Tracking elimination of HIV transmission in men who have sex with men in England: a modelling study

Psychological and Behavioural Within-participant Predictors of Adherence to Oral HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP)

Oral PrEP's effectiveness relies on adequate adherence during periods of substantial HIV risk. Since most PrEP users will miss doses, understanding predictors within participants can help to explain adherence. We used a cross-sectional, within-participant design with 67 gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men taking PrEP daily. Using a questionnaire, informed by the Information Motivation Behavioral Skills Model, participants were asked about an adherent and a non-adherent episode. PrEP non-adherence was associated with non-normality of the day (p < .001), being out of the home (p < .001), weekend days (p = .01), having company (p = .02), using substances (p = 0.02), not using reminders (p = .03), lower PrEP information (p = .04), lower behavioural skills (p < .001) and less positive affect (p = .002). PrEP adherence assessment could focus on situational variations, supporting the construction of alternative strategies to facilitate adherence in these situations.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and its implementation in the PrEP Impact Trial in England: a pragmatic health technology assessment

BACKGROUND

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition. To enable routine commissioning of PrEP in England, we aimed to establish population need, duration of need, PrEP uptake, and duration of use in attendees of sexual health services (SHS) in England.

METHODS

The Impact Trial was a prospective, open-label, single-arm, multicentre trial conducted at 157 SHS across England between Oct 13, 2017, and July 12, 2020. Clinicians assessed HIV-negative attendees for their risk of HIV acquisition to identify those who were eligible to participate and receive either daily or event-based oral PrEP (tenofovir disoproxil maleate with emtricitabine), as appropriate. Eligible participants were aged 16 years or older, considered HIV-negative on the day of enrolment, and willing to adhere to the trial procedures. Non-trial attendees are mutually exclusive of trial participants and included SHS attendees who were not recruited to the Impact Trial at any point. They include HIV-negative individuals aged 16 years or older who attended a participating SHS at least once after recruitment at that SHS had begun and before Feb 29, 2020. The main outcomes assessed were PrEP need, uptake, and use, and HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence. Data are presented up to Feb 29, 2020, before the introduction of COVID-19 control measures. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03253757.

FINDINGS

In this analysis, we include 21 356 of 24 268 participants enrolled before Feb 29, 2020. 20 403 participants (95·5%) were men who have sex with men (MSM). Uptake of PrEP among SHS attendees clinically assessed and coded as eligible was 21 292 (57·1%) of 37 289. 18 400 trial participants had at least one post-enrolment visit and a median of 361 days of follow-up (IQR 143-638); 14 039 (75·9%) of these had enough PrEP prescribed to provide protection for 75% of their follow-up time. Among MSM, HIV incidence was 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·19) per 100 person-years in trial participants (27 seroconversions) and 0·95 (95% CI 0·88-1·03) per 100 person-years in non-trial attendees (587 seroconversions; proportionate reduction of 86·8%, 95% CI 80·2-91·6). 18 607 bacterial STIs were recorded (incidence 68·1 per 100 person-years in trial participants who were MSM). 4343 (24·4%) MSM participants were diagnosed with two or more STIs, accounting for 14 800 (79·5%) of all 18 607 diagnoses.

INTERPRETATION

PrEP need was higher than initially estimated by an expert stakeholder group. The high proportion of follow-up time protected by PrEP suggests that the need for protection persisted throughout trial participation for most participants. HIV incidence among MSM trial participants was low. The large unmet need for PrEP suggests that greater provision is required to maximise the potential of a national programme. The high incidence of bacterial STIs among participants, concentrated within a subgroup of PrEP users, presents an opportunity for tailored STI control measures.

FUNDING

NHS England.

Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK.

METHODS

We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence.

RESULTS

Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model's time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97-99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%.

CONCLUSIONS

Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government's 'Towards Zero' Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal.

"Sex without fear": exploring the psychosocial impact of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis on gay men in England

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) experience a high prevalence of psychosocial health problems, such as harmful substance use and depression, as well as being disproportionately affected by HIV. HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) may provide psychosocial benefits beyond its intended purpose of reducing HIV infection. We explore the psychosocial impact of oral PrEP use on gay men in England using qualitative data from the PROUD study. From February 2014 to January 2016, semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 40 gay men and one trans woman. Participants were purposively recruited based on trial arm allocation, adherence, and sexual risk behaviours. By removing HIV risk from sex, PrEP improves users' wellbeing by reducing HIV-related anxiety and internalised stigma and increasing HIV prevention self-efficacy, sexual pleasure, and intimacy. In turn, these psychological changes may influence behaviour in the form of greater sexual freedom, reduced harmful drug use, and more protective sexual health behaviours. However, PrEP may create internal conflict for some gay men, due to its disruption of social norms around condom use and its perceived influence on their sexual behaviour leading to reduced condom self-efficacy. These findings provide a baseline of PrEP's psychosocial impact amongst some of the first PrEP users in England and supports calls to consider the psychosocial impact of PrEP in prescribing guidelines.

