Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Gasoline and Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Comparison from the Consumption-Based Electricity Perspective

Are electric vehicles really the optimal option for the transportation sector in China to approach pollution reduction and carbon neutrality goals?

Profound worldwide fleet electrification is thought to be the primary route for achieving the target of carbon neutrality. However, when and how electrification can help mitigate environmental impacts and carbon emissions in the transport sector remains unclear. Herein, the overall life-cycle environmental impacts and carbon saving range of two typical A-class vehicles in China, including electric vehicle (EV) and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), were quantified by the life cycle assessment model for endpoint damage with localization parameters. The results showed that the EV outperformed the ICEV for the total environment impact after a travel distance of 39,153 km and for carbon emissions after 32,292 km. The ICEV was more carbon-friendly only when the driving distance was less than 3229 km/a. Considering a full lifespan travel distance of 150,000 km, the whole life-cycle average environmental impacts of EV and ICEV were calculated as 8.6 and 17.5 mPt/km, respectively, but the EV had 2.3 times higher impacts than the ICEV in the production phase. In addition, the EV unit carbon emission was 140 g/km, 46.8% lower than that of the ICEV. Finally, three potential reduction scenarios were considered: cleaner power mix, energy efficiency improvement and composite scenario. These scenarios contributed 19.1%, 13.0% and 32.1% reductions, respectively. However, achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals in China remains a great challenge unless fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy. The research can provide scientific reference for the method and practice of emission reduction link identification, eco-driving choice and emission reduction path formulation.

Carbon mitigation and health effects of fleet electrification in China's Yangtze River Delta

Fleet electrification is one of the most promising strategies to mitigate carbon emissions and improve air quality. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the currently unclear CO2 mitigation and human health benefits from electric vehicle (EV) adoption and energy decarbonization in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, air quality modeling and health risk assessment. Based on future socioeconomic trajectories, we project that the total vehicle stock in the YRD region will peak at 107-117 million around 2045-2050. The transition to EVs combined with largely renewable energy in the YRD region can potentially reduce CO2 emissions by 870 Tg in 2060 and brings along substantial health co-benefits with ∼360 avoided premature deaths per million from reduced PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. This study further explores the NO2-attributable burden from road transportation and reveals that fleet electrification could yield greater NO2-attributable health benefits than those from reduced PM2.5 and O3, especially in traffic-dense urban areas. Those findings indicate that China's near-term energy development plans (35% renewable energy) have created the conditions for large-scale EV adoption. Our results imply that the benefits of EVs exhibit substantial spatial heterogeneity, underscoring the importance of region-specific EV incentive policies, and hint that policymakers should prioritize densely populated megacities to maximize the potential for public health gains.

A bibliometric review on electric vehicle (EV) energy efficiency and emission effect research

Electric vehicles have received extensive attention due to their unique energy efficiency and good emission reduction effects. While a large-scale of electric vehicles are gradually replacing traditional fuel vehicles, it is necessary to ensure the energy efficiency of electric vehicles and the effectiveness of their emission reduction effects. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of scientific publications on energy efficiency and emission reduction effects of electric vehicles from 2003 to 2022, using a variety of bibliometric tools such as R Studio, biblioshiny and VOSviewer. The results showed the gradual elimination of traditional energy vehicles, where electric vehicles play an important role in connecting energy efficiency and emission control. The results also showed the top publication outlets, citations trackers, authors with thematic evaluation of energy efficiency and emission reduction effects of electric vehicles. The contribution of the study is manifold. The academic contribution of the present study is the bibliometric analysis which will help academicians to get a quick overview of the most popular journals, top collaborators, documents, authors, and scientific knowledge structure. Secondly, policy makers, environmentalists, researchers, and academician will definitely get a pathway how they should go for future research. Finally, this study suggests more researches trend to focus on the sales of electric vehicles, automobile exhaust emissions, sensitivity analysis of electric vehicles, energy storage analysis to improve the energy efficiency of electric vehicles, and V2G related to the energy efficiency of electric vehicle clusters.

