Group choice and individual choices: modeling human social behavior with the Ideal Free Distribution

Behavioral selection in structured populations

The multilevel model of behavioral selection (MLBS) by Borgstede and Eggert (Behav Process 186:104370. 10.1016/j.beproc.2021.104370 , 2021) provides a formal framework that integrates reinforcement learning with natural selection using an extended Price equation. However, the MLBS is so far only formulated for homogeneous populations, thereby excluding all sources of variation between individuals. This limitation is of primary theoretical concern because any application of the MLBS to real data requires to account for variation between individuals. In this paper, I extend the MLBS to account for inter-individual variation by dividing the population into homogeneous sub-populations and including class-specific reproductive values as weighting factors for an individual's evolutionary fitness. The resulting formalism closes the gap between the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral selection and the application of the theory to empirical data, which naturally includes inter-individual variation. Furthermore, the extended MLBS is used to establish an explicit connection between the dynamics of learning and the maximization of individual fitness. These results expand the scope of the MLBS as a general theoretical framework for the quantitative analysis of learning and evolution.

Individual differences in decision-making: evidence for the scarcity hypothesis from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

We report the results of a pre-registered analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing that was designed to test the hypothesis that economic scarcity is associated with individual differences in decision-making. We tested this hypothesis by comparing time preferences for different socio-economic groups and in geographical areas ranging from the most deprived to the least deprived in England using the English indices of multiple deprivation. The data supported this hypothesis: people in the most deprived areas were more likely to prefer smaller-sooner rewards than people from the least deprived areas. Similarly, people in technical or routine occupations tended to prefer smaller-sooner rewards than people in professional or intermediate occupations. In addition, we found that gender, cognitive function and subjective social status also predicted time preferences. We discuss these results in the context of theoretical models of scarcity-based models of choice behaviour and decision-making.

Evolution of heterogeneous perceptual limits and indifference in competitive foraging

The collective behaviour of animal and human groups emerges from the individual decisions and actions of their constituent members. Recent research has revealed many ways in which the behaviour of groups can be influenced by differences amongst their constituent individuals. The existence of individual differences that have implications for collective behaviour raises important questions. How are these differences generated and maintained? Are individual differences driven by exogenous factors, or are they a response to the social dilemmas these groups face? Here I consider the classic case of patch selection by foraging agents under conditions of social competition. I introduce a multilevel model wherein the perceptual sensitivities of agents evolve in response to their foraging success or failure over repeated patch selections. This model reveals a bifurcation in the population, creating a class of agents with no perceptual sensitivity. These agents exploit the social environment to avoid the costs of accurate perception, relying on other agents to make fitness rewards insensitive to the choice of foraging patch. This provides a individual-based evolutionary basis for models incorporating perceptual limits that have been proposed to explain observed deviations from the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) in empirical studies, while showing that the common assumption in such models that agents share identical sensory limits is likely false. Further analysis of the model shows how agents develop perceptual strategic niches in response to environmental variability. The emergence of agents insensitive to reward differences also has implications for societal resource allocation problems, including the use of financial and prediction markets as mechanisms for aggregating collective wisdom.

Probability Matching on a Simple Simulated Foraging Task: The Effects of Reward Persistence and Accumulation on Choice Behavior

Over a series of decisions between two or more probabilistically rewarded options, humans have a tendency to diversify their choices, even when this will lead to diminished overall reward. In the extreme case of probability matching, this tendency is expressed through allocation of choices in proportion to their likelihood of reward. Research suggests that this behaviour is an instinctive response, driven by heuristics, and that it may be overruled through the application of sufficient deliberation and self-control. However, if this is the case, then how and why did this response become established? The present study explores the hypothesis that diversification of choices, and potentially probability matching, represents an overextension of a historically normative foraging strategy. This is done through examining choice behaviour on a simple simulated foraging task, designed to model the natural process of accumulation of unharvested resources over time. Behaviour was then directly compared with that observed on a standard fixed probability task (cf. Ellerby & Tunney, 2017). Results indicated a convergence of choice patterns on the simulated foraging task, between participants who acted intuitively and those who took a more strategic approach. These findings are also compared with those of another similarly motivated study (Schulze, van Ravenzwaaij, & Newell, 2017).

