Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST-CFS1.0, previously SINTEX-F). The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands, initialized from 1 March. In addition, the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but the individual members show great discrepancies, indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts. Furthermore, the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020, albeit with underestimated magnitudes. The Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km, which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method, display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent. However, the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill, suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

Integrating Remote-Sensing and Assimilation Data to Improve Air Temperature on Hot Weather in East China

Land-surface characteristics (LSCs) and land-soil moisture conditions can modulate energy partition at the land surface, impact near-surface atmosphere conditions, and further affect land–atmosphere interactions. This study investigates the effect of land-surface-characteristic parameters (LSCPs) including albedo, leaf-area index (LAI), and soil moisture (SM) on hot weather by in East China using the numerical model. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were conducted for a hot weather event with a high spatial resolution of 1 km in domain 3 by using ERA-Interim forcing fields on 20 July 2017 until 16:00 UTC on 25 July 2017. The satellite-based albedo and LAI, and assimilation-based soil-moisture data of high temporal–spatial resolution, which are more accurate to match fine weather forecasts and high-resolution simulations, were used to update the default LSCPs. A control simulation with the default LSCPs (WRF_CTL), a main sensitivity simulation with the updated LSCP albedo, LAI and SM (WRF_CHAR), and a series of other sensitivity simulations with one or two updated LSCPs were performed. Results show that WRF_CTL could reproduce the spatial distribution of hot weather, but overestimated air temperature (Ta) and maximal air temperature (Tamax) with a warming bias of 1.05 and 1.32 °C, respectively. However, the WRF_CHAR simulation reduced the warming bias, and improved the simulated Ta and Tamax with reducing relative biases of 33.08% and 29.24%, respectively. Compared to the WRF_CTL, WRF_CHAR presented a negative sensible heat-flux difference, positive latent heat flux, and net radiation difference of the area average. LSCPs modulated the partition of available land-surface energy and then changed the air temperature. On the basis of statistical-correlation analysis, the soil moisture of the top 10 cm is the main factor to improve warming bias on hot weather in East China.

Large-scale rain-fed to paddy farmland conversion modified land-surface thermal properties in Cold China

The recent acute evolution of cropland structure in Cold China could lead to rapid rice paddy expansion, potentially altering land-surface thermal processes and influencing climate. To address the issue, this study investigated the changes in cropland type, land-surface temperature (LST) and heat fluxes in the agricultural region of Cold China during 2000-2015 based on time-series of land-use data and MODIS LST product, using the split-window algorithms (SWA) model and the pixel component arranging and component algorithm (PCACA). The investigation revealed large-scale land transformation from rain-fed farmland to paddy field in Cold China during 2000-2015. Compared to the rain-fed farmland, lower LST was observed in paddy field throughout crop growing seasons, with the highest LST threshold found in June (7.17 ± 1.05 °C) and the lowest value found in August (1.04 ± 0.35 °C). The cooling effect of paddy-field ranged from 0.59 ± 0.06 °C, 0.77 ± 0.07 °C, and 1.08 ± 0.08 °C for the low-, medium-, and high-density paddies, respectively. Compared to other months, stronger cooling effect was found in May and June. Further analysis showed the conversion of a rain-fed farmland to paddy field reduced the sensible heat flux and soil heat flux by 52.94 W/m² and 15.26 W/m², respectively, while increased the latent heat flux and net radiation by 115.66 W/m² and 47.34 W/m², respectively. The findings from this study indicated the changes in cropland structure and management regime (e.g., irrigation) could profoundly modify land-surface thermal processes and local/regional climate, interfering the signals from global warming. Therefore, instrumental climate data that collected from areas experienced large-scale conversion between rain-fed and paddy farmland should be carefully screened and corrected to prevent land-use induced biases.

A Sensitivity Study of High-Resolution Climate Simulations for Greece

In the present study, the ability of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model (WRF-ARW) to perform climate regionalization studies in the topographically complex region of Greece, was examined in order to explore the possibility of a more reliable selection of physical schemes for the simulation of historical and future high resolution (5 km) climate model experiments to investigate the impact of climate change. This work is directly linked to a previous study investigating the performance of seven different model setups for one year, from which the need was derived for further examination of four different simulations to investigate the model sensitivity on the representation of surface variables statistics during a 5-year period. The results have been compared with observational data for maximum and minimum air temperature and daily precipitation through statistical analysis. Clear similarities were found in precipitation patterns among simulations and observations, yielding smoothly its inter-annual variability, especially during the wettest months and summer periods, with the lowest positive percentage BIAS calculated at about 19% for the selected combination of physics parameterizations (PP3). Regarding the maximum and minimum temperature, statistical analysis showed a high correlation above 0.9, and negative bias around 1−1.5 °C, and positive bias near 2 °C, respectively.

