Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes

The ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) brings carbon- and nutrient-rich deep waters to the surface around Antarctica. Limited by light and dissolved iron, photosynthetic microbes incompletely consume these nutrients, the extent of which governs the escape of inorganic carbon into the atmosphere. Changes in MOC upwelling may have regulated Southern Ocean outgassing, resulting in glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 oscillations. However, numerical models that explore this positive relationship do not typically include a feedback between biological activity and abundance of organic chelating ligands that control dissolved iron availability. Here, I show that incorporating a dynamic ligand parameterization inverts the modelled MOC-atmospheric CO2 relationship: reduced MOC nutrient upwelling decreases biological activity, resulting in scant ligand production, enhanced iron limitation, incomplete nutrient usage, and ocean carbon outgassing, and vice versa. This first-order response suggests iron cycle feedbacks may be a critical driver of the ocean's response to climate changes, independent of external iron supply.

Atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and associated nutrients over the Equatorial Indian Ocean

Aerosols are potential supplier of nutrients to the surface water of oceans and can impact biogeochemical processes particularly in the remote locations. The nutrient data from atmospheric supply is poorly reported from the Indian Ocean region. In this study, we present atmospheric nutrients such as reactive nitrogen species (Nitrate, Ammonium, Organic nitrogen), micro-nutrients (e.g. Fe, Mn and Cu) concentration along with mineral dust in the aerosol samples collected over meridional transect during summer (April-May 2018) and monsoon (June-July 2019) months. A significant spatial variation of dust was observed during summer (0.6-22.8 μg m-3) and monsoon (2.8-25.1 μg m-3) months with a decreasing trend from north to south. Dust as well as other nutrient species shows a general north to south decreasing trend, however, no such trend was seen in the soluble trace elements (TEs) concentration. Anthropogenic species like NH4+ and nss-K+ were found below detection limit during monsoon campaign. The fractional solubility (in percentage) of Fe, Mn and Cu were estimated by measuring their concentration in ultrapure water leach which averaged around 0.99 ± 1.12, 31.0 ± 14.9 and 31.1 ± 25.4, respectively during summer and 0.09 ± 0.08, 6.0 ± 8.9, 16.7 ± 9.6, respectively, during monsoon period. Correlation of soluble Fe with total Fe and total acidic species suggest varying dust sources is an important controlling factor for the fraction solubility of Fe with negligible contribution from the chemical processing. However, a significant correlation was observed between total acid and fractional solubility of Mn and Cu suggest role of chemical processing in enhancement of their solubility. Dry deposition flux of aeolian dust was estimated for both campaign using Al concentration and relatively higher fluxes were observed for summer (12.6 ± 8.4 mg·m-2·d-1) and monsoon (8.7 ± 8.4 mg·m-2·d-1) months as compared to model based estimates reported in the literature. Contrastingly, estimated deposition flux of soluble Fe from both campaign displays relatively lower values as compared to model based results which underscores a need for re-evaluation of biogeochemical models with real-time data.

Dust emission response to precipitation and temperature anomalies under different climatic conditions

The dust-drought nexus has received more attention in recent years, particularly in light of global warming. This study aims to better understand the interacting role of temperature and precipitation climatology on global dust emission. Simulated global arid regions' dust emissions from 11 CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) (65 years from 1950 to 2014) and MERRA2 reanalysis (41 years from 1980 to 2020) are analyzed. We calculate dust emission sensitivity to precipitation and temperature using multiple linear regression with near-surface (10 m) wind speed, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature as predictors. The results show that simulated dust emission from most models is significantly correlated with precipitation and temperature over large arid dust source regions. All ESMs show both positive and negative dust emission sensitivity to precipitation (β_P) and temperature (β_T). The climatological mean state affects the strength of the relationships. The precipitation sensitivity is larger over the cold regions while the temperature sensitivity is larger in wet regions. The precipitation sensitivity symmetrically increases with latitude due to the variability of temperature with latitude. Future changes to mean temperature and precipitation have competing effects on dust emission and are likely to alter the hemispheric balance of atmospheric dust.

