Improving WRF-Chem PM2.5 predictions by combining data assimilation and deep-learning-based bias correction

In numerical model simulations, data assimilation (DA) on the initial conditions and bias correction (BC) of model outputs have been proven to be promising approaches to improving PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic equivalent diameter of ≤ 2.5 μm) predictions. This study compared the optimization effects of these two methods and developed a new scheme that combines DA and BC simultaneously. Four parallel experiments were conducted during winter 2019: a control experiment directly forecasted by WRF-Chem (experiment name: WRF-Chem); an experiment that assimilated in situ observations based on the GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation) system (WRF-Chem_DA); an experiment with deep-learning-based BC (WRF-Chem_BC); and an experiment considering the combination of DA on the initial conditions and BC (WRF-Chem_DA_BC). Statistically, the accuracy of PM2.5 predictions could be optimized by both DA and BC for the first 24-h period, and WRF-Chem_BC performed better than WRF-Chem_DA in the initial field, especially in the period of 10-24 h, while the best performance was achieved by combining BC and DA. Throughout the initial 24-h period, compared with the control experiment, the results of WRF-Chem_DA_BC (WRF-Chem_DA, WRF-Chem_BC) showed an improvement in terms of root-mean-square error, with reduction proportions varying from 38.90 % to 48.86 % (18.88 % to 32.44 %, 30.10 % to 46.08 %). Besides having the best optimization effect over the whole domain, the combined method also performed well in different regions: during the forecasting period of 0-24 h, the RMSEs decreased from 32 % to 62 %, 39 % to 57 %, 28 % to 40 %, and 30 % to 49 % in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Central China, and Sichuan Basin urban agglomerations, respectively.

3DVar sectoral emission inversion based on source apportionment and machine learning

Air quality models are increasingly important in air pollution forecasting and control. Sectoral emissions significantly impact the accuracy of air quality models and source apportionment. This paper studied the 3DVar (three-dimensional variational) emission inversion method, which is based on machine learning, and then expanded it to sectoral emission inversion combined with source apportionment. Two machine learning conversion matrices were established to implement this method: a matrix that converts the total pollutant concentration to sectoral source apportionment results and a matrix that converts the sectoral source apportionment results to corresponding emissions. Combined with the O3 (ozone) concentration contributed by VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and NOx (nitrogen oxides) precursors in source apportionment, the inversion ability for O3-NOx-VOCs nonlinear processes was improved. Taking the BTH (Beijing‒Tianjin-Hebei) region from January 15 to 30, 2019, as an example, the results revealed that the regional errors of PM2.5 and O3 in the inversion experiment were reduced by 47% and 45%, respectively, and the temporal errors were reduced by 44% and 16%, respectively.

China's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Estimated Using Surface Observations of Coemitted NO2

Accurate estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions are of great importance for climate prediction and mitigation regulations but remain a significant challenge for accounting methods relying on economic statistics and emission factors. In this study, we employed a regional data assimilation framework to assimilate in situ NO2 observations, allowing us to combine observation-constrained NOx emissions coemitted with FFCO2 and grid-specific CO2-to-NOx emission ratios to infer the daily FFCO2 emissions over China. The estimated national total for 2016 was 11.4 PgCO2·yr-1, with an uncertainty (1σ) of 1.5 PgCO2·yr-1 that accounted for errors associated with atmospheric transport, inversion framework parameters, and CO2-to-NOx emission ratios. Our findings indicated that widely used "bottom-up" emission inventories generally ignore numerous activity level statistics of FFCO2 related to energy industries and power plants in western China, whereas the inventories are significantly overestimated in developed regions and key urban areas owing to exaggerated emission factors and inexact spatial disaggregation. The optimized FFCO2 estimate exhibited more distinct seasonality with a significant increase in emissions in winter. These findings advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal regime of FFCO2 emissions in China.

