Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

Impact of aerosol-boundary layer interactions on PM2.5 pollution during cold air pool events in a semi-arid urban basin

Global emission reductions still must address winter fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in urban basins with enclosed terrains and frequent cold air pool (CAP) events when the temperatures within the basin are colder than above it. The effects of urban basin aerosol-boundary layer interactions on PM2.5 pollution during CAP events remain unclear. Intensive boundary layer observations in January 2021 and numerical models were used to investigate this issue in the semi-arid urban Lanzhou Basin of China. The results showed that CAPs formed because of the synoptic weather system that exacerbated the warming over the basin. The CAPs in this experiment were characterized by stronger temperature inversion (TI) layers in the vertical direction and lower relative humidity, lower wind speed, and weaker turbulence at the bottom of the basin compared to other conditions. The strong TI layers below the top of the basin inhibited the vertical dispersion of pollutants in the basin and concentrated the PM2.5 within a height of 0.3 km from the bottom of the basin. During CAP events, the proportion of elemental carbon in PM2.5 increased, whereas that of secondary inorganic species decreased. Aerosol absorption increased faster than scattering during CAP events. Therefore, the mean single scattering albedo decreased from 0.85 during non-CAP periods to 0.81 during CAP events. Radiosonde-sounding observations and numerical simulations indicated that aerosols accumulating in the lower basin heated the atmosphere during the daytime and facilitated boundary layer development via the "stove effect" (absorption aerosol heats lower atmosphere to promote boundary layer development). No significant "dome effect" (absorption aerosol heats the upper boundary layer to suppress boundary layer development) occurred during the two CAP events. These findings provide a theoretical basis for scientifically-guided PM2.5 pollution control in winter in isolated urban basins.

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth's surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d-1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m-2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March-May. A complete phase-out of today's fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

Long-term climatology and spatial trends of absorption, scattering, and total aerosol optical depths over East Africa during 2001-2019

The unprecedented increase in anthropogenic activities, coupled with the prevailing climatic conditions, has increased the aerosol load over East Africa (EA). Given this, the present study examined the trends in total, absorption, scattering, and total aerosol extinction optical depth (TAOD, AAOD, SAOD, and TAEOD) over EA, alongside trends in single scattering albedo (SSA). For this purpose, the AOD of different optical properties retrieved from multiple sensors and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) model between January 2001 to December 2019 were utilized to estimate trends and assess their statistical significance. The spatial patterns of seasonal mean AOD from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and MERRA-2 model were generally characterized with high (>0.35) and low (<0.2) AOD centers over EA observed during the local dry and wet seasons, respectively. Also, the spatial trend analysis revealed a general increase in TAOD, being positive and significant over the arid and semi-arid zones of the northeastern part of EA, which is majorly dominated by locally derived dust. The local dry (wet) months generally experienced positive (negative) trends in TAOD, associated with seasonal cycles of rainfall. High and significant positive trends in AAOD were dominated over the study domain, attributed to an increased amount of biomass burning, variations in soil moisture, and changes in the rainfall pattern. The trends in TAEOD showed a distinct pattern, except over some months that depicted significant increasing trends attributed to changes in climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. At last, the study domain exhibited decreasing trends in SSA, signifying strong absorption of direct solar radiation resulting in a warming effect. The study revealed patterns of trends in aerosol optical properties and forms the basis for further research in aerosols over EA.

