A pressure solution flow law for the seismogenic zone: Application to Cascadia

We develop a linear viscous constitutive relationship for pressure solution constrained by models of deformed metasedimentary rocks and observations of exposed rocks from ancient subduction zones. We include pressure and temperature dependence on the solubility of silica in fluid by parameterizing a practical van't Hoff relationship. This general flow law is well suited for making predictions about interseismic behavior of subduction zones. We apply the flow law to Cascadia, where thermal structure, geometry, relative plate velocity, and Global Positioning System velocity field are well constrained. Results are consistent with the temperature conditions at which resolvable ductile strain is recorded in subducted mudstones (at depths near the updip limit of the seismogenic zone) and with relative plate motion accommodated completely by viscous deformation (at depths near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone). The flow law also predicts the observed forearc tapering of slip rate deficit with depth.

The role of interplate locking on the seismic reactivation of upper plate faults on the subduction margin of northern Chile

Quaternary deformation in the northern Chile forearc is controlled by trench parallel shortening along reactivated Mesozoic faults. Dextral strikes-slip is expressed in NW–SE striking faults of the Atacama Fault System, and reverse displacement dominates in E–W faults. This deformation results of the convergence in a concave-seaward continental margin. On September 11th, 2020, a M_w 6.3 earthquake and its subsequent aftershocks took place in the coastal region of northern Chile, revealing the reactivation of the deepest segment of a WNW–ESE striking upper plate fault. The reactivation of this fault occurred after the M_w 8.1 Iquique earthquake, and it seems to be connected to a N–S interplate locking segmentation of the plate margin, which is clearly shown by the locking pattern before the Iquique earthquake. This poses the question of how heterogeneous locking influences upper plate seismicity and how it relates to trench-parallel shortening.

Microseismicity Appears to Outline Highly Coupled Regions on the Central Chile Megathrust

We compiled a novel microseismicity catalog for the Central Chile megathrust (29°-35°S), comprising 8,750 earthquakes between April 2014 and December 2018. These events describe a pattern of three trenchward open half-ellipses, consisting of a continuous, coast-parallel seismicity band at 30-45 km depth, and narrow elongated seismicity clusters that protrude to the shallow megathrust and separate largely aseismic regions along strike. To test whether these shapes could outline highly coupled regions ("asperities") on the megathrust, we invert GPS displacement data for interplate locking. The best-fit locking model does not show good correspondence to seismicity, possibly due to lacking resolution. When we prescribe high locking inside the half-ellipses, however, we obtain models with similar data fits that are preferred according to the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). We thus propose that seismicity on the Central Chile megathrust may outline three adjacent highly coupled regions, two of them located between the rupture areas of the 2010 Maule and the 2015 Illapel earthquakes, a segment of the Chilean margin that may be in a late interseismic stage of the seismic cycle.

Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling

Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in M w 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years.

The relation between short- and long-term deformation in actively deforming plate boundary zones

Satellite-based measuring systems are making it possible to monitor deformation of the Earth's surface at a high spatial resolution over periods of several decades and a significant fraction of the seismic cycle. It is widely assumed that this short-term deformation directly reflects the long-term pattern of crustal deformation, although modified in detail by local elastic effects related to locking on individual faults. This way, short-term deformation is often jointly inverted with long-term estimates of fault slip rates, or even stress, over periods of 10 s to 100 s kyrs. Here, I examine the relation between these two timescales of deformation for subduction, continental shortening and rifting tectonic settings, with examples from the active New Zealand and Central Andean plate boundary zone. I show that the relation is inherently non-unique, and simple models of locking on a deep-seated megathrust or decollement, or mantle flow, provide excellent fits to the short-term observations without requiring any information about the geometry and rate of surface faulting. The short-term deformation, in these settings at least, cannot be used to determine the behaviour of individual faults, but instead places constraints on the forces that drive deformation. Thus, there is a fundamental difference between the stress loading and stress relief parts of the earthquake cycle, with failure determined by dynamical rather than kinematic constraints; the same stress loading can give rise to widely different modes of long-term deformation, depending on the strength and rheology of the deforming zone, and the role of gravitational stresses. The process of slip on networks of active faults may have an intermediate timescale of kyrs to 10 s kyrs, where individual faults fail piecemeal without any characteristic behaviour. Physics-based dynamical models of short-term deformation may be the best way to make full use of the increasing quality of this type of data in the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Interseismic Coupling beneath the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya Constrained by GPS Measurements and Its Implication for Strain Segmentation and Seismic Activity

The Sikkim–Bhutan seismic gap has witnessed a long earthquake quiescence since the 1714 M7.5~8.5 earthquake. The state of stress accumulation beneath the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya and its spatial correlation with seismicity remains unclear due to the lack of geodetic measurements and the low levels of seismic activity. We compile Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements in southern Tibet with the available velocities in the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya to reveal the characteristics of strain buildup on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We correct non-tectonic hydrological loading effects in a GPS time series to accurately determine the Three-Dimensional (3D) velocities of each continuous station. Extensive GPS measurements yield convergence rates of 16.2~18.5 mm/y across the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya, which is quite consistent with that observed elsewhere in the Himalaya. Based on a double-ramp structure of the MHT, a refined 3D coupling image is inverted using a dense network of GPS velocities. The result indicates significant along-strike variations of fault coupling beneath the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya. The locking width (coupling > 0.5) of western Bhutan reaches ~100 km, which is 30~40% wider than Sikkim and eastern Bhutan. An obvious embayment of decoupling zone near the border between Sikkim and western Bhutan is recognized, and coincides spatially with the rupture terminates of the 1934 Mw8.2 and the 1714 M7.5~8.5 earthquakes, indicating that the large megathrust earthquakes along the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya are largely segmented by the spatial variation of frictional properties on the MHT. Using a new compilation of seismic records in the Sikkim–Bhutan Himalaya, we analyze the spatial correlation between fault coupling and seismic activity. The result suggests that the seismicity in the Bhutan Himalaya is broadly distributed, instead of restricted in the lower edge of the interseismic locking zone. This implies that the seismic activity in the Bhutan Himalaya is not uniquely controlled by the stress accumulation at the downdip end of the locked portion of the MHT.