Performance comparisons of the three data assimilation methods for improved predictability of PM2·5: Ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter, and three-dimensional variational methods

To improve the predictability of concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter, a data assimilation (DA) system using ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) has been developed for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The EnSRF DA method is a deterministic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method, which means that unlike the EnKF method, it does not add random noise to the observations. To compare the performances of the EnSRF with those of other DA methods, such as EnKF and 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational), these three methods were applied to the same CMAQ model simulations with identical experimental settings. This is the first attempt in the field of chemical DA to compare the EnKF and EnSRF methods. An identical set of surface fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were assimilated every 6 h by all the DA methods over a CMAQ domain of East Asia, during the period from 01 May to 11 June 2016. In parallel with 'reanalysis experiments', we also carried out '48 h prediction experiments' using the optimized initial conditions produced by the three DA methods. Detailed analyses among the three DA methods were then carried out by comparing both the reanalysis and the prediction outputs with the observed surface PM_2.5 over four regions (i.e., South Korea, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, Shandong province, and Liaoning province). The comparison results revealed that the EnSRF produced the best reanalysis and prediction fields in terms of several statistical metrics. For example, when the 3DVAR, EnKF, and EnSRF methods were used, averaged normalized mean biases (NMBs) decreased by (57.6, 85.6, and 91.8) % in reanalyses and (39.7, 87.6, and 91.5) % in first-day predictions, compared to the CMAQ control experiment (i.e., without DA) over South Korea, respectively. Also, over the three Chinese regions, the EnSRF method outperformed the EnKF and 3DVAR methods.

Vertical aerosol data assimilation technology and application based on satellite and ground lidar: A review and outlook

Observations and numerical models are mainly used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and vertical structure characteristics of aerosols to understand aerosol pollution and its effects. However, the limitations of observations and the uncertainties of numerical models bias aerosol calculations and predictions. Data assimilation combines observations and numerical models to improve the accuracy of the initial, analytical fields of models and promote the development of atmospheric aerosol pollution research. Numerous studies have been conducted to integrate multi-source data, such as aerosol optical depth and aerosol extinction coefficient profile, into various chemical transport models using various data assimilation algorithms and have achieved good assimilation results. The definition of data assimilation and the main algorithms will be briefly presented, and the progress of aerosol assimilation according to two types of aerosol data, namely, aerosol optical depth and extinction coefficient, will be presented. The application of vertical aerosol data assimilation, as well as the future trends and challenges of aerosol data assimilation, will be further analysed.

Seasonal Dependence of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasting Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

This study examines the performance of a data assimilation and forecasting system that simultaneously assimilates satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground-based PM10 and PM2.5 observations into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The data assimilation case for the surface PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations exhibits a higher consistency with the observed data by showing more correlation coefficients than the no-assimilation case. The data assimilation also shows beneficial impacts on the PM10 and PM2.5 forecasts for South Korea for up to 24 h from the updated initial condition. This study also finds deficiencies in data assimilation and forecasts, as the model shows a pronounced seasonal dependence of forecasting accuracy, on which the seasonal changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns have a significant impact. In spring, the forecast accuracy decreases due to large uncertainties in natural dust transport from the continent by north-westerlies, while the model performs reasonably well in terms of anthropogenic emission and transport in winter. When the south-westerlies prevail in summer, the forecast accuracy increases with the overall reduction in ambient concentration. The forecasts also show significant accuracy degradation as the lead time increases because of systematic model biases. A simple statistical correction that adjusts the mean and variance of the forecast outputs to resemble those in the observed distribution can maintain the forecast skill at a practically useful level for lead times of more than a day. For a categorical forecast, the skill score of the data assimilation run increased by up to 37% compared to that of the case with no assimilation, and the skill score was further improved by 10% through bias correction.

Improving PM2.5 predictions during COVID-19 lockdown by assimilating multi-source observations and adjusting emissions

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak caused a suspension of almost all non-essential human activities, leading to a significant reduction of anthropogenic emissions. However, the emission inventory of the chemistry transport model cannot be updated in time, resulting in large uncertainty in PM_2.5 predictions. This study adopted a three-dimensional variational approach to assimilate multi-source PM_2.5 data from satellite and ground observations and jointly adjusted emissions to improve PM_2.5 predictions of the WRF-Chem model. Experiments were conducted to verify the method over Hubei Province, China, during the COVID-19 epidemic from Jan 21st to Mar 20th, 2020. The results showed that PM_2.5 predictions were improved at almost all the validation sites, and the benefit of data assimilation (DA) can last for 48 h. However, the benefits of DA diminished quickly with the increase of the forecast time. By adjusting emissions, the PM_2.5 predictions showed a much slower error accumulation along forecast time. At 48Z, the RMSE still has an 8.85 μg/m³ (19.49%) improvement, suggesting the effectiveness of emissions adjustment based on the improved initial conditions via DA.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework for Air Quality Forecasts in Northeast Asia: A Case Study Utilizing Virtual Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer and Surface Monitored Aerosol Data

