Natural history of breast cancers detected in the Swedish mammography screening programme: a cohort study

Modeling the multi-state natural history of rare diseases with heterogeneous individual patient data: A simulation study

Multi-state survival models are used to represent the natural history of a disease, forming the basis of a health technology assessment comparing a novel treatment to current practice. Constructing such models for rare diseases is problematic, since evidence sources are typically much sparser and more heterogeneous. This simulation study investigated different one-stage and two-stage approaches to meta-analyzing individual patient data (IPD) in a multi-state survival setting when the number and size of studies being meta-analyzed are small. The objective was to assess methods of different complexity to see when they are accurate, when they are inaccurate and when they struggle to converge due to the sparsity of data. Biologically plausible multi-state IPD were simulated from study- and transition-specific hazard functions. One-stage frailty and two-stage stratified models were estimated, and compared to a base case model that did not account for study heterogeneity. Convergence and the bias/coverage of population-level transition probabilities to, and lengths of stay in, each state were used to assess model performance. A real-world application to Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, a neuromuscular rare disease, was conducted, and a software demonstration is provided. Models not accounting for study heterogeneity were consistently out-performed by two-stage models. Frailty models struggled to converge, particularly in scenarios of low heterogeneity, and predictions from models that did converge were also subject to bias. Stratified models may be better suited to meta-analyzing disparate sources of IPD in rare disease natural history/economic modeling, as they converge more consistently and produce less biased predictions of lengths of stay.

Non-progressive breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening: a population study

BACKGROUND

Some breast carcinomas detected at screening, especially ductal carcinoma in situ, may have limited potential for progression to symptomatic disease. To determine non-progression is a challenge, but if all screening-detected breast tumors eventually reach a clinical stage, the cumulative incidence at a reasonably high age would be similar for women with or without screening, conditional on the women being alive.

METHODS

Using high-quality population data with 24 years of follow-up from the gradually introduced BreastScreen Norway program, we studied whether all breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening 50-69 years of age would progress to clinical symptoms within 85 years of age. First, we estimated the incidence rates of breast carcinomas by age in scenarios with or without screening, based on an extended age-period-cohort incidence model. Next, we estimated the frequency of non-progressive tumors among screening-detected cases, by calculating the difference in the cumulative rate of breast carcinomas between the screening and non-screening scenarios at 85 years of age.

RESULTS

Among women who attended BreastScreen Norway from the age of 50 to 69 years, we estimated that 1.1% of the participants were diagnosed with a breast carcinoma without the potential to progress to symptomatic disease by 85 years of age. This proportion of potentially non-progressive tumors corresponded to 15.7% [95% CI 3.3, 27.1] of breast carcinomas detected at screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that nearly one in six breast carcinomas detected at screening may be non-progressive.

Complete Spontaneous Regression of Colorectal Cancer: A Report of Two Cases

Spontaneous regression of cancer is rare, and rarer still in colorectal cancer. We present a report of two cases of spontaneous regression of histologically proven proximal colonic cancers described in detail, alongside endoscopic, histological, and radiological images. We discussed the potential mechanisms by reviewing previous literature.

A mechanistic analysis of spontaneous cancer remission phenomenon: identification of genomic basis and effector biomolecules for therapeutic applicability

Based on the well-documented studies, numerous tumors episodically regress permanently without treatment. Knowing the host tissue-initiated causative factors would offer considerable translational applicability, as a permanent regression process may be therapeutically replicated on patients. For this, we developed a systems biological formulation of the regression process with experimental verification and identified the relevant candidate biomolecules for therapeutic utility. We devised a cellular kinetics-based quantitative model of tumor extinction in terms of the temporal behavior of three main tumor-lysis entities: DNA blockade factor, cytotoxic T-lymphocyte and interleukin-2. As a case study, we analyzed the time-wise biopsy and microarrays of spontaneously regressing melanoma and fibrosarcoma tumors in mammalian/human hosts. We analyzed the differentially expressed genes (DEGs), signaling pathways, and bioinformatics framework of regression. Additionally, prospective biomolecules that could cause complete tumor regression were investigated. The tumor regression process follows a first-order cellular dynamics with a small negative bias, as verified by experimental fibrosarcoma regression; the bias is necessary to eliminate the residual tumor. We identified 176 upregulated and 116 downregulated DEGs, and enrichment analysis showed that the most significant were downregulated cell-division genes: TOP2A-KIF20A-KIF23-CDK1-CCNB1. Moreover, Topoisomerase-IIA inhibition might actuate spontaneous regression, with collateral confirmation provided from survival and genomic analysis of melanoma patients. Candidate molecules such as Dexrazoxane/Mitoxantrone, with interleukin-2 and antitumor lymphocytes, may potentially replicate permanent tumor regression process of melanoma. To conclude, episodic permanent tumor regression is a unique biological reversal process of malignant progression, and signaling pathway understanding, with candidate biomolecules, may plausibly therapeutically replicate the regression process on tumors clinically.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13205-023-03515-0.

Computational systems biology approach for permanent tumor elimination and normal tissue protection using negative biasing: Experimental validation in malignant melanoma as case study

Complete spontaneous tumor regression (without treatment) is well documented to occur in animals and humans as epidemiological analysis show, whereby the malignancy is permanently eliminated. We have developed a novel computational systems biology model for this unique phenomenon to furnish insight into the possibility of therapeutically replicating such regression processes on tumors clinically, without toxic side effects. We have formulated oncological informatics approach using cell-kinetics coupled differential equations while protecting normal tissue. We investigated three main tumor-lysis components: (ⅰ) DNA blockade factors, (ⅱ) Interleukin-2 (IL-2), and (ⅲ) Cytotoxic T-cells (CD8⁺ T). We studied the temporal variations of these factors, utilizing preclinical experimental investigations on malignant tumors, using mammalian melanoma microarray and histiocytoma immunochemical assessment. We found that permanent tumor regression can occur by: 1) Negative-Bias shift in population trajectory of tumor cells, eradicating them under first-order asymptotic kinetics, and 2) Temporal alteration in the three antitumor components (DNA replication-blockade, Antitumor T-lymphocyte, IL-2), which are respectively characterized by the following patterns: (a) Unimodal Inverted-U function, (b) Bimodal M-function, (c) Stationary-step function. These provide a time-wise orchestrated tri-phasic cytotoxic profile. We have also elucidated gene-expression levels corresponding to the above three components: (ⅰ) DNA-damage G2/M checkpoint regulation [genes: CDC2-CHEK], (ⅱ) Chemokine signaling: IL-2/15 [genes: IL2RG-IKT3], (ⅲ) T-lymphocyte signaling (genes: TRGV5-CD28). All three components quantitatively followed the same activation profiles predicted by our computational model (Smirnov-Kolmogorov statistical test satisfied, α = 5%). We have shown that the genes CASP7-GZMB are signatures of Negative-bias dynamics, enabling eradication of the residual tumor. Using the negative-biasing principle, we have furnished the dose-time profile of equivalent therapeutic agents (DNA-alkylator, IL-2, T-cell input) so that melanoma tumor may therapeutically undergo permanent extinction by replicating the spontaneous tumor regression dynamics.

Reimagining Cancer: Moving from the Cellular to the Tissue Level

The current universally accepted explanation of cancer origin and behavior, the somatic mutation theory, is cell-centered and rooted in perturbation of gene function independent of the external environmental context. However, tumors consist of various epithelial and stromal cell populations temporally and spatially organized into an integrated neoplastic community, and they can have properties similar to normal tissues. Accordingly, we review specific normal cellular and tissue traits and behaviors with adaptive temporal and spatial self-organization that result in ordered patterns and structures. A few recent theories have described these tissue-level cancer behaviors, invoking a conceptual shift from the cellular level and highlighting the need for methodologic approaches based on the analysis of complex systems. We propose extending the analytical approach of regulatory networks to the tissue level and introduce the concept of "cancer attractors." These concepts require reevaluation of cancer imaging and investigational approaches and challenge the traditional reductionist approach of cancer molecular biology.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Mammography Beyond Age 75 Years : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of screening mammography beyond age 75 years remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending mammography to age 80, 85, or 90 years according to comorbidity burden.

