Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Cleaning up while Changing Gears: The Role of Battery Design, Fossil Fuel Power Plants, and Vehicle Policy for Reducing Emissions in the Transition to Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce air emissions when charged with clean power, but prior work estimated that in 2010, PEVs produced 2 to 3 times the consequential air emission externalities of gasoline vehicles in PJM (the largest US regional transmission operator, serving 65 million people) due largely to increased generation from coal-fired power plants to charge the vehicles. We investigate how this situation has changed since 2010, where we are now, and what the largest levers are for reducing PEV consequential life cycle emission externalities in the near future. We estimate that PEV emission externalities have dropped by 17% to 18% in PJM as natural gas replaced coal, but they will remain comparable to gasoline vehicle externalities in base case trajectories through at least 2035. Increased wind and solar power capacity is critical to achieving deep decarbonization in the long run, but through 2035 we estimate that it will primarily shift which fossil generators operate on the margin at times when PEVs charge and can even increase consequential PEV charging emissions in the near term. We find that the largest levers for reducing PEV emissions over the next decade are (1) shifting away from nickel-based batteries to lithium iron phosphate, (2) reducing emissions from fossil generators, and (3) revising vehicle fleet emission standards. While our numerical estimates are regionally specific, key findings apply to most power systems today, in which renewable generators typically produce as much output as possible, regardless of the load, while dispatchable fossil fuel generators respond to the changes in load.

Large Decreases in Tailpipe Criteria Pollutant Emissions from the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Expected in 2020-2040

The U.S. EPA MOVES3 model was used to assess the impact of the large-scale introduction of electric vehicles on emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, hydrocarbons [HC], NOx, and particulate matter [PM]) and CO2 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. Large reductions in emissions of these criteria pollutants occurred in 2000-2020. These trends are expected to continue through 2040 driven by turnover of the conventional fleet with old vehicles being replaced by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and by new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with modern emission control systems. Without the introduction of BEVs, the absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet are expected to decrease by approximately 61, 88, 55, and 20% from 2020 to 2040. Introduction of BEVs with market share increasing linearly to 100% in 2040 provides additional benefits, which, combined with ICEV fleet turnover, would lead to decreases of absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 of approximately 77, 94, 71, and 37% from 2020 to 2040. Reductions in CO2 emissions follow a similar pattern. Large decreases in criteria pollutant and CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles lie ahead.

Ensuring greenhouse gas reductions from electric vehicles compared to hybrid gasoline vehicles requires a cleaner U.S. electricity grid

Emissions from electric vehicles depend on when they are charged and which power plants meet the electricity demand. We introduce a new metric, the critical emissions factors (CEFs), as the emissions intensity of electricity that needs to be achieved when charging to ensure electric vehicles achieve lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions parity with some of the most efficient gasoline hybrid vehicles across the United States. We use a consequential framework, consider 2018 as our reference year, and account for the effects of temperature and drive cycle on vehicle efficiency to account for regional climate and use conditions. We find that the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt battery electric vehicles reduce lifecycle emissions relative to Toyota Prius and Honda Accord gasoline hybrids in most of the United States. However, in rural counties of the Midwest and the South, power grid marginal emissions reductions of up to 208 gCO2/kWh are still needed for these electric vehicles to have lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline hybrids. Except for the Northeast and Florida, the longer-range Tesla Model S battery-electric luxury sedan has higher emissions than the hybrids across the U.S., and the emissions intensity of the grid would need to decrease by up to 342 gCO2/kWh in some locations for it to achieve carbon parity with hybrid gasoline vehicles. Finally, we conclude that coal retirements and stricter standards on fossil fuel generators are more effective in the medium term at reducing consequential electric vehicle emissions than expansion of renewable capacity.