Prior knowledge of the effectiveness of new observation instruments or new data streams for air quality can contribute significantly to shaping the policy and budget planning related to those instruments and data. In view of this, one of the main purposes of the development and application of the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) is to assess the potential impact of new observations on the quality of the current monitoring or forecasting systems, thereby making this framework valuable. This study introduces the overall OSSE framework established to support air quality forecasting and the details of its individual components. Furthermore, it shows case study results from Northeast Asia and the potential benefits of the new observation data scenarios on the PM2.5 forecasting skills, including the PM data from 200 virtual monitoring sites in the Gobi Desert and North Korean non-forest areas (NEWPM) and the aerosol optical depths (AOD) data from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS AOD). Performance statistics suggest that the concurrent assimilation of the NEWPM and the PM data from current monitoring sites in China and South Korea can improve the PM2.5 concentration forecasts in South Korea by 66.4% on average for October 2017 and 95.1% on average for February 2018. Assimilating the GEMS AOD improved the performance of the PM2.5 forecasts in South Korea for October 2017 by approximately 68.4% (~78.9% for February 2018). This OSSE framework is expected to be continuously implemented to verify its utilization potential for various air quality observation systems and data scenarios. Hopefully, this kind of application result will aid environmental researchers and decision-makers in performing additional in-depth studies for the improvement of PM air quality forecasts.

The impacts of background error covariance on particulate matter assimilation and forecast: An ideal case study with a modal aerosol model over China

Accurate estimation of background error covariance (BEC) is the key to successful data assimilation (DA). In aerosol three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method is typically applied to estimate BEC, which uses the difference between forecasts of dissimilar lengths valid at the common time. The difference will be considerably small when the underestimation of the aerosol is caused by the lack of emissions or the missing of chemical progress, which makes the aerosol concentration field too difficult to constrain. In this study, a modified module for adjusting the BEC of individual aerosol species was developed in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3DVAR system. This module was mainly utilized to expand the standard deviations and the horizontal length scales of BEC for the specified aerosol components by multiplying an adjustment factor. The results of the impacts of BEC on PM₁₀ 24-hour forecast indicated that the horizontal length scales take a relatively more important role than the standard deviations. The horizontal length scales affect the influence sphere more significantly, which might be crucial for the longer length forecast. Moreover, the larger and the wider differences of the aerosol initial conditions produced by DA, the longer duration of DA benefits. Using the original BEC, the 24-hour forecast of PM₁₀ reduced fractional error by 13%, while using the modified BEC in DA can decline fractional error by 29%. More work needs to be conducted to investigate how to modify the aerosol BEC in 3DVAR, or how to generate a suitable BEC, which is crucial for aerosol forecast and analysis, especially during the aerosol-polluted period.

Top-down vehicle emission inventory for spatial distribution and dispersion modeling of particulate matter

