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Zhang X, Li L, Xie Z, Ma J, Li YF, Cai M, Ren NQ, Kallenborn R, Zhang ZF, Zhang X, C.G. Muir D. Exploring global oceanic persistence and ecological effects of legacy persistent organic pollutants across five decades. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eado5534. [PMID: 39321284 PMCID: PMC11423884 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado5534] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 08/21/2024] [Indexed: 09/27/2024]
Abstract
Global monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has intensified following regulatory efforts aimed at reducing their release. In this context, we compiled over 10,000 POP measurements, reported from 1980 to 2023, to assess the effectiveness of these legislative measures in the global marine environments. While a general decreasing trend in legacy POP concentrations is evident across various maritime regions, highlighting the success of source control measures, the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas have experienced a rise in POP levels. This increase suggests the northward migration of pollutants via ocean currents from mid-latitude regions to polar areas. Despite global efforts to reduce emissions, the continued transport and accumulation of pollutants to the Arctic regions may have substantial ecological impacts. Addressing these environmental challenges demands a thorough understanding of POP dynamics, including response times, multiphase transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Continued research into these processes is vital to accurately map their distribution and temporal variations within marine systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xue Zhang
- International Joint Research Center for Persistent Toxic Substances (IJRC-PTS), State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- International Joint Research Center for Arctic Environment and Ecosystem (IJRC-AEE), Polar Academy, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H4B 1R6, Canada
| | - Li Li
- School of Public Health, University of Nevada, Reno NV 89557, USA
| | - Zhiyong Xie
- Institute of Coastal Environmental Chemistry, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht 21502, Germany
| | - Jianmin Ma
- Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yi-Fan Li
- International Joint Research Center for Persistent Toxic Substances (IJRC-PTS), State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- International Joint Research Center for Arctic Environment and Ecosystem (IJRC-AEE), Polar Academy, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- IJRC-PTS-NA, Toronto, Ontario M2N 6X9, Canada
| | - Minghong Cai
- Key Laboratory of Polar Science, Ministry of Natural Resources, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China
- School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
| | - Nan-Qi Ren
- International Joint Research Center for Persistent Toxic Substances (IJRC-PTS), State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- International Joint Research Center for Arctic Environment and Ecosystem (IJRC-AEE), Polar Academy, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
| | - Roland Kallenborn
- Faculty of Chemistry, Biotechnology and Food Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås 1430, Norway
- University of the Arctic, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Zi-Feng Zhang
- International Joint Research Center for Persistent Toxic Substances (IJRC-PTS), State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
- International Joint Research Center for Arctic Environment and Ecosystem (IJRC-AEE), Polar Academy, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
| | - Xianming Zhang
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H4B 1R6, Canada
- Department of Geography, Planning & Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada
| | - Derek C.G. Muir
- Aquatic Contaminants Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S1A1, Canada
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Wang S, Wu X, Yuan Z. Residual levels, phase distributions, and human health risks of OCPs in the middle reach of the Huai River, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:22012-22023. [PMID: 38400976 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32534-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2024] [Indexed: 02/26/2024]
Abstract
Are the residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in freshwater in China still of concern after prohibition and restriction for decades? The scarcity of monitoring data on OCPs in freshwater in China over the past few years has hampered understanding of this issue. In this study, water and suspended particulate matter (SPM) samples were collected from the middle reach of the Huai River for OCP analyses. Residues of ∑OCPs in water and SPM ranged from ND to 8.6 ng L-1 and 0.50 to 179 ng L-1, with mean concentrations of 1.7 ± 1.3 ng L-1 and 6.1 ± 31 ng L-1, respectively. ∑HCHs (α-, β-, γ-, and δ-HCH) and ∑HEPTs (heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide) were the most predominant pesticides in the dissolved phase and SPM, respectively, accounting for 43 ± 35% and 27 ± 29% of ∑OCPs. HCHs and heptachlor epoxide mainly existed in the dissolved phase, while heptachlor mainly existed in SPM. The isomeric composition pattern of HCHs in water differed from that in SPM. Briefly, β-HCH dominated in water, while δ-HCH dominated in SPM. However, the composition pattern of DDT and its metabolites in water was similar to that in SPM. o,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDE dominated in both water and SPM. The ratios of α-/γ-HCH and (DDD + DDE)/DDTs indicated that HCHs and DDTs were mainly derived from historical residues. Risk assessments indicated that OCPs may not pose carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shanshan Wang
- Anhui Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Water and Soil Pollution Control and Remediation, School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China
- Wuhu Dongyuan New Country Developing Co., Ltd, Wuhu, Anhui, 241000, People's Republic of China
- Center of Cooperative Innovation for Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Wanjiang City Belt, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China
- CAS Key Laboratory of Crust-Mantle Materials and Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China
| | - Xiaoguo Wu
- Anhui Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Water and Soil Pollution Control and Remediation, School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China.
