Associations of life course obesity with endometrial cancer in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

BACKGROUND

Adult obesity is a strong risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC); however, associations of early life obesity with EC are inconclusive. We evaluated associations of young adulthood (18-21 years) and adulthood (at enrolment) body mass index (BMI) and weight change with EC risk in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2).

METHODS

We pooled data from nine case-control and 11 cohort studies in E2C2. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for BMI (kg/m2) in young adulthood and adulthood, with adjustment for BMI in adulthood and young adulthood, respectively. We evaluated categorical changes in weight (5-kg increments) and BMI from young adulthood to adulthood, and stratified analyses by histology, menopausal status, race and ethnicity, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use and diabetes.

RESULTS

We included 14 859 cases and 40 859 controls. Obesity in adulthood (OR = 2.85, 95% CI = 2.47-3.29) and young adulthood (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.06-1.50) were positively associated with EC risk. Weight gain and BMI gain were positively associated with EC; weight loss was inversely associated with EC. Young adulthood obesity was more strongly associated with EC among cases diagnosed with endometrioid histology, those who were pre/perimenopausal, non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black, among never HRT users and non-diabetics.

CONCLUSIONS

Young adulthood obesity is associated with EC risk, even after accounting for BMI in adulthood. Weight gain is also associated with EC risk, whereas weight loss is inversely associated. Achieving and maintaining a healthy weight over the life course is important for EC prevention efforts.

Cell Phone Radiation Exposure Limits and Engineering Solutions

In the 1990s, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) restricted its risk assessment for human exposure to radiofrequency radiation (RFR) in seven ways: (1) Inappropriate focus on heat, ignoring sub-thermal effects. (2) Reliance on exposure experiments performed over very short times. (3) Overlooking time/amplitude characteristics of RFR signals. (4) Ignoring carcinogenicity, hypersensitivity, and other health conditions connected with RFR. (5) Measuring cellphone Specific Absorption Rates (SAR) at arbitrary distances from the head. (6) Averaging SAR doses at volumetric/mass scales irrelevant to health. (7) Using unrealistic simulations for cell phone SAR estimations. Low-cost software and hardware modifications are proposed here for cellular phone RFR exposure mitigation: (1) inhibiting RFR emissions in contact with the body, (2) use of antenna patterns reducing the Percent of Power absorbed in the Head (PPHead) and body and increasing the Percent of Power Radiated for communications (PPR), and (3) automated protocol-based reductions of the number of RFR emissions, their duration, or integrated dose. These inexpensive measures do not fundamentally alter cell phone functions or communications quality. A health threat is scientifically documented at many levels and acknowledged by industries. Yet mitigation of RFR exposures to users does not appear as a priority with most cell phone manufacturers.

The OncoSim-Breast Cancer Microsimulation Model

Background: OncoSim-Breast is a Canadian breast cancer simulation model to evaluate breast cancer interventions. This paper aims to describe the OncoSim-Breast model and how well it reproduces observed breast cancer trends. Methods: The OncoSim-Breast model simulates the onset, growth, and spread of invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ tumours. It combines Canadian cancer incidence, mortality, screening program, and cost data to project population-level outcomes. Users can change the model input to answer specific questions. Here, we compared its projections with observed data. First, we compared the model’s projected breast cancer trends with the observed data in the Canadian Cancer Registry and from Vital Statistics. Next, we replicated a screening trial to compare the model’s projections with the trial’s observed screening effects. Results: OncoSim-Breast’s projected incidence, mortality, and stage distribution of breast cancer were close to the observed data in the Canadian Cancer Registry and from Vital Statistics. OncoSim-Breast also reproduced the breast cancer screening effects observed in the UK Age trial. Conclusions: OncoSim-Breast’s ability to reproduce the observed population-level breast cancer trends and the screening effects in a randomized trial increases the confidence of using its results to inform policy decisions related to early detection of breast cancer.

Impact of blue light therapy on plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and hypertrichosis in horses with pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction

Blue light therapy can be used in horses to alter the natural photoperiod and inhibit winter hair coat growth. Seasonal increases in ACTH occur in the fall season but are exaggerated in horses with pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID). Additionally, PPID horses frequently present with hypertrichosis. Thus, blue light therapy was proposed as a potential management tool for hypertrichosis and for investigating the impact of photoperiod manipulation on ACTH. Eighteen PPID horses, aged 18 to 31 yr, from a university-owned research herd were selected and assigned to either the control group (n = 10) or the treatment (blue light therapy) group (n = 8) based on age and clinical history, which included the results of multiple endocrine tests. Consistent daylength of approximately 14.5 h was maintained for the treated horses from July 15 through approximately late October via the extension of natural daylength using wearable masks that provided short wavelength blue light (465 nm) to 1 eye. The control group was exposed to only the natural photoperiod during this time. All horses were housed on the same farm and remained on pasture for the duration of the study. On Day 0, thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) stimulation tests were performed to confirm PPID status; there were no differences between the 2 groups in resting plasma ACTH or plasma ACTH at 10 min after TRH administration. To determine an effect of treatment on ACTH, blood was collected via jugular venipuncture for measurement of ACTH at sequential timepoints over a 16-h period in mid-October. Hair weights were also assessed throughout the study. No differences in resting plasma ACTH were observed between the 2 groups across the seasonal analysis (July and October) or during the 16-h testing. The PPID horses receiving blue light therapy had lighter hair weights compared to the PPID control horses. These results suggest that blue light therapy does not alter ACTH concentrations but could potentially be used as an additional management tool for hypertrichosis in PPID horses. Manipulation of the photoperiod using blue light therapy did not affect seasonal changes in ACTH in this study.

