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Aghedo AM, Bowman KW, Worden HM, Kulawik SS, Shindell DT, Lamarque JF, Faluvegi G, Parrington M, Jones DBA, Rast S. The vertical distribution of ozone instantaneous radiative forcing from satellite and chemistry climate models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Struthers H, Scinocca J, Plummer DA, Akiyoshi H, Baumgaertner AJG, Bekki S, Bodeker GE, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Kubin A, Lamarque JF, Langematz U, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Yamashita Y. Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Scinocca J, Plummer D, Oman L, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Frith S, Garcia RR, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Kinnison D, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Pawson S, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Teyssèdre H, Wilson RJ, Yamashita Y. Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Hegglin MI, Gettelman A, Hoor P, Krichevsky R, Manney GL, Pan LL, Son SW, Stiller G, Tilmes S, Walker KA, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Añel JA, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Gettelman A, Hegglin MI, Son SW, Kim J, Fujiwara M, Birner T, Kremser S, Rex M, Añel JA, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesike P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca J, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Son SW, Gerber EP, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett NP, Seo KH, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Garcia R, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Morgenstern O, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 248] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kinnison DE, Brasseur GP, Walters S, Garcia RR, Marsh DR, Sassi F, Harvey VL, Randall CE, Emmons L, Lamarque JF, Hess P, Orlando JJ, Tie XX, Randel W, Pan LL, Gettelman A, Granier C, Diehl T, Niemeier U, Simmons AJ. Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 351] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Dentener F, Stevenson D, Ellingsen K, Van Noije T, Schultz M, Amann M, Atherton C, Bell N, Bergmann D, Bey I, Bouwman L, Butler T, Cofala J, Collins B, Drevet J, Doherty R, Eickhout B, Eskes H, Fiore A, Gauss M, Hauglustaine D, Horowitz L, Isaksen ISA, Josse B, Lawrence M, Krol M, Lamarque JF, Montanaro V, Müller JF, Peuch VH, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rast S, Rodriguez I, Sanderson M, Savage NH, Shindell D, Strahan S, Szopa S, Sudo K, Van Dingenen R, Wild O, Zeng G. The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. Environ Sci Technol 2006; 40:3586-94. [PMID: 16786698 DOI: 10.1021/es0523845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/-1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2) yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Dentener
- Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, via E. Fermi 1, 1-21020, Ispra, Italy.
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