Drone flight data reveal energy and greenhouse gas emissions savings for very small package delivery

Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) for last-mile deliveries will affect the energy productivity of delivery and require new methods to understand energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We combine empirical testing of 188 quadcopter flights across a range of speeds with a first-principles analysis to develop a usable energy model and a machine-learning algorithm to assess energy across takeoff, cruise, and landing. Our model shows that an electric quadcopter drone with a very small package (0.5 kg) would consume approximately 0.08 MJ/km and result in 70 g of CO₂e per package in the United States. We compare drone delivery with other vehicles and show that energy per package delivered by drones (0.33 MJ/package) can be up to 94% lower than conventional transportation modes, with only electric cargo bicycles providing lower GHGs/package. Our open model and coefficients can assist stakeholders in understanding and improving the sustainability of small package delivery.

•

Drones can have up to 94% lower energy consumption per package than other vehicles

•

Small quadcopter drones consume approximately 0.08 MJ/km and emit 70 gCO₂e/package

•

Total energy consumption can be reduced by 34% by reducing vertical takeoff

•

GHG emissions are up to 93% higher in regions with a more carbon-intensive grid mix

The growing demand for fast, contactless deliveries has been driving firms to experiment with automated package-delivery vehicles that can avoid urban traffic and rapidly reach customers. Widespread adoption of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to replace a portion of first/last-mile truck pickups and deliveries could reshape transportation energy by changing demand patterns and shifting fuel use from fossil fuels to electricity. There is a need to optimize drones and systems to maximize energy productivity. Here, we help stakeholders and researchers understand the energy use of package-delivery drones and provide an open model based on 188 delivery-drone flights with a range of payloads, speeds, and altitudes. We show the impact of the cruise speed and payload mass on the drone’s range, provide generalizable coefficients for others to estimate drone energy use, and show that the energy per package delivered by drones can be up to 94% lower than conventional transportation modes.

Electric Mobility in Portugal: Current Situation and Forecasts for Fuel Cell Vehicles

In recent years, the growing concern for air quality has led to the development of sustainable vehicles to replace conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Currently, the most widespread technology in Europe and Portugal is that of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) or plug-in HEV (PHEV) electric cars, but hydrogen-based transport has also shown significant growth in the commercialization of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) and in the development of new infrastructural schemes. In the current panorama of EV, particular attention should be paid to hydrogen technology, i.e., FCEVs, which is potentially a valid alternative to BEVs and can also be hybrid (FCHEV) and plug-in hybrid (FCPHEV). Several sources cited show a positive trend of hydrogen in the transport sector, identifying a growing trend in the expansion of hydrogen infrastructure, although at this time, it is still at an early stage of development. At the moment, the cost of building the infrastructure is still high, but on the basis of medium/long-term scenarios it is clear that investments in hydrogen refueling stations will be profitable if the number of Fuel Cell vehicles increases. Conversely, the Fuel Cell vehicle market is hampered if there is no adequate infrastructure for hydrogen development. The opportunity to use Fuel Cells to store electrical energy is quite fascinating and bypasses some obstacles encountered with BEVs. The advantages are clear, since the charging times are reduced, compared to charging from an electric charging post, and the long-distance voyage is made easier, as the autonomy is much larger, i.e., the psycho-sociological anxiety is avoided. Therefore, the first part of the paper provides an overview of the current state of electric mobility in Portugal and the strategies adopted by the country. This is necessary to have a clear vision of how a new technology is accepted by the population and develops on the territory, that is the propensity of citizens to technological change. Subsequently, using current data on EV development and comparing information from recent years, this work aims to investigate the future prospects of FCEVs in Portugal by adopting a dynamic model called SERA (Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis), with which it is possible to identify the Portuguese districts and cities where an FC charging infrastructure is expected to be most beneficial. From the results obtained, the districts of Lisbon, Porto and Aveiro seem to be the most interested in adopting FC technology. This analysis aims to ensure a measured view of the credible development of this market segment.