Dairy foods, calcium, and risk of breast cancer overall and for subtypes defined by estrogen receptor status: a pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies examining the relations between dairy product and calcium intakes and breast cancer have been inconclusive, especially for tumor subtypes.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the associations between intakes of specific dairy products and calcium and risk of breast cancer overall and for subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER) status.

METHOD

We pooled the individual-level data of over 1 million women who were followed for a maximum of 8-20 years across studies. Associations were evaluated for dairy product and calcium intakes and risk of incident invasive breast cancer overall (n = 37,861 cases) and by subtypes defined by ER status. Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated and then combined using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Overall, no clear association was observed between the consumption of specific dairy foods, dietary (from foods only) calcium, and total (from foods and supplements) calcium, and risk of overall breast cancer. Although each dairy product showed a null or very weak inverse association with risk of overall breast cancer (P, test for trend >0.05 for all), differences by ER status were suggested for yogurt and cottage/ricotta cheese with associations observed for ER-negative tumors only (pooled HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.98 comparing ≥60 g/d with <1 g/d of yogurt and 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76, 0.95 comparing ≥25 g/d with <1 g/d of cottage/ricotta cheese). Dietary calcium intake was only weakly associated with breast cancer risk (pooled HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97, 0.99 per 350 mg/d).

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that adult dairy or calcium consumption is unlikely to associate with a higher risk of breast cancer and that higher yogurt and cottage/ricotta cheese intakes were inversely associated with the risk of ER-negative breast cancer, a less hormonally dependent subtype with poor prognosis. Future studies on fermented dairy products, earlier life exposures, ER-negative breast cancer, and different racial/ethnic populations may further elucidate the relation.

The Critical Importance of Molecular Biomarkers and Imaging in the Study of Electrohypersensitivity. A Scientific Consensus International Report

Clinical research aiming at objectively identifying and characterizing diseases via clinical observations and biological and radiological findings is a critical initial research step when establishing objective diagnostic criteria and treatments. Failure to first define such diagnostic criteria may lead research on pathogenesis and etiology to serious confounding biases and erroneous medical interpretations. This is particularly the case for electrohypersensitivity (EHS) and more particularly for the so-called "provocation tests", which do not investigate the causal origin of EHS but rather the EHS-associated particular environmental intolerance state with hypersensitivity to man-made electromagnetic fields (EMF). However, because those tests depend on multiple EMF-associated physical and biological parameters and have been conducted in patients without having first defined EHS objectively and/or endpoints adequately, they cannot presently be considered to be valid pathogenesis research methodologies. Consequently, the negative results obtained by these tests do not preclude a role of EMF exposure as a symptomatic trigger in EHS patients. Moreover, there is no proof that EHS symptoms or EHS itself are caused by psychosomatic or nocebo effects. This international consensus report pleads for the acknowledgement of EHS as a distinct neuropathological disorder and for its inclusion in the WHO International Classification of Diseases.

Estimating the future cancer management costs attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada

OBJECTIVES

An estimated 33-37% of incident cancers in Canada are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Interventions targeting these risk factors would minimize the substantial health and economic burdens Canadians face due to cancer. We estimate the future health and economic burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data from the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study into OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool.

METHODS

Using the integrated OncoSim population attributable risk and population impact measures, we evaluated risk factor-targeted intervention scenarios implemented in 2020, assuming the targeted risk factor prevalence reduction would be achieved by 2032 with a 12-year latency period.

RESULTS

We estimate that smoking will be the largest contributor to cancer-related costs, with a cost of CAD $44.4 billion between 2032 and 2044. An estimated CAD $3.3 billion of the cost could be avoided with a 30% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2022. Following smoking, the next highest cancer management costs are associated with inadequate physical activity and excess body weight, accounting for CAD $10.7 billion ($2.7 billion avoidable) and CAD $9.8 billion ($3.2 billion avoidable), respectively. Avoidable costs for other risk factors range from CAD $90 million to CAD $2.5 billion.

CONCLUSION

Interventions targeting modifiable cancer risk factors could prevent a substantial number of incident cancer cases and billions of dollars in cancer management costs. With limited budgets and rising costs in cancer care in Canada, these simulation models and results are valuable for researchers and policymakers to inform decisions and prioritize and evaluate intervention programs.

Pregnancy outcomes and risk of endometrial cancer: A pooled analysis of individual participant data in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium

A full-term pregnancy is associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk; however, whether the effect of additional pregnancies is independent of age at last pregnancy is unknown. The associations between other pregnancy-related factors and endometrial cancer risk are less clear. We pooled individual participant data from 11 cohort and 19 case-control studies participating in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2) including 16 986 women with endometrial cancer and 39 538 control women. We used one- and two-stage meta-analytic approaches to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) for the association between exposures and endometrial cancer risk. Ever having a full-term pregnancy was associated with a 41% reduction in risk of endometrial cancer compared to never having a full-term pregnancy (OR = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.63). The risk reduction appeared the greatest for the first full-term pregnancy (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.84), with a further ~15% reduction per pregnancy up to eight pregnancies (OR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.14-0.28) that was independent of age at last full-term pregnancy. Incomplete pregnancy was also associated with decreased endometrial cancer risk (7%-9% reduction per pregnancy). Twin births appeared to have the same effect as singleton pregnancies. Our pooled analysis shows that, while the magnitude of the risk reduction is greater for a full-term pregnancy than an incomplete pregnancy, each additional pregnancy is associated with further reduction in endometrial cancer risk, independent of age at last full-term pregnancy. These results suggest that the very high progesterone level in the last trimester of pregnancy is not the sole explanation for the protective effect of pregnancy.

