Analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in global tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2020

Tropospheric ozone affects human health, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies on Tropospheric Column Ozone (TCO) have primarily concentrated on specific regions or global geographic divisions. This has led to insufficient exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of TCO in global and rational subregions. In this study, TCO is calculated using the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and corrected using satellite data. Cluster analysis is conducted to explore the temporal characteristics of TCO variations in different regions. The results show that the global TCO is basically distributed latitudinally, with higher TCO in the northern hemisphere, which is related to atmospheric circulation, radiation, stratospheric transport, and the distribution of ozone precursors. Between 1980 and 2020, the global average annual TCO showed an increasing trend at 0.09 DU yr-1 due to rising anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors (NOx at 589547.86 t yr-1 and NMVOC at 1070818.24 t yr-1), increasing tropopause height (-0.10 hPa yr-1), and the enhanced ozone flux at the tropopause (0.22 ppbv m s-2 yr-1). Cluster analysis reveals different trends in TCO changes across regions. The ocean south of 60°S and parts of West Antarctica (Region 2), the region from 30°N to 60°N and the western oceanic region of 30°S (Region 3), and the region from the equator to 60°S and the region north of 60°N (Region 5) exhibit increasing trends (with rates of 0.08 DU yr-1, 0.07 DU yr-1, and 0.11 DU yr-1, respectively), linked to the enhanced ozone flux at the tropopause, the rising tropopause height and increasing ozone p precursors. Conversely, the decreasing TCO trends in the equatorial Pacific (Region 1) and East Antarctica (Region 4) (with rates of -0.01 DU yr-1 and -0.02 DU yr-1) may be related to increased cloudiness and weakened photochemical reactions.

The Combined QBO and ENSO Influence on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Atlantic Ocean

The Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) largely modulate the zonal wind in the tropics. Previous studies showed that QBO phases produce changes in deep convection through an increase/decrease in the tropopause height over the tropics and subtropics. This study investigates the combined effects of QBO and ENSO on tropical cyclone activity by modulating tropopause height. We found that tropopause height increases over the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean region, and the Western North Atlantic Ocean during La Niña + QBOW, allowing deeper tropical convection to develop over those regions. As a consequence, TC activity over those regions is not only increased in number but also enhanced in intensity. Conversely, during El Niño + QBOE, most deep tropical convection is inhibited over those same regions due to the decrease in tropopause height over the subtropics. We conclude that QBO effects on TCs and deep convection should be studied in combination with ENSO. Additional comparative studies using long record data at high vertical resolution are needed to fully understand to what extent QBO interacts with ENSO in the lower tropical stratosphere and upper tropical troposphere.

Continuous rise of the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere over 1980-2020

Tropopause height (H) is a sensitive diagnostic for anthropogenic climate change. Previous studies showed increases in H over 1980–2000 but were inconsistent in projecting H trends after 2000. While H generally responds to temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere, the relative importance of these two contributions is uncertain. Here, we use radiosonde balloon observations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over 20°N to 80°N to reveal a continuous rise of H over 1980–2020. Over 2001–2020, H increases at 50 to 60 m/decade, which is comparable to the trend over 1980–2000. The GPS radio occultation measurements from satellites and homogenized radiosonde records are in good agreement with those results. The continuous rise of the tropopause in the NH after 2000 results primarily from tropospheric warming. A large trend in H remains after major natural forcings for H are removed, providing further observational evidence for anthropogenic climate change.

Validation of GOSAT and OCO-2 against In Situ Aircraft Measurements and Comparison with CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem over Qinhuangdao, China

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas and several satellites have been launched to monitor the atmospheric CO2 at regional and global scales. Evaluation of the measurements obtained from these satellites against accurate and precise instruments is crucial. In this work, aircraft measurements of CO2 were carried out over Qinhuangdao, China (39.9354°N, 119.6005°E), on 14, 16, and 19 March 2019 to validate the Greenhous gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) CO2 retrievals. The airborne in situ instruments were mounted on a research aircraft and the measurements were carried out between the altitudes of ~0.5 and 8.0 km to obtain the vertical profiles of CO2. The profiles captured a decrease in CO2 concentration from the surface to maximum altitude. Moreover, the vertical profiles from GEOS-Chem and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CarbonTracker were also compared with in situ and satellite datasets. The satellite and the model datasets captured the vertical structure of CO2 when compared with in situ measurements, which showed good agreement among the datasets. The dry-air column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2) retrieved from OCO-2 and GOSAT showed biases of 1.33 ppm (0.32%) and −1.70 ppm (−0.41%), respectively, relative to the XCO2 derived from in situ measurements.

