Does simplifying transport and exposure yield reliable results? An analysis of four risk assessment methods

Ecological, groundwater, and human health risk assessment in a mining region of Nicaragua

The objective of the present study was to integrate the relative risk from mercury exposure to stream biota, groundwater, and humans in the Río Artiguas (Sucio) river basin, Nicaragua, where local gold mining occurs. A hazard quotient was used as a common exchange rate in probabilistic estimations of exposure and effects by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The endpoint for stream organisms was the lethal no-observed-effect concentration (NOECs), for groundwater the WHO guideline and the inhibitory Hg concentrations in bacteria (IC), and for humans the tolerable daily intake (TDI) and the benchmark dose level with an uncertainty factor of 10 (BMDLs(0.1)). Macroinvertebrates and fish in the contaminated river are faced with a higher risk to suffer from exposure to Hg than humans eating contaminated fish and bacteria living in the groundwater. The river sediment is the most hazardous source for the macroinvertebrates, and macroinvertebrates make up the highest risk for fish. The distribution of body concentrations of Hg in fish in the mining areas of the basin may exceed the distribution of endpoint values with close to 100% probability. Similarly, the Hg concentration in cord blood of humans feeding on fish from the river was predicted to exceed the BMDLs(0.1) with about 10% probability. Most of the risk to the groundwater quality is confined to the vicinity of the gold refining plants and along the river, with a probability of about 20% to exceed the guideline value.

Occurrence and potential risks of harmful algal blooms in the East China Sea

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have drawn great attention in coastal areas worldwide in the past decades because of their multiple effects on marine ecosystems as well as public health. This study utilized geographic information system (GIS) techniques to analyze the primary data on HABs, as well as shellfish toxins data, in the East China Sea from 2000 to 2006. The frequency of HABs was mapped by kernel density estimation, and the relative risk posed by HABs was assessed based on their physical-chemical characteristics. In addition, the spatial patterns and the trend of HAB events were examined by nearest neighbor analysis and time series analysis, respectively. The results revealed that HAB events not only had an increasing trend and significant seasonality, but also were clustered in space and time. HAB events displayed a higher frequency and a higher risk in Zhejiang coastal waters, particularly in the Zhoushan Archipelago, the largest marine fishery in China. Shellfish toxins were detected in areas with high HAB risk, but were not correlated with the risk. This paper provides a novel method to assess the relative risk caused by HABs and some useful information for HAB monitoring and management and aquaculture development.