alternative method needs to be evaluated. This procedure is called the “validation process” of a new method. It follows defined rules, and several governmental institutions have been established to perform, supervise or advise on this process. As this often results in a delay of method implementation, different alternatives for the evaluation of a method's suitability and quality are under discussion. We describe here the principles of model development and quality control. We also give an overview on methods that have undergone validation. Strengths and shortcomings of traditional approaches are discussed, and new developments and challenges are outlined.

Assessing the cancer risk associated with arsenic-contaminated seafood

Tens of millions of people worldwide ingest excessive amounts of arsenic (As) through drinking water and food. The dietary intake of seafood is the major As exposure route in humans and can cause As-related adverse health effects including cancers. The aim of this study was to quantify potential cancer risks of As exposure for children and adults through seafood consumption. By coupling the age-specific physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and a Weibull-based dose-response function, a more accurate estimate of urinary arsenic metabolites could be achieved to better characterize potential cancer risks. The simulation results show that the proportion of inorganic As, monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in human urine are estimated to total 6.7, 26.9, and 66.4% for children, and 6.2, 27.4, and 66.4% for adults, respectively. The estimated median cumulative cancer incidence ratios were respectively 2.67x10(-6) and 3.83x10(-6) for children and adults, indicating a low cancer risk for local residents exposed to As through the consumption of seafood. However, it is necessary to incorporate other exposure routes into the model to make it more realistic. The methodology proposed here can not only be applied to calculate the concentrations of As metabolites in urine, but also to provide a direct estimation of adverse health effects caused by the calculated internal concentrations.

Arsenic cancer risk posed to human health from tilapia consumption in Taiwan

Ingested inorganic arsenic is strongly associated with a wide spectrum of adverse health outcomes. We propose a bioaccumulation and the Weibull model-based epidemiological framework to accurately estimate the reference arsenic intake guideline for tilapia consumption and tilapia-cultured water arsenic concentration based on bioaccumulations of tilapia and gender/age/cancer-specific epidemiological data from the arseniasis-endemic area in Taiwan. Our results show a positive relationship between arsenic exposure and age/gender- and cancer-specific cumulative incidence ratio using Weibull dose-response model. Based on male bladder cancer with an excess lifetime cancer risk of 10(-4), we estimate the reference tilapia inorganic arsenic guideline value to be 0.084 microg g(-1) dry wt based on the suggested daily consumption rate of 120 gd(-1). Our findings show that consumption of tilapia in a blackfoot disease (BFD)-endemic area poses no significant cancer risk (excess cancer risks ranging from 3.4 x 10(-5) to 9.3 x 10(-5)), implying that people in BFD-endemic areas are not readily associated with higher fatalities for bladder cancer exposed from tilapia consumption. We are confident that our model can be easily adapted for other aquaculture species, and encourage risk managers to use the model to evaluate the potential population-level long-term low-dose cancer risks. We conclude that, by integrating the bioaccumulation concept and epidemiological investigation of humans exposed to arsenic, we can provide a scientific basis for risk analysis to enhance risk management strategies.

A Weibull-PBPK model for assessing risk of arsenic-induced skin lesions in children

Chronic arsenic exposure and skin lesions (keratosis and hyperpigmentation) are inextricably linked. This paper was to quantify the children skin lesions risks and to further recommend safe drinking water arsenic standard based on reported arsenic epidemiological data. We linked the Weibull dose-response function and a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate safe drinking water arsenic concentrations and to perform the risk characterization. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) to assess the relative magnitude of the effect of the arsenic exposure on the likelihood of the prevalence of children skin lesions by calculating proposed Weibull-based prevalence ratios of exposed to control groups associated with the age group-specific PBPK model predicted dimethylarsinite (MMA(III)) levels in urine. Positive relationships between arsenic exposures and cumulative prevalence ratios of skin lesions were found using Weibull dose-response model (r2=0.91-0.96). We reported that the safe drinking water arsenic standards were recommended to be 2.2 and 1 microg/L for male and 6 and 2.8 microg/L for female in 0-6 and 7-18 years age groups, respectively, based on hyperpigmentation with an excess risk of 10(-3) for a 75 years lifetime exposure. Risk predictions indicate that estimated ORs have 95% confidence intervals of 1.33-5.12, 1.74-19.15, and 2.81-19.27 based on mean drinking water arsenic contents of 283.19, 282.65, and 468.81 microg/L, respectively, in West Bengal, India, Bangladesh, and southwestern Taiwan. Our findings also suggest that increasing urinary monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) levels are associated with an increase in risks of arsenic-induced children skin lesions.

Assessing and managing risks arising from exposure to endocrine-active chemicals

Managing risks to human health and the environment produced by endocrine-active chemicals (EAC) is dependent on sound principles of risk assessment and risk management, which need to be adapted to address the uncertainties in the state of the science of EAC. Quantifying EAC hazard identification, mechanisms of action, and dose-response curves is complicated by a range of chemical structure/toxicology classes, receptors and receptor subtypes, and nonlinear dose-response curves with low-dose effects. Advances in risk science including toxicogenomics and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) along with a return to the biological process of hormesis are proposed to complement existing risk assessment strategies, including that of the Endocrine Disruptor Screening and Testing Advisory Committee (EDSTAC 1998). EAC represents a policy issue that has captured the public's fears and concerns about environmental health. This overview describes the process of EAC risk assessment and risk management in the context of traditional risk management frameworks, with emphasis on the National Research Council Framework (1983), taking into consideration the strategies for EAC management in Canada, the United States, and the European Union.

Statistics for risk assessment of chemical carcinogens

Risk assessment is a scientific process of evaluation of potential health risks of chemical exposures to humans from available information. It involves analysis of the relationship between exposure and health related outcomes to derive an allowable exposure level. Because of lack of human exposure data, the major source of information for studying potential health effects of chemicals on humans is generally obtained from animal dose response experiments. Animal data are often evaluated in two aspects via statistical analysis: qualitative testing and quantitative estimation. The qualitative testing is to determine if the chemical causes an adverse health effect, i.e., if there is a statistically significant difference between treated and control animals. Quantitative estimation involves fitting a dose-response model to derive an allowable exposure level for humans. This paper reviews statistical principles and procedures for qualitative and quantitative approaches to human risk assessment.

On the use of hierarchical probabilistic models for characterizing and managing uncertainty in risk/safety assessment

A general probabilistically-based approach is proposed for both cancer and noncancer risk/safety assessments. The familiar framework of the original ADI/RfD formulation is used, substituting in the numerator a benchmark dose derived from a hierarchical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model and in the denominator a unitary uncertainty factor derived from a hierarchical animal/average human/sensitive human model. The empirical probability distributions of the numerator and denominator can be combined to produce an empirical human-equivalent distribution for an animal-derived benchmark dose in external-exposure units.