Evaluation of Four Reanalysis Datasets against Radiosonde over Southwest Asia

Upper-air observational networks in Southwest Asia (SWA) are geographically sparse and reanalysis datasets (RDs) are a typical alternative. However, RDs can perform with varying degrees of quality and accuracy due to differences in assimilation schemes and input observations, among other factors. Geopotential height (gph), air temperature (tmp) and horizontal wind (U and V) modelled by the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), the ERA fifth-generation (ERA-5), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA), are compared with radiosonde observations at three standard vertical levels (850, 500 and 300 hPa). Results showed that most RDs represent the general climatology, and ERA-5 tended to show the smallest agreements in most cases. RDs did not show consistent performance across seasons, variables, and pressure levels. RDs tended to conduct reasonable estimates over subregions with less complex topography. RDs showed better resampling performance at the upper and lower ends of sounding data distributions more frequently than around the means for most of the variables. This highlights the high potential usefulness of RDs in studying extremes over the region.

Retrievals of Convective Detrainment Heights Using Ground-Based Radar Observations

To better constrain model simulations, more observations of convective detrainment heights are needed. For the first time, ground-based S band radar observations are utilized to create a comprehensive view of irreversible convective transport over a 7-year period for the months of May and July across the United States. The radar observations are coupled with a volumetric radar echo classification scheme and a methodology that uses the convective anvil as proxy for convective detrainment to determine the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) for deep moist convection. The LMD height retrievals are subset by month (i.e., May and July), by morphology (i.e., mesoscale convective system, MCS, and quasi-isolated strong convection, QISC), and region (i.e., northcentral, southcentral, northeast, and southeast). Overall, 135,890 deep convective storms were successfully sampled and had a mean LMD height of 8.6 km or tropopause-relative mean LMD height of -4.3 km; however, LMD heights were found to extend up to 2 km above the tropopause. May storms had higher mean tropopause-relative LMD heights, but July storms contained the highest overall LMD heights that more commonly extended above the tropopause. QISC had higher mean tropopause-relative LMD heights and more commonly had LMD heights above the tropopause while only a few MCSs had LMD heights above the tropopause. The regional analysis showed that northern regions have higher mean LMD heights due to large amounts of diurnally driven convection being sampled in the southern regions. By using the anvil top, the highest possible convective detrainment heights extended up to 6 km above the tropopause.

Validation of Preliminary Results of Thermal Tropopause Derived from FY-3C GNOS Data

The state-of-art global navigation satellite system (GNSS) occultation sounder (GNOS) onboard the FengYun 3 series C satellite (FY-3C) has been in operation for more than five years. The accumulation of FY-3C GNOS atmospheric data makes it ready to be used in atmosphere and climate research fields. This work first introduces FY-3C GNOS into tropopause research and gives the error evaluation results of long-term FY-3C atmosphere profiles. We compare FY-3C results with Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) and radiosonde results and also present the FY-3C global seasonal tropopause patterns. The mean temperature deviation between FY-3C GNOS temperature profiles and COSMIC temperature profiles from January 2014 to December 2017 is globally less than 0.2 K, and the bias of tropopause height (TPH) and tropopause temperature (TPT) annual cycle derived from both collocated pairs are about 80–100 m and 1–2 K, respectively. Also, the correlation coefficients between FY-3C GNOS tropopause parameters and each radiosonde counterpart are generally larger than 0.9 and the corresponding regression coefficients are close to 1. Multiple climate phenomena shown in seasonal patterns coincide with results of other relevant studies. Our results demonstrate the long-term stability of FY-3C GNOS atmosphere profiles and utility of FY-3C GNOS data in the climate research field.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Modeling the QBO-Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution

Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS), a realistic stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is modeled with the proper period, amplitude, and structure down to tropopause levels. It is furthermore shown that the specified gravity wave momentum flux controls the QBO period whereas the width of the gravity wave momentum flux phase speed spectrum controls the QBO amplitude. Fine vertical layering is required for the proper downward extension to tropopause levels as this permits wave-mean flow interactions in the UTLS region to be resolved in the model. When vertical resolution is increased from 1000 to 500 m, the modeled QBO modulation of the tropical tropopause temperatures increasingly approach that from observations, and the "tape recorder" of stratospheric water vapor also approaches the observed. The transport characteristics of our GISS models are assessed using age-of-air and N₂O diagnostics, and it is shown that some of the deficiencies in model transport that have been noted in previous GISS models are greatly improved for all of our tested model vertical resolutions. More realistic tropical-extratropical transport isolation, commonly referred to as the "tropical pipe," results from the finer vertical model layering required to generate a realistic QBO.