Body size and weight change over adulthood and risk of breast cancer by menopausal and hormone receptor status: a pooled analysis of 20 prospective cohort studies

Associations between anthropometric factors and breast cancer (BC) risk have varied inconsistently by estrogen and/or progesterone receptor (ER/PR) status. Associations between prediagnostic anthropometric factors and risk of premenopausal and postmenopausal BC overall and ER/PR status subtypes were investigated in a pooled analysis of 20 prospective cohorts, including 36,297 BC cases among 1,061,915 women, using multivariable Cox regression analyses, controlling for reproductive factors, diet and other risk factors. We estimated dose-response relationships and tested for nonlinear associations using restricted cubic splines. Height showed positive, linear associations for premenopausal and postmenopausal BC risk (6-7% RR increase per 5 cm increment), with stronger associations for receptor-positive subtypes. Body mass index (BMI) at cohort baseline was strongly inversely associated with premenopausal BC risk, and strongly positively-and nonlinearly-associated with postmenopausal BC (especially among women who never used hormone replacement therapy). This was primarily observed for receptor-positive subtypes. Early adult BMI (at 18-20 years) showed inverse, linear associations for premenopausal and postmenopausal BC risk (21% and 11% RR decrease per 5 kg/m2, respectively) with stronger associations for receptor-negative subtypes. Adult weight gain since 18-20 years was positively associated with postmenopausal BC risk, stronger for receptor-positive subtypes, and among women who were leaner in early adulthood. Women heavier in early adulthood generally had reduced premenopausal BC risk, independent of later weight gain. Positive associations between height, baseline (adult) BMI, adult weight gain and postmenopausal BC risk were substantially stronger for hormone receptor-positive versus negative subtypes. Premenopausal BC risk was positively associated with height, but inversely with baseline BMI and weight gain (mostly in receptor-positive subtypes). Inverse associations with early adult BMI seemed stronger in receptor-negative subtypes of premenopausal and postmenopausal BC.

Effects of pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction and Prascend (pergolide tablets) treatment on endocrine and immune function in horses

It remains unclear how pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) and pergolide treatment (Prascend [pergolide tablets]) affect endocrine and immune function in horses. To evaluate these effects, blood was collected regularly from 28 university-owned horses (10 Non-PPID, 9 PPID control [PC], and 9 PPID treatment [PT]) over approximately 15 mo. Pergolide treatment was initiated after Day 0 collections. Analyses included ACTH, insulin, total cortisol, free cortisol, complete blood counts, plasma myeloperoxidase, and cytokine/receptor gene expression in basal whole blood and in vitro stimulations (PMA/ionomycin, heat-inactivated Rhodococcus equi, and heat-inactivated Escherichia coli) of whole blood and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The results were analyzed using a linear mixed model (SAS 9.4) with significance set at P < 0.05. Significant group (P = 0.0014) and group-by-time (P = 0.0004) effects were observed in resting ACTH such that PT horses differed from Non-PPID horses only at Day 0. PT horses had significantly lower changes in ACTH responses to thyrotropin-releasing hormone stimulation tests than PC horses at non-fall time points only, mid-late February 2018 (P = 0.016) and early April 2018 (P = 0.0172). When PT and PC horses did not differ, they were combined before comparison to Non-PPID horses. No significant group or group-by-time effects were seen in resting insulin, total cortisol, or free cortisol; however, significant time effects were observed in these measures. PPID horses had lower absolute lymphocyte (P = 0.028) and red blood cell (P = 0.0203) counts than Non-PPID horses. In unstimulated whole blood, PPID horses had increased IL-8 expression compared with Non-PPID horses (P = 0.0102). In addition, PPID horses had decreased interferon γ production from PBMCs after stimulation with R. equi (P = 0.0063) and E. coli (P = 0.0057) and showed increased transforming growth factor β expression after E. coli stimulation (P = 0.0399). The main limitations of this study were a limited sample size and an inability to truly randomize the PPID horses into treatment groups. Resting ACTH is likely the best choice for determining successful responses to pergolide. Neither PPID nor pergolide appears to influence insulin, total cortisol, and free cortisol. As measured, systemic immune function was altered in PPID horses, and it is likely that these horses are indeed at increased risk of opportunistic infection. Despite reducing ACTH, pergolide treatment did not appear to influence immune function.

Gallbladder disease, cholecystectomy, and pancreatic cancer risk in the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4)

BACKGROUND

The association among gallbladder disease, cholecystectomy, and pancreatic cancer is unclear. Moreover, time interval between gallbladder disease or cholecystectomy and pancreatic cancer diagnosis is not considered in most previous studies.

AIM

To quantify the association among gallbladder disease, cholecystectomy, and pancreatic cancer, considering time since first diagnosis of gallbladder disease or cholecystectomy.

METHODS

We used data from nine case-control studies within the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium, including 5760 cases of adenocarcinoma of the exocrine pancreas and 8437 controls. We estimated pooled odds ratios and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals by estimating study-specific odds ratios through multivariable unconditional logistic regression models, and then pooling the obtained estimates using fixed-effects models.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with no history of gallbladder disease, the pooled odds ratio of pancreatic cancer was 1.69 (95% confidence interval, 1.51-1.88) for patients reporting a history of gallbladder disease. The odds ratio was 4.90 (95% confidence interval, 3.45-6.97) for gallbladder disease diagnosed <2 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis and 1.11 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.29) when ≥2 years elapsed. The pooled odds ratio was 1.64 (95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.89) for patients who underwent cholecystectomy, as compared to those without cholecystectomy. The odds ratio was 7.00 (95% confidence interval, 4.13-11.86) for a surgery <2 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis and 1.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.53) for a surgery ≥2 years before.