Emission inventories are one of the most critical inputs for the successful modeling of air quality. The performance of the modeling results is directly affected by the quality of atmospheric emission inventories. Consequently, the development of representative inventories is always required. Due to the lack of regional inventories in Brazil, this study aimed to investigate the use of the particulate matter (PM) emission estimation from the Brazilian top-down vehicle emission inventory (VEI) of 2012 for air quality modeling. Here, we focus on road vehicles since they are usually responsible for significant emissions of PM in urban areas. The total Brazilian emission of PM (63,000 t year^-1) from vehicular sources was distributed into the urban areas of 5557 municipalities, with 1-km² grid spacing, considering two approaches: (i) population and (ii) fleet of each city. A comparison with some local inventories is discussed. The inventory was compiled in the PREP-CHEM-SRC processor tool. One-month modeling (August 2015) was performed with WRF-Chem for the four metropolitan areas of Brazilian Southeast: Belo Horizonte (MABH), Great Vitória (MAGV), Rio de Janeiro (MARJ), and São Paulo (MASP). In addition, modeling with the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory was carried out to compare the results. Overall, EDGAR inventory obtained higher PM emissions than the VEI segregated by population and fleet, which is expected owing to considerations of additional sources of emission (e.g., industrial and residential). This higher emission of EDGAR resulted in higher PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations, overestimating the observations in MASP, while the proposed inventory well represented the ambient concentrations, obtaining better statistics indices. For the other three metropolitan areas, both EDGAR and the VEI inventories obtained consistent results. Therefore, the present work endorses the fact that vehicles are responsible for the more substantial contribution to PM emissions in the studied urban areas. Furthermore, the use of VEI can be representative for modeling air quality in the future.

Improving PM2.5 Forecasts in China Using an Initial Error Transport Model

Efforts of using data assimilation to improve PM_2.5 forecasts have been hindered by the limited number of species and incomplete vertical coverage in the observations. The common practice of initializing a chemical transport model (CTM) with assimilated initial conditions (ICs) may lead to model imbalances, which could confine the impacts of assimilated ICs within a day. To address this challenge, we introduce an initial error transport model (IETM) approach to improving PM_2.5 forecasts. The model describes the transport of initial errors by advection, diffusion, and decay processes and calculates the impacts of assimilated ICs separately from the CTM. The CTM forecasts with unassimilated ICs are then corrected by the IETM output. We implement our method to improve PM_2.5 forecasts over central and eastern China. The reduced root-mean-square errors for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-day forecasts during January 2018 were 51.2, 27.0, 16.4, and 9.4 μg m^-3, respectively, which are 3.2, 6.9, 8.6, and 10.4 times those by the CTM forecasts with assimilated ICs. More pronounced improvements are found for highly reactive PM_2.5 components. These and similar results for July 2017 suggest that our method can enhance and extend the impacts of the assimilated data without being affected by the imbalance issue.

Improving Surface PM2.5 Forecasts in the United States Using an Ensemble of Chemical Transport Model Outputs: 1. Bias Correction With Surface Observations in Nonrural Areas

This work is the first of a two-part study that aims to develop a computationally efficient bias correction framework to improve surface PM_2.5 forecasts in the United States. Here, an ensemble-based Kalman filter (KF) technique is developed primarily for nonrural areas with approximately 500 surface observation sites for PM_2.5 and applied to three (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem, and WRF-CMAQ) chemical transport model (CTM) hindcast outputs for June 2012. While all CTMs underestimate daily surface PM_2.5 mass concentration by 20-50%, KF correction is effective for improving each CTM forecast. Subsequently, two ensemble methods are formulated: (1) the arithmetic mean ensemble (AME) that equally weights each model and (2) the optimized ensemble (OPE) that calculates the individual model weights by minimizing the least-square errors. While the OPE shows superior performance than the AME, the combination of either the AME or the OPE with a KF performs better than the OPE alone, indicating the effectiveness of the KF technique. Overall, the combination of a KF with the OPE shows the best results. Lastly, the Successive Correction Method (SCM) was applied to spread the bias correction from model grids with surface PM_2.5 observations to the grids lacking ground observations by using a radius of influence of 125 km derived from surface observations, which further improves the forecast of surface PM_2.5 at the national scale. Our findings provide the foundation for the second part of this study that uses satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to further improve the forecast of surface PM_2.5 in rural areas by performing statistical analysis of model output.

Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a modal aerosol model: Implementation and application in AOD forecasts over East Asia

A new aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation (DA) module was developed in Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system, named FastJ/CRTM-AOD DA module. And applied to the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe with the Secondary Organic Aerosol Model (MADE/SORGAM) in the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry model (WRF/Chem). The Fast-J optical module in WRF/Chem was used as the observation operator of AOD. The corresponding Jacobian code was modified from the one of CRTM-AOD in GSI. This way obviated the need for the Jacobian code's generation, which was complex and difficult for the highly nonlinear observation operator. During the studying period (January and April of 2014), compared to the ground AOD observations, AOD DA reduced about 20% fractional error (FE) with MADE/SORGAM. The original DA framework, which applied to the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) mechanism, performed slightly better than the new assimilation scheme for the low-value AOD situations (value < 0.4). However, compared to the original DA framework, the new DA scheme show a notable improvement for the high-value (0.4 < value ≤ 1.2) and extreme-high-value (value > 1.2) AOD situations. FE can be reduced by 48% and 64%, respectively. It indicates that the AOD DA impacts on AOD forecasts vary significant between different aerosol mechanisms. Moreover, FastJ/CRTM-AOD DA module can be easily and efficiently applied to the other aerosol schemes and the other optical modules, which is important to the development on AOD assimilation.

Evaluating the Impact of Assimilating Aerosol Optical Depth Observations on Dust Forecasts Over North Africa and the East Atlantic Using Different Data Assimilation Methods

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data using different data assimilation (DA) methods on dust analyses and forecasts over North Africa and tropical North Atlantic. To do so, seven experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting dust model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system. Six of these experiments differ in whether or not AOD observations are assimilated and the DA method used, the latter of which includes the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var), ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and hybrid methods. The seventh experiment, which allows us to assess the impact of assimilating deep blue AOD data, assimilates only dark target AOD data using the hybrid method. The assimilation of MODIS AOD data clearly improves AOD analyses and forecasts up to 48 hr in length. Results also show that assimilating deep blue data has a primarily positive effect on AOD analyses and forecasts over and downstream of the major North African source regions. Without assimilating deep blue data (assimilating dark target only), AOD assimilation only improves AOD forecasts for up to 30 hr. Of the three DA methods examined, the hybrid and EnSRF methods produce better AOD analyses and forecasts than the 3D-Var method does. Despite the clear benefit of AOD assimilation for AOD analyses and forecasts, the lack of information regarding the vertical distribution of aerosols in AOD data means that AOD assimilation has very little positive effect on analyzed or forecasted vertical profiles of backscatter.

Evaluation of Environmental Moisture from NWP Models with Measurements from Advanced Geostationary Satellite Imager—A Case Study

The distribution of tropospheric moisture in the environment is highly associated with storm development. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the uncertainty of moisture fields from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for better understanding and enhancing storm prediction. With water vapor absorption band radiance measurements from the advanced imagers onboard the new generation of geostationary weather satellites, it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the environmental moisture fields from NWP models. Three NWP models—Global Forecast System (GFS), Unified Model (UM), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)—are evaluated with brightness temperature (BT) measurements from the three moisture channels of Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the Himawari-8 satellite for Typhoon Linfa (2015) case. It is found that the three NWP models have similar performance for lower tropospheric moisture, and GFS has a smaller bias for middle tropospheric moisture. Besides, there is a close relationship between moisture forecasts in the environment and the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts in GFS, while regional WRF does not show this pattern. When the infrared and microwave sounder radiance measurements from polar orbit satellite are assimilated in regional WRF, it is clearly shown that the environment moisture fields are improved compared with that with only conventional data are assimilated.

Can Data Assimilation of Surface PM2.5 and Satellite AOD Improve WRF-Chem Forecasting? A Case Study for Two Scenarios of Particulate Air Pollution Episodes in Poland

Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation tool, a forecasting system was used for two selected episodes (winter and summer) over Eastern Europe. During the winter episode, very high particular matter (PM2.5, diameter less than 2.5 µm) concentrations, related to low air temperatures and increased emission from residential heating, were measured at many stations in Poland. During the summer episode, elevated aerosol optical depth (AOD), likely related to the transport of pollution from biomass fires, was observed in Southern Poland. Our aim is to verify if there is a relevant positive impact of surface and satellite data assimilation (DA) on modeled PM2.5 concentrations, and to assess whether there are significant differences in the DA’s impact on concentrations between the two seasons. The results show a significant difference in the impact of surface and satellite DA on the model results between the summer and winter episode, which to a large degree is related to the availability of the satellite data. For example, the application of satellite DA raises the factor of two statistic from 0.18 to 0.78 for the summer episode, whereas this statistic remains unchanged (0.71) for the winter. The study suggests that severe winter air pollution episodes in Poland and Eastern Europe in general, often related to the dense cover of low clouds, will benefit from the assimilation of surface observations rather than satellite data, which can be very sparse in such meteorological situations. In contrast, the assimilation of satellite data can have a greater positive impact on the model results during summer than the assimilation of surface data for the same period.