- Center of Cooperative Innovation for Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Wanjiang City Belt, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China.
| | - Zijiao Yuan
- Anhui Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Water and Soil Pollution Control and Remediation, School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China
- Center of Cooperative Innovation for Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Wanjiang City Belt, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, People's Republic of China
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Pagano JJ, Garner AJ. Temporal Trends of Great Lakes Legacy Contaminants: Ecological and Biological Considerations Applying the Age-Trend Model. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:2514-2527. [PMID: 38252621 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c09145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
The USEPA Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP) has been monitoring top predator lake trout and walleye contaminant concentrations since the early 1970s. Our research revealed that select legacy contaminant groups (∑PCBs, ∑DDTs, ∑chlordanes, and ∑5PBDEs) have similar t1/2 and k2 values across the Great Lakes, with the exception of both Lake Erie sites and the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site. The slower halving times determined at both Lake Erie sites are consistent with legacy contaminant remobilization due to extreme weather climate effects and past remedial actions on the Detroit River, whereas the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site demonstrates contaminant halving times approaching the exponential minimum. Overall, Great Lakes select contaminant groupings have decreased between 25.8 and 97.9% since 2004. An age-normalized Great Lakes Contaminant Index (GLCI) was devised, indicating both Lake Michigan sites as the most highly impacted. The mean absolute deviation statistic was applied, documenting the need to age-correct contaminant trends due to highly variable age profiles. With the noted exceptions, the uniformity of age-corrected trend modeling suggests that a combination of the fundamental biological and physicochemical mechanisms of natural contaminant sequestration, declining dissolved water concentrations, accumulation/metabolism/depuration, and the overall reduction of legacy contaminant loading are driving the generally consistent rates of declines in the Great Lakes. Many of the biological and ecological stressors currently associated with climate change appear to be accounted for by the age-trend model.
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Affiliation(s)
- James J Pagano
- Center for Air and Aquatic Resources Engineering and Science, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York 13699, United States
| | - Andrew J Garner
- General Dynamics Information Technology, 3170 Fairview Park Drive, Falls Church, Virginia 22042, United States
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Luarte T, Hirmas-Olivares A, Höfer J, Giesecke R, Mestre M, Guajardo-Leiva S, Castro-Nallar E, Pérez-Parada A, Chiang G, Lohmann R, Dachs J, Nash SB, Pulgar J, Pozo K, Přibylová PP, Martiník J, Galbán-Malagón C. Occurrence and diffusive air-seawater exchanges of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Fildes Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 908:168323. [PMID: 37949125 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2023] [Revised: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
We report the levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in seawater and air, and the air-sea dynamics through diffusive exchange analysis in Fildes Bay, King George Island, Antarctica, between November 2019 and January 30, 2020. Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was the most abundant compound in both air and seawater with concentrations around 39 ± 2.1 pg m-3 and 3.2 ± 2.4 pg L-1 respectively. The most abundant PCB congener was PCB 11, with a mean of 3.16 ± 3.7 pg m-3 in air and 2.0 ± 1.1 pg L-1 in seawater. The fugacity gradient estimated for the OCP compounds indicate a predominance of net atmospheric deposition for HCB, α-HCH, γ-HCH, 4,4'-DDT, 4,4'-DDE and close to equilibrium for the PeCB compound. The observed deposition of some OCs may be driven by high biodegradation rates and/or settling fluxes decreasing the concentration of these compounds in surface waters, which is supported by the capacity of microbial consortium to degrade some of these compounds. The estimated fugacity gradients for PCBs showed differences between congeners, with net volatilization predominating for PCB-9, a trend close to equilibrium for PCB congeners 11, 28, 52, 101, 118, 138, and 153, and deposition for PCB 180. Snow amplification may play an important role for less hydrophobic PCBs, with volatilization predominating after snow/glacier melting. As hydrophobicity increases, the biological pump decreases the concentration of PCBs in seawater, reversing the fugacity gradient to atmospheric deposition. This study highlights the potential impacts of climate change, through glacier retreat, on the biogeochemistry of POPs, remobilizing those compounds previously trapped within the cryosphere which in turn will transform the Antarctic cryosphere into a secondary source of the more volatile POPs in coastal areas, influenced by snow and ice melting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thais Luarte
- Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago 8370251, Chile; GEMA, Center for Genomics, Ecology & Environment, Universidad Mayor, Camino La Pirámide, 5750, Huechuraba, Santiago 8580745, Chile; Anillo en Ciencia y Tecnología Antártica POLARIX, Chile; Institute of Environment, Florida International University, University Park, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
| | - Andrea Hirmas-Olivares
- GEMA, Center for Genomics, Ecology & Environment, Universidad Mayor, Camino La Pirámide, 5750, Huechuraba, Santiago 8580745, Chile; Anillo en Ciencia y Tecnología Antártica POLARIX, Chile; Department of Ecology and Biodiversity, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago 8370251, Chile
| | - Juan Höfer
- Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro FONDAP de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Valdivia, Chile
| | - Ricardo Giesecke
- Centro FONDAP de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Valdivia, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Independencia 631, Valdivia, Chile
| | - Mireia Mestre
- Centro FONDAP de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Valdivia, Chile; Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Chile
| | - Sergio Guajardo-Leiva
- Anillo en Ciencia y Tecnología Antártica POLARIX, Chile; Departamento de Microbiología, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile; Centro de Ecología Integrativa, Universidad de Talca, Campus Lircay, Talca, Chile
| | - Eduardo Castro-Nallar
- Anillo en Ciencia y Tecnología Antártica POLARIX, Chile; Departamento de Microbiología, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile; Centro de Ecología Integrativa, Universidad de Talca, Campus Lircay, Talca, Chile
| | - Andrés Pérez-Parada
- Departamento de Desarrollo Tecnológico, Centro Universitario Regional del Este (CURE), Universidad de la República, Ruta 9 y Ruta 15, Rocha 27000, Uruguay
| | - Gustavo Chiang
- Department of Ecology and Biodiversity, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago 8370251, Chile; Centro de Investigación para Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago, Chile
| | - Rainer Lohmann
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | - Jordi Dachs
- Department of Environmental Chemistry, IDAEA-CSIC, c/Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona, Catalunya 08034, Spain
| | - Susan Bengtson Nash
- Southern Ocean Persistent Organic Pollutants Program, Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia
| | - José Pulgar
- Department of Ecology and Biodiversity, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago 8370251, Chile
| | - Karla Pozo
- Facultad de Ingeniería y Tecnología, Universidad San Sebastián, Lientur 1457, Concepción, Chile; Masaryk University, Faculty of Science, RECETOX, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Petra P Přibylová
- Masaryk University, Faculty of Science, RECETOX, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Jakub Martiník
- Masaryk University, Faculty of Science, RECETOX, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Cristóbal Galbán-Malagón
- GEMA, Center for Genomics, Ecology & Environment, Universidad Mayor, Camino La Pirámide, 5750, Huechuraba, Santiago 8580745, Chile; Anillo en Ciencia y Tecnología Antártica POLARIX, Chile; Institute of Environment, Florida International University, University Park, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
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Simon MP, Schatz M, Böhm L, Papp I, Grossart HP, Andersen TJ, Bálint M, Düring RA. Dissent in the sediment? Lake sediments as archives of short- and long-range impact of anthropogenic activities in northeastern Germany. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:85867-85888. [PMID: 37395875 PMCID: PMC10404210 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28210-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
The suitability of lake sediment cores to reconstruct past inputs, regional pollution, and usage patterns of pesticides has been shown previously. Until now, no such data exist for lakes in eastern Germany. Therefore, 10 sediment cores (length 1 m) of 10 lakes in eastern Germany, the territory of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), were collected and cut into 5-10-mm layers. In each layer, concentrations of trace elements (TEs) As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, S, and Zn, as well as of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), i.e., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), were analyzed. A miniaturized solid-liquid extraction technique in conjunction with headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used for the latter. The progression of TE concentrations over time is uniform. It follows a trans-regional pattern and is indicative of activity and policy making in West Germany before 1990 instead of those in the GDR. Of OCPs, only transformation products of DDT were found. Congener ratios indicate a mainly aerial input. In the lakes' profiles, several regional features and responses to national policies and measures are visible. Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD) concentrations reflect the history of DDT use in the GDR. Lake sediments proved to be suitable to archive short- and long-range impacts of anthropogenic activity. Our data can be used to complement and validate other forms of environmental pollution long-term monitoring and to check for the efficiency of pollution countermeasures in the past.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel Pierre Simon
- Institute of Soil Science and Soil Conservation, Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany.