DESIGN

Markov microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.

TARGET POPULATION

U.S. women aged 65 to 90 years in groups defined by Charlson comorbidity score (CCS).

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

National health payer.

INTERVENTION

Screening mammography to age 75, 80, 85, or 90 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Breast cancer death, survival, and costs.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Extending biennial mammography from age 75 to 80 years averted 1.7, 1.4, and 1.0 breast cancer deaths and increased days of life gained by 5.8, 4.2, and 2.7 days per 1000 women for comorbidity scores of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Annual mammography beyond age 75 years was not cost-effective, but extending biennial mammography to age 80 years was ($54 000, $65 000, and $85 000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained for women with CCSs of 0, 1, and ≥2, respectively). Overdiagnosis cases were double the number of deaths averted from breast cancer.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Costs per QALY gained were sensitive to changes in invasive cancer incidence and shift of breast cancer stage with screening mammography.

LIMITATION

No randomized controlled trials of screening mammography beyond age 75 years are available to provide model parameter inputs.

CONCLUSION

Although annual mammography is not cost-effective, biennial screening mammography to age 80 years is; however, the absolute number of deaths averted is small, especially for women with comorbidities. Women considering screening beyond age 75 years should weigh the potential harms of overdiagnosis versus the potential benefit of averting death from breast cancer.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute and National Institutes of Health.

Screen-detected breast cancer is associated with better prognosis and survival compared to self-detected/symptomatic cases in a Chilean cohort of female patients

PURPOSE

The implementation of national breast cancer (BC) screening programs in Latin America has been rather inconsistent. Instead, most countries have opted for "opportunistic" mammogram screenings on the population at risk. Our study assessed and compared epidemiological, clinical factors, and survival rates associated with BC detected by screening (SDBC) or self-detected/symptomatic (non-SDBC) in Chilean female patients.

METHODS

Registry-based cohort study that included non-metastatic BC (stage I/II/III) patients diagnosed between 1993 and 2020, from a public hospital (PH) and a private university cancer center (PC). Epidemiological and clinical data were obtained from medical records.

RESULTS

A total of 4559 patients were included. Most patients (55%; n = 2507) came from PH and were diagnosed by signs/symptoms (non-SDBC; n = 3132, 68.6%); these patients displayed poorer overall (OS) and invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) compared to SDBC. Importantly, the proportion of stage I and "luminal" BC (HR + /HER2 -) were significantly higher in SDBC vs. non-SDBC. Finally, using a stage/subset-stratified age/insurance-adjusted model, we found that non-SDBC cases are at a higher risk of death (HR:1.75; p < 0.001). In contrast, patients with PC health insurance have a lower risk of death (HR: 0.60; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We confirm previous studies that report better prognosis/survival on SDBC patients. This is probably due to a higher proportion of stage I and luminal-A cases versus non-SDBC. In turn, the survival benefit observed in patients with PC health insurance might be attributed to a larger proportion of SDBC. Our data support the implementation of a systematic BC screening program in Chile to improve patient prognosis and survival rates.

Late Recurrence in Breast Cancer: To Run after the Oxen or to Try to Close the Barn?

Simple Summary

The initial treatment of early breast cancer has achieved important clinical results over time. However, late recurrences after many years of disease-free survival remain an open question, which has recently attracted the attention of a few researchers. The authors of this commentary suggest that the approach emerging from scientific meetings regarding this subject is marred by the lack of attention to recent clinical and laboratory data. The role of tumor dormancy and the dynamics of disease recurrence are presented here and a more general reflection on therapeutic approaches to cancer is proposed.

Abstract

The problem of late recurrence in breast cancer has recently gained attention and was also addressed in an international workshop held in Toronto (ON, Canada), in which several aspects of the question were examined. This Commentary offers a few considerations, which may be useful for the ongoing investigations. A few premises are discussed: (a) clinical recurrences, especially the late ones, imply periods of tumor dormancy; (b) a structured pattern of distant metastases appearance is detectable in both early and late follow-up times; (c) the current general paradigm underlying neoplastic treatments, i.e., that killing all cancer cells is the only way to control the disease, which is strictly sprouting from the somatic mutation theory, should be re-considered. Finally, a few research approaches are suggested.

One in Four Dies of Cancer. Questions About the Epidemiology of Malignant Tumours

Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally. Malignant tumours are responsible for about 9.6 million deaths in 2018 (Ritchie H (2019) How many people in the world die from cancer? https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-in-the-world-die-from-cancer ). Worldwide, about 1 in 6 deaths is due to cancer. This confronts researches with the question of their origin and doctors with treatment options. It is common sense that great efforts should be done in order to reduce the number of cancer-specific deaths. In recent years, in lots of countries a variety of cancer screening programs have been developed, investigated and improved. The basic idea of this approach seems to be quite simple: Tumours will be detected at a very early stage when patients do not yet feel clinical symptoms. Thus, using an appropriate therapy, progression of the disease can be prevented and, concerning a whole population, disease-specific mortality should be reduced. Actually, after the introduction of screening programs, an increasing number of new cancer cases can be observed associated with an apparent reduction of the case fatality rate (i.e. the proportion of deaths due to cancer). Partly, the increasing number of cancers may be explained by the fact that people have a higher life expectancy. Under this aspect, the decreased case fatality rate could be considered as a success which may be attributed to screening efforts. However, there is still insufficient evidence affirming benefits of screening programs for crucial outcomes, i.e. all-cause mortality. In this narrative review, the phenomenon that probabilities and risks are rather often interpreted in an inadmissible way will be described. Furthermore, conceptual issues and inconsistencies between evidence and opinion about screening will be explored.

Estimating the natural progression of non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer lesions using screening data

OBJECTIVES

In addition to invasive breast cancer, mammography screening often detects preinvasive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions. The natural progression of DCIS is largely unknown, leading to uncertainty regarding treatment. The natural history of invasive breast cancer has been studied using screening data. DCIS modeling is more complicated because lesions might progress to clinical DCIS, preclinical invasive cancer, or may also regress to a state undetectable by screening. We have here developed a Markov model for DCIS progression, building on the established invasive breast cancer model.

METHODS

We present formulas for the probability of DCIS detection by time since last screening under a Markov model of DCIS progression. Progression rates were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using BreastScreen Norway data from 1995-2002 for 336,533 women (including 399 DCIS cases) aged 50-69. As DCIS incidence varies by age, county, and mammography modality (digital vs. analog film), a Poisson regression approach was used to align the input data.

RESULTS

Estimated mean sojourn time in preclinical, screening-detectable DCIS phase was 3.1 years (95% confidence interval: 1.3, 7.6) with a screening sensitivity of 60% (95% confidence interval: 32%, 93%). No DCIS was estimated to be non-progressive.

CONCLUSION

Most preclinical DCIS lesions progress or regress with a moderate sojourn time in the screening-detectable phase. While DCIS mean sojourn time could be deduced from DCIS data, any estimate of preclinical DCIS progressing to invasive breast cancer must include data on invasive cancers to avoid strong, probably unrealistic, assumptions.

