Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

Investigating the GHG emissions, air pollution and public health impacts from China's aluminium industry: Historical variations and future mitigation potential

China's aluminium industry, contributing 50% of the global aluminium sector's GHG emissions, is undergoing technology upgrading and energy transition. Facing the dual challenges of carbon neutrality and air pollution control, it is necessary to investigate the GHG emissions and air quality related health risks from aluminium production. Here, we traced the spatiotemporal GHG and air pollutant emissions from China's aluminium industry since 2010. We found that the annual GHG emissions increased from 313 Mt CO2 to 621 Mt CO2 over a decade, while air pollutant emissions decreased by 42.9%-68.6%. Through regional chemical transport model and the exposure-response model, we quantified the regional health risks, finding that the mortalities fell from 52,900 to 36,500 with complex spatial heterogeneity. Through emission driving force analysis and aluminium related policy review, we demonstrated that China's air pollution control policy, aluminium capacity migration plan and energy transition plan have a mitigation effect on the emissions and health risks. Moreover, we proposed six mitigation measures and investigated the future mitigation potential through scenario analysis. We found that the critical criteria for carbon neutrality should be natural gas and hydrogen dominated alumina refining, 100% electrolysis decarbonisation, 65% recycled aluminium ratio, 80% penetration rate of inert anodes and 50 Mt CO2 capture. As a co-benefit, the emissions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10 can be reduced by up to 97.1%, 97.0%, 89.6%, and 90.5%. These findings provide new insights into carbon neutrality and air pollution mitigation for the aluminium industry.

Revealing sources for synergistic control of PM2.5, O3, and CO2 in China: Based on social costs of air pollution and climate impact

China is concurrently facing the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change. Here, we established a coupled modeling framework that integrated a chemical transport model with a health impact assessment model and the human capital method, to quantify the contributions of 150 emission sources (five sectors in 30 provinces) to the CO2 emissions, and the mortality burdens attributed to O3 and PM2.5. We found that, in 2019, the estimated premature deaths in China attributed to PM2.5 and O3 pollution were 1,499,073 and 143,420, respectively. The social cost of air pollution was approximately 232 billion USD (PM2.5: 212 billion USD, O3: 20 billion USD), comparable to the social cost of CO2 emissions at 246 billion USD. The social costs of air pollution and carbon emissions attributable to the 150 emission sources exhibited significant heterogeneity. We identified the control priorities and primary control targets for each emission source. Consequently, based on the social costs of air pollution and climate impact, we proposed a synergistic emission control policy that accounted for spatial distribution and sectoral categories. This policy aimed to harmonize the control strategies for PM2.5 pollution, O3 pollution, and CO2 emissions, thereby enhancing the comprehensive benefits of mitigation measures. Our study sheds light on optimizing emission control policies, enhancing the realism of relevant policy-making for synergistic control of air pollution and carbon emissions.

The 2023 report of the synergetic roadmap on carbon neutrality and clean air for China: Carbon reduction, pollution mitigation, greening, and growth

The response to climate change and air pollution control demonstrates strong synergy across scientific mechanisms, targets, strategies, and governance systems. This report, based on a monitoring indicator system for coordinated governance of air pollution and climate change, employs an interdisciplinary approach combining natural and social sciences. It establishes 20 indicators across five key areas: air pollution and climate change, governance systems and practices, structural transformation and technologies, atmospheric components and emission reduction pathways, and health impacts and co-benefits. This report tries to provide actionable insights into the interconnectedness of air pollution and climate governance. It highlights key policy gaps, presents updated indicators, and offers a refined monitoring framework to track progress toward China's dual goals of reducing emissions and improving air quality. Compared to previous editions, this year's report has updated four key indicators: meteorological impacts on air quality, climate change and its effects, governance policies, and low-carbon building energy systems. The aim is to further refine the monitoring framework, track progress, and establish a comprehensive theory for collaborative governance while identifying challenges and proposing solutions for China's pathway to carbon neutrality and clean air. The report comprises six chapters. The executive summary chapter is followed by analyzing air pollution and climate change interactions. Governance systems and practices are discussed in the third chapter, focusing on policy implementation and local experiences. The fourth chapter addresses structural transformations and emission reduction technologies, including energy and industrial shifts, transportation, low-carbon buildings, carbon capture and storage, and power systems. The fifth chapter outlines atmospheric component dynamics and emission pathways, presenting insights into emission drivers and future strategies. The sixth chapter assesses health impacts and the benefits of coordinated actions. Since 2019, China Clean Air Policy Partnership has produced annual reports on China's progress in climate and air pollution governance, receiving positive feedback. In 2023, the report was co-developed with Tsinghua University's Carbon Neutrality Research Institute, involving over 100 experts and multiple academic forums. The collaboration aims to continuously improve the indicator system and establish the report as a key resource supporting China's efforts in pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, greening, and sustainable growth.