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Light-Duty Transport in Line with the 2 °C Target

Making, driving, and disposing of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) account for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions related to energy and processing. This study calculates future emissions and global temperature rises attributable to U.S. LDVs. We examine how 2021-2050 U.S. LDV cumulative emissions can be limited to 23.1 Gt CO_2equiv, helping to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We vary four vehicle life cycle parameters (transport demand, sales share of alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle material recycling rates, and vehicle lifespans) in a dynamic fleet analysis to determine annual LDV sales, scrappage, and fleet compositions. We combine these data with vehicle technology and electricity emission scenarios to calculate annual production, use, and disposal emissions attributable to U.S. LDVs. Only 3% of the 1512 modeled pathways stay within the emission limit. Cumulative emissions are most sensitive to transport demand, and the speed of fleet electrification and electricity decarbonization. Increasing production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 100% of sales by 2040 (at the latest) is necessary, and early retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles is beneficial. Rapid electricity decarbonization minimizes emissions from BEV use and increasingly energy-intensive vehicle production. Deploying high fuel economy vehicles can increase emissions from the production of BEV batteries and lightweight materials. Increased recycling has a small effect on these emissions because over the time period there are few postconsumer batteries and lightweight materials available for recycling. Without aggressive actions, U.S. LDVs will likely exceed the cumulative emissions budget by 2039 and contribute a further 0.02 °C to global warming by 2050, 2.7% of the remaining global 2 °C budget.

Does Size Matter? The Influence of Size, Load Factor, Range Autonomy, and Application Type on the Life Cycle Assessment of Current and Future Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles

The transparent, flexible, and open-source Python library carculator_truck is introduced to perform the life cycle assessment of a series of medium- and heavy-duty trucks across different powertrain types, size classes, fuel pathways, and years in a European context. Unsurprisingly, greenhouse gas emissions per ton-km reduce as size and load factor increase. By 2040, battery and fuel cell electric trucks appear to be promising options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per ton-km on long distance segments, even where the required range autonomy is high. This requires that various conditions are met, such as improvements at the energy storage level and a drastic reduction of the greenhouse gas intensity of the electricity used for battery charging and hydrogen production. Meanwhile, these options may be considered for urban and regional applications, where they have a competitive advantage thanks to their superior engine efficiency. Finally, these alternative options will have to compete against more mature combustion-based technologies which, despite lower drivetrain efficiencies, are expected to reduce their exhaust emissions via engine improvements, hybridization of their powertrain, as well as the use of biomass-based and synthetic fuels.

Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Zero-Emission Plug-In Battery Electric Vehicle Technology for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Conventional diesel medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) create large amount of air emissions. With the advancement in technology and reduction in the cost of batteries, plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasingly attractive options for improving energy efficiency and reducing air emissions of MHDVs. In this paper, we compared the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutant emissions of MHD BEVs with their conventional diesel counterparts across weight classes and vocations. We expanded the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to conduct the WTW analysis of MHDVs. The fuel economy for a wide range of MHDV weight classes and vocations, over various driving cycles, was evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle dynamic simulation software (Autonomie). The environmental impacts of MHD BEVs are sensitive to the source of electricity used to recharge their batteries. The WTW results show that MHD BEVs significantly improve environmental sustainability of MHDVs by providing deep reductions in WTW GHGs, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide emissions, compared to conventional diesel counterparts. Increasing shares of renewable and natural gas technologies in future national and regional electricity generation are expected to reduce WTW particulate matters and sulfur oxide emissions for further improvement of the environmental performance of MHD BEVs.

Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Expert Elicitation and a Levelized Cost of Driving Model

A cost-effective and compact hydrogen storage system could advance fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Today's commercial FCEVs incorporate storage that is projected to be heavier, larger, and costlier than targets set by the U.S. Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle efficiency and Energy sustainability Partnership (U.S. DRIVE). To inform research and development (R&D), we elicited 31 experts' assessments of expected future costs and capacities of storage systems. Experts suggested that systems would approach U.S. DRIVE's ultimate capacity targets but fall short of cost targets at a high production volume. The 2035 and 2050 median costs anticipated by experts were $13.5 and $10.53/kWh_H2, gravimetric capacities of 5.2 and 5.6 wt %, and volumetric capacities of 0.93 and 1.33 kWh_H2/L, respectively. To meet U.S. DRIVE's targets, experts recommended allocating the majority of government hydrogen storage R&D funding to materials development. Furthermore, we incorporated experts' cost assessments into a levelized cost of driving model. Given technical and fuel price uncertainty, FCEV costs ranged from $0.38 to $0.45/mile ($0.24-$0.28/km) in 2020, $0.30 to $0.33/mile ($0.19-$0.21/km) in 2035-2050, and $0.27 to $0.31/mile ($0.17-$0.19/km) in 2050. Depending on fuel, electricity, and battery prices, our findings suggest that FCEVs could compete with conventional and alternative fuel vehicles by 2035.