Delayed breast cancer diagnosis after repeated recall at biennial screening mammography: an observational follow-up study from the Netherlands

Background

Delay in detection of breast cancer may worsen tumour characteristics, with progression of tumour size and a higher risk of metastatic lymph nodes. The purpose of this study was to investigate delayed breast cancer diagnosis after repeated recall for the same mammographic abnormality at screening.

Methods

This was a retrospective study performed in two cohorts of women enrolled in a mammography screening programme in the Netherlands. All women aged 50−75 who underwent biennial screening mammography either between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2006 (cohort 1) or between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2016 (cohort 2) were included.

Results

The cohorts showed no difference in proportions of women with delayed breast cancer diagnosis of at least 2 years (2.2% versus 2.8%, P = 0.29). Most delays were caused by incorrect BI-RADS classifications after recall (74.2%). An increase in mean tumour size was seen when comparing sizes at initial false-negative recall and at diagnosis of breast cancer (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The proportion of women with a long delay in breast cancer confirmation following repeated recall at screening mammography has not decreased during 20 years of screening. These delays lead to larger tumour size at detection and may negatively influence prognosis.

Evaluation of the overdiagnosis in breast screening programmes using a Monte Carlo simulation tool: a study of the influence of the parameters defining the programme configuration

OBJECTIVES

To build up and test a Monte Carlo simulation procedure for the investigation of overdiagnosis in breast screening programmes (BSPs).

DESIGN

A Monte Carlo tool previously developed has been adapted for obtaining the quantities of interest in order to determine the overdiagnosis: the annual and cumulative number of cancers detected by screening, plus interval cancers, for a population following the BSP, and detected clinically for the same population in the absence of screening. Overdiagnosis is obtained by comparing these results in a direct way.

RESULTS

Overdiagnosis between 7% and 20%, depending on the specific configuration of the programme, have been found. These range of values is in agreement with some of the results available for actual BSPs. In the cases analysed, a reduction of 11% at most has been found in the number of invasive tumours detected by screening in comparison to those clinically detected in the control population. It has been possible to establish that overdiagnosis is almost entirely linked to ductal carcinoma in situ tumours.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of Monte Carlo tools may facilitate the analysis of overdiagnosis in actual BSPs, permitting to address the role played by various quantities of relevance for them.

Joint models of tumour size and lymph node spread for incident breast cancer cases in the presence of screening

Continuous growth models show great potential for analysing cancer screening data. We recently described such a model for studying breast cancer tumour growth based on modelling tumour size at diagnosis, as a function of screening history, detection mode, and relevant patient characteristics. In this article, we describe how the approach can be extended to jointly model tumour size and number of lymph node metastases at diagnosis. We propose a new class of lymph node spread models which are biologically motivated and describe how they can be extended to incorporate random effects to allow for heterogeneity in underlying rates of spread. Our final model provides a dramatically better fit to empirical data on 1860 incident breast cancer cases than models in current use. We validate our lymph node spread model on an independent data set consisting of 3961 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

[Discrepancies and overdiagnosis in breast cancer organized screening. A "methodology" systematic review]

BACKGROUND

The risk-benefit ratio of breast cancer organized screening is the focus of much scientific controversy, especially about overdiagnosis. The aim of this study was to relate methodological discrepancies to variations in rates of overdiagnosis to help build future decision aids and to better communicate with patients.

METHODS

A systematic review of methodology was conducted by two investigators who searched Medline and Cochrane databases from 01/01/2004 to 12/31/2016. Results were restricted to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies in French or English that examined the question of the overdiagnosis computation.

RESULTS

Twenty-three observational studies and four RCTs were analyzed. The methods used comparisons of annual or cumulative incidence rates (age-cohort model) in populations invited to screen versus non-invited populations. Lead time and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) were often taken into account. Some studies used statistical modeling based on the natural history of breast cancer and gradual screening implementation. Adjustments for lead time lowered the rate of overdiagnosis. Rate discrepancies, ranging from 1 to 15 % for some authors and around 30 % for others, could be explained by the hypotheses accepted concerning very slow growing tumors or tumors that regress spontaneously.

CONCLUSION

Apparently, research has to be centered on the natural history of breast cancer in order to provide responses concerning the questions raised by the overdiagnosis controversy.

Evaluating different breast tumor progression models using screening data

Background

Mammography screening is used to detect breast cancer at an early treatable stage, reducing breast cancer mortality. Traditionally, breast cancer has been seen as a disease with only progressive lesions, and here we examine the validity of this assumption by testing if incidence levels after introducing mammography screening can be reproduced assuming only progressive tumors.

Methods

Breast cancer incidence data 1990–2009 obtained from the initially screened Norwegian counties (Akershus, Oslo, Rogaland and Hordaland) was included, covering the time-period before, during and after the introduction of mammography screening. From 1996 women aged 50–69 were invited for biennial public screening. Using estimates of tumor growth and screening sensitivity based on pre-screening and prevalence screening data (1990–1998), we simulated incidence levels during the following period (1999–2009).

Results

The simulated incidence levels during the period with repeated screenings were markedly below the observed levels. The results were robust to changes in model parameters. Adjusting for hormone replacement therapy use, we obtained levels closer to the observed levels. However, there was still a marked gap, and only by assuming some tumors that undergo regressive changes or enter a markedly less detectable state, was our model able to reproduce the observed incidence levels.

Conclusions

Models with strictly progressive tumors are only able to partly explain the changes in incidence levels observed after screening introduction in the initially screened Norwegian counties. More complex explanations than a time shift in detection of future clinical cancers seem to be needed to reproduce the incidence trends, questioning the basis for many over-diagnosis calculations. As data are not randomized, similar studies in other populations are wanted to exclude effect of unknown confounders.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4130-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinicopathological characteristics and long-term prognosis of screening detected non-palpable breast cancer by ultrasound in hospital-based Chinese population (2001-2014)

Purpose

The mainstay modality of breast cancer screening in China is the hospital-based opportunistic screening among asymptomatic self-referred women. There is little data about the ultrasound (US) detected non-palpable breast cancer (NPBC) in Chinese population.

Methods

We analyzed 699 consecutive NPBC from 1.8-2.3 million asymptomatic women from 2001 to 2014, including 572 US-detected NPBC from 3,786 US-positive women and 127 mammography (MG) detected NPBC from 788 MG-positive women. The clinicopathological features, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between the US- and MG-detected NPBC. Prognostic factors of NPBC were identified.

Results

Compared to MG, US could detect more invasive NPBC (83.6% vs 54.3%, p<0.001), lymph node positive NPBC (19.1% vs 10.2%, p=0.018), lower grade (24.8% vs 16.5%, p<0.001), multifocal (19.2% vs 6.3%, p<0.001), PR positive (71.4% vs 66.9%, p=0.041), Her2 negative (74.3% vs 54.3%, p<0.001), Ki67 high (defined as >14%, 46.3% vs 37.0%, p=0.031) cancers and more NPBC who received chemotherapy (40.7% vs 21.3%, p<0.001). There was no significant difference in 10-year DFS and OS between US-detected vs MG-detected NPBC, DCIS and invasive NPBC. For all NPBC and the US-detected NPBC, the common DFS-predictors included pT, pN, p53 and bilateral cancers.

Conclusion

US could detect more invasive, node-positive, multifocal NPBC in hospital-based asymptomatic Chinese female, who could achieve comparable 10-year DFS and OS as MG-detected NPBC. US would not delay early detection of NPBC with improved cost-effectiveness, thus could serve as the feasible initial imaging modality in hospital-based opportunistic screening among Chinese women.