An altitude and distance correction to the source fluence distribution of TGFs

The source fluence distribution of terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) has been extensively discussed in recent years, but few have considered how the TGF fluence distribution at the source, as estimated from satellite measurements, depends on the distance from satellite foot point and assumed production altitude. As the absorption of the TGF photons increases significantly with lower source altitude and larger distance between the source and the observing satellite, these might be important factors. We have addressed the issue by using the tropopause pressure distribution as an approximation of the TGF production altitude distribution and World Wide Lightning Location Network spheric measurements to determine the distance. The study is made possible by the increased number of Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) TGFs found in the second catalog of the RHESSI data. One find is that the TGF/lightning ratio for the tropics probably has an annual variability due to an annual variability in the Dobson-Brewer circulation. The main result is an indication that the altitude distribution and distance should be considered when investigating the source fluence distribution of TGFs, as this leads to a softening of the inferred distribution of source brightness.

Indo-Pacific warm pool area expansion, Modoki activity, and tropical cold-point tropopause temperature variations

The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection.

Satellite-derived estimations of spatial and seasonal variation in tropospheric carbon dioxide mass over China

China has frequently been questioned about the data transparency and accuracy of its energy and emission statistics. Satellite-derived remote sensing data potentially provide a useful tool to study the variation in carbon dioxide (CO₂) mass over areas of the earth's surface. In this study, Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) tropospheric CO₂ concentration data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis tropopause data were integrated to obtain estimates of tropospheric CO₂ mass variations over the surface of China. These variations were mapped to show seasonal and spatial patterns with reference to China's provincial areas. The estimates of provincial tropospheric CO₂ were related to statistical estimates of CO₂ emissions for the provinces and considered with reference to provincial populations and gross regional products (GRP). Tropospheric CO₂ masses for the Chinese provinces ranged from 53 ± 1 to 14,470 ± 63 million tonnes were greater for western than for eastern provinces and were primarily a function of provincial land area. Adjusted for land area troposphere CO₂ mass was higher for eastern and southern provinces than for western and northern provinces. Tropospheric CO₂ mass over China varied with season being highest in July and August and lowest in January and February. The average annual emission from provincial energy statistics of CO₂ by China was estimated as 10.3% of the average mass of CO₂ in the troposphere over China. The relationship between statistical emissions relative to tropospheric CO₂ mass was higher than 20% for developed coastal provinces of China, with Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing having exceptionally high percentages. The percentages were generally lower than 10% for western inland provinces. Provincial estimates of emissions of CO₂ were significantly positively related to provincial populations and gross regional products (GRP) when the values for the provincial municipalities Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing were excluded from the linear regressions. An increase in provincial GRP per person was related to a curvilinear increase in CO₂ emissions, this being particularly marked for Beijing, Tianjin, and especially Shanghai. The absence of detection of specific elevation of CO₂ mass in the troposphere above these municipalities may relate to the rapid mixing and dispersal of CO₂ emissions or the proportion of the depth of the troposphere sensed by GOSAT.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback

We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

Changes in tropopause height for the Eurasian region determined from CARDS radiosonde data

Previous studies have identified the tropopause height (TH) as a promising fingerprint of climatic change. In the present paper, we report variations in TH for the Eurasian region over the period 1973-1998 and analyse the influence of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) on these variations. As previous studies indicate that the greatest increases in TH occur in the extratropics, we focused our attention on this area. We applied a set of homogenization procedures to radiosonde data and considered three different scenarios that take into account change points and the main volcanic eruptions over the study period. Our results demonstrate that the number of stations with positive TH trends is very sensitive to the quality of data and the methods used to remove inhomogeneities. Consequently, when change points were included in the analysis, the number of stations with positive trends decreased markedly. Furthermore, stratospheric NAM appears to control TH in stations located at latitudes higher than 55 degrees N.

Water isotope ratios D/H, 18O/16O, 17O/16O in and out of clouds map dehydration pathways

Water isotope ratios have been measured by laser absorption spectroscopy in and out of cirrus clouds formed in situ and convectively generated in anvils over subtropical regions. Water vapor in the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere shows a wide range of isotopic depletion not observed previously. The range suggests that dehydration of upper tropospheric air occurs both by convective dehydration and by gradual dehydration mechanisms. Twenty-five percent of upper tropospheric water sampled is in ice particles whose isotopic signatures are used to identify those grown in situ from those lofted from below.

Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for approximately 80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.