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Shindell D, Hunter R, Faluvegi G, Parsons L. Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities. Geohealth 2024; 8:e2023GH000970. [PMID: 38169989 PMCID: PMC10759151 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimatization. Those living in especially hot neighborhoods within cities might therefore suffer much more than average if such adaptation is only at the city-wide level, whereas they might not experience greatly increased risk if adjustment is at the neighborhood level. To compare these possibilities, we use high spatial resolution temperature data to evaluated heat-related deaths assuming either adjustment at the city-wide or at the neighborhood scale in 10 large US cities. On average, we find that if inhabitants are adjusted to their local conditions, a neighborhood that was 10°C hotter than a cooler one would experience only about 1.0-1.5 excess heat deaths per year per 100,000 persons. By contrast, if inhabitants are acclimatized to city-wide temperatures, the hotter neighborhood would experience about 15 excess deaths per year per 100,000 persons. Using idealized analyses, we demonstrate that current city-wide epidemiological data do not differentiate between these differing adjustments. Given the very large effects of assumptions about neighborhood-level acclimatization found here, as well as the fact that current literature is conflicting on the spatial scale of acclimatization, more neighborhood-level epidemiological data are urgently needed to determine the health impacts of variations in heat exposure within urban areas, better constrain projected changes, and inform mitigation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - R. Hunter
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - L. Parsons
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
- Global ScienceThe Nature ConservancyDurhamNCUSA
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2
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Parsons LA, Lo F, Ward A, Shindell D, Raman SR. Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling. Geohealth 2023; 7:e2023GH000809. [PMID: 37577109 PMCID: PMC10413955 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 07/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023]
Abstract
As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature thresholds for safe fan use in adults. Here we use hourly weather reanalysis data (1950-2021) to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of ambient climate conditions in the continental United States (CONUS) considered safe for fan use, focusing on high social vulnerability index (SVI) regions. We find that although most hours in the day are safe for fan use, there are regions that experience hundreds to thousands of hours per year that are too hot for safe fan use. Over the last several decades, the number of hours considered unsafe for fan use has increased across most of the CONUS (on average by ∼70%), with hotspots across the US West and South, suggesting that many individuals will increasingly need alternative cooling strategies. People living in high-SVI locations are 1.5-2 times more likely to experience hotter climate conditions than the overall US population. High-SVI locations also experience higher rates of warming that are approaching and exceeding important safety thresholds that relate to climate adaptation. These results highlight the need to direct additional resources to these communities for heat adaptive strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- L. A. Parsons
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
- Global ScienceThe Nature ConservancyDurhamNCUSA
| | - F. Lo
- Environmental Defense FundNew York CityNYUSA
| | - A. Ward
- Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment, and SustainabilityDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - S. R. Raman
- Population Health SciencesDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
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3
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Shindell D, Faluvegi G, Parsons L, Nagamoto E, Chang J. Premature Deaths in Africa Due To Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios. Geohealth 2022; 6:e2022GH000601. [PMID: 35573486 PMCID: PMC9077466 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Revised: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to fine particulate matter in Africa under a "baseline" scenario with high material consumption, population growth, and warming to that projected under a sustainability scenario with lower consumption, population growth, and warming. Evaluating the mortality impacts of these exposures, we find that under the low warming scenario annual premature deaths due to PM2.5 are reduced by roughly 515,000 by 2050 relative to the high warming scenario (100,000, 175,000, 55,000, 140,000, and 45,000 in Northern, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, respectively). This reduction rises to ∼800,000 by the 2090s, though by that time much of the difference is attributable to the projected differences in population. By contrast, during the first half of the century benefits are driven predominantly by emissions changes. Depending on the region, we find large intermodel spreads of ∼25%-50% in projected future exposures owing to different physics across the ensemble of 6 global models. The spread of projected deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter, including uncertainty in the exposure-response function, are reduced in every region to ∼20%-35% by the non-linear exposure-response function. Differences between the scenarios have an even narrower spread of ∼5%-25% and are highly statistically significant in all regions for all models. These results provide valuable information for policy-makers to consider when working toward climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA
| | - G Faluvegi
- Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University New York NY USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
| | - L Parsons
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA
| | - E Nagamoto
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA
| | - J Chang
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA
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4
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Lauvaux T, Giron C, Mazzolini M, d'Aspremont A, Duren R, Cusworth D, Shindell D, Ciais P. Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters. Science 2022; 375:557-561. [PMID: 35113691 DOI: 10.1126/science.abj4351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a considerable contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) between 2019 and 2020. Ultra-emitters are primarily detected over the largest O&G basins throughout the world. With a total contribution equivalent to 8 to 12% (~8 million metric tons of methane per year) of the global O&G production methane emissions, mitigation of ultra-emitters is largely achievable at low costs and would lead to robust net benefits in billions of US dollars for the six major O&G-producing countries when considering societal costs of methane.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Lauvaux
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, Univ. de Saclay, Saclay, France
| | - C Giron
- Kayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, France
| | - M Mazzolini
- Kayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, France
| | - A d'Aspremont
- Kayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, France.,CNRS & DI, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - R Duren
- Office of Research, Innovation and Impact, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.,Carbon Mapper, 12 S. Raymond St., Suite B, Pasadena, CA 91105, USA
| | - D Cusworth
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - D Shindell
- Earth & Climate Sciences Division, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.,Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.,Climate and Clean Air Coalition, 1 Rue Miollis, Building VII, F-75015 Paris, France
| | - P Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, Univ. de Saclay, Saclay, France.,Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, the Cyprus Institute (CyI), Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus
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5
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Miyazaki K, Bowman K, Sekiya T, Jiang Z, Chen X, Eskes H, Ru M, Zhang Y, Shindell D. Air Quality Response in China Linked to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Lockdown. Geophys Res Lett 2020; 47:e2020GL089252. [PMID: 33173248 PMCID: PMC7646019 DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2020] [Revised: 08/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/08/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19 in China hinged on severe restrictions to human movement starting 23 January 2020 in Wuhan and subsequently to other provinces. Here, we quantify the ancillary impacts on air pollution and human health using inverse emissions estimates based on multiple satellite observations. We find that Chinese NOx emissions were reduced by 36% from early January to mid-February, with more than 80% of reductions occurring after their respective lockdown in most provinces. The reduced precursor emissions increased surface ozone by up to 16 ppb over northern China but decreased PM2.5 by up to 23 μg m-3 nationwide. Changes in human exposure are associated with about 2,100 more ozone-related and at least 60,000 fewer PM2.5-related morbidity incidences, primarily from asthma cases, thereby augmenting efforts to reduce hospital admissions and alleviate negative impacts from potential delayed treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. Miyazaki
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - K. Bowman
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - T. Sekiya
- Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and TechnologyYokohamaJapan
| | - Z. Jiang
- School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefeiChina
| | - X. Chen
- School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefeiChina
| | - H. Eskes
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)De Biltthe Netherlands
| | - M. Ru
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - Y. Zhang
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth SciencesTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
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6
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Richardson TB, Forster PM, Smith CJ, Maycock AC, Wood T, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Hodnebrog Ø, Kasoar M, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque J, Mülmenstädt J, Myhre G, Olivié D, Portmann RW, Samset BH, Shawki D, Shindell D, Stier P, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Watson‐Parris D. Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models. J Geophys Res Atmos 2019; 124:12824-12844. [PMID: 32025453 PMCID: PMC6988499 DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2019] [Revised: 11/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/16/2019] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.