CONCLUSIONS

There appears to be no long-term effect of gallbladder disease on pancreatic cancer risk, and at most a modest one for cholecystectomy. The strong short-term association can be explained by diagnostic bias and reverse causation.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating smoking cessation into lung cancer screening: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

Low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening can reduce lung cancer mortality in people at high risk; adding a smoking cessation intervention to screening could further improve screening program outcomes. This study aimed to assess the impact of adding a smoking cessation intervention to lung cancer screening on clinical outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Using the OncoSim-Lung mathematical microsimulation model, we compared the projected lifetime impact of a smoking cessation intervention (nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline and 12 wk of counselling) in the context of annual low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in people at high risk to lung cancer screening without a cessation intervention in Canada. The simulated population consisted of Canadians born in 1940-1974; lung cancer screening was offered to eligible people in 2020. In the base-case scenario, we assumed that the intervention would be offered to smokers up to 10 times; each intervention would achieve a 2.5% permanent quit rate. Sensitivity analyses varied key model inputs. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios with a lifetime horizon from the health system's perspective, discounted at 1.5% per year. Costs are in 2019 Canadian dollars.

RESULTS

Offering a smoking cessation intervention in the context of lung cancer screening could lead to an additional 13% of smokers quitting smoking. It could potentially prevent 12 more lung cancers and save 200 more life-years for every 1000 smokers screened, at a cost of $22 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The results were most sensitive to quit rate. The intervention would cost over $50 000 per QALY gained with a permanent quit rate of less than 1.25% per attempt.

INTERPRETATION

Adding a smoking cessation intervention to lung cancer screening is likely cost-effective. To optimize the benefits of lung cancer screening, health care providers should encourage participants who still smoke to quit smoking.

Associations between incident breast cancer and ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide from a national land use regression model in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been classified as a human carcinogen based largely on epidemiological studies of lung cancer. Recent research suggests that exposure to ambient air pollution increases the risk of female breast cancer especially in premenopausal women.

METHODS

Our objective was to determine the association between residential exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and newly diagnosed cases of invasive breast cancer in a cohort of 89,247 women enrolled in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study between 1980 and 1985. Vital status and incident breast cancers through 2005 were determined through record linkage to the Canadian national mortality and cancer registries. Estimates of exposures to NO₂ using participants' addresses at time of entry into the study were derived from a national land use regression model. We classified women as reaching menopause according to information obtained at baseline. In addition, as we had no information from women on their menopausal status during the observation period, we conducted analyses using different cut-points for defining postmenopausal status (i.e., at 50 or at 52 years of age), and hence we had four non-independent cohorts. We computed rate ratios for the incidence of breast cancer and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Our Cox models used attained age as the time axis and the rate ratios were adjusted for several individual-level risk factors, including reproductive history, as well as census-based neighborhood-level characteristics.

RESULTS

The median concentration of NO₂ was about 15 parts per billion (ppb). After adjusting for personal risk factors and contextual variables, we found no evidence of associations for the incidence of breast cancer in the postmenopausal cohorts. In premenopausal women, the rate ratio for an increase of 9.7 ppb (about the interquartile range) was 1.13 (95%CI: 0.94-1.37) for the 50 years of age cut-off for menopausal status and it was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.00-1.38) for the 52 years of age cut-off.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that exposure to low concentrations of NO₂, a marker for traffic-related air pollution, increases the risk of premenopausal breast cancer, but not postmenopausal breast cancer.

Risks to Health and Well-Being From Radio-Frequency Radiation Emitted by Cell Phones and Other Wireless Devices

Radiation exposure has long been a concern for the public, policy makers, and health researchers. Beginning with radar during World War II, human exposure to radio-frequency radiation (RFR) technologies has grown substantially over time. In 2011, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) reviewed the published literature and categorized RFR as a "possible" (Group 2B) human carcinogen. A broad range of adverse human health effects associated with RFR have been reported since the IARC review. In addition, three large-scale carcinogenicity studies in rodents exposed to levels of RFR that mimic lifetime human exposures have shown significantly increased rates of Schwannomas and malignant gliomas, as well as chromosomal DNA damage. Of particular concern are the effects of RFR exposure on the developing brain in children. Compared with an adult male, a cell phone held against the head of a child exposes deeper brain structures to greater radiation doses per unit volume, and the young, thin skull's bone marrow absorbs a roughly 10-fold higher local dose. Experimental and observational studies also suggest that men who keep cell phones in their trouser pockets have significantly lower sperm counts and significantly impaired sperm motility and morphology, including mitochondrial DNA damage. Based on the accumulated evidence, we recommend that IARC re-evaluate its 2011 classification of the human carcinogenicity of RFR, and that WHO complete a systematic review of multiple other health effects such as sperm damage. In the interim, current knowledge provides justification for governments, public health authorities, and physicians/allied health professionals to warn the population that having a cell phone next to the body is harmful, and to support measures to reduce all exposures to RFR.