Modified Approach to Reduce GCM Bias in Downscaled Precipitation: A Study in Ganga River Basin

Reanalysis data is widely used to develop predictor-predictand models, which are further used to downscale coarse gridded general circulation models (GCM) data at a local scale. However, large variability in the downscaled product using different GCMs is still a big challenge. The first objective of this study was to assess the performance of reanalysis data to downscale precipitation using different GCMs. High bias in downscaled precipitation was observed using different GCMs, so a different downscaling approach is proposed in which historical data of GCM was used to develop a predictor-predictand model. The earlier approach is termed “Re-Obs” and the proposed approach as “GCM-Obs”. Both models were assessed using mathematical derivation and generated synthetic series. The intermodal bias in different GCMs downscaled precipitation using Re-Obs and GCM-Obs model was also checked. Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-5 (CMIP5) data of ten different GCMs was used to downscale precipitation in different urbanized, rural, and forest regions in the Ganga river basin. Different measures were used to represent the relative performances of one downscaling approach over other approach in terms of closeness of downscaled precipitation with observed precipitation and reduction of bias using different GCMs. The effect of GCM spatial resolution in downscaling was also checked. The model performance, convergence, and skill score were computed to assess the ability of GCM-Obs and Re-Obs models. The proposed GCM-Obs model was found better than Re-Obs model to statistically downscale GCM. It was observed that GCM-Obs model was able to reduce GCM-Observed and GCM-GCM bias in the downscaled precipitation in the Ganga river basin.

Lessons from Inter-Comparison of Decadal Climate Simulations and Observations for the Midwest U.S. and Great Lakes Region

Even with advances in climate modeling, meteorological impact assessment remains elusive, and decision-makers are forced to operate with potentially malinformed predictions. In this article, we investigate the dependence of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation and temperature at 12- and 4-km horizontal resolutions and compare it with 32-km NARR data and 1/16th-degree gridded observations for the Midwest U.S. and Great Lakes region from 1991 to 2000. We used daily climatology, inter-annual variability, percentile, and dry days as metrics for inter-comparison for precipitation. We also calculated the summer and winter daily seasonal minimum, maximum, and average temperature to delineate the temperature trends. Results showed that NARR data is a useful precipitation product for mean warm season and summer climatological studies, but performs extremely poorly for winter and cold seasons for this region. WRF model simulations at 12- and 4-km horizontal resolutions were able to capture the lake-effect precipitation successfully when driven by observed lake surface temperatures. Simulations at 4-km showed negative bias in capturing precipitation without convective parameterization but captured the number of dry days and 99th percentile precipitation extremes well. Overall, our study cautions against hastily pushing for increasingly higher resolution in climate studies, and highlights the need for the careful selection of large-scale boundary forcing data.

Using a Balloon-Launched Unmanned Glider to Validate Real-Time WRF Modeling

The use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for meteorological measurements has expanded significantly in recent years. SUAS are efficient platforms for collecting data with high resolution in both space and time, providing opportunities for enhanced atmospheric sampling. Furthermore, advances in mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) modeling and graphical processing unit (GPU) computing have enabled high resolution weather modeling. In this manuscript, a balloon-launched unmanned glider, complete with a suite of sensors to measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, is deployed for validation of real-time weather models. This work demonstrates the usefulness of sUAS for validating and improving mesoscale, real-time weather models for advancements toward reliable weather forecasts to enable safe and predictable sUAS missions beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS).

Performance Assessment of Dynamic Downscaling of WRF to Simulate Convective Conditions during Sagebrush Phase 1 Tracer Experiments

Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) corresponding to four convective intensive observation periods of Sagebrush Phase 1 tracer experiment were conducted with realistic boundary conditions using Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Multiple nested domains were used to dynamically downscale the conditions from domain with grid size of 24 km to local scales with grid size of 150 m. Sensitivity analysis of mesoscale model was conducted using three boundary layer, three surface layer and two micro-physics schemes. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the surface meteorological variables and boundary layer height from the mesoscale runs and observed values during tracer experiment. Output from mesoscale simulations was used to drive the LES domains. Effect of vertical resolution and sub-grid scale parameterizations were studied by comparing the wind speed and direction profiles along with turbulent kinetic energy at two different heights. Atmospheric stability estimated using the Richardson number and shear exponent evaluated between 8- and 60-m levels was found to vary between weakly unstable to unstable. Comparing the wind direction standard deviations coupled with the wind speeds showed that the WRF-LES underestimated the wind direction fluctuations for wind speeds smaller than 3-ms − 1 . Based on the strengths of convection and shear, WRF-LES was able to simulate horizontal convection roll and convective cell type features.