Hourly Power Grid Variations, Electric Vehicle Charging Patterns, and Operating Emissions

Light-duty vehicles emit ∼20% of net US greenhouse gases. Deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce these emissions. The magnitude of the reduction depends significantly on EV charging patterns and hourly power grid variations. Previous US EV studies either do not use hourly grid data, or use data from 2012 or earlier. Since 2012, US grids have undergone major emission-relevant changes, including growth of solar from ∼1 to ∼20% of generation in California, and >30% reduction of coal power countrywide. This study uses hourly grid data from 2018 and 2019 (alongside hourly charging, driving, and temperature data) to estimate EV use emissions in 60 cases spanning the US. The emission impact of charging pattern varies by region. In California and New York, respectively, overnight EV charging produces ∼70% more and ∼20% fewer emissions than daytime charging. We quantify error from two common approximations in EV emission analysis, ignoring hourly variation in grid power and ignoring temperature-driven variation in fuel economy. The combined error exceeds 10% in 30% of cases, and reaches 50% in California, home to half of US EVs. A novel EV emission approximation is introduced, validated (<1% error), and used to estimate EV emissions in future scenarios.

Rethinking electric vehicle subsidies, rediscovering energy efficiency

Existing regulations regarding fuel energy intensity (MJ/km, litres/100 km, or its inverse, miles per gallon) of light-duty vehicles (LDVs: cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks) for 2025 or 2030 either fall short of the longterm technical potential, or contain numerous loopholes that undermine their effectiveness. At the same time, governments are subsidizing the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) while the market share of SUVs and pickup trucks grows. This paper reviews the feasible fuel and/or electricity energy intensity of LDVs, and argues that the severity of impending anthropogenic global warming merits a strong policy approach that (i) prescribes significant improvements in the energy intensity of non-electric LDVs and plugin hybrid EVs (PHEVs) when running on fuel, (ii) is independent of the number of electric vehicles sold, and (iii) is accompanied by an overall limit on fleet-average CO₂ emissions that applies to all manufacturers irrespective of the average size and mass of vehicles sold. Subsidies for EVs should be scaled back or eliminated, relying instead in the near term on deep across-the-board improvements in the fuel efficiency of LDVs that will have beneficial spillover effects on the eventual energy intensity of EVs and mineral requirements following a delayed market scale-up.

Regional Heterogeneity in the Emissions Benefits of Electrified and Lightweighted Light-Duty Vehicles

Electrification and lightweighting technologies are important components of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction strategies for light-duty vehicles. Assessments of GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles should take a cradle-to-grave life cycle perspective and capture important regional effects. We report the first regionally explicit (county-level) life cycle assessment of the use of lightweighting and electrification for light-duty vehicles in the U.S. Regional differences in climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns compound to produce significant regional heterogeneity in the GHG benefits of electrification. We show that lightweighting further accentuates these regional differences. In fact, for the midsized cars considered in our analysis, model results suggest that aluminum lightweight vehicles with a combustion engine would have similar emissions to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in about 25% of the counties in the US and lower than battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 20% of counties. The results highlight the need for a portfolio of fuel efficient offerings to recognize the heterogeneity of regional climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns.