Mammography screening: A major issue in medicine

Breast cancer mortality is declining in most high-income countries. The role of mammography screening in these declines is much debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the incidence of number of advanced cancers with poor prognosis, while therapies and patient management impact cancer mortality through decreasing the fatality of cancers. The effectiveness of cancer screening is the ability of a screening method to curb the incidence of advanced cancers in populations. Methods for evaluating cancer screening effectiveness are based on the monitoring of age-adjusted incidence rates of advanced cancers that should decrease after the introduction of screening. Likewise, cancer-specific mortality rates should decline more rapidly in areas with screening than in areas without or with lower levels of screening but where patient management is similar. These two criteria have provided evidence that screening for colorectal and cervical cancer contributes to decreasing the mortality associated with these two cancers. In contrast, screening for neuroblastoma in children was discontinued in the early 2000s because these two criteria were not met. In addition, overdiagnosis - i.e. the detection of non-progressing occult neuroblastoma that would not have been life-threatening during the subject's lifetime - is a major undesirable consequence of screening. Accumulating epidemiological data show that in populations where mammography screening has been widespread for a long time, there has been no or only a modest decline in the incidence of advanced cancers, including that of de novo metastatic (stage IV) cancers at diagnosis. Moreover, breast cancer mortality reductions are similar in areas with early introduction and high penetration of screening and in areas with late introduction and low penetration of screening. Overdiagnosis is commonplace, representing 20% or more of all breast cancers among women invited to screening and 30-50% of screen-detected cancers. Overdiagnosis leads to overtreatment and inflicts considerable physical, psychological and economic harm on many women. Overdiagnosis has also exerted considerable disruptive effects on the interpretation of clinical outcomes expressed in percentages (instead of rates) or as overall survival (instead of mortality rates or stage-specific survival). Rates of radical mastectomies have not decreased following the introduction of screening and keep rising in some countries (e.g. the United States of America (USA)). Hence, the epidemiological picture of mammography screening closely resembles that of screening for neuroblastoma. Reappraisals of Swedish mammography trials demonstrate that the design and statistical analysis of these trials were different from those of all trials on screening for cancers other than breast cancer. We found compelling indications that these trials overestimated reductions in breast cancer mortality associated with screening, in part because of the statistical analyses themselves, in part because of improved therapies and underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death in screening groups. In this regard, Swedish trials should publish the stage-specific breast cancer mortality rates for the screening and control groups separately. Results of the Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial are biased because of the underreporting of breast cancer cases and deaths that occurred in women who did not participate in screening. After 17 years of follow-up, the United Kingdom (UK) Age Trial showed no benefit from mammography screening starting at age 39-41. Until around 2005, most proponents of breast screening backed the monitoring of changes in advanced cancer incidence and comparative studies on breast cancer mortality for the evaluation of breast screening effectiveness. However, in an attempt to mitigate the contradictions between results of mammography trials and population data, breast-screening proponents have elected to change the criteria for the evaluation of cancer screening effectiveness, giving precedence to incidence-based mortality (IBM) and case-control studies. But practically all IBM studies on mammography screening have a strong ecological component in their design. The two IBM studies done in Norway that meet all methodological requirements do not document significant reductions in breast cancer mortality associated with mammography screening. Because of their propensity to exaggerate the health benefits of screening, case-control studies may demonstrate that mammography screening could reduce the risk of death from diseases other than breast cancer. Numerous statistical model approaches have been conducted for estimating the contributions of screening and of patient management to reductions in breast cancer mortality. Unverified assumptions are needed for running these models. For instance, many models assume that if screening had not occurred, the majority of screen-detected asymptomatic cancers would have progressed to symptomatic advanced cancers. This assumption is not grounded in evidence because a large proportion of screen-detected breast cancers represent overdiagnosis and hence non-progressing tumours. The accumulation of population data in well-screened populations diminishes the relevance of model approaches. The comparison of the performance of different screening modalities - e.g. mammography, digital mammography, ultrasonography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), three-dimensional tomosynthesis (TDT) - concentrates on detection rates, which is the ability of a technique to detect more cancers than other techniques. However, a greater detection rate tells little about the capacity to prevent interval and advanced cancers and could just reflect additional overdiagnosis. Studies based on the incidence of advanced cancers and on the evaluation of overdiagnosis should be conducted before marketing new breast-imaging technologies. Women at high risk of breast cancer (i.e. 30% lifetime risk and more), such as women with BRCA1/2 mutations, require a close breast surveillance. MRI is the preferred imaging method until more radical risk-reduction options are eventually adopted. For women with an intermediate risk of breast cancer (i.e. 10-29% lifetime risk), including women with extremely dense breast at mammography, there is no evidence that more frequent mammography screening or screening with other modalities actually reduces the risk of breast cancer death. A plethora of epidemiological data shows that, since 1985, progress in the management of breast cancer patients has led to marked reductions in stage-specific breast cancer mortality, even for patients with disseminated disease (i.e. stage IV cancer) at diagnosis. In contrast, the epidemiological data point to a marginal contribution of mammography screening in the decline in breast cancer mortality. Moreover, the more effective the treatments, the less favourable are the harm-benefit balance of screening mammography. New, effective methods for breast screening are needed, as well as research on risk-based screening strategies.

Prevalence of incidental breast cancer and precursor lesions in autopsy studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Autopsy studies demonstrate the prevalence pool of incidental breast cancer in the population, but estimates are uncertain due to small numbers in any primary study. We aimed to conduct a systematic review of autopsy studies to estimate the prevalence of incidental breast cancer and precursors.

Methods

Relevant articles were identified through searching PubMed and Embase from inception up to April 2016, and backward and forward citations. We included autopsy studies of women with no history of breast pathology, which included systematic histological examination of at least one breast, and which allowed calculation of the prevalence of incidental breast cancer or precursor lesions. Data were pooled using logistic regression models with random intercepts (non-linear mixed models).

Results

We included 13 studies from 1948 to 2010, contributing 2363 autopsies with 99 cases of incidental cancer or precursor lesions. More thorough histological examination (≥20 histological sections) was a strong predictor of incidental in-situ cancer and atypical hyperplasia (OR = 126·8 and 21·3 respectively, p < 0·001), but not invasive cancer (OR = 1·1, p = 0·75). The estimated mean prevalence of incidental cancer or precursor lesion was 19·5% (0·85% invasive cancer + 8·9% in-situ cancer + 9·8% atypical hyperplasia).

Conclusion

Our systematic review in ten countries over six decades found that incidental detection of cancer in situ and breast cancer precursors is common in women not known to have breast disease during life. The large prevalence pool of undetected cancer in-situ and atypical hyperplasia in these autopsy studies suggests screening programs should be cautious about introducing more sensitive tests that may increase detection of these lesions.

The INTRABEAM® Photon Radiotherapy System for the adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Initial treatment for early breast cancer is usually either breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy. After BCS, whole-breast external beam radiotherapy (WB-EBRT) is the standard of care. A potential alternative to post-operative WB-EBRT is intraoperative radiation therapy delivered by the INTRABEAM(®) Photon Radiotherapy System (Carl Zeiss, Oberkochen, Germany) to the tissue adjacent to the resection cavity at the time of surgery.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of INTRABEAM for the adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer during surgical removal of the tumour.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library, were searched from inception to March 2014 for English-language articles. Bibliographies of articles, systematic reviews, clinical guidelines and the manufacturer's submission were also searched. The advisory group was contacted to identify additional evidence.

METHODS

Systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness were conducted. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for eligibility. Inclusion criteria were applied to full texts of retrieved papers by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer. Data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer, and differences in opinion were resolved through discussion at each stage. Clinical effectiveness studies were included if they were carried out in patients with early operable breast cancer. The intervention was the INTRABEAM system, which was compared with WB-EBRT, and study designs were randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Controlled clinical trials could be considered if data from available RCTs were incomplete (e.g. absence of data on outcomes of interest). A cost-utility decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the costs, benefits and cost-effectiveness of INTRABEAM compared with WB-EBRT for early operable breast cancer.

RESULTS

One non-inferiority RCT, TARGeted Intraoperative radioTherapy Alone (TARGIT-A), met the inclusion criteria for the review. The review found that local recurrence was slightly higher following INTRABEAM than WB-EBRT, but the difference did not exceed the 2.5% non-inferiority margin providing INTRABEAM was given at the same time as BCS. Overall survival was similar with both treatments. Statistically significant differences in complications were found for the occurrence of wound seroma requiring more than three aspirations (more frequent in the INTRABEAM group) and for a Radiation Therapy Oncology Group toxicity score of grade 3 or 4 (less frequent in the INTRABEAM group). Cost-effectiveness base-case analysis indicates that INTRABEAM is less expensive but also less effective than WB-EBRT because it is associated with lower total costs but fewer total quality-adjusted life-years gained. However, sensitivity analyses identified four model parameters that can cause a switch in the treatment option that is considered cost-effective.

LIMITATIONS

The base-case result from the model is subject to uncertainty because the disease progression parameters are largely drawn from the single available RCT. The RCT median follow-up of 2 years 5 months may be inadequate, particularly as the number of participants with local recurrence is low. The model is particularly sensitive to this parameter.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

A significant investment in INTRABEAM equipment and staff training (clinical and non-clinical) would be required to make this technology available across the NHS. Longer-term follow-up data from the TARGIT-A trial and analysis of registry data are required as results are currently based on a small number of events and economic modelling results are uncertain.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013006720.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. Note that the economic model associated with this document is protected by intellectual property rights, which are owned by the University of Southampton. Anyone wishing to modify, adapt, translate, reverse engineer, decompile, dismantle or create derivative work based on the economic model must first seek the agreement of the property owners.

Epidemiologic evidence of slow growing, nonprogressive or regressive breast cancer: A systematic review

The general aim of this systematic review is to mitigate breast cancer (BC) overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The specific aim is to summarize available data on the occurrence and features of indolent invasive or in situ (DCIS) BC, and precisely survival of untreated cases, prevalence of occult cancers found in autopsies, frequency of regressive BC. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library were systematically searched up to 3/31/2014. Eligibility criteria were: cohort studies, case-control studies, uncontrolled case series assessing survival in women with a diagnosis of BC who did not receive treatment compared to treated women; case series of autopsies estimating the prevalence of undiagnosed BC; cohort studies, case-control studies, uncontrolled case series, case reports assessing the occurrence of spontaneous regression of BC in women with a confirmed histology diagnosis. Untreated BC: 8 cohort studies and 12 case series (3593 BC) were included. In three controlled cohort studies (diagnoses 1978-2006), the 5-years overall survival was 19-43%. Occult BC: 8 case series (2279 autopsies) were included. The prevalence of invasive BC undiagnosed during lifetime range was 0-1.5%, while for DCIS the range was 0.2-14.7%. Spontaneous regression: 2 cohort studies, 3 case reports, 1 case series included. In the cohort studies the relative risk of regression for screen detected compared with nonscreened BC was estimated as 1.2 and 1.1. It seems plausible that around 10% of invasive BC are not symptomatic during life, and that one fith of BC patients if untreated would be alive after 5 years. Around 1 of 10 screen-detected BC may regress according two studies.

Cancer as a changed tissue's way of life (when to treat, when to watch and when to think)

The profound scientific and commercial success of molecular biology, the progress of 'cancer gene' investigation technologies, together, pushed forward the postulate that genes explain 'everything'. Yet, during the last few years the microenvironments of solid tumors have emerged as key modulators of initiation, progression and metastasis and as essential to the therapeutic response. In the present review, we provide a synthetic examination of the main traits of cells embedded into the cancer stroma and emphasize several evidences that all components of the tumor tissue cooperate in space and time. Then we turn to discuss the epitheliocentric somatic mutational view and other new paradigms assuming that disturbed tissue interactions among cell populations are critical to cancer causation, growth and spread.

Preoperative Breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Contralateral Breast Cancer Occurrence Among Older Women With Breast Cancer

PURPOSE

Preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) detects occult contralateral breast cancers (CBCs) in women with breast cancer, but the impact of detection on long-term CBC events is unclear. We examined whether MRI use decreases the occurrence of CBCs and the detection of stages II to IV disease among women who develop a CBC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Analyzing the SEER-Medicare database, we assessed overall, synchronous (< 6 months after primary cancer diagnosis), and subsequent (ie, metachronous) stage-specific CBC occurrences in women who were diagnosed with stages I and II breast cancer during 2004-2009 and who were observed through 2011.

RESULTS

Among 38,971 women with breast cancer, 6,377 (16.4%) received preoperative MRI. After propensity score matching, and compared with women who did not undergo MRI, preoperative MRI use was significantly associated with a higher synchronous CBC detection rate (126.4 v 42.9 per 1,000 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio, 2.85; P < .001) but a lower subsequent CBC detection rate (3.3 v 4.5 per 1,000 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.68; P = .002). However, the 5-year cumulative incidence of CBC remained significantly higher among women undergoing MRI compared with those not undergoing MRI (7.2% v 4.0%, respectively; P < .001). The analyses of projected CBC events for 10,000 patients who receive MRI indicated that, after a 5-year follow-up, MRI use would detect an additional 192 in situ CBCs (95% CI, 125 to 279) and 120 stage I CBCs (95% CI, 62 to 193) but would not have a significant impact on stages II to IV CBC occurrences (∼ 6; 95% CI, -21 to 47).

CONCLUSION

An increased synchronous CBC detection rate, attributable to MRI, was not offset by a decrease of subsequent CBC occurrence among older women with early-stage breast cancer, suggesting that preoperative MRI in women with breast cancer may lead to overdiagnosis.

The value of modern mammography screening in the control of breast cancer: understanding the underpinnings of the current debates

Since the introduction of mammography screening, debates about the value of screening have endured and been contentious. Recent reviews of the randomized controlled trials reach different conclusions about the absolute benefit of screening, as do evaluations of population trends in breast cancer mortality and the evaluations of service screening. Conclusions about the value of screening commonly are expressed in terms of the balance of benefits and harms, which can differ greatly even when derived seemingly from the same data. It can be shown when different estimates are adjusted to a common screening and follow-up scenario, differences in balance sheet estimates diminish substantially. The strong evidence of benefit associated with exposure to modern mammography screening suggests that it is time to move beyond the randomized controlled trial estimates of benefit and consider policy decisions on the basis of benefits and harms estimated from the evaluation of current screening programs.

¿Overscreening o prevención a escala humana? Tamizaje excesivo

Cuando se aplica un método de tamizaje de modo excesivo, abusivo o innecesario los daños provocados pueden superar a los beneficios. Para desarrollar el concepto de tamizaje excesivo, fueron consideradas algunas categorías: tamizaje innecesario, sin indicación médica, inducido, obligatorio, por frecuencia inadecuada. Existen sesgos de interpretación que no permiten determinar de forma objetiva el balance daño beneficio de los programas de tamizaje relacionados al exceso de diagnóstico. Evitar el daño producido por tamizajes excesivos (overscreening) requiere llevar recomendaciones y pautas genéricas al terreno de la práctica clínica con casos particulares. La prevención cuaternaria, fundada conceptualmente en los cuidados de salud centrados en la persona, permite considerar las creencias, inquietudes, opciones individuales, haciendo posible llevar a la prevención a una escala humana.