Lung cancer mortality reduction by LDCT screening-Results from the randomized German LUSI trial

In 2011, the U.S. National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) reported a 20% reduction of lung cancer mortality after regular screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT), as compared to X-ray screening. The introduction of lung cancer screening programs in Europe awaits confirmation of these first findings from European trials that started in parallel with the NLST. The German Lung cancer Screening Intervention (LUSI) is a randomized trial among 4,052 long-term smokers, 50-69 years of age, recruited from the general population, comparing five annual rounds of LDCT screening (screening arm; n = 2,029 participants) with a control arm (n = 2,023) followed by annual postal questionnaire inquiries. Data on lung cancer incidence and mortality and vital status were collected from hospitals or office-based physicians, cancer registries, population registers and health offices. Over an average observation time of 8.8 years after randomization, the hazard ratio for lung cancer mortality was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.46-1.19; p = 0.21) among men and women combined. Modeling by sex, however showed a statistically significant reduction in lung cancer mortality among women (HR = 0.31 [95% CI: 0.10-0.96], p = 0.04), but not among men (HR = 0.94 [95% CI: 0.54-1.61], p = 0.81) screened by LDCT (p_{heterogeneity} = 0.09). Findings from LUSI are in line with those from other trials, including NLST, that suggest a stronger reduction of lung cancer mortality after LDCT screening among women as compared to men. This heterogeneity could be the result of different relative counts of lung tumor subtypes occurring in men and women.

Cancer epidemiology update, following the 2011 IARC evaluation of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (Monograph 102)

Epidemiology studies (case-control, cohort, time trend and case studies) published since the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) 2011 categorization of radiofrequency radiation (RFR) from mobile phones and other wireless devices as a possible human carcinogen (Group 2B) are reviewed and summarized. Glioma is an important human cancer found to be associated with RFR in 9 case-control studies conducted in Sweden and France, as well as in some other countries. Increasing glioma incidence trends have been reported in the UK and other countries. Non-malignant endpoints linked include acoustic neuroma (vestibular Schwannoma) and meningioma. Because they allow more detailed consideration of exposure, case-control studies can be superior to cohort studies or other methods in evaluating potential risks for brain cancer. When considered with recent animal experimental evidence, the recent epidemiological studies strengthen and support the conclusion that RFR should be categorized as carcinogenic to humans (IARC Group 1). Opportunistic epidemiological studies are proposed that can be carried out through cross-sectional analyses of high, medium, and low mobile phone users with respect to hearing, vision, memory, reaction time, and other indicators that can easily be assessed through standardized computer-based tests. As exposure data are not uniformly available, billing records should be used whenever available to corroborate reported exposures.

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

Tumor size distribution of invasive breast cancers and the sensitivity of screening methods in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study

INTRODUCTION

This study set out to explore if breast cancers of different sizes are detected with varying sensitivity. In addition, we attempt to determine the effect of tumor size on screening detectability.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Data arising from the Canadian National Breast Screening Study (CNBSS) was used to perform all analyses. The CNBSS consists of two randomized controlled trials, which includes data on detection methods, age, and allocation groups. We stratified tumor size by 5 mm; age into 40-49 and 50-59 years age groups; and cancer detection or presentation methods into mammography only, physical breast examination only, both mammography and physical breast examination, interval cancers, and incident cancers.

RESULTS

This study revealed that a difference in tumor size exists for age (smaller tumor sizes are found in older women) and breast cancer detection or presentation modes. More specifically, breast cancers detected by mammography screening are statistically smaller than those detected by physical breast examination or those presenting as incident or interval cancers. This study also found that tumor size affects screening detectability for women in their 50's but not in their forties. That is, a statistically significant difference between mammography screening alone and physical examination alone was observed for women between the ages of 50-59 for tumor sizes up to 20 mm, including prevalent cases, and up to 15 mm when prevalent cases were excluded.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study suggest that smaller breast cancers are more likely to be detected among women in their 50s.

The OncoSim model: development and use for better decision-making in Canadian cancer control

The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer was created in 2007 by the federal government to accelerate cancer control across Canada. Its OncoSim microsimulation model platform, which consists of a suite of specific cancer models, was conceived as a tool to augment conventional resources for population-level policy- and decision-making. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer manages the OncoSim program, with funding from Health Canada and model development by Statistics Canada. Microsimulation modelling allows for the detailed capture of population heterogeneity and health and demographic history over time. Extensive data from multiple Canadian sources were used as inputs or to validate the model. OncoSim has been validated through expert consultation; assessments of face validity, internal validity, and external validity; and model fit against observed data. The platform comprises three in-depth cancer models (lung, colorectal, cervical), with another in-depth model (breast) and a generalized model (25 cancers) being in development. Unique among models of its class, OncoSim is available online for public sector use free of charge. Users can customize input values and output display, and extensive user support is provided. OncoSim has been used to support decision-making at the national and jurisdictional levels. Although simulation studies are generally not included in hierarchies of evidence, they are integral to informing cancer control policy when clinical studies are not feasible. OncoSim can evaluate complex intervention scenarios for multiple cancers. Canadian decision-makers thus have a powerful tool to assess the costs, benefits, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary effects of cancer control interventions when faced with difficult choices for improvements in population health and resource allocation.

Menstrual and Reproductive Factors, Hormone Use, and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: Analysis From the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4)

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the relation between menstrual and reproductive factors, exogenous hormones, and risk of pancreatic cancer (PC).

METHODS

Eleven case-control studies within the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-control Consortium took part in the present study, including in total 2838 case and 4748 control women. Pooled estimates of odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a 2-step logistic regression model and adjusting for relevant covariates.