Multisectoral drivers of decarbonizing battery electric vehicles in China

China has made great progress in the electrification of passenger cars, and the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have exceeded 10%. We applied a life-cycle assessment (LCA) method to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the past (2015), present (2020), and future (2030) BEVs, incorporating China's carbon peaking and neutrality policies, which would substantially reduce emissions from the electricity, operation efficiency, metallurgy, and battery manufacturing industries. BEVs can reduce cradle-to-grave (C2G) CO₂ emissions by ∼40% compared with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) on the national-average level in 2020, far more significant than the benefit in 2015. Improved BEV operating efficiency was the largest factor driving emission reductions from 2015 to 2020. Looking forward to 2030, China's BEVs equipped with nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can achieve a further 43% of CO₂ emissions reductions, among which 51 g km^-1 of reduction is from the well-to-wheels (WTW) stage majorly owing to the further cleaner electricity mix, while other vehicle-cycle benefits are mainly from the advancement of battery (12 g km^-1) and related metal materials (5 g km^-1). We highlight the importance of better material efficiency and synchronized decarbonization through the automotive industrial chain in promoting climate mitigation from transport activities.

Impact assessment of crude oil mix, electricity generation mix, and vehicle technology on road freight emission reduction in China

To achieve net zero emissions, the global transportation sector needs to reduce emissions by 90% from 2020 to 2050, and road freight has a significant potential to reduce emissions. In this context, emission reduction paths should be explored for road freight over the fuel life cycle. Based on panel data from 2015 to 2020 in China, China's version of the GREET model was established to evaluate the impact of crude oil mix, electricity mix, and vehicle technology on China's reduction in road freight emissions. The results show that the import share of China's crude oil has increased from 2015 to 2020, resulting in an increase in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of ICETs in the well-to-tank (WTT) stage by 7.3% in 2020 compared with 2015. Second, the share of China's coal-fired electricity in the electricity mix decreased from 2015 to 2020, reducing the GHG emission intensity of battery electric trucks (BETs), by approximately 6.5% in 2020 compared to 2015. Third, different vehicle classes and types of BETs and fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) have different emission reduction effects, and their potentials for energy-saving and emission reduction at various stages of the fuel life cycle are different. In addition, in a comparative study of vehicle technology, the results show that (1) for medium-duty trucks (MDTs) and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), FCETs have lower GHG emission intensity than BETs, and replacing diesel-ICETs can significantly reduce GHG emissions from road freight; (2) for light-duty trucks (LDTs), BETs and FCETs have the highest GHG emission reduction potential; thus, improving technologies such as electricity generation, hydrogen fuel production, hydrogen fuel storage, and transportation will help to improve the emission reduction capabilities of BETs and FCETs. Therefore, policymakers should develop emission standards for road freight based on vehicle class, type, and technology.

Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

Incorporating health cobenefits from coabated air pollution into carbon mitigation policy making is particularly important for developing countries to boost policy efficiency. For sectors that highly depend on electrification for decarbonization, it remains unclear how the increased electricity demand and consequent health impacts from sectoral mitigation policy in one province would change the scale and the regional and sectoral distributions of the overall health impacts in the whole country. This study chooses the banning of new sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in the private vehicle sector in China as a case. The results show that, without carbon neutrality and air pollution control goals in electricity generation, 53% of CO2 reduction and 65% of health benefits from the private vehicle sector would be offset by increased electricity demand. The regional distributions of CO2 reduction and health benefits due to a province-driven ban policy are greatly uneven, as the top five provinces take up over one-third of the total impact in China. Health benefits per ton of carbon reduction (H/C) may vary by up to 8 times across provinces. Finally, the provinces in southeast China and the Sichuan Basin, with their stably high H/C values, are suggested to enact the province-driven ban policy first.