Retrieval of the Fine-Mode Aerosol Optical Depth over East China Using a Grouped Residual Error Sorting (GRES) Method from Multi-Angle and Polarized Satellite Data

The fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AODf) is an important parameter for the environment and climate change study, which mainly represents the anthropogenic aerosols component. The Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Science coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL) instrument can detect polarized signal from multi-angle observation and the polarized signal mainly comes from the radiation contribution of the fine-mode aerosols, which provides an opportunity to obtain AODf directly. However, the currently operational algorithm of Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique (LOA) has a poor AODf retrieval accuracy over East China on high aerosol loading days. This study focused on solving this issue and proposed a grouped residual error sorting (GRES) method to determine the optimal aerosol model in AODf retrieval using the traditional look-up table (LUT) approach and then the AODf retrieval accuracy over East China was improved. The comparisons between the GRES retrieved and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground-based AODf at Beijing, Xianghe, Taihu and Hong_Kong_PolyU sites produced high correlation coefficients (r) of 0.900, 0.933, 0.957 and 0.968, respectively. The comparisons of the GRES retrieved AODf and PARASOL AODf product with those of the AERONET observations produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.054 versus 0.104 on high aerosol loading days (AERONET mean AODf at 865 nm = 0.283). An application using the GRES method for total AOD (AODt) retrieval also showed a good expandability for multi-angle aerosol retrieval of this method.

Estimates of Health Impacts and Radiative Forcing in Winter Haze in Eastern China through Constraints of Surface PM2.5 Predictions

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM_2.5 concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM_2.5 concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.67 to 0.94. At nonassimilated sites, improvements (higher correlation coefficients and lower mean bias errors (MBE) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE)) are also found in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and AOD predictions. Using the constrained aerosol fields, we estimate that the PM_2.5 concentrations in January 2013 might have caused 7550 premature deaths in Jing-Jin-Ji areas, which are 2% higher than the estimates using unconstrained aerosol fields. We also estimate that the daytime monthly mean anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) to be -29.9W/m² at the surface, 27.0W/m² inside the atmosphere, and -2.9W/m² at the top of the atmosphere. Our estimates update the previously reported overestimations along Yangtze River region and underestimations in North China. This GSI-WRF-Chem system would also be potentially useful for air quality forecasting in China.

Development and implementation of a remote-sensing and in situ data-assimilating version of CMAQ for operational PM2.5 forecasting. Part 1: MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data-assimilation design and testing

This two-part paper reports on the development, implementation, and improvement of a version of the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that assimilates real-time remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) information and ground-based PM2.5 monitor data in routine prognostic application. The model is being used by operational air quality forecasters to help guide their daily issuance of state or local-agency-based air quality alerts (e.g. action days, health advisories). Part 1 describes the development and testing of the initial assimilation capability, which was implemented offline in partnership with NASA and the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) Regional Planning Organization (RPO). In the initial effort, MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are input into a variational data-assimilation scheme using both the traditional Dark Target and relatively new "Deep Blue" retrieval methods. Evaluation of the developmental offline version, reported in Part 1 here, showed sufficient promise to implement the capability within the online, prognostic operational model described in Part 2. In Part 2, the addition of real-time surface PM2.5 monitoring data to improve the assimilation and an initial evaluation of the prognostic modeling system across the continental United States (CONUS) is presented.

IMPLICATIONS

Air quality forecasts are now routinely used to understand when air pollution may reach unhealthy levels. For the first time, an operational air quality forecast model that includes the assimilation of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and ground based PM2.5 observations is being used. The assimilation enables quantifiable improvements in model forecast skill, which improves confidence in the accuracy of the officially-issued forecasts. This helps air quality stakeholders be more effective in taking mitigating actions (reducing power consumption, ride-sharing, etc.) and avoiding exposures that could otherwise result in more serious air quality episodes or more deleterious health effects.