The effect of combination prevention strategies on HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men in the UK: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In the UK, the number of new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) has decreased substantially. We aimed to understand the contribution of different interventions in reducing HIV incidence so far; to estimate future HIV incidence with continuation of current policies and with further scaling up of current interventions; and to estimate the maximum additional annual cost that should be spent towards these interventions for them to offer value for money.

METHODS

We calibrated a dynamic, individual-based, stochastic simulation model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple sources of data on HIV among GBMSM aged 15 years or older in the UK. Primarily these were routine HIV surveillance data collected by the UK Health Security Agency. We compared HIV incidence in 2022 with the counterfactual incidence: if HIV testing rates stopped increasing in 2012 and the policy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis was not introduced in mid-2015; if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was not introduced; if condom use was low from 2012 in all GBMSM, at levels similar to those observed in 1980; and in the first and second scenario combined. We also projected future outcomes under the assumption of continuation of current policies and considering increases in PrEP and HIV testing uptake and a decrease in condomless sex.

FINDINGS

Our model estimated a 77% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61-88) decline in HIV incidence since around 2014, with an estimated 597 infections ([90% UI 312-956]; 1·1 per 1000 person-years [90% UI 0·6-1·8]) in men aged 15-64 years in 2022. Both PrEP introduction and increased HIV testing with ART initiation at diagnosis each had a substantial effect on HIV incidence. Without PrEP introduction, we estimate there would have been 2·16 times the number of infections that actually occurred (90% UI 1·06-3·75) between 2012 and 2022; without increased HIV testing and ART initiation at diagnosis there would have been 2·18 times the number of infections that actually occurred (1·18-3·60), and if condomless sex was at the levels before the HIV epidemic, there would have been 2·27 times the number of infections that actually occurred (0·9-5·4). If rates of testing, ART use, and PrEP use remain as they are currently, there is a predicted decline in incidence to 388 HIV infections in 2025 (90% UI 226-650) and to 263 (137-433) in 2030. Increases in HIV testing and PrEP use were predicted to accelerate the decline in HIV incidence. Given the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit and a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained, in order to be cost-effective an additional £1·62 million could be spent per year to increase testing levels by 34% (90% UI 25-46) and PrEP use by 55% (10-107). To achieve that, a 16% reduction in the cost of delivery of testing and PrEP would be required.

INTERPRETATION

Combination prevention, including a PrEP strategy, played a major role in the reduction in HIV incidence observed so far in the UK among GBMSM. Continuation of current activities should lead to a continued decline; however, it is unlikely to lead to reaching the target of fewer than 50 HIV infections per year among GBMSM by 2030. It will be important to reduce costs for testing and PrEP for their continued expansion to be cost-effective.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and Medical Research Council-UK Research and Innovation.

Re-assessing the late HIV diagnosis surveillance definition in the era of increased and frequent testing

OBJECTIVES

Late HIV diagnosis (CD4 <350 cells/mm³ ) is a key public health metric. In an era of more frequent testing, the likelihood of HIV diagnosis occurring during seroconversion, when CD4 counts may dip below 350, is greater. We applied a correction, considering markers of recent infection, and re-assessed 1-year mortality following late diagnosis.

METHODS

We used national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data from all people diagnosed with HIV in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (EW&NI). Those with a baseline CD4 <350 were reclassified as 'not late' if they had evidence of recent infection (recency test and/or negative test within 24 months). A correction factor (CF) was the number reclassified divided by the number with a CD4 <350.

RESULTS

Of the 32 227 people diagnosed with HIV in EW&NI between 2011 and 2019 with a baseline CD4 (81% of total), 46% had a CD4 <350 (uncorrected late diagnosis rate): 34% of gay and bisexual men (GBM), 65% of heterosexual men, and 56% of heterosexual women. Accounting for recency test and/or prior negative tests gave a 'corrected' late diagnosis rate of 39% and corresponding CF of 14%. The CF increased from 10% to 18% during 2011-2015, then plateaued, and was larger among GBM (25%) than heterosexual men and women (6% and 7%, respectively). One-year mortality among people diagnosed late was 329 per 10 000 after reclassification (an increase from 288/10 000).

CONCLUSIONS

The case-surveillance definition of late diagnosis increasingly overestimates late presentation, the extent of which differs by key populations. Adjustment of late diagnosis is recommended, particularly for frequent testers such as GBM.

PrEP use and unmet PrEP-need among men who have sex with men in London prior to the implementation of a national PrEP programme, a cross-sectional study from June to August 2019

Background

Access to prevention options, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), remains a public health priority for gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), especially in London. We describe PrEP use in a London community sample of MSM before the introduction of a national PrEP programme in October 2020.