Greenland Ice Core Record of Last Glacial Dust Sources and Atmospheric Circulation

Abrupt and large-scale climate changes have occurred repeatedly and within decades during the last glaciation. These events, where dramatic warming occurs over decades, are well represented in both Greenland ice core mineral dust and temperature records, suggesting a causal link. However, the feedbacks between atmospheric dust and climate change during these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are poorly known and the processes driving changes in atmospheric dust emission and transport remain elusive. Constraining dust provenance is key to resolving these gaps. Here, we present a multi-technique analysis of Greenland dust provenance using novel and established, source diagnostic isotopic tracers as well as results from a regional climate model including dust cycle simulations. We show that the existing dominant model for the provenance of Greenland dust as sourced from combined East Asian dust and Pacific volcanics is not supported. Rather, our clay mineralogical and Hf-Sr-Nd and D/H isotopic analyses from last glacial Greenland dust and an extensive range of Northern Hemisphere potential dust sources reveal three most likely scenarios (in order of probability): direct dust sourcing from the Taklimakan Desert in western China, direct sourcing from European glacial sources, or a mix of dust originating from Europe and North Africa. Furthermore, our regional climate modeling demonstrates the plausibility of European or mixed European/North African sources for the first time. We suggest that the origin of dust to Greenland is potentially more complex than previously recognized, demonstrating more uncertainty in our understanding dust climate feedbacks during abrupt events than previously understood.

Improved Parameterization for the Size Distribution of Emitted Dust Aerosols Reduces Model Underestimation of Super Coarse Dust

Aircraft measurement campaigns have revealed that super coarse dust (diameter >10 μm) surprisingly accounts for approximately a quarter of aerosols by mass in the atmosphere. However, most global aerosol models either underestimate or do not include super coarse dust abundance. To address this problem, we use brittle fragmentation theory to develop a parameterization for the emitted dust size distribution that includes emission of super coarse dust. We implement this parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and find that it brings the model in good agreement with aircraft measurements of super coarse dust close to dust source regions. However, the CESM still underestimates super coarse dust in dust outflow regions. Thus, we conclude that the model underestimation of super coarse atmospheric dust is in part due to the underestimation of super coarse dust emission and likely in part due to errors in deposition processes.

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Development and Evaluation of Chemistry-Aerosol-Climate Model CAM5-Chem-MAM7-MOSAIC: Global Atmospheric Distribution and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

An advanced aerosol treatment, with a focus on semivolatile nitrate formation, is introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with interactive chemistry (CAM5-chem) by coupling the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) with the 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7). An important feature of MOSAIC is dynamic partitioning of all condensable gases to the different fine and coarse mode aerosols, as governed by mode-resolved thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Applied in the free-running mode from 1995 to 2005 with prescribed historical climatological conditions, the model simulates global distributions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in good agreement with observations and previous studies. Inclusion of nitrate resulted in ∼10% higher global average accumulation mode number concentrations, indicating enhanced growth of Aitken mode aerosols from nitrate formation. While the simulated accumulation mode nitrate burdens are high over the anthropogenic source regions, the sea-salt and dust modes respectively constitute about 74% and 17% of the annual global average nitrate burden. Regional clear-sky shortwave radiative cooling of up to -5 W m-2 due to nitrate is seen, with a much smaller global average cooling of -0.05 W m-2. Significant enhancements in regional cloud condensation nuclei (at 0.1% supersaturation) and cloud droplet number concentrations are also attributed to nitrate, causing an additional global average shortwave cooling of -0.8 W m-2. Taking into consideration of changes in both longwave and shortwave radiation under all-sky conditions, the net change in the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes induced by including nitrate aerosol is -0.7 W m-2.

Bioavailable Strontium, Human Paleogeography, and Migrations in the Southern Andes: A Machine Learning and GIS Approach

The Andes are a unique geological and biogeographic feature of South America. From the perspective of human geography, this mountain range provides ready access to highly diverse altitudinally arranged ecosystems. The combination of a geologically and ecologically diverse landscape provides an exceptional context to explore the potential of strontium isotopes to track the movements of people and the conveyance of material culture. Here we develop an isotopic landscape of bioavailable strontium (87Sr/86Sr) that is applied to reconstruct human paleogeography across time in the southern Andes of Argentina and Chile (31°–34°S). These results come from a macro-regional sampling of rodents (N = 65) and plants (N = 26) from modern and archeological contexts. This “Southern Andean Strontium Transect” extends over 350 km across the Andes, encompassing the main geological provinces between the Pacific coast (Chile) and the eastern lowlands (Argentina). We follow a recently developed approach to isoscape construction based on Random Forest regression and GIS analysis. Our results suggest that bioavailable strontium is tightly linked with bedrock geology and offers a highly resolved proxy to track human paleogeography involving the levels of territories or daily mobility and anomalous events that disrupt home ranges, such as migration. The southern Andes provide an ideal geological setting to develop this approach, since the geological variation in rock age and composition produces distinctive isotopic signatures for each main biogeographical region. Finally, we apply this framework to a set of results from human remains from the Uspallata Valley in Mendoza (Argentina), to assess the incidence of migration in the key period of the consolidation of agropastoral economies between AD 800 and 1400. The application of the isoscape to the values from human remains confirms the persistence of human groups with relatively restricted territories encompassing Uspallata and the adjacent Precordillera between AD 800 and 1500. We also identify a pulse of human migration between AD 1280 and 1420, shortly preceding the Inka conquest. Looking forward, we expect to converge with ongoing efforts in South America to build a continental research framework to track the movement of people, animals, and artifacts across space and time.

Air Quality Degradation by Mineral Dust over Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai Chinese Megacities

Air pollution in Chinese megacities has reached extremely hazardous levels, and human activities are responsible for the emission or production of large amounts of particulate matter (PM). In addition to PM from anthropogenic sources, natural phenomena, such as dust storms over Asian deserts, may also emit large amounts of PM, which lead episodically to poor air quality over Chinese megacities. In this paper, we quantify the degradation of air quality by dust over Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai megacities using the three dimensions (3D) chemistry transport model CHIMERE, which simulates dust emission and transport online. In the first part of our work, we evaluate dust emissions using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, respectively, in the visible and the thermal infrared over source areas. PM simulations were also evaluated compared to surface monitoring stations. Then, mineral dust emissions and their impacts on particle composition of several Chinese megacities were analyzed. Dust emissions and transport over China were simulated during three years (2011, 2013 and 2015). Annual dust contributions to the PM 10 budget over Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai were evaluated respectively as 6.6%, 9.5% and 9.3%. Dust outbreaks largely contribute to poor air quality events during springtime. Indeed it was found that dust significantly contribute for 22%, 52% and 43% of spring PM 10 events (for Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai respectively).

Glacial-Interglacial Precipitation Changes

Glacial-interglacial cycles have constituted a primary mode of climate variability over the last 2.6 million years of Earth's history. While glacial periods cannot be seen simply as a reverse analogue of future warming, they offer an opportunity to test our understanding of the response of precipitation patterns to a much wider range of conditions than we have been able to directly observe. This review explores key features of precipitation patterns associated with glacial climates, which include drying in large regions of the tropics and wetter conditions in substantial parts of the subtropics and midlatitudes. I describe the evidence for these changes and examine the potential causes of hydrological changes during glacial periods. Central themes that emerge include the importance of atmospheric circulation changes in determining glacial-interglacial precipitation changes at the regional scale, the need to take into account climatic factors beyond local precipitation amount when interpreting proxy data, and the role of glacial conditions in suppressing the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems.