Advances in sunphotometer-measured aerosol optical properties and related topics in China: Impetus and perspectives

Aerosol is a critical trace component of the atmosphere. Many processes in the Earth's climate system are intimately related to aerosols via their direct and indirect radiative effects. Aerosol effects are not limited to these climatic aspects, however. They are also closely related to human health, photosynthesis, new energy, etc., which makes aerosol a central focus in many research fields. A fundamental requirement for improving our understanding of the diverse aerosol effects is to accumulate high-quality aerosol data by various measurement techniques. Sunphotometer remote sensing is one of the techniques that has been playing an increasingly important role in characterizing aerosols across the world. Much progress has been made on this aspect in China during the past decade, which is the work reviewed in this paper. Three sunphotometer networks have been established to provide high-quality observations of long-term aerosol optical properties across the country. Using this valuable dataset, our understanding of spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of aerosol optical properties has been much improved. The radiative effects of aerosols both at the bottom and at the top of the atmosphere are comprehensively assessed. Substantial warming of the atmosphere by aerosol absorption is revealed. The long-range transport of dust from the Taklimakan Desert in Northwest China and anthropogenic aerosols from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau is characterized based on ground-based and satellite remote sensing as well as model simulations. Effective methods to estimate chemical compositions from sunphotometer aerosol products are developed. Dozens of satellite and model aerosol products are validated, shedding new light on how to improve these products. These advances improve our understanding of the critical role played by aerosols in both the climate and environment. Finally, a perspective on future research is presented.

Estimating the Columnar Concentrations of Black Carbon Aerosols in China Using MODIS Products

Black carbon (BC), the strongest light-absorbing particle, is believed to play substantial roles in regional air quality and global climate change. In this study, taking advantage of the high quality of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer products, we developed a new algorithm to estimate the BC columnar concentrations over China by simulating the BC and non-BC aerosol mixing states in detail. The results show that our new algorithm produces a reliable estimation of BC aerosols, in which BC columnar concentrations and their related parameters (aerosol absorption and BC surface concentration) show reasonable agreements and low biases compared with ground-based measurements. The uncertainties of BC retrievals are mainly associated with the surface and aerosol assumptions used in the algorithm, ranging from -14 to 44% at higher aerosol optical depth (AOD > 0.5). The proposed algorithm can improve the capability of space-borne aerosol remote sensing by successfully distinguishing BC from other aerosols. The acquired BC columnar concentrations enable the spatial pattern of serious BC aerosol pollution over East China to be characterized, showing that it exhibits higher levels in winter. These nationwide results are beneficial for estimating BC emissions, proposing mitigation strategies for air pollution, and potentially reducing the uncertainties of climate change studies.

Sub-Mode Aerosol Volume Size Distribution and Complex Refractive Index from the Three-Year Ground-Based Measurements in Chengdu China

Chengdu is a typical basin city of Southwest China with rare observations of remote sensing measurements. To assess the climate change and establish a region aerosol model, a deeper understanding of the separated volume size distribution (VSD) and complex refractive index (CRI) is required. In this study, we employed the sub-mode VSD and CRI in Chengdu based on the three years observation data to investigate the sub-mode characteristics and climate effects. The annual average fraction of the fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AODf) is 92%, which has the same monthly tendency as the total AOD. But the coarse-mode aerosol optical depth (AODc) has little variation in different months. There are four distinguishing modes of VSD in Chengdu; the median radii are 0.17 μm ± 0.05, 0.31 μm ± 0.12, 1.62 μm ± 0.45, 3.25 μm ± 0.99, respectively. The multi-year average and seasonal variations of fine- and coarse-mode VSD and CRI are also analyzed to characterize aerosols over this region. The fine-mode single scattering albedos (SSAs) are higher than the coarse-mode ones, which suggests that the coarse-mode aerosols have a stronger absorbing effect on solar light than the small-size aerosol particles in Chengdu.