RESULTS

An inverse OR was observed in women who reported having had hysterectomy (ORyesvs.no, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.91), remaining significant in postmenopausal women and never-smoking women, adjusted for potential PC confounders. A mutually adjusted model with the joint effect for hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hysterectomy showed significant inverse associations with PC in women who reported having had hysterectomy with HRT use (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Our large pooled analysis suggests that women who have had a hysterectomy may have reduced risk of PC. However, we cannot rule out that the reduced risk could be due to factors or indications for having had a hysterectomy. Further investigation of risk according to HRT use and reason for hysterectomy may be necessary.

Biennial lung cancer screening in Canada with smoking cessation-outcomes and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend low-dose CT (LDCT) screening to detect lung cancer among eligible at-risk individuals. We used the OncoSim model (formerly Cancer Risk Management Model) to compare outcomes and costs between annual and biennial LDCT screening.

METHODS

OncoSim incorporates vital statistics, cancer registry data, health survey and utility data, cost, and other data, and simulates individual lives, aggregating outcomes over millions of individuals. Using OncoSim and National Lung Screening Trial eligibility criteria (age 55-74, minimum 30 pack-year smoking history, smoking cessation less than 15 years from time of first screen) and data, we have modeled screening parameters, cancer stage distribution, and mortality shifts for screen diagnosed cancer. Costs (in 2008 Canadian dollars) and quality of life years gained are discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS

Compared with annual LDCT screening, biennial screening used fewer resources, gained fewer life-years (61,000 vs. 77,000), but resulted in very similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (24,000 vs. 23,000) over 20 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of annual compared with biennial screening was $54,000-$4.8 million/QALY gained. Average incremental CT scan use in biennial screening was 52% of that in annual screening. A smoking cessation intervention decreased the average cost-effectiveness ratio in most scenarios by half.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 20 years, biennial LDCT screening for lung cancer appears to provide similar benefit in terms of QALYs gained to annual screening and is more cost-effective. Further study of biennial screening should be undertaken in population screening programs. A smoking cessation program should be integrated into either screening strategy.

Revised estimates of overdiagnosis from the Canadian National Breast Screening Study

We have re-estimated overdiagnosis of breast cancer from mammography screening by age group in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study (CNBSS), a randomized screening trial. In the CNBSS, participants were recruited in 15 centers. 89,835 women were randomized with informed consent, 50,430 age 40-49 and 39,405 age 50-59. Women aged 40-49 received annual mammography and physical examination (MA+PX) versus a single physical examination and usual care in the community (UC). Women aged 50-59 received (MA+PX) versus (PX-alone) annually. Individual randomization resulted in 44 almost identically distributed demographic and risk factors. Annual compliance over the five or four scheduled screens was 86-95%. The cumulative numbers of invasive and in situ breast cancers ascertained by year during screening and subsequent follow-up to 25 years post entry to the CNBSS in the mammography arm have been compared to those in the control arm. Estimates of overdiagnosis were derived using post-screening cessation cut-off points from 1 to 20years.⋯Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer at five years post cessation of screening for women aged 40-49 was estimated to be 32%, and 16% for women aged 50-59; 20years post cessation of screening 48% for women 40-49 and 5% for those 50-59. Including ductal carcinoma in situ with invasive cancer, estimates were 41%, 25%, 55% and 16%, respectively. We conclude that approximately 30% of invasive screen-detected breast cancers in women age 40-49 were overdiagnosed, and 20% of those screen-detected in women age 50-59. Including ductal carcinoma in situ, the estimates are 40% and 30%, respectively.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution and the risk of lung cancer among participants of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study

Recently, air pollution has been classified as a carcinogen largely on the evidence of epidemiological studies of lung cancer. However, there have been few prospective studies that have evaluated associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) and cancer at lower concentrations. We conducted a prospective analysis of 89,234 women enrolled in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study between 1980 and 1985, and for whom residential measures of PM2.5 could be assigned. The cohort was linked to the Canadian Cancer Registry to identify incident lung cancers through 2004. Surface PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using satellite data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize associations between PM2.5 and lung cancer. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) computed from these models were adjusted for several individual-level characteristics, including smoking. The cohort was composed predominantly of Canadian-born (82%), married (80%) women with a median PM2.5 exposure of 9.1 µg/m(3) . In total, 932 participants developed lung cancer. In fully adjusted models, a 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM2.5 was associated with an elevated risk of lung cancer (HR: 1.34; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.65). The strongest associations were observed with small cell carcinoma (HR: 1.53; 95% CI = 0.93, 2.53) and adenocarcinoma (HR: 1.44; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.97). Stratified analyses suggested increased PM2.5 risks were limited to those who smoked cigarettes. Our findings are consistent with previous epidemiological investigations of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and lung cancer. Importantly, they suggest associations persist at lower concentrations such as those currently found in Canadian cities.

Using Simulation to Model and Validate Invasive Breast Cancer Progression in Women in the Study and Control Groups of the Canadian National Breast Screening Studies I and II

BACKGROUND

Modeling breast cancer progression and the effect of various risk is helpful in deciding when a woman should start and end screening, and how often the screening should be undertaken.

METHODS

We modeled the natural progression of breast cancer using a hidden Markov process, and incorporated the effects of covariates. Patients are women aged 50-59 (older) and 40-49 (younger) years from the Canadian National Breast Screening Studies. We included prevalent cancers, estimated the screening sensitivities and rates of over-diagnosis, and validated the models using simulation.

