Measles elimination in Italy: projected impact of the National Elimination Plan

Optimization of COVID-19 vaccination and the role of individuals with a high number of contacts: A model based approach

We report strong evidence of the importance of contact hubs (or superspreaders) in mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. Contact hubs have a much larger number of contacts than the average in the population, and play a key role on the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. By using an age-structures compartmental SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) model, calibrated from available demographic and COVID-19 incidence, and considering separately those individuals with a much greater number of contacts than the average in the population, we show that carefully choosing who will compose the first group to be vaccinated can impact positively the total death toll and the demand for health services. This is even more relevant in countries with a lack of basic resources for proper vaccination and a significant reduction in social isolation. In order to demonstrate our approach we show the effect of hypothetical vaccination scenarios in two countries of very different scales and mitigation policies, Brazil and Portugal.

The potential impact of the demographic transition in the Senegal-Gambia region of sub-Saharan Africa on the burden of infectious disease and its potential synergies with control programmes: the case of hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to suffer high communicable disease burdens as its demographic transition (DT) proceeds. Although the consequent changes in population structures influence age-specific contact patterns relevant for transmission, the age distribution of immunity, and the disease burden, investigation of the potential of DT to affect infectious disease epidemiology in regions of SSA has hitherto been overlooked. With a substantial disease burden and complex epidemiology, hepatitis B virus (HBV) represents a prime example of an infection whose epidemiology may be significantly influenced by the DT.

METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model for HBV in the Senegal and Gambia (SG) region was set within a demographic framework with varying vital rates mirroring the entire course of the DT there over 1850-2100, to investigate the effects of the DT on HBV epidemiology, with and without the combined action of vaccination. The model was run from its reconstructed ancien régime (old order) demo-epidemiologic equilibrium and calibrated against SG 1950 age-distribution estimates and Gambian pre-vaccination HBV age-prevalence data.

RESULTS

The model, which reproduced well demographic and HBV age-prevalence data, predicted a complex transition of HBV epidemiology over the course of the DT. This included a prolonged epoch of expansion alongside population growth and rejuvenation until 1990-2000, followed by a dramatic retreat, mainly reflecting projected fertility decline during the twenty-first century. This transitional pattern was mostly explained by the underlying demographically driven changes in horizontal transmission resulting from the changes in the age structure of the population. During 2000-2150 the HBV burden is predicted to decline by more than 70% even in the absence of vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Demographic change alone may strongly affect HBV disease burden and shape HBV endemicity. The onset of the demographically driven decline in HBV prevalence, aligned with the expansion of HBV vaccination, forms a synergy potentially boosting effectiveness of control. Such a synergy currently appears to be presenting a "window of opportunity" facilitating HBV elimination which it would be important to exploit and which underlines the importance of taking demographic change into account when assessing the potential longer term impact of vaccination and other control measures.

Lack of immunity against rubella among Italian young adults

BACKGROUND

To support the evaluation of the 2010-15 National Plan for Measles and Congenital Rubella Elimination, the authors designed and performed a serosurveillance survey to verify the immunity/susceptibility rate against rubella among Apulian young adults.

METHODS

The study was carried out from May 2011 to June 2012 in the Department of Transfusion Medicine/Blood Bank of Policlinico General Hospital in Bari. Subjects were enrolled by a convenience sampling. For each enrolled patient a 5 ml serum sample was collected and tested for anti-rubella IgG. The geometrical means (GMT) of anti-rubella IgG was calculated. T student test or ANOVA test, when appropriate, was used to compare the means of age per gender and GMT of anti-rubella IgG titres per age classes. Chi-square test was used to compare the proportion of anti-rubella IgG positive subjects per gender and per age classes. For all tests, a p value <0.05 was considered as significant.

RESULTS

At the end of the study 1764 subjects were enrolled, 1362 (77.2%) of which were male. The mean age was 38.4 ± 11.7 years (range: 17-65). 86.7% (95% CI = 85.0-88.2) had a positive titre of anti-rubella IgG. GMT of anti-rubella IgG titre was 4.3. The proportion of positive subjects was of 76.8% (n = 279/363; 95% CI = 72.2-81.1) in persons aged 18-26 years; 88.1% (n = 310/352; 95% CI = 84.2-91.3) in 27-35 year-old people; 88.5% (n = 464/524; 95% CI = 85.5-91.1) in 36-45 year-old people; 90.7% (n = 350/386; 95% CI = 87.3-93.4) among people aged 46-55 years and 90.6% (n = 126/139; 95% CI = 84.5-94.9) in 55-65 year-old people (Chi-square = 39.7; p < 0.0001). GMT of anti-rubella IgG titre was 4.3 (4.3 in male and 4.2 in female, t = 2.2; p = 0.03) and seems to differ dividing the enrolled subjects by age group (F = 14.3; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

According to our data, too many women of child-bearing age are still unprotected from rubella in the elimination era and in this scenario the public health efforts should be oriented to catch-up activities.

Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis

The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care.

Effectiveness assessment of vaccination policy against measles epidemic in Japan using an age-time two-dimensional mathematical model

OBJECTIVES

In 2007, measles prevailed among the youth and young adult population in Japan, creating in a serious social problem. Among the developed countries, Japan has a relatively high incidence of measles. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of improvements in the vaccination policy against measles through simulations.

METHODS

We developed an age-time two-dimensional model for the transmission of measles to reflect an age structure, enabling contact rate to be selected by age. Introduction of the maternal immunity class into the model allowed natural infection and vaccination to be discriminated along the course of an infant's mother acquiring the immunity, thereby resulting in an improved accuracy of the simulations in infants. Several vaccination scenarios were attempted in order to assess the influence of various vaccination policies on the prevention of a measles epidemic.

RESULTS

The results of this quantitative study indicated that suppression of a measles outbreak requires the maintenance of high vaccine coverage and that a decline in vaccine coverage may result in a measles epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The present standard immunization program for measles will maintain an acceptable level of immunity and is therefore associated with a low risk of an epidemic after discontinuation of the third and fourth stages as scheduled--as long as at least 90% vaccine coverage of the first and second is maintained. The simulation results show that discontinuation of the third and fourth stages of vaccination as scheduled should be accompanied by endeavors to maintain appropriate high vaccine coverage of the first and second stages.

Genetic characterization of measles virus strains isolated during an epidemic cluster in Puglia, Italy 2006-2007

The genetic characterization of wild-type measles strains isolated during an epidemic cluster of measles occurred in Puglia (South Italy), between November 2006 and January 2007, was performed. Measles virus (MV) detection was carried out by a nested RT-PCR on 8 of 18 total cases. The viruses were analyzed using the standard genotyping protocols. The N gene sequences of the strains from outbreak were identical to each other, and sequence analysis revealed that the viruses belonged to genotype B3, subgroup B3.1, never identified before in Italy. An importation of measles B3.1 strains from Africa was hypothesized. Molecular surveillance will help to monitor the progress in measles elimination.

Progress in Italy in control and elimination of measles and congenital rubella

After a long period of inadequate vaccination coverage, Italy implemented a National Elimination Plan for Measles and Congenital Rubella in 2003, in order to reach the objective by 2010, according to the goals of World Health Organization (WHO) in the European Region. Concerted efforts have been made in the last years in all Italian Regions, leading to substantial increase of coverage both at 24 months of age and in older children, also thanks to a special campaign addressed to school-age subjects. Measles and rubella are at historical lows, although several limited outbreaks occurred in 2006. However, such outbreaks gave the opportunity to show that lab surveillance of cases, identification of contacts and their rapid immunisation are feasible and able to stop further spread of infection. The re-introduction in 2005 of compulsory notification for congenital rubella and rubella during pregnancy has a key role in the evaluation of needs for women at fertile age and to address efforts of vaccination to risk groups, like immigrant women. Although further actions need to be pursued, the increase of vaccination coverage and the strong commitment of the Italian public health service in the Elimination Plan suggest that phase II of measles control is approaching and that final elimination of measles and congenital rubella can be reached in Italy.

Modelling vaccination programmes against measles in Taiwan

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against measles. We reappraise measles seroepidemiological data in Taiwan from 1974 to 2004 having robust age-stratified serological information on exposure and immunity to quantitatively characterize measles vaccination programmes. We dynamically model measles seroepidemiology to estimate age-dependent intensity of infection associated with the effects of different contact patterns on pre- and post-vaccination. The WAIFM (who acquires infection from whom) contact matrix is employed to describe the transmission between and within each age group. A deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery) model is used to capture subpopulation dynamics. Our study shows that mass regional or nationwide vaccination programmes could greatly reduce the potential for a major measles epidemic and have strong direct effects on the potential impact of childhood vaccination. We parameterize a predictive model that should reduce the socio-economic costs of measles surveillance in Taiwan and thereby encourage its continuance, especially for preschool children.