Which type of electric vehicle is worth promoting mostly in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality? A case study for a metropolis in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been promoted acceleratively to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however, the GHG emission reduction potential of different powertrain EVs has not been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we firstly quantified and compared the GHG emissions of different powertrain vehicles in a life cycle perspective with particular focus on energy and climate consequences, for current and future integrated scenarios, to facilitate carbon reduction assessment for Shanghai. Four major types of EVs were considered. The results show that life cycle total energy consumption and GHG emissions of all EVs are lower than that of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (GICEVs), among which battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) is the lowest. Compared with GICEVs, the total energy use and GHG emissions of BEVs decrease by 34.2% and 41.7% respectively. As the electrification of vehicle powertrain system innovates, the life cycle emissions of GHG are gradually concentrated to the upstream stage. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles are most sensitive to the proportion of thermal power than other three parameters (utilization rate of recycled steel, vehicle lifetime and curb weight). The scenario analysis indicates that BEVs present the more favorable carbon emission decline performance over other EVs from a long-term perspective. It is estimated that up to 12.5 million tons of GHG emissions could be reduced under the optimistic scenario in 2050 in Shanghai. In the process of energy conversion from oil to electricity in transport in Shanghai, BEVs should be constantly promoted.

Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation

Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have emerged as a favoured technology solution to mitigate transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many non-Annex 1 countries, including India. GHG mitigation potentials of electric 4-wheelers in India depend critically on when and where they are charged: 40% reduction in the north-eastern states and more than 15% increase in the eastern/western regions today, with higher overall GHGs emitted when charged overnight and in the summer. Self-charging gasoline-electric hybrids can lead to 33% GHG reductions, though they haven’t been fully considered a mitigation option in India. Electric 2-wheelers can already enable a 20% reduction in GHG emissions given their small battery size and superior efficiency. India’s electrification plan demands up to 125GWh of annual battery capacities by 2030, nearly 10% of projected worldwide productions. India requires a phased electrification with a near-term focus on 2-wheelers and a clear trajectory to phase-out coal-power for an organised mobility transition.

India’s plans to electrify transport is complicated by its reliance on coal-power. Here the authors call for diverse policy and technology solutions, including a focus on cleaner grids, electric 2-wheelers, and hybrid 4-wheelers in the near-term.

A Review on Environmental Efficiency Evaluation of New Energy Vehicles Using Life Cycle Analysis

New energy vehicles (NEVs), especially electric vehicles (EVs), address the important task of reducing the greenhouse effect. It is particularly important to measure the environmental efficiency of new energy vehicles, and the life cycle analysis (LCA) model provides a comprehensive evaluation method of environmental efficiency. To provide researchers with knowledge regarding the research trends of LCA in NEVs, a total of 282 related studies were counted from the Web of Science database and analyzed regarding their research contents, research preferences, and research trends. The conclusion drawn from this research is that the stages of energy resource extraction and collection, carrier production and energy transportation, maintenance, and replacement are not considered to be research links. The stages of material, equipment, and car transportation and operation equipment settling, and forms of use need to be considered in future research. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs), vehicle type classification, the water footprint, battery recovery and reuse, and battery aging are the focus of further research, and comprehensive evaluation combined with more evaluation methods is the direction needed for the optimization of LCA. According to the results of this study regarding EV and hybrid power vehicles (including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and extended range electric vehicles (EREV)), well-to-wheel (WTW) average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been less than those in the same period of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (GICEV). However, EV and hybrid electric vehicle production CO2 emissions have been greater than those during the same period of GICEV and the total CO2 emissions of EV have been less than during the same period of GICEV.

Regional Emissions Analysis of Light-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles

Light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAPs) emissions, when compared to gasoline vehicles. However, research has found that while today’s BEVs typically reduce GHGs, they can increase certain CAPs, though with significant regional variability based on the electric grid mix. In addition, the environmental performance of electric and gasoline vehicles is not static, as key factors driving emissions have undergone significant changes recently and are expected to continue to evolve. In this study, we perform a cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis using state-level generation mix and vehicle operation emission data. We generated state-level emission factors using a projection from 2020 to 2050 for three light-duty vehicle types. We found that BEVs currently provide GHG benefits in nearly every state, with the median state’s benefit being between approximately 50% to 60% lower than gasoline counterparts. However, gasoline vehicles currently have lower total NOx, urban NOx, total PM2.5, and urban PM2.5 in 33%; 15%; 70%; and 10% of states, respectively. BEV emissions will decrease in 2050 due to a cleaner grid, but the relative benefits when compared to gasoline vehicles do not change significantly, as gasoline vehicles are also improving over this time.