Emission reduction strategies and health: a systematic review on the tools and methods to assess co-benefits

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to review the current literature on the health co-benefits of emission reduction strategies and the methods and tools available to assess them.

DESIGN

Systematic review conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect and GreenFILE were searched from January of 2017 to March of 2023.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included original, peer-reviewed journal articles that described emission (ambient air pollutant and greenhouse gases) reduction strategies and assessed their health co-benefits.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers employed standardised methods to search, screen and code the included studies, documenting their findings in an Excel spreadsheet.

RESULTS

From 6687 articles, 82 were included. Most studies show that emissions reduction strategies improve air quality, reducing mortality and morbidity. Health risk assessment and health impact assessment are common, though procedures may cause confusion. About 33% used established models like the integrated exposure-response and global exposure mortality model. Out of all studies, 16% of them used Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition. Only 17.8% carried out cost-benefit analyses, but these show economic worth in investing in emission reduction strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Emission reduction strategies significantly enhance human health, with potential co-benefits offsetting intervention costs, which can be an incentive for action in low and middle-income countries. This review emphasises investing in cost-benefit analyses and research, particularly in regions with limited studies on emission reduction and health co-benefits. It provides decision-makers insights into selecting assessment methods and underscores the ongoing need for model and tool evaluation.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022332480.

Optimizing air quality and health Co-benefits of mitigation technologies in China: An integrated assessment

Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits, while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition, technological advancements, and economic development. In China, mitigation technologies such as end-of-pipe treatment, renewable energy adoption, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and sector electrification demonstrate significant promise in meeting carbon reduction targets. However, the optimization of these technologies for maximum co-benefits remains unclear. Here, we employ an integrated assessment model (AIM/enduse, CAM-chem, IMED|HEL) to analyze air quality shifts and their corresponding health and economic impacts at the provincial level in China within the two-degree target. Our findings reveal that a combination of end-of-pipe technology, renewable energy utilization, and electrification yields the most promising results in air quality improvement, with a reduction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by -34.6 μg m-3 and ozone by -18.3 ppb in 2050 compared to the reference scenario. In contrast, CCS technology demonstrates comparatively modest improvements in air quality (-9.4 μg m-3 for PM2.5 and -2.4 ppb for ozone) and cumulative premature deaths reduction (-3.4 million from 2010 to 2050) compared to the end-of-pipe scenario. Notably, densely populated regions such as Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Sichuan experience the most health and economic benefits. This study aims to project effective future mitigation technologies and climate policies on air quality improvement and carbon mitigation. Furthermore, it seeks to delineate detailed provincial-level air pollution control strategies, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and health-conscious environmental management.

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

Identifying Key Sources for Air Pollution and CO2 Emission Co-control in China

China is confronting the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, mandating the co-control of air pollutants and CO2 emissions from their shared sources. Here we identify key sources for co-control that prioritize the mitigation of PM2.5-related health burdens, given the homogeneous impacts of CO2 emissions from various sources. By applying an integrated analysis framework that consists of a detailed emission inventory, a chemical transport model, a multisource fused dataset, and epidemiological concentration-response functions, we systematically evaluate the contribution of emissions from 390 sources (30 provinces and 13 socioeconomic sectors) to PM2.5-related health impacts and CO2 emissions, as well as the marginal health benefits of CO2 abatement across China. The estimated source-specific contributions exhibit substantial disparities, with the marginal benefits varying by 3 orders of magnitude. The rural residential, transportation, metal, and power and heating sectors emerge as pivotal sources for co-control, with regard to their relatively large marginal benefits or the sectoral total benefits. In addition, populous and heavily industrialized provinces such as Shandong and Henan are identified as the key regions for co-control. Our study highlights the significance of incorporating health benefits into formulating air pollution and carbon co-control strategies for improving the overall social welfare.