DNA methylation markers for early detection of women's cancer: promise and challenges

Breast, ovarian and endometrial cancers cause significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the presence of existing screening, diagnostic and treatment modalities, they continue to pose considerable unsolved challenges. Overdiagnosis is a growing problem in breast cancer screening and neither screening nor early diagnosis of ovarian or endometrial cancer is currently possible. Moreover, treatment of the diversity of these cancers presenting in the clinic is not sufficiently personalized at present. Recent technological advances, including reduced representation bisulfite sequencing, methylation arrays, digital PCR, next-generation sequencing and advanced statistical data analysis, enable the analysis of methylation patterns in cell-free tumor DNA in serum/plasma. Ongoing work is bringing these methods together for the analysis of samples from large clinical trials, which have been collected well in advance of cancer diagnosis. These efforts pave the way for the development of a noninvasive method that would enable us to overcome existing challenges to personalized medicine.

Overdiagnosis in breast cancer chemoprevention trials

Several randomized controlled trials have demonstrated that the preventive use of an antiestrogen agent such as tamoxifen, raloxifene, anastrozole, or exemestane will reduce the incidence of estrogen receptor (er)–positive breast cancers by 50% or more. The reduction in risk becomes apparent shortly after tamoxifen initiation. However, no mortality benefit has yet been demonstrated with tamoxifen or any other agent, an effect that might be statistical: that is, the statistical power to detect a difference in mortality could be lacking because deaths from breast cancer are far fewer in number than cases of breast cancer, and because the average time to cancer is much shorter than the time to death. In other words, it could be too early to see an effect. However, the lack of an observed survival benefit might also be a result of chemoprevention agents preferentially preventing cancers that would rarely lead to death. That paradigm extends the (controversial) concepts of overdiagnosis and of the potential for spontaneous regression of some lowgrade breast cancers [...]

Can MRI replace serial biopsies in men on active surveillance for prostate cancer?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The role of MRI in active surveillance to date has been in assessing men with low or intermediate-risk disease to identify those men harbouring higher risk disease undersampled at standard biopsy. MRI as a tool for reassessing men over the surveillance period, as an alternative to repeat standard biopsies, is also of interest.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multiple studies suggest that MRI early in active surveillance can identify men whose prostate cancer was undersampled at initial biopsy, and MRI-targeted biopsies can be offered. There are a small number of centres now using MRI in the routine follow-up of men on active surveillance. The presence of a lesion on MRI indicates that a man is at higher likelihood of radiological progression than men with a negative MRI at diagnosis. These findings need to be validated in longer-term studies with predefined criteria for radiological significance and radiological progression.

SUMMARY

MRI is useful in the identification of men with higher-risk prostate cancer prior to commencement of a formal active surveillance programme. It is also of use in following up men on active surveillance, as a way to detect change in tumour over time.

BMI and breast cancer prognosis benefit: mammography screening reveals differences between normal weight and overweight women

OBJECTIVES

Few studies are available on the potential impact of body weight on breast cancer prognosis in screen-detected patients. Moreover, it is not known whether body mass index (BMI) could have a different prognostic impact in screen-detected versus symptomatic breast cancer patients. To investigate these unsolved issues, we carried out a retrospective study evaluating the effect of BMI on breast cancer prognosis in screen-detected vs symptomatic breast cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a follow-up study on 448 women diagnosed with incident, histologically-confirmed breast cancer. Patients were categorized according to their BMI as normal weight, overweight and obese. Disease free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and BMI curves were compared according to mode of cancer detection.

RESULTS

Among screen-detected patients, higher BMI was associated with a significant lower DFS, whereas no significant difference was observed among symptomatic patients. OS showed similar results. In the multivariate analysis adjusting for age, education, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and menopausal status, the risk for high level of BMI among screen-detected patients did not reach the statistical significance for either recurrence or survival.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the potential impact of high bodyweight in breast cancer prognosis, the findings confirm that obesity plays a role in women breast cancer prognosis independently from diagnosis mode.

Nuclear Ep-ICD accumulation predicts aggressive clinical course in early stage breast cancer patients

Background

Regulated intramembrane proteolysis of Epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) results in release of its intracellular domain (Ep-ICD) which triggers oncogenic signalling. The clinical significance of Ep-ICD in breast cancer remains to be determined. Herein, we examined the expression of nuclear and cytoplasmic Ep-ICD, and membranous extracellular domain of EpCAM (EpEx) in breast cancer patients, to determine its potential utility in predicting aggressive clinical course of the disease.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 266 breast cancers and 45 normal breast tissues were immunohistochemically analyzed to determine the expression patterns of nuclear and cytoplasmic Ep-ICD and membranous EpEx and correlated with clinicopathological parameters and follow up. Disease-free survival was determined by Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analysis.

Results

Nuclear Ep-ICD was more frequently expressed in breast cancers compared to normal tissues. Significant association was observed between increased nuclear Ep-ICD expression and reduced disease-free survival in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) (p < 0.001). Nuclear Ep-ICD was positive in all the 13 DCIS and 25 IDC patients who had reduced disease-free survival, while none of the nuclear Ep-ICD negative DCIS or IDC patients had recurrence during the follow up period. Notably, majority of IDC patients who had recurrence had early stage tumors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified nuclear Ep-ICD as the most significant predictive factor for reduced disease-free survival in IDC patients (p = 0.011, Hazard ratio = 80.18).

Conclusion

Patients with nuclear Ep-ICD positive breast cancers had poor prognosis. The high recurrence of disease in nuclear Ep-ICD positive patients, especially those with early tumor stage suggests that nuclear Ep-ICD accumulation holds the promise of identifying early stage patients with aggressive disease who are likely to be in need of more rigorous post-operative surveillance and/or treatment.

Lead-time models should not be used to estimate overdiagnosis in cancer screening

Lead-time can mean two different things: Clinical lead-time is the lead-time for clinically relevant tumors; that is, those that are not overdiagnosed. Model-based lead-time is a theoretical construct where the time when the tumor would have caused symptoms is not limited by the person's death. It is the average time at which the diagnosis is brought forward for both clinically relevant and overdiagnosed cancers. When screening for breast cancer, clinical lead-time is about 1 year, while model-based lead-time varies from 2 to 7 years. There are two different methods to calculate overdiagnosis in cancer screening--the excess-incidence approach and the lead-time approach--that rely on two different lead-time definitions. Overdiagnosis when screening with mammography has varied from 0 to 75 %. We have explained that these differences are mainly caused by using different definitions and methods and not by variations in data. High levels of overdiagnosis of cancer have usually been explained by detection of many slow-growing tumors with long lead-times. This theory can be tested by studying if slow-growing tumors accumulate in the absence of screening, which they don't. Thus, it is likely that the natural history of many subclinical cancers is spontaneous regression.

Can we negotiate with a tumor?

Recent progress in deciphering the molecular portraits of tumors promises an era of more personalized drug choices. However, current protocols still follow standard fixed-time schedules, which is not entirely coherent with the common observation that most tumors do not grow continuously. This unpredictability of the increases in tumor mass is not necessarily an obstacle to therapeutic efficiency, particularly if tumor dynamics could be exploited. We propose a model of tumor mass evolution as the integrated result of the dynamics of two linked complex systems, tumor cell population and tumor microenvironment, and show the practical relevance of this nonlinear approach.

A BRCA1-mutation associated DNA methylation signature in blood cells predicts sporadic breast cancer incidence and survival

Background

BRCA1 mutation carriers have an 85% risk of developing breast cancer but the risk of developing non-hereditary breast cancer is difficult to assess. Our objective is to test whether a DNA methylation (DNAme) signature derived from BRCA1 mutation carriers is able to predict non-hereditary breast cancer.