RESULTS

We found that older women have a higher rate of transition from a healthy to preclinical state and other causes of death but a lower rate of transition from preclinical to clinical state. Reciprocally, younger women have a lower rate of transition from a healthy to preclinical state and other causes of death but a higher rate of transition from a preclinical to clinical state. Different risk factors were significant for the age groups. The mean sojourn times for older and younger women were 2.53 and 2.96 years, respectively. In the study group, the sensitivities of the initial physical examination and mammography for older and younger women were 0.87 and 0.81, respectively, and the sensitivity of the subsequent screens were 0.78 and 0.53, respectively. In the control groups, the sensitivities of the initial physical examination for older and younger women were 0.769 and 0.671, respectively, and the sensitivity of the subsequent physical examinations for the control group aged 50-59 years was 0.37. The upper-bounds for over-diagnosis in older and younger women were 25% and 27%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The present work offers a basis for the better modeling of cancer incidence for a population with the inclusion of prevalent cancers.

Changes in and Impact of the Death Review Process in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial

Death review was conducted for the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial to avoid the biases associated with causes of death entered on death certificates. An algorithm selected deaths for review. Records on diagnosis and terminal illness were perused in the coordinating center and by the chair of the death review committee (DRC). Identifying information and randomization arm was removed. Three reviewers independently determined the cause of death. Disagreement was resolved at a meeting of the DRC. This process was subsequently simplified. The cause of death was determined by one DRC member and compared to the death certificate. With agreement the case was finalized. When discordant, the records were sent to a second DRC member. If the reviewers agreed, the case was finalized. If not, a third member reviewed. If two of the three reviewers agreed, the case was sent back to the discordant reviewer. If the reviewer remained discordant the case was resolved by a conference call. Of the 4728 death reviews that were completed, the DRC confirmed the death certificate underlying cause for over 90%. Between 5% and 13% of the certified deaths were regarded as indirect causes of death, associated with the treatment of the ascertained cancer; differential for prostate cancer, 11% in the intervention arm and 6% in the control. Without review, between 1% and 6% of the deaths that occurred would not have been assigned to the relevant PLCO cancer. The DRC completed 76% of those requiring review before the process ceased.

Implementing low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer in Canada: implications of alternative at-risk populations, screening frequency, and duration

BACKGROUND

Low-dose computed tomography (ldct) screening has been shown to reduce mortality from lung cancer; however, the optimal screening duration and "at risk" population are not known.

METHODS

The Cancer Risk Management Model developed by Statistics Canada for the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer includes a lung screening module based on data from the U.S. National Lung Screening Trial (nlst). The base-case scenario reproduces nlst outcomes with high fidelity. The impact in Canada of annual screening on the number of incident cases and life-years gained, with a wider range of age and smoking history eligibility criteria and varied participation rates, was modelled to show the magnitude of clinical benefit nationally and by province. Life-years gained, costs (discounted and undiscounted), and resource requirements were also estimated.

RESULTS

In 2014, 1.4 million Canadians were eligible for screening according to nlst criteria. Over 10 years, screening would detect 12,500 more lung cancers than the expected 268,300 and would gain 9200 life-years. The computed tomography imaging requirement of 24,000-30,000 at program initiation would rise to between 87,000 and 113,000 by the 5th year of an annual nlst-like screening program. Costs would increase from approximately $75 million to $128 million at 10 years, and the cumulative cost nationally over 10 years would approach $1 billion, partially offset by a reduction in the costs of managing advanced lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling various ways in which ldct might be implemented provides decision-makers with estimates of the effect on clinical benefit and on resource needs that clinical trial results are unable to provide.

Response to: “[Yaffe’s] Response to: ‘Beyond the Mammography Debate: A Moderate Perspective’”

In his response to Constantine Kaniklidis and to my colleague Dr. Steven Narod, Martin Yaffe makes two assertions about the Canadian National Breast Screening Study (CNBSS), one of which we have previously responded to; the other, however, is new [...]

Did death certificates and a death review process agree on lung cancer cause of death in the National Lung Screening Trial?

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Randomized controlled trials frequently use death review committees to assign a cause of death rather than relying on cause of death information from death certificates. The National Lung Screening Trial, a randomized controlled trial of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography versus chest X-ray for heavy and/or long-term smokers ages 55-74 years at enrollment, used a committee blinded to arm assignment for a subset of deaths to determine whether cause of death was due to lung cancer.

METHODS

Deaths were selected for review using a pre-determined computerized algorithm. The algorithm, which considered cancers diagnosed during the trial, causes and significant conditions listed on the death certificate, and the underlying cause of death derived from death certificate information by trained nosologists, selected deaths that were most likely to represent a death due to lung cancer (either directly or indirectly) and deaths that might have been erroneously assigned lung cancer as the cause of death. The algorithm also selected deaths that might be due to adverse events of diagnostic evaluation for lung cancer. Using the review cause of death as the gold standard and lung cancer cause of death as the outcome of interest (dichotomized as lung cancer versus not lung cancer), we calculated performance measures of the death certificate cause of death. We also recalculated the trial primary endpoint using the death certificate cause of death.

RESULTS

In all, 1642 deaths were reviewed and assigned a cause of death (42% of the 3877 National Lung Screening Trial deaths). Sensitivity of death certificate cause of death was 91%; specificity, 97%; positive predictive value, 98%; and negative predictive value, 89%. About 40% of the deaths reclassified to lung cancer cause of death had a death certificate cause of death of a neoplasm other than lung. Using the death certificate cause of death, the lung cancer mortality reduction was 18% (95% confidence interval: 4.2-25.0), as compared with the published finding of 20% (95% confidence interval: 6.7-26.7).