Feeding ducks, bacterial chemotaxis, and the Gini index

Classic experiments on the distribution of ducks around separated food sources found consistency with the "ideal free" distribution in which the local population is proportional to the local supply rate. Motivated by this experiment and others, we examine the analogous problem in the microbial world: the distribution of chemotactic bacteria around multiple nearby food sources. In contrast to the optimization of uptake rate that may hold at the level of a single cell in a spatially varying nutrient field, nutrient consumption by a population of chemotactic cells will modify the nutrient field, and the uptake rate will generally vary throughout the population. Through a simple model we study the distribution of resource uptake in the presence of chemotaxis, consumption, and diffusion of both bacteria and nutrients. Borrowing from the field of theoretical economics, we explore how the Gini index can be used as a means to quantify the inequalities of uptake. The redistributive effect of chemotaxis can lead to a phenomenon we term "chemotactic levelling," and the influence of these results on population fitness are briefly considered.

A portable system for studying discrete-trial group choice

Whether groups of people or animals behave optimally in relation to resources is an issue of interest to psychology, ecology, and economics. In behavioral ecology, the simplest model of optimal group choice is the ideal free distribution (IFD). The IFD model has been tested in humans with discrete or continuous inputs and through manual or automated procedures (e.g., Kraft, Baum, & Burge, 2002; Madden, Peden, & Yamagushi, 2002). Manual procedures tend to be time consuming, however, whereas automated procedures typically require access to a computer network. In this article, we describe a new automated system for discrete-trial tests of the IFD model. Our protocol involves a single computer connected to a digital projector (for stimulus presentation) and a network of gamepads (for registering choices). The system is comparatively inexpensive, easy to install, easy to transport, and it permits the automated collection of group data in minimal time. We show that the data generated through this protocol are comparable to those previously reported in the IFD literature.

Effects of predictability and competition on group and individual choice in a free-ranging foraging environment

The present study examined the social foraging of rats in an open arena. The relative quantity of food varied across two food sources, or "patches." Five food quantity ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:8, 8:1, 2:1) were presented in a series of 30-min sessions. Ratios varied randomly across 6-min components within sessions (Phase 1), or in a consistent order across sessions (Phase 2). Group and individual preferences were well described by the ideal free distribution and the generalized matching law, respectively, with evidence of undermatching at both group and individual levels. Sensitivity of individual and collective behavior to the relative quantities of food was higher in Phase 2 than in Phase 1. Competitiveness rankings, assessed before and after experimental sessions by delivering food in rapid succession from a single feeder, was positively related to sensitivity values in Phase 1, but less consistently so in Phase 2. This study illustrates a promising experimental method for investigating foraging in a social context.

Human group behavior: the ideal free distribution in a three-patch situation

A group of 15 college students was exposed to repeated trials of a task in which money was available for choosing among three colors (blue, red, and green). The amount of winning tokens for each color was varied across phases to test whether group distribution would track the ratio of winning tokens between patches. Confirming previous reports on ideal free performance in humans, group choice proved sensitive to the available resources but tended to undermatch the ratio of winning tokens. The difference-equalization rule of Sokolowski, Tonneau, and Freixa i Baqué [Psychonom. Bull. Rev. 6 (1999) 157] gave a satisfactory fit to the data.

Temporal discounting predicts individual competitive success in a human analogue of group foraging

Twenty groups of college undergraduates (N=9-12) participated in a discrete-trials analogue of group foraging in which points, exchangeable for course credit, were the resource to be acquired. Group matching of foragers to patch resource availability was well described by the generalized Ideal Free Distribution, with undermatching (imperfect sensitivity to resource differentials) the norm. Individuals differed on several measures of competitive success, and a measure of temporal discounting (TD) accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in these measures. Tendencies in switch patterns and visit durations differed for the most-impulsive and least-impulsive individuals in a fashion that was consistent with a TD interpretation. When competitive weights, defined in terms of TD scores, were substituted for counts of individuals in the generalized Ideal Free Distribution, group-matching slopes more closely approximated perfect sensitivity than in standard analyses. This was true for groups incorporating all impulsive individuals, all non-impulsive individuals, or a broad range of TD scores. The results suggest that well-understood individual psychological processes are associated with competitive ability in group choice.