Urban Health Related Air Quality Indicators over the Middle East and North Africa Countries Using Multiple Satellites and AERONET Data

Air pollution is reported as one of the most severe environmental problems in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Remotely sensed data from newly available TROPOMI - TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument on board Sentinel-5 Precursor, shows an annual mean of high-resolution maps of selected air quality indicators (NO2, CO, O3, and UVAI) of the MENA countries for the first time. The correlation analysis among the aforementioned indicators show the coherency of the air pollutants in urban areas. Multi-year data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations from nine MENA countries are utilized here to study the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) with other available observations. Additionally, a total of 65 different machine learning models of four categories, namely: linear regression, ensemble, decision tree, and deep neural network (DNN), were built from multiple data sources (MODIS, MISR, OMI, and MERRA-2) to predict the best usable AOD product as compared to AERONET data. DNN validates well against AERONET data and proves to be the best model to generate optimized aerosol products when the ground observations are insufficient. This approach can improve the knowledge of air pollutant variability and intensity in the MENA region for decision makers to operate proper mitigation strategies.

Studying the Impact on Urban Health over the Greater Delta Region in Egypt Due to Aerosol Variability Using Optical Characteristics from Satellite Observations and Ground-Based AERONET Measurements

This research addresses the aerosol characteristics and variability over Cairo and the Greater Delta region over the last 20 years using an integrative multi-sensor approach of remotely sensed and PM10 ground data. The accuracy of these satellite aerosol products is also evaluated and compared through cross-validation against ground observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) project measured at local stations. The results show the validity of using Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra and Aqua platforms for quantitative aerosol optical depth (AOD) assessment as compared to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), and POLarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances (POLDER). In addition, extracted MISR-based aerosol products have been proven to be quite effective in investigating the characteristics of mixed aerosols. Daily AERONET AOD observations were collected and classified using K-means unsupervised machine learning algorithms, showing five typical patterns of aerosols in the region under investigation. Four seasonal aerosol emerging episodes are identified and analyzed using multiple indicators, including aerosol optical depth (AOD), size distribution, single scattering albedo (SSA), and Ångström exponent (AE). The movements and detailed aerosol composition of the aforementioned episodes are demonstrated using NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) back trajectories model in collaboration with aerosol subtype products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission. These episodes indicate that during the spring, fall, and summer, most of the severe aerosol events are caused by dust or mixed related scenarios, whereas during winter, aerosols of finer size lead to severe heavy conditions. It also demonstrates the impacts of different aerosol sources on urban human health, which are presented by the variations of multiple parameters, including solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and UV exposure. Scarce ground PM10 data were collected and compared against satellite products, yet owed to their discrete nature of availability, our approach made use of the Random Decision Forest (RDF) model to convert satellite-based AOD and other meteorological parameters to predict PM10. The RDF model with inputs from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) datasets improves the performance of using AOD products to estimate PM10 values. The connection between climate variability and aerosol intensity, as well as their impact on health-related PM2.5 over Egypt is also demonstrated.

Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2

A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.

Modeling Dust Direct Radiative Feedbacks in East Asia During the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, using the fourth version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) with a bulk aerosol model parameterization (BAM) for dust size distribution (CAM4-BAM), East Asian dust and its direct radiative feedbacks (DRF) during the Last Glacial Maximum are analyzed by intercomparing results between the experiments with (Active) and without (Passive) the DRF. This CAM4-BAM captures the expected characteristics that the dust aerosol optical depth and loading over East Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were significantly greater compared to the current climate. A comparative analysis of the Active and Passive experiments reveals that consideration of the dust–radiation interaction can significantly reduce dust emissions and then weaken the whole dust cycle, including loading, transport, and dry and wet depositions over East Asia. Further analysis of the dust–radiation feedback shows that the DRF decreases surface sensible heat, mainly owing to the negative surface forcing induced by dust with a value of −11.8 W m−2. The decreased surface sensible heat weakens the turbulent energy within the planetary boundary layer and the surface wind speed, and then reduces the regional dust emissions. This process creates a negative DRF–emission feedback loop to affect the dust cycle during the LGM. Further analysis reveals that the dust emissions in the LGM over East Asia were more reduced, with amounts of −77.2 Tg season−1 by the negative DRF–emission feedback, compared to the current climate with −6.8 Tg season−1. The two ratios of this reduction to their emissions are close to −10.7% for the LGM and −7.5% for the current climate.