Rain and small earthquakes maintain a slow-moving landslide in a persistent critical state

In tectonically active mountain belts, landslides contribute significantly to erosion. Statistical analysis of regional inventories of earthquake-triggered-landslides after large earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) reveal a complex interaction between seismic shaking, landslide material, and rainfall. However, the contributions of each component have never been quantified due to a lack of in-situ data for active landslides. We exploited a 3-year geodetic and seismic dataset for a slow-moving landslide in Peru affected by local earthquakes and seasonal rainfalls. Here we show that in combination, they cause greater landslide motion than either force alone. We also show the rigidity of the landslide’s bulk clearly decreasing during Ml ≥ 5 earthquakes. The recovery is affected by rainfall and small earthquakes (Ml < 3.6), which prevent the soil from healing, highlighting the importance of the timing between forcings. These new quantitative insights into the mechanics of landslides open new perspectives for the study of the mass balance of earthquakes.

In this study, the authors show the interaction between seismic activity and rainfalls on landslide movement and how their timing controls landslide stability and motion.

Earthquake segmentation in northern Chile correlates with curved plate geometry

We performed an integrated analysis of the coseismic slip, afterslip and aftershock activity of the 2014 M_w 8.1 Pisagua earthquake. This earthquake seems to be spatially located between two major historical earthquakes, the 1868 M_w 8.8 earthquake in southern Peru and the 1877 M_w 8.5 earthquake in northern Chile. Continuous GPS data were used to model the coseismic slip of the mainshock and the largest aftershock (M_w 7.6). The afterslip was modeled for 273 days (end of year 2014) after the largest aftershock, revealing two patches of afterslip: a southern patch between the mainshock and the largest aftershock and a patch to the north of the mainshock. Observations from the seismic network indicate that aftershocks were concentrated near the southern patch. Conversely, the northern patch contained hardly any aftershocks, indicating a dominant aseismic slip. The Pisagua earthquake occurred within a prominent, curved section of the Andean subduction zone. This section may have acted as a barrier for the largest historical earthquakes and as an isolated segment during the Pisagua earthquake.

Lithospheric folding by flexural slip in subduction zones as source for reverse fault intraslab earthquakes

Subduction requires the permanent generation of a bend fold in the subducting slab which mechanics is not well understood. Lithospheric bending of subducting slabs was traditionally considered to be accommodated by orthogonal flexure, generating extensional outer rise earthquakes responsible of the external arc elongation during folding. Here we explore the possibility of lithospheric flexure being accommodated through simple shear deformation parallel to the slab (folding by flexural slip) and evaluate this process as source of earthquakes. The seismicity predicted by flexural slip dominated slab bending explains a significant amount of intermediate earthquakes observed in subduction zones with different degrees of coupling. This mechanism predicts the generation of intraslab thrust earthquakes with fault planes subparallel to the slab top. Being the orientations of the fault planes the same for the interface thrust earthquakes and the flexural-slip intraslab earthquakes, the amount of seismic moment liberated by the interface could be significantly lower than considered before. This proposed seismic source should be taken into account in models and hazard studies of subduction zones. Determining the seismic generating processes in subduction zones and their characteristics is a fundamental issue for the correct assessment of the associated seismic and tsunami risk.

Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake

The earthquake nucleation process has been vigorously investigated based on geophysical observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical studies; however, a general consensus has yet to be achieved. Here, we studied nucleation process for the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 megathrust earthquake located within the current North Chile seismic gap, by analyzing a long-term earthquake catalog constructed from a cross-correlation detector using continuous seismic data. Accelerations in seismicity, the amount of aseismic slip inferred from repeating earthquakes, and the background seismicity, accompanied by an increasing frequency of earthquake migrations, started around 270 days before the mainshock at locations up-dip of the largest coseismic slip patch. These signals indicate that repetitive sequences of fast and slow slip took place on the plate interface at a transition zone between fully locked and creeping portions. We interpret that these different sliding modes interacted with each other and promoted accelerated unlocking of the plate interface during the nucleation phase.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake

On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.

Intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. The moment magnitude (Mw) 8.1 Iquique earthquake of 1 April 2014 broke a highly coupled portion of this gap. To understand the seismicity preceding this event, we studied the location and mechanisms of the foreshocks and computed Global Positioning System (GPS) time series at stations located on shore. Seismicity off the coast of Iquique started to increase in January 2014. After 16 March, several Mw > 6 events occurred near the low-coupled zone. These events migrated northward for ~50 kilometers until the 1 April earthquake occurred. On 16 March, on-shore continuous GPS stations detected a westward motion that we model as a slow slip event situated in the same area where the mainshock occurred.