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Affiliation(s)
- T. B. Richardson
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - P. M. Forster
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - C. J. Smith
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - A. C. Maycock
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - T. Wood
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | | | - O. Boucher
- Institut Pierre‐Simon LaplaceCNRS/Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - D. Fläschner
- Atmosphere in the Earth SystemMax‐Planck‐Institut für MeteorologieHamburgGermany
| | - Ø. Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental ResearchOsloNorway
| | - M. Kasoar
- Department of PhysicsImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - A. Kirkevåg
- Research and Development DepartmentNorwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | | | - J. Mülmenstädt
- Clouds and Global ClimateUniversität LeipzigLeipzigGermany
| | - G. Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental ResearchOsloNorway
| | - D. Olivié
- Research and Development DepartmentNorwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | - R. W. Portmann
- Earth System Research LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderCOUSA
| | - B. H. Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental ResearchOsloNorway
| | - D. Shawki
- Department of PhysicsImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - D. Shindell
- Earth & Ocean SciencesDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - P. Stier
- Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - T. Takemura
- Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric ResearchKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan
| | | | - D. Watson‐Parris
- Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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7
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Smith CJ, Kramer RJ, Myhre G, Forster PM, Soden BJ, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Hodnebrog Ø, Kasoar M, Kharin V, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque J, Mülmenstädt J, Olivié D, Richardson T, Samset BH, Shindell D, Stier P, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Watson‐Parris D. Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents. Geophys Res Lett 2018; 45:12023-12031. [PMID: 30686845 PMCID: PMC6334512 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2018] [Revised: 10/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/15/2018] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. J. Smith
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - R. J. Kramer
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFLUSA
| | - G. Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in OsloOsloNorway
| | - P. M. Forster
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - B. J. Soden
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFLUSA
| | | | - O. Boucher
- Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace, CNRS/Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNYUSA
- Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - D. Fläschner
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für MeteorologieHamburgGermany
| | - Ø. Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in OsloOsloNorway
| | - M. Kasoar
- Department of PhysicsImperial College LondonLondonUK
- Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the EnvironmentImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - V. Kharin
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisVictoriaBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - A. Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | | | - J. Mülmenstädt
- Institute of MeteorologyUniversität LeipzigLeipzigGermany
| | - D. Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | - T. Richardson
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - B. H. Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in OsloOsloNorway
| | - D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - P. Stier
- Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | | | - D. Watson‐Parris
- Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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8
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Myhre G, Kramer RJ, Smith CJ, Hodnebrog Ø, Forster P, Soden BJ, Samset BH, Stjern CW, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Kasoar M, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque J, Olivié D, Richardson T, Shindell D, Stier P, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Watson‐Parris D. Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes. Geophys Res Lett 2018; 45:11399-11405. [PMID: 30774164 PMCID: PMC6360531 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 10/12/2018] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- G. Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - R. J. Kramer
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFLUSA
| | - C. J. Smith
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - Ø. Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - P. Forster
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - B. J. Soden
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFLUSA
| | - B. H. Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - C. W. Stjern
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | | | - O. Boucher
- Institut Pierre‐Simon LaplaceCNRS/Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNYUSA
- Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - D. Fläschner
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für MeteorologieHamburgGermany
| | - M. Kasoar
- Department of PhysicsImperial College LondonLondonUK
- Grantham Institute‐Climate Change and the EnvironmentImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - A. Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | | | - D. Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway
| | - T. Richardson
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - P. Stier
- Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - T. Takemura
- Research Institute for Applied MechanicsKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan
| | | | - D. Watson‐Parris
- Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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9
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Liu L, Shawki D, Voulgarakis A, Kasoar M, Samset BH, Myhre G, Forster PM, Hodnebrog Ø, Sillmann J, Aalbergsjø SG, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque JF, Olivié D, Richardson T, Shindell D, Takemura T. A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation. J Clim 2018; 31:4429-4447. [PMID: 32704205 PMCID: PMC7376680 DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0439.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulphate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalised by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Liu
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK and Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - D Shawki
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - A Voulgarakis
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - M Kasoar
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - B H Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - G Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Ø Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - J Sillmann
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - S G Aalbergsjø
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - O Boucher
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Univ. P. et M. Curie / CNRS, Paris, France
| | - G Faluvegi
- Columbia University & NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
| | - T Iversen
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | - A Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - D Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo
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10
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Myhre G, Samset BH, Hodnebrog Ø, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Forster PM, Kasoar M, Kharin V, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque JF, Olivié D, Richardson TB, Shawki D, Shindell D, Shine KP, Stjern CW, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A. Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period. Nat Commun 2018; 9:1922. [PMID: 29765048 PMCID: PMC5954152 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04307-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2017] [Accepted: 04/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research - Oslo, 0318, Oslo, Norway.