Methods

In a case/control setting (72 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 72 BRCA1/2 wild type controls) blood cell DNA samples were profiled on the Illumina 27 k methylation array. Using the Elastic Net classification algorithm, a BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature was derived and tested in two cohorts: (1) The NSHD (19 breast cancers developed within 12 years after sample donation and 77 controls) and (2) the UKCTOCS trial (119 oestrogen receptor positive breast cancers developed within 5 years after sample donation and 122 controls).

Results

We found that our blood-based BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature applied to blood cell DNA from women in the NSHD resulted in a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.78, P = 0.02) which did not validate in buccal cells from the same individuals. Applying the signature in blood DNA from UKCTOCS volunteers resulted in AUC of 0.57 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.64; P = 0.03) and is independent of family history or any other known risk factors. Importantly the BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature was able to predict breast cancer mortality (AUC = 0.67; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.83; P = 0.02). We also found that the 1,074 CpGs which are hypermethylated in BRCA1 mutation carriers are significantly enriched for stem cell polycomb group target genes (P <10^-20).

Conclusions

A DNAme signature derived from BRCA1 carriers is able to predict breast cancer risk and death years in advance of diagnosis. Future studies may need to focus on DNAme profiles in epithelial cells in order to reach the AUC thresholds required of preventative measures or early detection strategies.

Position paper: breast cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment in Denmark

BACKGROUND

During the last decades the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of breast cancer have changed and improved in Denmark. The first mammography screening programme started in 1991. However, for many years only about 20% of Danish women aged 50-69 were offered screening. The national roll-out of screening took place in 2008-2010.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Based on published Danish data, this overview describes the status of diagnosis and treatment, and the screening programme. For further evaluating the potential overdiagnosis and overtreatment, additional Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG) data are included.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Using incidence-based mortality method, reduction in breast cancer mortality was estimated to be 25% in the target group of women after 10 years of screening in Copenhagen; an outcome comparable to that of randomised controlled trials. A recent Danish study has indicated overdiagnosis to be around 4%. Others have estimated overdiagnosis to be 33%. National DBCG data showed that the rude breast cancer incidence increased during the period 1990-2011 from 126 to 206 per 100 000. The incidence was almost constant for women younger than 50 years. In regions not offering screening, the incidence increased with 3% per year for women aged 50-69 years with similar trends for small and large tumours. After introduction of screening the increase in the age group 50-69 years was confined to small tumours ≤ 20 mm, and most pronounced for node negative patients. From the 1990s, the use of breast conserving surgery has increased from around 25% to 69% in 2010. Screening has not increased the number of mastectomies. Breast cancer treatment in Denmark is evidence based and in agreement with international recommendations. After the introduction of mammography screening the absolute number of patients with a more advanced stage at diagnosis and the absolute number of patients undergoing mastectomy have decreased.

The role of gene regulatory networks in promoting cancer progression and metastasis

ABSTRACT: 

The majority of deaths owing to cancer are ultimately caused by metastatic disease. However, most research, to date, has focused on the molecular features of cancers at their primary sites rather than on understanding disseminated malignancy in its systemic form. The dynamic nature of metastatic malignancy and its behavior as a co-ordinated systemic disease require a cancer progression paradigm that is integrative and can incorporate both the proximate causes of cancer and the broader ultimate causes in an evolutionary and developmental context. The study of robust cellular attractor states that arise directly from the architectural patterns contained within gene regulatory networks is proposed as a conceptual framework through which many of the other disparate models of cancer metastasis can be more clearly viewed and, ultimately, unified, thus providing a new conceptual framework in which to understand cancer progression and metastasis.

Twenty five year follow-up for breast cancer incidence and mortality of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study: randomised screening trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare breast cancer incidence and mortality up to 25 years in women aged 40-59 who did or did not undergo mammography screening.

DESIGN

Follow-up of randomised screening trial by centre coordinators, the study's central office, and linkage to cancer registries and vital statistics databases.

SETTING

15 screening centres in six Canadian provinces,1980-85 (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia).

PARTICIPANTS

89,835 women, aged 40-59, randomly assigned to mammography (five annual mammography screens) or control (no mammography).

INTERVENTIONS

Women aged 40-49 in the mammography arm and all women aged 50-59 in both arms received annual physical breast examinations. Women aged 40-49 in the control arm received a single examination followed by usual care in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Deaths from breast cancer.

RESULTS

During the five year screening period, 666 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed in the mammography arm (n=44,925 participants) and 524 in the controls (n=44,910), and of these, 180 women in the mammography arm and 171 women in the control arm died of breast cancer during the 25 year follow-up period. The overall hazard ratio for death from breast cancer diagnosed during the screening period associated with mammography was 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.30). The findings for women aged 40-49 and 50-59 were almost identical. During the entire study period, 3250 women in the mammography arm and 3133 in the control arm had a diagnosis of breast cancer, and 500 and 505, respectively, died of breast cancer. Thus the cumulative mortality from breast cancer was similar between women in the mammography arm and in the control arm (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 1.12). After 15 years of follow-up a residual excess of 106 cancers was observed in the mammography arm, attributable to over-diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available. Overall, 22% (106/484) of screen detected invasive breast cancers were over-diagnosed, representing one over-diagnosed breast cancer for every 424 women who received mammography screening in the trial.

Prevenção Quaternária e limites em medicina*,**

O conceito de Prevenção Quaternária, um questionamento sobre a base da ação médica, nasceu na articulação da relação médico-paciente. Refere-se a toda a atividade médica, sendo uma importante ferramenta para a medicina de família. É uma interrogação ética sobre os excessos da demasiada e demasiadamente pouca medicina e fornece algumas respostas.

Principios Éticos y Prevención Cuaternaria: ¿es posible no proteger el ejercicio del principio de autonomía?

Este artículo tiene como objetivo discutir los principios éticos y la Prevención Cuaternaria utilizando como ejemplo la política adoptada por el gobierno Uruguayo, que a partir del año 2006 obliga a realizar tamizaje para el cáncer de mama, mediante mamografías obligatorias cada dos años, a las trabajadoras entre los 40 y 59 años de edad. Actualmente existe una controversia internacional sobre la pertinencia de los programas de detección precoz del cáncer de mama, y surgen autores e instituciones advirtiendo sobre la tensión entre el ejercicio de la autonomía individual y un contexto que promueve cada vez más la medicalización de la vida. En este contexto es fundamental que los médicos de familia utilicen un abordaje individualizado que respete la autonomía de las personas.