CONCLUSION

Death review may not be necessary for primary-outcome analyses in lung cancer screening trials. If deemed necessary, researchers should strive to streamline the death review process as much as possible.

Using the Cancer Risk Management Model to evaluate the health and economic impacts of cytology compared with human papillomavirus DNA testing for primary cervical cancer screening in Canada

BACKGROUND

In Canada, discussion about changing from cytology to human papillomavirus (hpv) dna testing for primary screening in cervical cancer is ongoing. However, the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care has not yet made a recommendation, concluding that the evidence is insufficient.

METHODS

We used the cervical cancer and hpv transmission models of the Cancer Risk Management Model to study the health and economic outcomes of primary cytology compared with hpv dna testing in 14 screening scenarios with varying screening modalities and intervals. Projected cervical cancer cases, deaths, colposcopies, screens, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness were evaluated. We performed sensitivity analyses for hpv dna test costs.

RESULTS

Compared with triennial cytology from age 25, 5-yearly hpv dna screening alone from age 30 resulted in equivalent incident cases and deaths, but 55% (82,000) fewer colposcopies and 43% (1,195,000) fewer screens. At hpv dna screening intervals of 3 years, whether alone or in an age-based sequence with cytology, screening costs are greater, but at intervals of more than 5 years, they are lower. Scenarios on the cost-effectiveness frontier were hpv dna testing alone every 10, 7.5, 5, or 3 years, and triennial cytology starting at age 21 or 25 when combined with hpv dna testing every 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Changing from cytology to hpv dna testing as the primary screening test for cervical cancer would be an acceptable strategy in Canada with respect to incidence, mortality, screening and diagnostic test volumes.

Impact of screening mammography on breast cancer mortality

The degree to which observed reductions in breast cancer mortality is attributable to screening mammography has become increasingly controversial. We examined this issue with three fundamentally different approaches: (i) Chronology--the temporal relationship of the onset of breast cancer mortality decline and the national implementation of screening mammography; (ii) Magnitude--the degree to which breast cancer mortality declined relative to the amount (penetration) of screening mammography; (iii) Analogy--the pattern of mortality rate reductions of other cancers for which population screening is not conducted. Chronology and magnitude were assessed with data from Europe and North America, with three methods applied to magnitude. A comparison of eight countries in Europe and North America does not demonstrate a correlation between the penetration of national screening and either the chronology or magnitude of national breast cancer mortality reduction. In the United States, the magnitude of the mortality decline is greater in the unscreened, younger women than in the screened population and regional variation in the rate of breast cancer mortality reduction is not correlated with screening penetrance, either as self-reported or by the magnitude of screening-induced increase in early-stage disease. Analogy analysis of United States data identifies 14 other cancers with a similar distinct onset of mortality reduction for which screening is not performed. These five lines of evidence from three different approaches and additional observations discussed do not support the hypothesis that mammography screening is a primary reason for the breast cancer mortality reduction in Europe and North America.

Yazd Breast Cancer Project Profile; A Community Based Trial for the Evaluation of Self-Examination and Physical Examination of the Breast Cancer Disease

There is some evidence to suggest that a benefit might be derived from a program that incorporated both annual physical examination of the breast (BPx) and the teaching of breast self-examination (BSE). Current investigation presents the profile of a multicenter community based intervention for evaluating the effect of BSE+BPx on the reduction of morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer amongst women residing in urban areas of Yazd (Iran) from 2008 to 2018. There were three distinctive phases in this trial with 10 years duration: pilot phase with the duration of 1 year, active intervention phase with 4 rounds of annual screening of BPx+BSE and follow up phase with 5 years duration. Tools of enquiry included a pre-tested questionnaire, repeated annual physical examination of the breast and more importantly mammography, sonography, and fine needle aspiration (FNA). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies, percent, mean (SD), tests of chi-square and student t-test with 95% confidence level. Comparison of socio-demographic and socio-economic factors such as age, age at marriage, family size, number of live births, occupation, education level, total family income and marital status showed that no significant difference was seen between the groups (P>0.05). A response rate of 84.5% was seen by participants of the experiment group visiting the health centers for the first BPx. Our results showed that except for the education and marital status, the difference in other main demographic and socio-economic factors between the groups were not significant, and the response rate of individuals in the experiment group was at an acceptable level.

Study designs for determining and comparing sensitivities of disease screening tests

Objective

To investigate the capability of various study designs to determine the sensitivity of a disease screening test.

Methods

Quantities that can be calculated from these designs were derived and examined for their relationship to true sensitivity (the ability to detect unrecognized disease that would surface clinically in the absence of screening) and overdiagnosis.

Results

To examine the sensitivity of one test, the single cohort design, in which all participants receive the test, is particularly weak, providing only an upper bound on the true sensitivity, and yields no information about overdiagnosis. A randomized design, with one control arm and participants tested in the other, that includes sufficient post-screening follow-up, allows calculation of bounds on, and an approximation to, true sensitivity and also determination of overdiagnosis. Without follow-up, bounds on the true sensitivity can be calculated. To compare two tests, the single cohort paired design in which all participants receive both tests is precarious. The three arm randomized design with post screening follow-up is preferred, yielding an approximation to the true sensitivity, bounds on the true sensitivity, and the extent of overdiagnosis of each test. Without post screening follow-up, bounds on the true sensitivities can be calculated. When an unscreened control arm is not possible, the two-arm randomized design is recommended. Individual test sensitivities cannot be determined, but with sufficient post-screening follow-up, an order relationship can be established, as can the difference in overdiagnosis between the two tests.