Greenland records of aerosol source and atmospheric lifetime changes from the Eemian to the Holocene

The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic changes during the last glacial, featuring vast ice sheets and abrupt climate events, while high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today. Here we use high-resolution aerosol records from the Greenland NEEM ice core to reconstruct the environmental alterations in aerosol source regions accompanying these changes. Separating source and transport effects, we find strongly reduced terrestrial biogenic emissions during glacial times reflecting net loss of vegetated area in North America. Rapid climate changes during the glacial have little effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. A strong increase in terrestrial dust emissions during the coldest intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in East Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions in the North Atlantic region increase only moderately (50%), likely due to sea ice expansion. Lower aerosol concentrations in Eemian ice compared to the Holocene are mainly due to shortened atmospheric residence time, while emissions changed little.

Past climate changes in Greenland ice were accompanied by large aerosol concentration changes. Here, the authors show that by correcting for transport effects, reliable source changes for biogenic aerosol from North America, sea salt aerosol from the North Atlantic, and dust from East Asian deserts can be derived.

A Possible Role of Dust in Resolving the Holocene Temperature Conundrum

Climate models generally fail to produce a warmer (by as much as 0.5 °C) early to mid-Holocene than the pre-industrial in the global annual temperature, which has been termed the Holocene temperature conundrum. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to test whether the conundrum can be partially resolved by considering the fact that atmospheric dust loading was much reduced during the early to mid-Holocene. Our experiments show that the global annual mean surface temperature increases by 0.30 °C and 0.23 °C for the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and early Holocene (9 ka), respectively, if the dust is completely removed. The temperature increase scales almost linearly with the fraction of dust being removed, with the 50% dust reduction experiment for the 6 ka being the only one deviating from the linear trend. The indirect effect of dust, which is highly uncertain and is not included in the model, may further enhance the warming. Therefore, the neglect of dust reduction in the Holocene in climate models could contribute significantly to the model-data discrepancy, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sensitivity of Landsat 8 Surface Temperature Estimates to Atmospheric Profile Data: A Study Using MODTRAN in Dryland Irrigated Systems

The land surface temperature (LST) represents a critical element in efforts to characterize global surface energy and water fluxes, as well as being an essential climate variable in its own right. Current satellite platforms provide a range of spatial and temporal resolution radiance data from which LST can be determined. One of the most complete records of data comes via the Landsat series of satellites, which provide a continuous sequence that extends back to 1982. However, for much of this time, Landsat thermal data were provided through a single broadband thermal channel, making surface temperature retrieval challenging. To fully exploit the valuable time-series of thermal information that is available from these satellites requires efforts to better describe and understand the accuracy of temperature retrievals. Here, we contribute to these efforts by examining the impact of atmospheric correction on the estimation of LST, using atmospheric profiles derived from a range of in-situ, reanalysis, and satellite data. Radiance data from the thermal infrared (TIR) sensor onboard Landsat 8 was converted to LST by using the MODTRAN version 5.2 radiative transfer model, allowing the production of an LST time series based upon 28 Landsat overpasses. LST retrievals were then evaluated against in-situ thermal measurements collected over an arid zone farmland comprising both bare soil and vegetated surface types. Atmospheric profiles derived from AIRS, MOD07, ECMWF, NCEP, and balloon-based radiosonde data were used to drive the MODTRAN simulations. In addition to examining the direct impact of using various profile data on LST retrievals, randomly distributed errors were introduced into a range of forcing variables to better understand retrieval uncertainty. Results indicated differences in LST of up to 1 K for perturbations in emissivity and profile measurements, with the analysis also highlighting the challenges in modeling aerosol optical depth (AOD) over arid lands and its impact on the TIR bands. Days with high AOD content (AOD > 0.5) in the evaluation study seem to consistently underestimate in-situ LSTs by 1–2 K, suggesting that MODTRAN is unable to accurately simulate the aerosol conditions for the TIR bands. Comparisons between available in-situ and Landsat 8 derived LST illustrate a range of seasonal and land surface dynamics and provide an assessment of retrieval accuracy throughout the nine-month long study period. In terms of the choice of atmospheric profile, when excluding the in-situ data, results show a mean absolute range of between 1.2 K to 1.8 K over bare soil and 3.3 K to 3.8 K over alfalfa for the different meteorological forcing, with the AIRS profile providing the best reproduction over the studied arid land irrigation region.