| | - B H Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research - Oslo, 0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - Ø Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research - Oslo, 0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - T Andrews
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
| | - O Boucher
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/Sorbonne Université, 75252, Paris, Cedex 05, France
| | - G Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA
| | - D Fläschner
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - P M Forster
- University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
| | - M Kasoar
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - V Kharin
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, V8P 5C2, Victoria, BC,, Canada
| | - A Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0313, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - D Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0313, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - D Shawki
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | | | - K P Shine
- University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
| | - C W Stjern
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research - Oslo, 0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - T Takemura
- Kyushu University, 816-8580, Kasuga, Japan
| | - A Voulgarakis
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
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11
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Fuglestvedt J, Rogelj J, Millar RJ, Allen M, Boucher O, Cain M, Forster PM, Kriegler E, Shindell D. Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2018; 376:20160445. [PMID: 29610378 PMCID: PMC5897819 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/21/2017] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve 'balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on 'greenhouse gas balance' is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Fuglestvedt
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
| | - J Rogelj
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8006 Zurich, Switzerland
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - R J Millar
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - M Allen
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
- Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK
| | - O Boucher
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - M Cain
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
- Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 34 Broad Street, Oxford OX1 3BD, UK
| | - P M Forster
- School of Earth and Environment, Maths/Earth and Environment Building, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - E Kriegler
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - D Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
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12
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Richardson TB, Forster PM, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Kasoar M, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque JF, Myhre G, Olivié D, Samset BH, Shawki D, Shindell D, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying. Geophys Res Lett 2018; 45:2815-2825. [PMID: 33041385 PMCID: PMC7546038 DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating, and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multi-model mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model-mean.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - T Andrews
- Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom
| | - O Boucher
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie / CNRS, Paris, France
| | - G Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - D Fläschner
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
| | - M Kasoar
- Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - A Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - G Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - D Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | - B H Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - D Shawki
- Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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13
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Shindell D, Borgford-Parnell N, Brauer M, Haines A, Kuylenstierna JCI, Leonard SA, Ramanathan V, Ravishankara A, Amann M, Srivastava L. A climate policy pathway for near- and long-term benefits. Science 2018; 356:493-494. [PMID: 28473553 DOI: 10.1126/science.aak9521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- D Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
| | - N Borgford-Parnell
- Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Washington, DC 20008, USA
| | - M Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - A Haines
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WCIH 9SH, UK
| | | | - S A Leonard
- United Nations Environment Programme, 75015 Paris, France
| | - V Ramanathan
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | | | - M Amann
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361 Austria
| | - L Srivastava
- TERI University, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110 070, India
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14
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Myhre G, Forster PM, Samset BH, Hodnebrog Ø, Sillmann J, Aalbergsjø SG, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Iversen T, Kasoar M, Kharin V, Lamarque JF, Olivié D, Richardson T, Shindell D, Shine KP, Stjern CW, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Zwiers F. PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2017; 98:1185-1198. [PMID: 32713957 PMCID: PMC7380094 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-16-0019.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Myhre
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | | | - B H Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - Ø Hodnebrog
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo Norway
| | - J Sillmann
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - S G Aalbergsjø
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | - T Andrews
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
| | - O Boucher
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, Univ. P et M. Curie / CNRS, Paris, France
| | | | - D Fläschner
- Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg Germany
| | - T Iversen
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | - M Kasoar
- Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - V Kharin
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada A. Kirkevåg, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - D Olivié
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - K P Shine
- University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Camilla W Stjern
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - F Zwiers
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium University of Victoria, Canada
