Global climate-driven sea surface temperature and chlorophyll dynamics

Herein we study long-term changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) in order to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the global marine ecosystems. Our approach is to analyze multi-model ensemble-means from global numerical-simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A 250-year span consisting of the 1850-2014 historical period and the 2015-2099 climate-change projection was considered, where the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2.45 and 5.85 were selected as the projected climate-change scenarios. In the historical period, global linear trends show an SST increasing at 0.0024 °C year-1 and a CHL decreasing at -2.35x10-5 mg m-3 year-1, but by the last years (1985-2014) these changes become more abrupt: SST rising at 0.0146 °C year-1 and CHL declining at -1.49x10-4 mg m-3 year-1. During the intense climate-change scenario (SSP-5.85), SST increases at 0.0341 °C year-1 and CHL decreases at -0.0002 mg m-3 year-1, but in the last years (2070-2099) the warming is stronger (0.045 °C year-1) and the CHL decline is weaker (-0.0001 mg m-3 year-1). Additionally, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and dual Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) analyses on the model-data ensembles show: 1) significant correlations between SST and CHL patterns and climate teleconnection indices, 2) contracting polar and high latitude seascapes, 3) rising SST range (both high and low temperatures), 4) declining CHL in warming tropical seascapes, and 5) global expansion of low CHL levels. On the other hand, recent (2022-2023) global observed-SST anomalies mirror end-of-century projections, with extreme anomalies in tropical and subtropical regions and significant changes in near-polar regions. Thus, our findings emphasize the need to curb fossil fuel emissions in order to avoid irreparable consequences for the marine environment.

Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia in the coastal ocean off the United States Pacific Northwest

The 2021 summer upwelling season off the United States Pacific Northwest coast was unusually strong leading to widespread near-bottom, low-oxygen waters. During summer 2021, an unprecedented number of ship- and underwater glider-based measurements of dissolved oxygen were made in this region. Near-bottom hypoxia, that is dissolved oxygen less than 61 µmol kg-1 and harmful to marine animals, was observed over nearly half of the continental shelf inshore of the 200-m isobath, covering 15,500 square kilometers. A mid-shelf ribbon with near-bottom, dissolved oxygen less than 50 µmol kg-1 extended for 450 km off north-central Oregon and Washington. Spatial patterns in near-bottom oxygen are related to the continental shelf width and other features of the region. Maps of near-bottom oxygen since 1950 show a consistent trend toward lower oxygen levels over time. The fraction of near-bottom water inshore of the 200-m isobath that is hypoxic on average during the summer upwelling season increases over time from nearly absent (2%) in 1950-1980, to 24% in 2009-2018, compared with 56% during the anomalously strong upwelling conditions in 2021. Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia is consistent with increased upwelling-favorable wind forcing under climate change.

Population structure in a continuously distributed coastal marine species, the harbor porpoise, based on microhaplotypes derived from poor-quality samples

Harbor porpoise in the North Pacific are found in coastal waters from southern California to Japan, but population structure is poorly known outside of a few local areas. We used multiplexed amplicon sequencing of 292 loci and genotyped clusters of single nucleotide polymoirphisms as microhaplotypes (N = 271 samples) in addition to mitochondrial (mtDNA) sequence data (N = 413 samples) to examine the genetic structure from samples collected along the Pacific coast and inland waterways from California to southern British Columbia. We confirmed an overall pattern of strong isolation-by-distance, suggesting that individual dispersal is restricted. We also found evidence of regions where genetic differences are larger than expected based on geographical distance alone, implying current or historical barriers to gene flow. In particular, the southernmost population in California is genetically distinct (F_ST  = 0.02 [microhaplotypes]; 0.31 [mtDNA]), with both reduced genetic variability and high frequency of an otherwise rare mtDNA haplotype. At the northern end of our study range, we found significant genetic differentiation of samples from the Strait of Georgia, previously identified as a potential biogeographical boundary or secondary contact zone between harbor porpoise populations. Association of microhaplotypes with remotely sensed environmental variables indicated potential local adaptation, especially at the southern end of the species' range. These results inform conservation and management for this nearshore species, illustrate the value of genomic methods for detecting patterns of genetic structure within a continuously distributed marine species, and highlight the power of microhaplotype genotyping for detecting genetic structure in harbor porpoises despite reliance on poor-quality samples.

Ocean circulation along the southern Chile transition region (38°-46°S): Mean, seasonal and interannual variability, with a focus on 2014-2016

Satellite and atmospheric model fields are used to describe the wind forcing, surface ocean circulation, temperature and chlorophyll-a pigment concentrations along the coast of southern Chile in the transition region between 38° and 46°S. Located inshore of the bifurcation of the eastward South Pacific Current into the equatorward Humboldt and the poleward Cape Horn Currents, the region also includes the Chiloé Inner Sea and the northern extent of the complex system of fjords, islands and canals that stretch south from near 42°S. The high resolution satellite data reveal that equatorward currents next to the coast extend as far south as 48°-51°S in spring-summer. They also display detailed distributions of forcing from wind stress and wind stress curl near the coast and within the Inner Sea. Between 38°-46°S, both winds and surface currents during 1993-2016 change directions seasonally from equatorward during summer upwelling to poleward during winter downwelling, with cooler SST and greater surface chlorophyll-a concentrations next to the coast during upwelling, opposite conditions during downwelling. Over interannual time scales during 1993-2016, there is a strong correlation between equatorial El Niño events and sea level and a moderate correlation with alongshore currents. Looking more closely at the 2014-2016 period, we find a marginal El Niño during 2014 and a strong El Niño during 2015 that connect the region to the tropics through the oceanic pathway, with some atmospheric connections through the phenomenon of atmospheric blocking (as noted by others). The period also includes a Harmful Algal Bloom of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella during early-2016 that occurred during a sequence of physical conditions (winds, currents and temperatures) that would favor such a bloom. The most anomalous physical condition during this specific bloom is an extreme case of atmospheric blocking that creates a long period of calm in austral autumn after strong upwelling in austral summer. The blocking is related to the 2015-2016 El Niño and an unusual coincident positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.

Ecoregional analysis of nearshore sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific

The quantification and description of sea surface temperature (SST) is critically important because it can influence the distribution, migration, and invasion of marine species; furthermore, SSTs are expected to be affected by climate change. To better understand present temperature regimes, we assembled a 29-year nearshore time series of mean monthly SSTs along the North Pacific coastline using remotely-sensed satellite data collected with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument. We then used the dataset to describe nearshore (<20 km offshore) SST patterns of 16 North Pacific ecoregions delineated by the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) hierarchical schema. Annual mean temperature varied from 3.8°C along the Kamchatka ecoregion to 24.8°C in the Cortezian ecoregion. There are smaller annual ranges and less variability in SST in the Northeast Pacific relative to the Northwest Pacific. Within the 16 ecoregions, 31–94% of the variance in SST is explained by the annual cycle, with the annual cycle explaining the least variation in the Northern California ecoregion and the most variation in the Yellow Sea ecoregion. Clustering on mean monthly SSTs of each ecoregion showed a clear break between the ecoregions within the Warm and Cold Temperate provinces of the MEOW schema, though several of the ecoregions contained within the provinces did not show a significant difference in mean seasonal temperature patterns. Comparison of these temperature patterns shared some similarities and differences with previous biogeographic classifications and the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). Finally, we provide a web link to the processed data for use by other researchers.