Machine Estimation of Drug Melting Properties and Influence on Solubility Prediction

Towards the prediction of drug solubility in binary solvent mixtures at various temperatures using machine learning

Drug solubility is an important parameter in the drug development process, yet it is often tedious and challenging to measure, especially for expensive drugs or those available in small quantities. To alleviate these challenges, machine learning (ML) has been applied to predict drug solubility as an alternative approach. However, the majority of existing ML research has focused on the predictions of aqueous solubility and/or solubility at specific temperatures, which restricts the model applicability in pharmaceutical development. To bridge this gap, we compiled a dataset of 27,000 solubility datapoints, including solubility of small molecules measured in a range of binary solvent mixtures under various temperatures. Next, a panel of ML models were trained on this dataset with their hyperparameters tuned using Bayesian optimization. The resulting top-performing models, both gradient boosted decision trees (light gradient boosting machine and extreme gradient boosting), achieved mean absolute errors (MAE) of 0.33 for LogS (S in g/100 g) on the holdout set. These models were further validated through a prospective study, wherein the solubility of four drug molecules were predicted by the models and then validated with in-house solubility experiments. This prospective study demonstrated that the models accurately predicted the solubility of solutes in specific binary solvent mixtures under different temperatures, especially for drugs whose features closely align within the solutes in the dataset (MAE < 0.5 for LogS). To support future research and facilitate advancements in the field, we have made the dataset and code openly available. Scientific contribution Our research advances the state-of-the-art in predicting solubility for small molecules by leveraging ML and a uniquely comprehensive dataset. Unlike existing ML studies that predominantly focus on solubility in aqueous solvents at fixed temperatures, our work enables prediction of drug solubility in a variety of binary solvent mixtures over a broad temperature range, providing practical insights on the modeling of solubility for realistic pharmaceutical applications. These advancements along with the open access dataset and code support significant steps in the drug development process including new molecule discovery, drug analysis and formulation.

COSMOPharm: Drug-Polymer Compatibility of Pharmaceutical Amorphous Solid Dispersions from COSMO-SAC

The quantum mechanics-aided COSMO-SAC activity coefficient model is applied and systematically examined for predicting the thermodynamic compatibility of drugs and polymers. The drug-polymer compatibility is a key aspect in the rational selection of optimal polymeric carriers for pharmaceutical amorphous solid dispersions (ASD) that enhance drug bioavailability. The drug-polymer compatibility is evaluated in terms of both solubility and miscibility, calculated using standard thermodynamic equilibrium relations based on the activity coefficients predicted by COSMO-SAC. As inherent to COSMO-SAC, our approach relies only on quantum-mechanically derived σ-profiles of the considered molecular species and involves no parameter fitting to experimental data. All σ-profiles used were determined in this work, with those of the polymers being derived from their shorter oligomers by replicating the properties of their central monomer unit(s). Quantitatively, COSMO-SAC achieved an overall average absolute deviation of 13% in weight fraction drug solubility predictions compared to experimental data. Qualitatively, COSMO-SAC correctly categorized different polymer types in terms of their compatibility with drugs and provided meaningful estimations of the amorphous-amorphous phase separation. Furthermore, we analyzed the sensitivity of the COSMO-SAC results for ASD to different model configurations and σ-profiles of polymers. In general, while the free volume and dispersion terms exerted a limited effect on predictions, the structures of oligomers used to produce σ-profiles of polymers appeared to be more important, especially in the case of strongly interacting polymers. Explanations for these observations are provided. COSMO-SAC proved to be an efficient method for compatibility prediction and polymer screening in ASD, particularly in terms of its performance-cost ratio, as it relies only on first-principles calculations for the considered molecular species. The open-source nature of both COSMO-SAC and the Python-based tool COSMOPharm, developed in this work for predicting the API-polymer thermodynamic compatibility, invites interested readers to explore and utilize this method for further research or assistance in the design of pharmaceutical formulations.

The Relationship Between Molecular Symmetry and Physicochemical Properties Involving Boiling and Melting of Organic Compounds

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS

The reliable estimation of phase transition physicochemical properties such as boiling and melting points can be valuable when designing compounds with desired physicochemical properties. This study explores the role of external rotational symmetry in determining boiling and melting points of select organic compounds. Using experimental data from the literature, the entropies of boiling and fusion were obtained for 541 compounds. The statistical significance of external rotational symmetry number on entropies of phase change was determined by using multiple linear regression. In addition, a series of aliphatic hydrocarbons, polysubstituted benzenes, and di-substituted napthalenes are used as examples to demonstrate the role of external symmetry on transition temperature.

RESULTS

The results reveal that symmetry is not well correlated with boiling point but is statistically significant in melting point.

CONCLUSION

The lack of correlation between the boiling point and the symmetry number reflects the fact that molecules have a high degree of rotational freedom in both the liquid and the vapor. On the other hand, the strong relationship between symmetry and melting point reflects the fact that molecules are rotationally restricted in the crystal but not in the liquid. Since the symmetry number is equal to the number of ways that the molecule can be properly oriented for incorporation into the crystal lattice, it is a significant determinant of the melting point.