| | - Marlene Schatz
- Institute of Soil Science and Soil Conservation, Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany
| | - Leonard Böhm
- Institute of Soil Science and Soil Conservation, Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany
| | - István Papp
- Doctoral School of Chemistry, University of Debrecen, Egyetem Tér 1, Debrecen, 4032, Hungary
| | - Hans-Peter Grossart
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Dept. Plankton and Microbial Ecology, Zur alten Fischerhütte 2, OT Neuglobsow, 16775, Stechlin, Germany
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Thorbjørn Joest Andersen
- Section for Geography, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350, Copenhagen K, Denmark
| | - Miklós Bálint
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Institute of Insect Biotechnology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany
| | - Rolf-Alexander Düring
- Institute of Soil Science and Soil Conservation, Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany
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Hites RA, Venier M. Good News: Some Insecticides Have Been Virtually Eliminated in Air near the Great Lakes. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2023; 57:2199-2204. [PMID: 36730917 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c08318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Persistent insecticides have been classic environmental problems for 60-70 years─perhaps starting with Rachel Carson's indictment of DDT. Both national and international regulations have been put in place over the last 20-30 years to eventually eliminate these compounds from the environment. One focus is the atmosphere, which acts as a major long-range transport route of these pollutants from their numerous sources to many ecosystems. This paper will ask, "Have we have made any progress in eliminating insecticides from the atmosphere?" We will focus only on the atmosphere around the North American Great Lakes and only on concentration measurements made once every 12 days since about 1990 for six classic insecticides. The answer is that some of these compounds (lindane, α-HCH, and endosulfans) are well on their way to being virtually eliminated, while the concentrations of others (DDT, chlordane, and hexachlorobenzene) have not changed much. We speculate that this difference in elimination is a result of soil compaction in cities (DDT, etc.) versus soil mixing in rural areas (lindane, etc.).
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronald A Hites
- O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana47405, United States
| | - Marta Venier
- O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana47405, United States
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Biodegradation of technical hexachlorocyclohexane by Cupriavidus malaysiensis. World J Microbiol Biotechnol 2022; 38:108. [DOI: 10.1007/s11274-022-03284-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Li M, Pei J, Xu M, Shu T, Qin C, Hu M, Zhang Y, Jiang M, Zhu C. Changing incidence and projections of thyroid cancer in mainland China, 1983-2032: evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Cancer Causes Control 2021; 32:1095-1105. [PMID: 34152517 DOI: 10.1007/s10552-021-01458-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been seen in China during the past several decades. The aim of this study was to analyze potential age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in mainland China and to predict new cases up to 2032. METHODS We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer, conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 35,037 thyroid cancer incidence cases reported to Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1983 to 2012 in mainland China, and predicted incidence up to 2032 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort method. RESULTS The age-adjusted overall incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased from 1.93/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 12.18/100,000 in 2008-2012 among females and from 0.77/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 3.89/100,000 in 2008-2012 among males, with a female-to-male ratio of approximately 3.0 during the three decades. Strong birth cohort and period effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed for both sexes, and such an increasing trend is predicted to continue for at least the next 20 years. More than 3.7 million new cases are projected in the 2028-2032 period. CONCLUSION The increasing trend of thyroid cancer in mainland China will cause a great burden in the future. In addition to the potential impact of improvement in medical diagnostics, potential exposure to risk factors have played a role in the observed rising trend. Further population-based epidemiologic studies are required to identify risk factors to aid in thyroid cancer prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mandi Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jiao Pei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.,Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
| | - Minghan Xu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Ting Shu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Chengjie Qin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Meijing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yawei Zhang
- National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Min Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
| | - Cairong Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
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