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15
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Westervelt DM, Conley AJ, Fiore AM, Lamarque JF, Shindell D, Previdi M, Faluvegi G, Correa G, Horowitz LW. Multimodel precipitation responses to removal of U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions. J Geophys Res Atmos 2017; 122:5024-5038. [PMID: 33005557 PMCID: PMC7526610 DOI: 10.1002/2017jd026756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Emissions of aerosols and their precursors are declining due to policies enacted to protect human health, yet we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical mechanisms of precipitation responses to aerosol reductions. We quantify the global and regional precipitation responses to U.S. SO2 emission reductions using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2. We contrast 200 year (or longer) simulations in which anthropogenic U.S. sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are set to zero with present-day control simulations to assess the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation response to U.S. SO2 reductions. In all three models, reductions in aerosol optical depth up to 70% and cloud droplet number column concentration up to 60% occur over the eastern U.S. and extend over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation responses occur both locally and remotely, with the models consistently showing an increase in most regions considered. We find a northward shift of the tropical rain belt location of up to 0.35° latitude especially near the Sahel, where the rainy season length and intensity are significantly enhanced in two of the three models. This enhancement is the result of greater warming in the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres, which acts to shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, delivering additional wet season rainfall to the Sahel. Two of our three models thus imply a previously unconsidered benefit of continued U.S. SO2 reductions for Sahel precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. M. Westervelt
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
| | - A. J. Conley
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - A. M. Fiore
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
| | - J.-F. Lamarque
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - D. Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - M. Previdi
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - G. Correa
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
| | - L. W. Horowitz
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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16
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Geller MA, Zhou T, Shindell D, Ruedy R, Aleinov I, Nazarenko L, Tausnev NL, Kelley M, Sun S, Cheng Y, Field RD, Faluvegi G. Modeling the QBO-Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution. J Adv Model Earth Syst 2016; 8:1092-1105. [PMID: 27917258 PMCID: PMC5114865 DOI: 10.1002/2016ms000699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2016] [Accepted: 06/07/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS), a realistic stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is modeled with the proper period, amplitude, and structure down to tropopause levels. It is furthermore shown that the specified gravity wave momentum flux controls the QBO period whereas the width of the gravity wave momentum flux phase speed spectrum controls the QBO amplitude. Fine vertical layering is required for the proper downward extension to tropopause levels as this permits wave-mean flow interactions in the UTLS region to be resolved in the model. When vertical resolution is increased from 1000 to 500 m, the modeled QBO modulation of the tropical tropopause temperatures increasingly approach that from observations, and the "tape recorder" of stratospheric water vapor also approaches the observed. The transport characteristics of our GISS models are assessed using age-of-air and N2O diagnostics, and it is shown that some of the deficiencies in model transport that have been noted in previous GISS models are greatly improved for all of our tested model vertical resolutions. More realistic tropical-extratropical transport isolation, commonly referred to as the "tropical pipe," results from the finer vertical model layering required to generate a realistic QBO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marvin A. Geller
- School of Marine and Atmospheric SciencesStony Brook UniversityStony BrookNew YorkUSA
| | - Tiehan Zhou
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - D. Shindell
- Earth and Ocean SciencesNicholas School of the Environment, Duke UniversityDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - R. Ruedy
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Trinnovim LLCNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - I. Aleinov
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - L. Nazarenko
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - N. L. Tausnev
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Trinnovim LLCNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - M. Kelley
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Trinnovim LLCNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - S. Sun
- NOAA/Earth System Research LaboratoryBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Y. Cheng
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - R. D. Field
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied MathematicsColumbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - G. Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
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17
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Pendergast D, Shindell D, Cerretelli P, Rennie D. Role of Central and Peripheral Circulatory Adjustments in Oxygen Transport at the Onset of Exercise. Int J Sports Med 2008. [DOI: 10.1055/s-2008-1034654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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18
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Dentener F, Stevenson D, Ellingsen K, Van Noije T, Schultz M, Amann M, Atherton C, Bell N, Bergmann D, Bey I, Bouwman L, Butler T, Cofala J, Collins B, Drevet J, Doherty R, Eickhout B, Eskes H, Fiore A, Gauss M, Hauglustaine D, Horowitz L, Isaksen ISA, Josse B, Lawrence M, Krol M, Lamarque JF, Montanaro V, Müller JF, Peuch VH, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rast S, Rodriguez I, Sanderson M, Savage NH, Shindell D, Strahan S, Szopa S, Sudo K, Van Dingenen R, Wild O, Zeng G. The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. Environ Sci Technol 2006; 40:3586-94. [PMID: 16786698 DOI: 10.1021/es0523845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/-1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2) yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Dentener
- Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, via E. Fermi 1, 1-21020, Ispra, Italy.