Quantifying trace element and isotope fluxes at the ocean-sediment boundary: a review

Quantifying fluxes of trace elements and their isotopes (TEIs) at the ocean's sediment-water boundary is a pre-eminent challenge to understand their role in the present, past and future ocean. There are multiple processes that drive the uptake and release of TEIs, and properties that determine their rates are unevenly distributed (e.g. sediment composition, redox conditions and (bio)physical dynamics). These factors complicate our efforts to find, measure and extrapolate TEI fluxes across ocean basins. GEOTRACES observations are unveiling the oceanic distributions of many TEIs for the first time. These data evidence the influence of the sediment-water boundary on many TEI cycles, and underline the fact that our knowledge of the source-sink fluxes that sustain oceanic distributions is largely missing. Present flux measurements provide low spatial coverage and only part of the empirical basis needed to predict TEI flux variations. Many of the advances and present challenges facing TEI flux measurements are linked to process studies that collect sediment cores, pore waters, sinking material or seawater in close contact with sediments. However, such sampling has not routinely been viable on GEOTRACES expeditions. In this article, we recommend approaches to address these issues: firstly, with an interrogation of emergent data using isotopic mass-balance and inverse modelling techniques; and secondly, by innovating pursuits of direct TEI flux measurements. We exemplify the value of GEOTRACES data with a new inverse model estimate of benthic Al flux in the North Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, we review viable flux measurement techniques tailored to the sediment-water boundary. We propose that such activities are aimed at regions that intersect the GEOTRACES Science Plan on the basis of seven criteria that may influence TEI fluxes: sediment provenance, composition, organic carbon supply, redox conditions, sedimentation rate, bathymetry and the benthic nepheloid inventory.This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

Local versus basin-scale limitation of marine nitrogen fixation

Nitrogen (N) fixation by diazotrophic plankton is the primary source of this crucial nutrient to the ocean, but the factors limiting its rate and distribution are controversial. According to one view, the ecological niche of diazotrophs is primarily controlled by the ocean through internally generated N deficits that suppress the growth of their competitors. A second view posits an overriding limit from the atmosphere, which restricts diazotrophs to regions where dust deposition satisfies their high iron (Fe) requirement, thus separating N sources from sinks at a global scale. Here we use multiple geochemical signatures of N2 fixation to show that the Fe limitation of diazotrophs is strong enough to modulate the regional distribution of N2 fixation within ocean basins--particularly the Fe-poor Pacific--but not strong enough to influence its partition between basins, which is instead governed by rates of N loss. This scale-dependent limitation of N2 fixation reconciles local observations of Fe stress in diazotroph communities with an inferred spatial coupling of N sources and sinks. Within this regime of intermediate Fe control, the oceanic N reservoir would respond only weakly to enhanced dust fluxes during glacial climates, but strongly to the reduced fluxes hypothesized under anthropogenic climate warming.

A 1400-year terrigenous dust record on a coral island in South China Sea

We present analyses of a lacustrine sediment core (DY6) on Dongdao Island, which provides high-resolution paleoclimate records for the South China Sea (SCS). Results of element analyses indicate that the concentrations of Ti and Al in DY6 are much higher than the background on the island. Morphological characteristics of acidic insoluble particles are similar to aeolian in East China. Sr and Nd isotope compositions in these particles are consistent with those in Asian aeolian dust. We inferred that dust in DY6 may have been transported by East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) from inland Asia. The continuous dust records for the past 1400 years in North SCS were presented based on the measured Ti flux, which revealed an opposite trend to the variations in the EAWM for the past 50 years. A comparison of wind fields between cold and warm years shows that north surface wind in southeast China was stronger in cold years. However, 850 hPa wind vector along the east coast of China, the key level of wind for long-distance dust transmission, weakened in cold years. We conclude that differences in the EAWM records can be attributed to the 850 hPa wind pattern in different areas.

Iron fertilization of the Subantarctic ocean during the last ice age

John H. Martin, who discovered widespread iron limitation of ocean productivity, proposed that dust-borne iron fertilization of Southern Ocean phytoplankton caused the ice age reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). In a sediment core from the Subantarctic Atlantic, we measured foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes to reconstruct ice age nitrate consumption, burial fluxes of iron, and proxies for productivity. Peak glacial times and millennial cold events are characterized by increases in dust flux, productivity, and the degree of nitrate consumption; this combination is uniquely consistent with Subantarctic iron fertilization. The associated strengthening of the Southern Ocean's biological pump can explain the lowering of CO2 at the transition from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions as well as the millennial-scale CO2 oscillations.

Increased dust deposition in the Pacific Southern Ocean during glacial periods

Dust deposition in the Southern Ocean constitutes a critical modulator of past global climate variability, but how it has varied temporally and geographically is underdetermined. Here, we present data sets of glacial-interglacial dust-supply cycles from the largest Southern Ocean sector, the polar South Pacific, indicating three times higher dust deposition during glacial periods than during interglacials for the past million years. Although the most likely dust source for the South Pacific is Australia and New Zealand, the glacial-interglacial pattern and timing of lithogenic sediment deposition is similar to dust records from Antarctica and the South Atlantic dominated by Patagonian sources. These similarities imply large-scale common climate forcings, such as latitudinal shifts of the southern westerlies and regionally enhanced glaciogenic dust mobilization in New Zealand and Patagonia.

Feedbacks in human-landscape systems

This article identifies key questions and challenges for geomorphologists in investigating coupled feedbacks in human-landscape systems. While feedbacks occur in the absence of human influences, they are also altered by human activity. Feedbacks are a key element to understanding human-influenced geomorphic systems in ways that extend our traditional approach of considering humans as unidirectional drivers of change. Feedbacks have been increasingly identified in Earth-environmental systems, with studies of coupled human-natural systems emphasizing ecological phenomena in producing emerging concepts for social-ecological systems. Enormous gaps or uncertainties in knowledge remain with respect to understanding impact-feedback loops within geomorphic systems with significant human alterations, where the impacted geomorphic systems in turn affect humans. Geomorphology should play an important role in public policy by identifying the many diffuse and subtle feedbacks of both local- and global-scale processes. This role is urgent, while time may still be available to mitigate the impacts that limit the sustainability of human societies. Challenges for geomorphology include identification of the often weak feedbacks that occur over varied time and space scales ranging from geologic time to single isolated events and very short time periods, the lack of available data linking impact with response, the identification of multiple thresholds that trigger feedback mechanisms, the varied tools and metrics needed to represent both physical and human processes, and the need to collaborate with social scientists with expertise in the human causes of geomorphic change, as well as the human responses to such change.