Methods

From June–August 2019, MSM aged ≥ 18 recruited from London commercial venues were asked to self-complete a sexual health questionnaire and provide an oral fluid sample for anonymous HIV antibody testing. Descriptive analyses of demographic characteristics, service engagement and outcomes, as well as sexual risk and prevention behaviours were examined in the survey population and in those reporting current PrEP use. We performed sequential, multivariate analyses examining current PrEP use in MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status with identified PrEP-need defined as the report of condomless anal sex (CAS) in the last three months, or the report of CAS (in the last year) with an HIV-positive/unknown status partner not known to be on HIV treatment, in reflection of UK PrEP guidelines.

Results

One thousand five hundred and thirty-fifth questionnaires were completed across 34 venues, where 1408 were analysed. One in five MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status reported current PrEP use (19.7%, 242/1230). In men with PrEP-need, 68.2% (431/632) did not report current use. Current PrEP use was associated with age (aOR: 3.52, 95% CI: 1.76–7.02 in men aged 40–44 vs men aged 18–25) and education (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.01–2.92 in men with ≥ 2 years/still full-time vs no/ < 2 years of education since age 16).

Conclusion

Among MSM in London, PrEP use is high but there is indication of unmet PrEP-need in men of younger age and lower levels of post-16 education. National programme monitoring and evaluation will require continued community monitoring to guide interventions ensuring equitable PrEP access and uptake in those who could most benefit from PrEP.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13425-0.

Association between rectal gonorrhoea and HIV incidence in men who have sex with men: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Incidence of rectal gonorrhoea (GC) has been hypothesised as a correlate of HIV exposure in prevention trials of men who have sex with men (MSM). High rectal GC incidence in MSM trials of new biomedical prevention drugs may provide supportive evidence for ongoing HIV risk. Empirical evidence of correlation between rectal GC and HIV incidence is needed to assess whether high rectal GC rates reliably correlate with high risk of HIV.

METHODS

Rectal GC and HIV are routinely tested in sexual health clinics (SHCs) throughout England. Through routine surveillance data collected at visits to SHCs, we assessed HIV incidence and new rectal GC diagnoses in repeat visits by HIV-negative MSM between 2011 and 2018, predating widespread roll-out of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Meta-analysis regression assessed population-level association between HIV and rectal GC incidence over time.

FINDINGS

Between 2011 and 2018, HIV and rectal GC incidence was assessed in 541 056 HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs in England. HIV incidence among MSM attending SHCs fell from 1.26/100 person-years (PYs) in 2011 to 0.28/100 PYs in 2018. Rectal GC rates increased from 3.5/100 PYs to 11.1/100 PYs over the same period. The rate of HIV incidence decreased by 22.3% for each percent increase in rectal GC (95% CI -30.8 to -14.7, p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Among the population of MSM attending SHCs in England, rectal GC rates increased substantially while HIV incidence rates decreased between 2011 and 2018. HIV incidence likely decreased through expanded HIV testing, prompt antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and increased viral suppression in persons living with HIV, interventions that did not decrease rectal GC. Rectal GC may not be an ideal proxy for HIV incidence in trials, as HIV exposure risk is complex and context dependent, given effective HIV prevention interventions in MSM.

INTRODUCTION

Trends in undiagnosed HIV prevalence in England and implications for eliminating HIV transmission by 2030: an evidence synthesis model

BACKGROUND

A target to eliminate HIV transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. This study aimed to estimate trends from 2013 to 2019 in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group, and region. These estimates are essential to monitor progress towards elimination.

METHODS

A Bayesian synthesis of evidence from multiple surveillance, demographic, and survey datasets relevant to HIV in England was used to estimate trends in the number of people living with HIV, the proportion of people unaware of their HIV infection, and the corresponding prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. All estimates were stratified by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group (15-34, 35-44, 45-59, or 60-74 years), region (London, or outside of London) and year (2013-19).

FINDINGS

The total number of people living with HIV aged 15-74 years in England increased from 83 500 (95% credible interval 80 200-89 600) in 2013 to 92 800 (91 000-95 600) in 2019. The proportion diagnosed steadily increased from 86% (80-90%) to 94% (91-95%) during the same time period, corresponding to a halving in the number of undiagnosed infections from 11 600 (8300-17 700) to 5900 (4400-8700) and in undiagnosed prevalence from 0·29 (0·21-0·44) to 0·14 (0·11-0·21) per 1000 population. Similar steep declines were estimated in all subgroups of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men and in most subgroups of Black African heterosexuals. The pace of reduction was less pronounced for heterosexuals in other ethnic groups and people who inject drugs, particularly outside London; however, undiagnosed prevalence in these groups has remained very low.

INTERPRETATION

The UNAIDS target of diagnosing 90% of people living with HIV by 2020 was reached by 2016 in England, with the country on track to achieve the new target of 95% diagnosed by 2025. Reductions in transmission and undiagnosed prevalence have corresponded to large scale-up of testing in key populations and early diagnosis and treatment. Additional and intensified prevention measures are required to eliminate transmission of HIV among the communities that have experienced slower declines than other subgroups, despite having very low prevalences of HIV.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and Public Health England.