Can Pure Predictions of Activity Coefficients from PC-SAFT Assist Drug-Polymer Compatibility Screening?

The bioavailability of poorly water-soluble active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) can be improved via the formulation of an amorphous solid dispersion (ASD), where the API is incorporated into a suitable polymeric carrier. Optimal carriers that exhibit good compatibility (i.e., solubility and miscibility) with given APIs are typically identified through experimental means, which are routinely labor- and cost-inefficient. Therefore, the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state, a popular thermodynamic model in pharmaceutical applications, is examined in terms of its performance regarding the computational pure prediction of API-polymer compatibility based on activity coefficients (API fusion properties were taken from experiments) without any binary interaction parameters fitted to API-polymer experimental data (that is, kij = 0 in all cases). This kind of prediction does not need any experimental binary information and has been underreported in the literature so far, as the routine modeling strategy used in the majority of the existing PC-SAFT applications to ASDs comprised the use of nonzero kij values. The predictive performance of PC-SAFT was systematically and thoroughly evaluated against reliable experimental data for almost 40 API-polymer combinations. We also examined the effect of different sets of PC-SAFT parameters for APIs on compatibility predictions. Quantitatively, the total average error calculated over all systems was approximately 50% in the weight fraction solubility of APIs in polymers, regardless of the specific API parametrization. The magnitude of the error for individual systems was found to vary significantly from one system to another. Interestingly, the poorest results were obtained for systems with self-associating polymers such as poly(vinyl alcohol). Such polymers can form intramolecular hydrogen bonds, which are not accounted for in the PC-SAFT variant routinely applied to ASDs (i.e., that used in this work). However, the qualitative ranking of polymers with respect to their compatibility with a given API was reasonably predicted in many cases. It was also predicted correctly that some polymers always have better compatibility with the APIs than others. Finally, possible future routes to improve the cost-performance ratio of PC-SAFT in terms of parametrization are discussed.

COSMO Models for the Pharmaceutical Development of Parenteral Drug Formulations

The aqueous solubility of active pharmaceutical ingredients is one of the most important features to be considered during the development of parenteral formulations in the pharmaceutical industry. Computational modelling has become in the last years an integral part of pharmaceutical development. In this context, ab initio computational models, such as COnductor-like Screening MOdel (COSMO), have been proposed as promising tools for the prediction of results without the effective use of resources. Nevertheless, despite the clear evaluation of computational resources, some authors had not achieved satisfying results and new calculations and algorithms have been proposed over the years to improve the outcomes. In the development and production of aqueous parenteral formulations, the solubility of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) in an aqueous and biocompatible vehicle is a decisive step. This work aims to study the hypothesis that COSMO models could be useful in the development of new parenteral formulations, mainly aqueous ones.

Determination of Melting Parameters of Cyclodextrins Using Fast Scanning Calorimetry

The first evidence of native cyclodextrins fusion was registered using fast scanning calorimetry (FSC) with heating rates up to 40,000 K s-1. The endothermal effects, detected at low heating rates, correspond to the decomposition processes. Upon the increase of the heating rate the onset of these effects shifts to higher temperatures, reaching a limiting value at high heating rates. The limiting temperatures were identified as the melting points of α-, β- and γ-cyclodextrins, as the decomposition processes are suppressed at high heating rates. For γ-cyclodextrin the fusion enthalpy was measured. The activation energies of thermal decomposition of cyclodextrins were determined by dependence of the observed thermal effects on heating rates from 4 K min-1 in conventional differential scanning calorimetry to 40,000 K s-1 in FSC. The lower thermal stability and activation energy of decomposition of β-cyclodextrin than for the other two cyclodextrins were found, which may be explained by preliminary phase transition and chemical reaction without mass loss. The obtained values of fusion parameters of cyclodextrins are needed in theoretical models widely used for prediction of solubility and solution rates and in preparation of cyclodextrin inclusion compounds involving heating.

Purely Predicting the Pharmaceutical Solubility: What to Expect from PC-SAFT and COSMO-RS?