Mammography Screening - as of 2013

Introduction: Since 2008 the German Mammography Screening Programme has been available throughout Germany to all women aged between 50 and 69. The programme strictly follows the European Guidelines. There are controversial discussions in the media as well as in the specialised press. Materials and Methods: Overview of the available data with regard to an evaluation of randomised studies and with regard to quality-assured screening programmes in accordance with EU Guidelines (including data from 18 screening countries). Results: Positive effects of screening: reduction in mortality, less invasive treatment. Negative effects: False-positive diagnoses and biopsy recommendations, so-called overdiagnoses, radiation dose. Limits of screening: Interval carcinomas, incomplete reduction in mortality. A mathematical synopsis of the latest publications from the European screening programmes with the diagnosis rates in Germany determined from > 4.6 million screening examinations produces the following: a total of 10 000 mammograms are created for 1000 women (P) taking part in the Mammography Screening Programme (each of whom undergoes 10 mammograms in 20 years). Overall, the risk of triggering breast cancer through a mammogram is very clearly below the annual natural risk of suffering from breast cancer. In the German screening, of these 1000 women, an average of 288 women are called back once in 20 years as a result of changes that are ultimately benign (< 3 % per cycle). Of these, 74 of the 288 women undergo a biopsy due to a benign change (false-positive biopsy recommendations, usually punch or vacuum biopsies). According to EUROSCREEN, 71 carcinomas develop among participants (56 are discovered in the screening, 15 in the interval), and 67 carcinomas among non-participants (N-P) (in some cases, several years later) during this period. The 4 additional diagnoses among the Ps are referred to as overdiagnoses, as they do not contribute to a reduction in mortality (these participants die beforehand from other causes of death). With regard to the carcinomas that concern the screening periods, 11 women out of 1000 die among the Ps; there are 19 deaths among the N-Ps (within the observation period plus follow-up period). Discussion: The false-positive rate is unavoidable, but is far lower with mammography screening than with other methods. Overdiagnoses are to be expected with any early detection. All calculations require assumptions and are therefore highly discrepant. They have very low evidence levels. The radiation dose should not be an argument against screening when applied correctly due to the very low risk and significant benefits. Interval carcinomas indicate the limits of a mammography screening programme. False-negatives only represent a subset of the interval carcinomas and are not to be equated with them. There is a very high evidence level for a significant reduction in mortality through mammography screening. For the first time, an independent expert commission has confirmed the results of the randomised studies and the statement of the WHO from 2002 and their further validity. Participants can expect a reduction in mortality of 30 %. Data from the current European screening programmes confirm a mortality reduction of 43 %, corresponding to 8/19 saved lives among 71 women with breast cancer or 1000 asymptomatic Ps. Many additional Ps benefit from less invasive treatment due to the early detection. Conclusions: As a result of the risk/benefit ratio, mammography screening should absolutely be recommended to asymptomatic women aged between 50-69. High importance is given to the provision of education for women by the treating gynaecologists as regards the opportunities for quality-assured early detection available to them in the healthcare system.

Next-generation sequencing: a powerful tool for the discovery of molecular markers in breast ductal carcinoma in situ

Mammographic screening leads to frequent biopsies and concomitant overdiagnosis of breast cancer, particularly ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Some DCIS lesions rapidly progress to invasive carcinoma, whereas others remain indolent. Because we cannot yet predict which lesions will not progress, all DCIS is regarded as malignant, and many women are overtreated. Thus, there is a pressing need for a panel of molecular markers in addition to the current clinical and pathological factors to provide prognostic information. Genomic technologies such as microarrays have made major contributions to defining subtypes of breast cancer. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) modalities offer unprecedented depth of expression analysis through revealing transcriptional boundaries, mutations, rare transcripts and alternative splice variants. NGS approaches are just beginning to be applied to DCIS. Here, the authors review the applications and challenges of NGS in discovering novel potential therapeutic targets and candidate biomarkers in the premalignant progression of breast cancer.

Overestimated lead times in cancer screening has led to substantial underestimation of overdiagnosis

Background:

Published lead time estimates in breast cancer screening vary from 1 to 7 years and the percentages of overdiagnosis vary from 0 to 75%. The differences are usually explained as random variations. We study how much can be explained by using different definitions and methods.

Methods:

We estimated the clinically relevant lead time based on the observed incidence reduction after attending the last screening round in the Norwegian mammography screening programme. We compared this estimate with estimates based on models that do not take overdiagnosis into account (model-based lead times), for varying levels of overdiagnosis. Finally, we calculated overdiagnosis adjusted for clinical and model-based lead times and compared results.

Results:

Clinical lead time was about one year based on the reduction in incidence in women previously offered screening. When overdiagnosed tumours were included, the estimates increased to 4–9 years, depending on the age at which screening begins and the level of overdiagnosis. Including all breast cancers detected in women long after the end of the screening programme dilutes the level of overdiagnosis by a factor of 2–3.

Conclusion:

When overdiagnosis is not taken into account, lead time is substantially overestimated. Overdiagnosis adjusted for model-based lead time is a function tending to zero, with no simple interpretation. Furthermore, the estimates are not in general comparable, because they depend on both the duration of screening and duration of follow-up. In contrast, overdiagnosis adjusted for clinically relevant tumours is a point estimate (and interpreted as percentage), which we find is the most reasonable method.

Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program

BACKGROUND

There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis.

METHODS

We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30-89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates.

RESULTS

We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were -0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60-79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups.

INTERPRETATION

The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.

Screening for breast cancer with mammography

BACKGROUND

A variety of estimates of the benefits and harms of mammographic screening for breast cancer have been published and national policies vary.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of screening for breast cancer with mammography on mortality and morbidity.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched PubMed (22 November 2012) and the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (22 November 2012).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised trials comparing mammographic screening with no mammographic screening.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently extracted data. Study authors were contacted for additional information.

MAIN RESULTS

Eight eligible trials were identified. We excluded a trial because the randomisation had failed to produce comparable groups.The eligible trials included 600,000 women in the analyses in the age range 39 to 74 years. Three trials with adequate randomisation did not show a statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality at 13 years (relative risk (RR) 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79 to 1.02); four trials with suboptimal randomisation showed a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality with an RR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.83). The RR for all seven trials combined was 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87). We found that breast cancer mortality was an unreliable outcome that was biased in favour of screening, mainly because of differential misclassification of cause of death. The trials with adequate randomisation did not find an effect of screening on total cancer mortality, including breast cancer, after 10 years (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.10) or on all-cause mortality after 13 years (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03).Total numbers of lumpectomies and mastectomies were significantly larger in the screened groups (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.42), as were number of mastectomies (RR 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.32). The use of radiotherapy was similarly increased whereas there was no difference in the use of chemotherapy (data available in only two trials).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

If we assume that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 15% and that overdiagnosis and overtreatment is at 30%, it means that for every 2000 women invited for screening throughout 10 years, one will avoid dying of breast cancer and 10 healthy women, who would not have been diagnosed if there had not been screening, will be treated unnecessarily. Furthermore, more than 200 women will experience important psychological distress including anxiety and uncertainty for years because of false positive findings. To help ensure that the women are fully informed before they decide whether or not to attend screening, we have written an evidence-based leaflet for lay people that is available in several languages on www.cochrane.dk. Because of substantial advances in treatment and greater breast cancer awareness since the trials were carried out, it is likely that the absolute effect of screening today is smaller than in the trials. Recent observational studies show more overdiagnosis than in the trials and very little or no reduction in the incidence of advanced cancers with screening.

Citations of scientific results and conflicts of interest: the case of mammography screening

Introduction

In 2001, a Cochrane review of mammography screening questioned whether screening reduces breast cancer mortality, and a more comprehensive review in Lancet, also in 2001, reported considerable overdiagnosis and overtreatment. This led to a heated debate and a recent review of the evidence by UK experts intended to be independent.

Objective

To explore if general medical and specialty journals differed in accepting the results and methods of three Cochrane reviews on mammography screening.

Methods

We identified articles citing the Lancet review from 2001 or updated versions of the Cochrane review (last search 20 April 2012). We explored which results were quoted, whether the methods and results were accepted (explicit agreement or quoted without caveats), differences between general and specialty journals, and change over time.

Results

We included 171 articles. The results for overdiagnosis were not quoted in 87% (148/171) of included articles and the results for breast cancer mortality were not quoted in 53% (91/171) of articles. 11% (7/63) of articles in general medical journals accepted the results for overdiagnosis compared with 3% (3/108) in specialty journals (p=0.05). 14% (9/63) of articles in general medical journals accepted the methods of the review compared with 1% (1/108) in specialty journals (p=0.001). Specialty journals were more likely to explicitly reject the estimated effect on breast cancer mortality 26% (28/108), compared with 8% (5/63) in general medical journals, p=0.02.

Conclusions

Articles in specialty journals were more likely to explicitly reject results from the Cochrane reviews, and less likely to accept the results and methods, than articles in general medical journals. Several specialty journals are published by interest groups and some authors have vested interests in mammography screening.