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Abstract
Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Shindell
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA
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Cerretelli P, Shindell D, Pendergast DP, Di Prampero PE, Rennie DW. Oxygen uptake transients at the onset and offset of arm and leg work. Respir Physiol 1977; 30:81-97. [PMID: 877453 DOI: 10.1016/0034-5687(77)90023-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
The halftimes (t1/2) of the VO2 on-and off-responses have been determined on 4 moderately active subjects (1) in arm cranking (VO2 congruent to 1 1/min). (2) in leg pedaling at 4 graded submaximal (VO2 congruent to 0.8 to 2.51/min) work loads, and (3) when superimposing arm cranking on preexisting leg pedaling, both in the supine and in the upright position. In supine experiments the mean t1/2 of the VO2 on-response was longer for arm cranking than for leg pedaling (64 vs 44-49 sec) at equal VO2; however, at the same percentage of arm and leg VO2 max the respective t1/2 were similar. In sitting experiments all t1/2 of the VO2 on-response were shorter than when supine, but the t1/2 for the arms were still slightly longer than those for the legs. When arm cranking was superimposed on preexisting leg pedaling, the t1/4 for arms was reduced both in supine (from 64 to 35-38 sec) and in the sitting position (from 44 to 40 sec). The halftime of the VO2 off-response were much shorter (20-32 sec) than those of the on-response and similar in all experiments. In all conditions the O2 deficits at work onset were considerably larger than the fast component of the corresponding O2 debts during the first minutes of recovery. The difference was totally accounted for by anaerobic glycolysis occurring early during the VO2 on-response, particularly in arm exercise. It is concluded that at submaximal work loads the O2 deficit is accounted for the fast component of the O2 debt plus the O2 equivalent of the early lactate production.
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Bishop B, Hoffman H, Wallis I, Shindell D. Effects of increased ambient pressure and nitrogen on man's monosynaptic reflexes. J Appl Physiol (1985) 1975; 38:86-90. [PMID: 122822 DOI: 10.1152/jappl.1975.38.1.86] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Neurological signs during dives may result from altered excitability of central neurons. The present study assesses the effect of an increase in pressure from 1 to 3 ATA on the excitability of muscle spindles and alpha motoneurons by comparing the EMG amplitudes of the mechanically and electrically elicited monosynaptic reflexes of the gastrocnemius-soleus muscle in 10 normal adults breathing a normoxic oxygen-nitrogen gas mixture. At the surface the amplitude of the electrically elicited H response was matched to that of the mechanically elicited Achilles tendon reflex (ATR), but at depth these amplitudes became significantly different. In every subject the amplitude of the ATR, which depends upon the excitability of both muscle spindles and the alpha motoneurons, was reduced on an average of 38% (with a range of 12-75%). The H response bypasses the muscle spindles and hence, depends primarily upon alpha motoneuron excitability. Its amplitude was unaltered in four, reduced in three, and increased in three subjects. Since the ATR was always depressed despite the direction of change in the H response, we have concluded that an increase in ambient pressure (i.e., pressure per se, or nitrogen, or both) must have decreased the responsiveness of muscle spindles to the tendon tap via a reduction in fusimotor activity.
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