A pair of popular thermodynamic models for pharmaceutical applications, namely, the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state and the conductor-like screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS) are thoroughly benchmarked for their performance in predicting the solubility of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in pure solvents. The ultimate goal is to provide an illustration of what to expect from these progressive frameworks when applied to the thermodynamic solubility of APIs based on activity coefficients in a purely predictive regime without specific experimental solubility data (the fusion properties of pure APIs were taken from experiments). While this kind of prediction represents the typical modus operandi of the first-principles-aided COSMO-RS, PC-SAFT is a relatively highly parametrized model that relies on experimental data, against which its pure-substance and binary interaction parameters (k_ij) are fitted. Therefore, to make this benchmark as fair as possible, we omitted any binary parameters of PC-SAFT (i.e., k_ij = 0 in all cases) and preferred pure-substance parameter sets for APIs not trained to experimental solubility data. This computational approach, together with a detailed assessment of the obtained solubility predictions against a large experimental data set, revealed that COSMO-RS convincingly outperformed PC-SAFT both qualitatively (i.e., COSMO-RS was better in solvent ranking) and quantitatively, even though the former is independent of both substance- and mixture-specific experimental data. Regarding quantitative comparison, COSMO-RS outperformed PC-SAFT for 9 of the 10 APIs and for 63% of the API-solvent systems, with root-mean-square deviations of the predicted data from the entire experimental data set being 0.82 and 1.44 log units, respectively. The results were further analyzed to expand the picture of the performance of both models with respect to the individual APIs and solvents. Interestingly, in many cases, both models were found to qualitatively incorrectly predict the direction of deviations from ideality. Furthermore, we examined how the solubility predictions from both models are sensitive to different API parametrizations.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms to Crystallization

Artificial intelligence and specifically machine learning applications are nowadays used in a variety of scientific applications and cutting-edge technologies, where they have a transformative impact. Such an assembly of statistical and linear algebra methods making use of large data sets is becoming more and more integrated into chemistry and crystallization research workflows. This review aims to present, for the first time, a holistic overview of machine learning and cheminformatics applications as a novel, powerful means to accelerate the discovery of new crystal structures, predict key properties of organic crystalline materials, simulate, understand, and control the dynamics of complex crystallization process systems, as well as contribute to high throughput automation of chemical process development involving crystalline materials. We critically review the advances in these new, rapidly emerging research areas, raising awareness in issues such as the bridging of machine learning models with first-principles mechanistic models, data set size, structure, and quality, as well as the selection of appropriate descriptors. At the same time, we propose future research at the interface of applied mathematics, chemistry, and crystallography. Overall, this review aims to increase the adoption of such methods and tools by chemists and scientists across industry and academia.

Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Apparent Degree of Supersaturation in Supersaturated Lipid-Based Formulations: A Pilot Study

In response to the increasing application of machine learning (ML) across many facets of pharmaceutical development, this pilot study investigated if ML, using artificial neural networks (ANNs), could predict the apparent degree of supersaturation (aDS) from two supersaturated LBFs (sLBFs). Accuracy was compared to partial least squares (PLS) regression models. Equilibrium solubility in Capmul MCM and Maisine CC was obtained for 21 poorly water-soluble drugs at ambient temperature and 60 °C to calculate the aDS ratio. These aDS ratios and drug descriptors were used to train the ML models. When compared, the ANNs outperformed PLS for both sLBF_Capmul^MC (r² 0.90 vs. 0.56) and sLBF_Maisine^LC (r² 0.83 vs. 0.62), displaying smaller root mean square errors (RMSEs) and residuals upon training and testing. Across all the models, the descriptors involving reactivity and electron density were most important for prediction. This pilot study showed that ML can be employed to predict the propensity for supersaturation in LBFs, but even larger datasets need to be evaluated to draw final conclusions.

Rational Selection of Bio-Enabling Oral Drug Formulations - A PEARRL Commentary

New drug candidates often require bio-enabling formation technologies such as lipid-based formulations, solid dispersions, or nanosized drug formulations. Development of such more sophisticated delivery systems generally requires higher resource investment compared to a conventional oral dosage form, which might slow down clinical development. To achieve the biopharmaceutical objectives while enabling rapid cost effective development, it is imperative to identify a suitable formulation technique for a given drug candidate as early as possible. Hence many companies have developed internal decision trees based mostly on prior organizational experience, though they also contain some arbitrary elements. As part of the EU funded PEARRL project, a number of new decision trees are here proposed that reflect both the current scientific state of the art and a consensus among the industrial project partners. This commentary presents and discusses these, while also going beyond this classical expert approach with a pilot study using emerging machine learning, where the computer suggests formulation strategy based on the physicochemical and biopharmaceutical properties of a molecule. Current limitations are discussed and an outlook is provided for likely future developments in this emerging field of pharmaceutics.

Synergistic Computational Modeling Approaches as Team Players in the Game of Solubility Predictions

Several approaches to predict and model drug solubility have been used in the drug discovery and development processes during the last decades. Each of these approaches have their own benefits and place, and are typically used as standalone approaches rather than in concert. The synergistic effects of these are often overlooked, partly due to the need of computational experts to perform the modeling and simulations as well as analyzing the data obtained. Here we provide our views on how these different approaches can be used to retrieve more information on drug solubility, ranging from multivariate data analysis over thermodynamic cycle modeling to molecular dynamics simulations. We are discussing aqueous solubility as well as solubility in more complex mixed solvents and media with colloidal structures present. We conclude that the field of computational pharmaceutics is in its early days but with a bright future ahead. However, education of computational formulators with broad knowledge of modeling and simulation approaches is imperative if computational pharmaceutics is to reach its full potential.