Life cycle environmental impacts of natural gas drivetrains used in UK road freighting and impacts to UK emission targets

Using natural gas as a fuel in the road freight sector instead of diesel could cut greenhouse gas and air quality emissions but the switch alone is not enough to meet UK climate targets. A life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted comparing natural gas trucks to diesel, biodiesel, dimethyl ether and electric trucks on impacts to climate change, land use change, air quality, human health and resource depletion. This is the first LCA to consider a full suite of environmental impacts and is the first study to estimate what impact natural gas could have on reducing emissions form the UK freight sector. If LNG is used, climate change impacts could be up to 33% lower per km and up to 12% lower per kWh engine output. However, methane emissions will eliminate any benefits if they exceed 1.5-3.5% of throughput for typical fuel consumption. For non-climate impacts, natural gas exhibits lower emissions (11-66%) than diesel for all indicators. Thus, for natural gas climate benefits are modest. However, emissions of CO, methane and particulate matter are over air quality limits set for UK trucks. Of the other options, electric and biodiesel trucks perform best in climate change, but are the worst with respect to land use change (which could have significant impacts on overall climate change benefits), air quality, human toxicity and metals depletion indicators. Natural gas could help reduce the sector's emissions but deeper decarbonization options are required to meet 2030 climate targets, thus the window for beneficial utilisation is short.

Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles

Despite decades of development, proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) still lack wide market acceptance in vehicles. To understand the expected trajectories of PEMFC attributes that influence adoption, we conducted an expert elicitation assessment of the current and expected future cost and performance of automotive PEMFCs. We elicited 39 experts' assessments of PEMFC system cost, stack durability, and stack power density under a hypothetical, large-scale production scenario. Experts assessed the median 2017 automotive cost to be $75/kW, stack durability to be 4,000 hours, and stack power density to be 2.5 kW/L. However, experts ranged widely in their assessments. Experts' 2017 best cost assessments ranged from $40 to $500/kW, durability assessments ranged from 1,200 to 12,000 hours, and power density assessments ranged from 0.5 to 4 kW/L. Most respondents expected the 2020 cost to fall short of the 2020 target of the US Department of Energy (DOE). However, most respondents anticipated that the DOE's ultimate target of $30/kW would be met by 2050 and a power density of 3 kW/L would be achieved by 2035. Fifteen experts thought that the DOE's ultimate durability target of 8,000 hours would be met by 2050. In general, experts identified high Pt group metal loading as the most significant barrier to reducing cost. Recommended research and development (R&D) funding was allocated to "catalysts and electrodes," followed in decreasing amount by "fuel cell performance and durability," "membranes and electrolytes," and "testing and technical assessment." Our results could be used to inform public and private R&D decisions and technology roadmaps.

Development of Rhodococcus opacus as a chassis for lignin valorization and bioproduction of high-value compounds

The current extraction and use of fossil fuels has been linked to extensive negative health and environmental outcomes. Lignocellulosic biomass-derived biofuels and bioproducts are being actively considered as renewable alternatives to the fuels, chemicals, and materials produced from fossil fuels. A major challenge limiting large-scale, economic deployment of second-generation biorefineries is the insufficient product yield, diversity, and value that current conversion technologies can extract from lignocellulose, in particular from the underutilized lignin fraction. Rhodococcus opacus PD630 is an oleaginous gram-positive bacterium with innate catabolic pathways and tolerance mechanisms for the inhibitory aromatic compounds found in depolymerized lignin, as well as native or engineered pathways for hexose and pentose sugars found in the carbohydrate fractions of biomass. As a result, R. opacus holds potential as a biological chassis for the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into biodiesel precursors and other value-added products. This review begins by examining the important role that lignin utilization will play in the future of biorefineries and by providing a concise survey of the current lignin conversion technologies. The genetic machinery and capabilities of R. opacus that allow the bacterium to tolerate and metabolize aromatic compounds and depolymerized lignin are also discussed, along with a synopsis of the genetic toolbox and synthetic biology methods now available for engineering this organism. Finally, we summarize the different feedstocks that R. opacus has been demonstrated to consume, and the high-value products that it has been shown to produce. Engineered R. opacus will enable lignin valorization over the coming years, leading to cost-effective conversion of lignocellulose into fuels, chemicals, and materials.