Health benefits of vehicle electrification through air pollution in Shanghai, China

Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities are less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics - especially for megacities like Shanghai - which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx and SO2 due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.

Co-drivers of Air Pollutant and CO2 Emissions from On-Road Transportation in China 2010-2020

Co-controlling the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 from automobiles is crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate change in China. Here, we analyze the synergetic characteristics of air pollutant and CO2 emissions from China's on-road transportation and identify the co-drivers influencing these trends. Using detailed emission inventories and employing index decomposition analysis, we found that despite notable progress in pollution control, minimizing on-road CO2 emissions remains a formidable task. Over 2010-2020, the estimated sectoral emissions of VOCs, NOx, PM2.5, and CO declined by 49.9%, 25.9%, 75.2%, and 63.5%, respectively, while CO2 emissions increased by 46.1%. Light-duty passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks have been identified as the primary contributors to carbon-pollution co-emissions, highlighting the need for tailored policies. The driver analysis indicates that socioeconomic changes are primary drivers of emission growth, while policy controls, particularly advances in emission efficiency, can facilitate co-reductions. Regional disparities emphasize the need for policy refinement, including reducing dependency on fuel vehicles in the passenger subsector and prioritizing co-reduction strategies in high-emission provinces in the freight subsector. Overall, our study confirms the effectiveness of China's on-road control policies and provides valuable insights for future policy makers in China and other similarly positioned developing countries.

Electric vehicle adoption delivers public health and environmental benefits

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Carbon mitigation and health effects of fleet electrification in China's Yangtze River Delta

Fleet electrification is one of the most promising strategies to mitigate carbon emissions and improve air quality. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the currently unclear CO2 mitigation and human health benefits from electric vehicle (EV) adoption and energy decarbonization in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, air quality modeling and health risk assessment. Based on future socioeconomic trajectories, we project that the total vehicle stock in the YRD region will peak at 107-117 million around 2045-2050. The transition to EVs combined with largely renewable energy in the YRD region can potentially reduce CO2 emissions by 870 Tg in 2060 and brings along substantial health co-benefits with ∼360 avoided premature deaths per million from reduced PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. This study further explores the NO2-attributable burden from road transportation and reveals that fleet electrification could yield greater NO2-attributable health benefits than those from reduced PM2.5 and O3, especially in traffic-dense urban areas. Those findings indicate that China's near-term energy development plans (35% renewable energy) have created the conditions for large-scale EV adoption. Our results imply that the benefits of EVs exhibit substantial spatial heterogeneity, underscoring the importance of region-specific EV incentive policies, and hint that policymakers should prioritize densely populated megacities to maximize the potential for public health gains.

Health and economic benefits of heavy-duty diesel truck emission control policies in Beijing

PM2.5 emissions from heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs) have a significant impact on air quality, human health, and climate change, and seriously threaten the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Globally, a series of emission control measures have been implemented to reduce pollution emissions from HDDTs. Current studies assessing the impact of these measures on air quality and human health have mainly used coarse-grained emission data as input to dispersion model, resulting in the inability to capture the spatiotemporal variability of pollutant concentrations and tending to increase the uncertainty of health impact assessment results. In this study, we quantified the impact of pollution control policies for HDDTs in Beijing on PM2.5 concentrations, human health, and economic losses by integrating policy scenario analysis, pollution dispersion simulation, public health impact and economic benefit assessment models, supported by high spatiotemporal resolution emission data from HDDTs. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations from HDDTs exhibit significant spatial aggregation characteristics, with the intensity of aggregation at night being about twice as high as that during the day. The emission hotspots are mainly concentrated in the sixth, fifth and fourth rings and major highways. Compared to the "business as usual" scenario in 2018, the current policy of updating the fuel standard to China VI and the emission standard to China 6 can reduce PM2.5 concentrations by 96.72%, thereby avoiding 612 premature deaths, which is equivalent to obtaining economic benefits of 1.65 billion CNY. This study further emphasizes the importance of high spatiotemporal resolution emission data during traffic dispersion modeling. The results can help improve the understanding of the effectiveness of emission reduction measures for HDDTs from a health benefit perspective.