Effects of Meteorology Nudging in Regional Hydroclimatic Simulations of the Eastern Mediterranean

In this study, we investigated the effects of grid and spectral nudging in regional hydroclimatic simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. We performed year-long simulations for the hydrological year October 2001–September 2002 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12-km resolution, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalyses. Six grid and three spectral nudging options were tested using a number of model configurations. Due to the large uncertainty of regional observations, we compared the model with various satellite- and station-based meteorological datasets. The effect of nudging was tested for mean weather conditions and precipitation characteristics and extremes. For certain parts of the study domain, WRF was found to reproduce both aspects of rainfall over the Eastern Mediterranean reasonably well. Our findings highlighted that, for the WRF modeling system, nudging is critical for the simulation of rainfall; however, the application of interior constraint methods was found to have different impacts on various locations and climatic regimes. For the hyperarid parts of the domain, nudging did not improve the simulation of precipitation amounts (about 20% additional drying was introduced), while it added much value for the wetter rainfall regimes of the Eastern Mediterranean (corrections of about 30%). Improvements in the simulated precipitation were mostly introduced by spectral nudging; however, this option required significant computational resources. For these ERA-Interim-driven simulations, grid nudging that involves specific humidity within the planetary boundary layer is not recommended for the simulation of precipitation since it introduces dry biases up to 75–80%.

Numerical Simulation Study of Winter Pollutant Transport Characteristics over Lanzhou City, Northwest China

Air pollution levels are severe in Lanzhou due to the valley topography and the semi-arid climate. A comprehensive understanding of pollutant transport characteristics, which are affected by atmospheric circulation, can help explain the reason for the air pollution to some extent. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model, the authors of this paper simulated the transport pathways of pollutants discharged from local sources and analyzed the diffusion efficiency over Lanzhou during six winters from 2002 to 2007. Flow field analysis showed that a divergence and convergence region formed in the Lanzhou valley during the day and at night, respectively. The Lanzhou valley was dominated by an easterly wind. Based on transport trajectories from FLEXPART, five main transport pathways, namely, the southwest pathway (SW), west pathway (W), south pathway (S), southeast pathway (SE), and northeast pathway (NE), were identified over Lanzhou. Compared with static weather, it was easier for pollutants to cross the south mountain (i.e., along the southeast pathway) during the strong cold air process. The percentage of particles moving out of the urban valley after 12 h of transport and the ratio of particles moving back into the urban valley showed significant diurnal variability. This indicates that the air pollution over Lanzhou may be reduced to some extent by artificially controlling the emission time of pollutants.

An inverse method to estimate emission rates based on nonlinear least-squares-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation with local air concentration measurements

An inverse source estimation method is proposed to reconstruct emission rates using local air concentration sampling data. It involves the nonlinear least squares-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation (NLS-4DVar) algorithm and a transfer coefficient matrix (TCM) created using FLEXPART, a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model. The method was tested by twin experiments and experiments with actual Cs-137 concentrations measured around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). Emission rates can be reconstructed sequentially with the progression of a nuclear accident, which is important in the response to a nuclear emergency. With pseudo observations generated continuously, most of the emission rates were estimated accurately, except under conditions when the wind blew off land toward the sea and at extremely slow wind speeds near the FDNPP. Because of the long duration of accidents and variability in meteorological fields, monitoring networks composed of land stations only in a local area are unable to provide enough information to support an emergency response. The errors in the estimation compared to the real observations from the FDNPP nuclear accident stemmed from a shortage of observations, lack of data control, and an inadequate atmospheric dispersion model without improvement and appropriate meteorological data. The proposed method should be developed further to meet the requirements of a nuclear emergency response.

A Maieutic Exploration of Nudging Strategies for Regional Climate Applications Using the WRF Model

The use of nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to constrain regional climate downscaling simulations is gaining in popularity because it can reduce error and improve consistency with the driving data. While some attention has been paid to whether nudging is beneficial for downscaling, very little research has been performed to determine best practices. In fact, many published papers use the default nudging configuration (which was designed for numerical weather prediction), follow practices used by colleagues, or adapt methods developed for other regional climate models. Here, a suite of 45 three-year simulations is conducted with WRF over the continental United States to systematically and comprehensively examine a variety of nudging strategies. The simulations here use a longer test period than did previously published works to better evaluate the robustness of each strategy through all four seasons, through multiple years, and across nine regions of the United States. The analysis focuses on the evaluation of 2-m temperature and precipitation, which are two of the most commonly required downscaled output fields for air quality, health, and ecosystems applications. Several specific recommendations are provided to effectively use nudging in WRF for regional climate applications. In particular, spectral nudging is preferred over analysis nudging. Spectral nudging performs best in WRF when it is used toward wind above the planetary boundary layer (through the stratosphere) and temperature and moisture only within the free troposphere. Furthermore, the nudging toward moisture is very sensitive to the nudging coefficient, and the default nudging coefficient in WRF is too high to be used effectively for moisture.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving retrospective WRF simulations

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications.