Estimation of Unit Process Data for Life Cycle Assessment Using a Decision Tree-Based Approach

Mapping Flows, Stocks, Plastic Emissions, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Polyurethanes: Decoding Challenges and Pollution Prevention Pathways in China

Global demand for polyurethanes (PUs) has steadily been increasing. However, knowledge about PUs' anthropogenic cycles and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remains incomplete, hindering effective decision-making. This study employs dynamic material flow analysis to trace PU cycles in China (accounting for 45% of the global market in 2022) from 1958 to 2022, combined with scenario analysis for pollution mitigation. Given the technological advancements in PU production processes, the production volume of PUs in China in 2022 was 11 times that of 2000. The in-use stocks of PUs surged to 9.09 × 1010 kg in 2022, with the construction sectors contributing over 30.0%. The textiles, apparel, and footwear sector generated the greatest volume of PU waste, accounting for 41.4% of the total in 2022. Approximately 65.5% of PU plastic emissions were microplastics, mainly concentrated in soil. The production stage, especially the production of PU foams (1.88 × 1010 kg CO2e in 2022), dominated the total GHG emissions. Scenario analysis suggests that combined interventions targeting all stages could reduce PU plastic and GHG emissions by over 30.0% and 15.0% in 2060, respectively. The findings offer data-driven insights for the sustainable development of the PU industry and combating the global plastic crisis.

Predicting Cd accumulation in crops and identifying nonlinear effects of multiple environmental factors based on machine learning models

The traditional prediction of the Cd content in grains (Cdg) of crops primarily relies on the multiple linear regression models based on soil Cd content (Cds) and pH, neglecting inter-factorial interactions and nonlinear causal links between external environmental factors and Cdg. In this study, a comprehensive index system of multi-type environmental factors including soil properties, geology, climate, and anthropogenic activity was constructed. The machine learning models of the tree-based ensemble, support vector regression, artificial neural network for predicting Cdg of rice and wheat based on the environmental factor indexes significantly improved the accuracy than the traditional models of linear regression based on soil properties. Among them, the tree-based ensemble models of XGboost and random forest exhibited highest accuracies for predicting Cdg of rice and wheat, with R2 in the test dataset of 0.349 and 0.546, respectively. This study found that soil properties, including Cds, pH, and clay, have greater impacts on Cdg of rice and wheat, with combined contribution rates accounting for 65.2 % and 29.7 % respectively. Since wheat sampling areas are located in central and northern China, they are more constrained by precipitation and temperature than rice sampling areas in the south. Geologic and climate factors have a greater impact on Cdg of wheat, with a combined contribution rate of 49.9 %, which is higher than the corresponding rate of 20.9 % in rice. Furthermore, the Cdg of rice and wheat did not exhibit an absolute linear relationship with Cds, and excessively high Cds can reduce the bioconcentration factor of Cd accumulation in crops. Meanwhile, other environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, elevation have marginal effects on the increase of Cdg of crops. This study provides a novel framework to optimize traditional soil plant transfer models, as well as offer a step towards realizing high precision prediction of Cd content in crops.

Mitigating Grand Challenges in Life Cycle Inventory Modeling through the Applications of Large Language Models

The accuracy of life cycle assessment (LCA) studies is often questioned due to the two grand challenges of life cycle inventory (LCI) modeling: (1) missing foreground flow data and (2) inconsistency in background data matching. Traditional mechanistic methods (e.g., process simulation) and existing machine learning (ML) methods (e.g., similarity-based selection methods) are inadequate due to their limitations in scalability and generalizability. The large language models (LLMs) are well-positioned to address these challenges, given the massive and diverse knowledge learned through the pretraining step. Incorporating LLMs into LCI modeling can lead to the automation of inventory data curation from diverse data sources and to the implementation of a multimodal analytical capacity. In this article, we delineated the mechanisms and advantages of LLMs to addressing these two grand challenges. We also discussed the future research to enhance the use of LLMs for LCI modeling, which includes the key areas such as improving retrieval augmented generation (RAG), integration with knowledge graphs, developing prompt engineering strategies, and fine-tuning pretrained LLMs for LCI-specific tasks. The findings from our study serve as a foundation for future research on scalable and automated LCI modeling methods that can provide more appropriate data for LCA calculations.

Decision tree-based approach to extrapolate life cycle inventory data of manufacturing processes

Life cycle assessment (LCA) plays a crucial role in green manufacturing to uncover the critical aspects for alleviating the environmental burdens due to manufacturing processes. However, the scarcity of life cycle inventory (LCI) data for the manufacturing processes is a considerable challenge. This paper proposes a novel approach to extrapolate LCI data of manufacturing processes. Taking advantage of LCI data in the Ecoinvent datasets, decision tree-based supervised machine learning models, namely decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, and adaptive boosting, have been developed to extrapolate the data of GHG emissions, i.e., carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and water vapor. Initially, a correlation analysis was conducted to derive the most influential factors on GHG quantities resulting from manufacturing activities. First, the collected data have been preprocessed and split into train and test sets (70% and 30%, respectively). Second, a five-fold cross-validation method was applied to tune the hyperparameters of the models. Then, the models were re-trained using the best hyperparameters and evaluated using the test set. The results reveal that the Gradient Boosting model has a superior predictive performance for extrapolating the GHG emission data, with average coefficients of determination (R2) on the test set <0.95. Moreover, the model predictions involve relatively low values of the average root mean squared error and an average mean percentage of error on the test set. The correlation and feature importance analyses emphasized that the workpiece material and manufacturing technology have a considerable effect on natural resource consumption, i.e., energy, material, and water inflows into the process. Meanwhile, energy consumption, water usage, and raw aluminum depletion were the most influential factors in GHG emissions. Eventually, a case study to extrapolate the inflows and the outflows for new manufacturing activities has been conducted using the validated models. The proposed GraBoost model provides a computational supplementary approach to estimate and extrapolate the GHG emissions for different manufacturing processes when LCI data are incomplete or don't exist within LCI databases.

Exploring pollutant joint effects in disease through interpretable machine learning

Identifying the impact of pollutants on diseases is crucial. However, assessing the health risks posed by the interplay of multiple pollutants is challenging. This study introduces the concept of Pollutants Outcome Disease, integrating multidisciplinary knowledge and employing explainable artificial intelligence (AI) to explore the joint effects of industrial pollutants on diseases. Using lung cancer as a representative case study, an extreme gradient boosting predictive model that integrates meteorological, socio-economic, pollutants, and lung cancer statistical data is developed. The joint effects of industrial pollutants on lung cancer are identified and analyzed by employing the SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) interpretable machine learning technique. Results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in emissions from CPG and ILC, highlighting pronounced nonlinear relationships among variables. The model yielded strong predictions (an R of 0.954, an RMSE of 4283, and an R2 of 0.911) and emphasized the impact of pollutant emission amounts on lung cancer responses. Diverse joint effects patterns were observed, varying in terms of patterns, regions (frequency), and the extent of antagonistic and synergistic effects among pollutants. The study provides a new perspective for exploring the joint effects of pollutants on diseases and demonstrates the potential of AI technology to assist scientific discovery.

Machine Learning Models for Inverse Design of the Electrochemical Oxidation Process for Water Purification

In this study, a machine learning (ML) framework is developed toward target-oriented inverse design of the electrochemical oxidation (EO) process for water purification. The XGBoost model exhibited the best performances for prediction of reaction rate (k) based on training the data set relevant to pollutant characteristics and reaction conditions, indicated by Rext2 of 0.84 and RMSEext of 0.79. Based on 315 data points collected from the literature, the current density, pollutant concentration, and gap energy (Egap) were identified to be the most impactful parameters available for the inverse design of the EO process. In particular, adding reaction conditions as model input features allowed provision of more available information and an increase in the sample size of the data set to improve the model accuracy. The feature importance analysis was performed for revealing the data pattern and feature interpretation by using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The ML-based inverse design for the EO process was generalized to a random case for tailoring the optimum conditions with phenol and 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) serving as model pollutants. The resulting predicted k values were close to the experimental k values by experimental verification, accounting for the relative error lower than 5%. This study provides a paradigm shift from conventional trial-and-error mode to data-driven mode for advancing research and development of the EO process by a time-saving, labor-effective, and environmentally friendly target-oriented strategy, which makes electrochemical water purification more efficient, more economic, and more sustainable in the context of global carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Improved Machine Learning Models by Data Processing for Predicting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Chemicals

Machine learning (ML) provides an efficient manner for rapid prediction of the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals, but challenges remain due to low prediction accuracy and poor interpretability of the models. To address these issues, we focused on data processing by using a mutual information-permutation importance (MI-PI) feature selection method to filter out irrelevant molecular descriptors from the input data, which improved the model interpretability by preserving the physicochemical meanings of original molecular descriptors without generation of new variables. We also applied a weighted Euclidean distance method to mine the data most relevant to the predicted targets by quantifying the contribution of each feature, thereby the prediction accuracy was improved. On the basis of above data processing, we developed artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals with R² values of 0.81, 0.81, 0.84, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.86 for global warming, human health, metal depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity, particulate matter formation, and terrestrial acidification, respectively. The ML models were interpreted using the Shapley additive explanation method by quantifying the contribution of each input molecular descriptor to environmental impact categories. This work suggests that the combination of feature selection by MI-PI and source data selection based on weighted Euclidean distance has a promising potential to improve the accuracy and interpretability of the models for predicting the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals.

Review of explainable machine learning for anaerobic digestion

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a promising technology for recovering value-added resources from organic waste, thus achieving sustainable waste management. The performance of AD is dictated by a variety of factors including system design and operating conditions. This necessitates developing suitable modelling and optimization tools to quantify its off-design performance, where the application of machine learning (ML) and soft computing approaches have received increasing attention. Here, we succinctly reviewed the latest progress in black-box ML approaches for AD modelling with a thrust on global and local model interpretability metrics (e.g., Shapley values, partial dependence analysis, permutation feature importance). Categorical applications of the ML and soft computing approaches such as what-if scenario analysis, fault detection in AD systems, long-term operation prediction, and integration of ML with life cycle assessment are discussed. Finally, the research gaps and scopes for future work are summarized.

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for the Electrochemical Oxidation Wastewater Treatment Process: From Laboratory to Industrial Scale

Electrochemical oxidation (EO) is a promising technology for water purification, but indirect environmental burdens may arise in association with consumption of materials and energy during electrode preparation and process operation. This study evaluated the life cycle environmental impacts of emerging EO technology from laboratory scale to industrial scale using prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) on a quantitative basis. Environmental impacts of EO technology were assessed at laboratory scale by comparing three representative anode materials (SnO2, PbO2, and boron-doped diamond) and other two typical processes (adsorption and Fenton method), which verified the competitiveness of the EO process and identified the key factors to environmental hotspots. Thereafter, LCA of scale-up EO was performed to offer guidance for practical application, and the life cycle inventory was compiled upon thermodynamic and kinetic simulations, empirical calculation rules, and similar technical information. Results demonstrated EO to be effective for destructing recalcitrant organic pollutants, but visible direct benefits might be outweighed by increased indirect environmental burdens associated with the preparation of anode materials, use of electrolytes, and energy consumption during the operation stage at both laboratory scale and larger scale. This necessitated attention to overall life cycle profiles by taking into account reactor design, anode materials, electrolyte and flow pattern, and decentralized location with a large share of renewable power station and rigorous contamination control strategies for wastewater treatment plants.

Integrated crop-livestock-bioenergy system brings co-benefits and trade-offs in mitigating the environmental impacts of Chinese agriculture

Agricultural bioenergy utilization relies on crop and livestock production, favouring an integrated crop-livestock-bioenergy production model. Yet the integrated system's exact contribution to mitigating various environmental burdens from the crop production system and livestock production system remains unclear. Here we inventory the environmental impacts of each process in three subsystems at both national and regional scales in China, ultimately identifying key processes and impact categories. The co-benefits and trade-offs in nine impact categories are investigated by comparing the life cycle impacts in the background scenario (crop production system + livestock production system) and foreground scenario (integrated system). Freshwater eutrophication is the most serious impact category in both scenarios. Except terrestrial acidification, the mitigation effects on the other eight impact categories vary from 1.8% to 94.8%, attributed to fossil energy and chemical fertilizer offsets. Environmental trade-offs should be deliberated when expanding bioenergy utilization in the identified critical regions.

Evaluating the capability of municipal solid waste separation in China based on AHP-EWM and BP neural network

With the increase in municipal solid waste (MSW), most cities face solid waste management issues. In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were improved to assess the MSW separation capability based on 18 selected indicators of solid waste separation in 15 cities in China. The entropy weight method (EWM) was used in AHP to optimize and determine the indicators and then evaluate their weights, which showed that the general public budget expenditure had the highest weight (0.5239). This implied that the MSW separation capability could be mainly influenced by government financial support. ANN based on scan optimization and machine learning methods were established (R² = 0.9992) to predict the missing indicators. The mapping relationship between MSW separation indicators and capabilities was also significantly improved from R² = 0.5317 to R² = 0.9993, thereby increasing the prediction accuracy of MSW separation capabilities to 95.15%. Thus, this research provides a new avenue for MSW separation and establishes a combined model to predict the separation capability in practical applications.