Analysis and Optical Modeling of Individual Heterogeneous Asian Dust Particles Collected at Mauna Loa Observatory

We have determined optical properties of heterogeneous particles from aerosol samples collected at Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory. Back trajectories, satellite imagery, and composition differences among particles from scanning electron microscopy revealed a subset of particles with dolomite or calcite that likely came from Asia. Using focused ion-beam tomography and the discrete dipole approximation, we show how small amounts of an iron phase (oxide or carbonate), or in one case soot, affected extinction and scattering compared with particles of neat dolomite or calcite. We show how particles exhibit a range scattering values due to varying orientations of the inclusion phases. Extinction efficiencies for the heterogeneous particles with dolomite (3.47) and calcite (3.36) were 19% to 21% lower than extinction for marine background air particles (3.72). Extinction for the Asian dust was, however, generally higher than for the neat particles. Compared to iron carbonate, the presence of an absorbing iron oxide affected scattering in Asian dust particles even at the low oxide concentrations studied here (0.6% to 8.1%). Scattering efficiency decreased by <1% with a 1% increase in hematite but by 2% to 5% with magnetite. Asian dust scattered light strongly forward, but backscattering was 56% larger than for the marine background air particles. Backscattering in the Asian dust was also larger with magnetite than hematite. Single scattering albedo for Asian dust with hematite, magnetite, or soot averaged 0.96 ± 0.06 ( x ¯ ± s , n = 19 ) but was as low as 0.72 with a magnetite mass of 5.8%.

Aerosol and boundary-layer interactions and impact on air quality

Air quality is concerned with pollutants in both the gas phase and solid or liquid phases. The latter are referred to as aerosols, which are multifaceted agents affecting air quality, weather and climate through many mechanisms. Unlike gas pollutants, aerosols interact strongly with meteorological variables with the strongest interactions taking place in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The PBL hosting the bulk of aerosols in the lower atmosphere is affected by aerosol radiative effects. Both aerosol scattering and absorption reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground and thus reduce the sensible heat fluxes that drive the diurnal evolution of the PBL. Moreover, aerosols can increase atmospheric stability by inducing a temperature inversion as a result of both scattering and absorption of solar radiation, which suppresses dispersion of pollutants and leads to further increases in aerosol concentration in the lower PBL. Such positive feedback is especially strong during severe pollution events. Knowledge of the PBL is thus crucial for understanding the interactions between air pollution and meteorology. A key question is how the diurnal evolution of the PBL interacts with aerosols, especially in vertical directions, and affects air quality. We review the major advances in aerosol measurements, PBL processes and their interactions with each other through complex feedback mechanisms, and highlight the priorities for future studies.

Columnar aerosol optical and radiative properties according to season and air mass transport pattern over East Asia

The column-integrated optical and radiative properties of aerosols in the downwind area of East Asia were investigated based on sun/sky radiometer measurements performed from February 2004 to June 2005 at Gwangju (35.23° N, 126.84° E) and Anmyeon (36.54° N, 126.33° E), Korea. The observed aerosol data were analyzed for differences among three seasons: spring (March-May), summer (June-August), and autumn/winter (September-February). The data were also categorized into five types depending on the air mass origin in arriving in the measurement sites: (a) from a northerly direction in spring (S(N)), (b) from a westerly direction in spring (S(W)), (c) cases with a low Ångström exponent (<0.8) in spring (dust), (d) from a northerly direction in autumn/winter (AW(N)), and (e) from a westerly direction during other seasons (AW(W)). The highest Ångström exponents (α) at Gwangju and Anmyeon were 1.43 ± 0.30 and 1.49 ± 0.20, respectively, observed in summer. The lowest column-mean single-scattering albedo (ω) at 440 nm observed at Gwangju and Anmyeon were 0.89 ± 0.02 and 0.88 ± 0.02, respectively, during a period marked by the advection of dust from the Asian continent. The highest ω values at Gwangju and Anmyeon were 0.95 ± 0.02 and 0.96 ± 0.02, respectively, observed in summer. Variations in the aerosol radiative-forcing efficiency (β) were related to the conditions of the air mass origin. The forcing efficiency in summer was -131.7 and -125.6 W m(-2) at the surface in Gwangju and Anmyeon, respectively. These values are lower than those under the atmospheric conditions of spring and autumn/winter. The highest forcing efficiencies in autumn/winter were -214.3 and -255.9 W m(-2) at the surface in Gwangju and Anmyeon, respectively, when the air mass was transported from westerly directions.