Oceanic nitrogen reservoir regulated by plankton diversity and ocean circulation

The average nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio of marine phytoplankton (16N:1P) is closely matched to the nutrient content of mean ocean waters (14.3N:1P). This condition is thought to arise from biological control over the ocean's nitrogen budget, in which removal of bioavailable nitrogen by denitrifying bacteria ensures widespread selection for diazotrophic phytoplankton that replenish this essential nutrient when it limits the growth of other species. Here we show that in the context of a realistic ocean circulation model, and a uniform N:P ratio of plankton biomass, this feedback mechanism yields an oceanic nitrate deficit more than double its observed value. The critical missing phenomenon is diversity in the metabolic N:P requirement of phytoplankton, which has recently been shown to exhibit large-scale patterns associated with species composition. When we model these variations, such that diazotrophs compete with high N:P communities in subtropical regions, the ocean nitrogen inventory rises and may even exceed the average N:P ratio of plankton. The latter condition, previously considered impossible, is prevented in the modern ocean by shallow circulations that communicate stoichiometric signals from remote biomes dominated by diatoms with low N:P ratios. Large-scale patterns of plankton diversity and the circulation pathways connecting them are thus key factors determining the availability of fixed nitrogen in the ocean.

Comment on "Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum"

Schmittner et al. (Reports, 9 December 2011, p. 1385) report a new, low estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on a comparison of Last Glacial Maximum climate model simulations and paleoproxy data. Here, we show that exclusion of questionable comparison points and constructive changes to model design are both likely capable of altering the most probable value of equilibrium climate sensitivity suggested in Schmittner et al.

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

High-latitude dust over the North Atlantic: inputs from Icelandic proglacial dust storms

Mineral aerosols play an important role in the atmosphere-ocean climate system. Research has focused almost exclusively on sources in low-latitude arid regions, but here we show that there are substantial sources in cold, higher latitudes. A 6-year record of measurements made on Heimaey, an island south of Iceland, reveals frequent dust events with concentrations exceeding 20 micrograms per cubic meter. Much of this potentially iron-rich dust is transported southward and deposited in the North Atlantic. Emissions are highest in spring and spatially and temporally associated with active glacial outwash plains; large dust events appear to be associated with glacial outburst floods. In response to global warming, ice retreat on Iceland and in other glacierized areas is likely to increase dust emissions from these regions.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

Dust storms: recent developments

Dust storms have a number of impacts upon the environment including radiative forcing, and biogeochemical cycling. They transport material over many thousands of kilometres. They also have a range of impacts on humans, not least on human health. In recent years the identification of source areas for dust storms has been an important area or research, with the Sahara (especially Bodélé) and western China being recognised as the strongest sources globally. Another major development has been the recognition of the degree to which dust storm activity has varied at a range of time scales, millennial, century, decadal, annual and seasonal.

Atmospheric iron deposition: global distribution, variability, and human perturbations

Atmospheric inputs of iron to the open ocean are hypothesized to modulate ocean biogeochemistry. This review presents an integration of available observations of atmospheric iron and iron deposition, and also covers bioavailable iron distributions. Methods for estimating temporal variability in ocean deposition over the recent past are reviewed. Desert dust iron is estimated to represent 95% of the global atmospheric iron cycle, and combustion sources of iron are responsible for the remaining 5%. Humans may be significantly perturbing desert dust (up to 50%). The sources of bioavailable iron are less well understood than those of iron, partly because we do not know what speciation of the iron is bioavailable. Bioavailable iron can derive from atmospheric processing of relatively insoluble desert dust iron or from direct emissions of soluble iron from combustion sources. These results imply that humans could be substantially impacting iron and bioavailable iron deposition to ocean regions, but there are large uncertainties in our understanding.

Covariant glacial-interglacial dust fluxes in the equatorial Pacific and Antarctica

Dust plays a critical role in Earth's climate system and serves as a natural source of iron and other micronutrients to remote regions of the ocean. We have generated records of dust deposition over the past 500,000 years at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial Pacific dust fluxes are highly correlated with global ice volume and with dust fluxes to Antarctica, which suggests that dust generation in interhemispheric source regions exhibited a common response to climate change over late-Pleistocene glacial cycles. Our results provide quantitative constraints on the variability of aeolian iron supply to the equatorial Pacific Ocean and, more generally, on the potential contribution of dust to past climate change and to related changes in biogeochemical cycles.