Climatic controls on the dynamic lateral expansion of northern peatlands and its potential implication for the 'anomalous' atmospheric CH4 rise since the mid-Holocene

Understanding the dynamic changes in peatland area during the Holocene is essential for unraveling the connections between northern peatland development and global carbon budgets. However, studies investigating the centennial to millennial-scale process of peatland expansion and its climate and environmental drivers are still limited. In this study, we present a reconstruction of the peatland area and lateral peatland expansion rate of a peatland complex in northern Sweden since the mid-Holocene, based on Ground Penetrating Radar measurements of peat thickness supported by radiocarbon (14C) dates from four peat cores. Based on this analysis, lateral expansion of the peatland followed a northwest-southeast directionality, constrained by the undulating post-glacial topography. The areal extent of peat has increased non-linearly since the mid-Holocene, and the peatland lateral expansion rate has generally been on the rise, with intensified expansion occurring after around 3500 cal yr BP. Abrupt declines in lateral expansion rates were synchronized with the decreases in total solar irradiance superimposed on the millennial ice-rafted debris events in the northern high latitudes. Supported by the temporal evolution of peatland extent in four other Fennoscandian peatlands, it appears that the northern peatland areal extent during the early to middle Holocene was much smaller compared to previous empirical model reconstructions based on basal age compilations. Interestingly, our reconstruction shows the increments of peat area since the mid-Holocene coincide with the rise in atmospheric CH4 concentration, and that abrupt variations in atmospheric CH4 on decadal to centennial timescales could be synchronized with peatland lateral expansion rates. Based on our analysis we put forward the hypothesis that lateral expansion of northern peatlands is a significant driver of dynamics in the late Holocene atmospheric CH4 budget. We strongly urge for more empirical data to quantify lateral expansion rates and test such hypotheses.

Current understanding of the global cycling of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide

To address the climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it is essential to understand and quantitatively elucidate their cycling on the Earth's surface. This paper first presents an overview of the global cycling of three greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), followed by a description of their variations in the atmosphere. This paper then presents the recent global budgets of these greenhouse gases estimated using two different approaches, top-down and bottom-up. Discussions on our current knowledge regarding the global cycling of the three gases are also presented.

Glacial/interglacial wetland, biomass burning, and geologic methane emissions constrained by dual stable isotopic CH4 ice core records

Atmospheric methane (CH4) records reconstructed from polar ice cores represent an integrated view on processes predominantly taking place in the terrestrial biogeosphere. Here, we present dual stable isotopic methane records [δ13CH4 and δD(CH4)] from four Antarctic ice cores, which provide improved constraints on past changes in natural methane sources. Our isotope data show that tropical wetlands and seasonally inundated floodplains are most likely the controlling sources of atmospheric methane variations for the current and two older interglacials and their preceding glacial maxima. The changes in these sources are steered by variations in temperature, precipitation, and the water table as modulated by insolation, (local) sea level, and monsoon intensity. Based on our δD(CH4) constraint, it seems that geologic emissions of methane may play a steady but only minor role in atmospheric CH4 changes and that the glacial budget is not dominated by these sources. Superimposed on the glacial/interglacial variations is a marked difference in both isotope records, with systematically higher values during the last 25,000 y compared with older time periods. This shift cannot be explained by climatic changes. Rather, our isotopic methane budget points to a marked increase in fire activity, possibly caused by biome changes and accumulation of fuel related to the late Pleistocene megafauna extinction, which took place in the course of the last glacial.

Role of megafauna and frozen soil in the atmospheric CH4 dynamics

Modern wetlands are the world’s strongest methane source. But what was the role of this source in the past? An analysis of global ¹⁴C data for basal peat combined with modelling of wetland succession allowed us to reconstruct the dynamics of global wetland methane emission through time. These data show that the rise of atmospheric methane concentrations during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition was not connected with wetland expansion, but rather started substantially later, only 9 thousand years ago. Additionally, wetland expansion took place against the background of a decline in atmospheric methane concentration. The isotopic composition of methane varies according to source. Owing to ice sheet drilling programs past dynamics of atmospheric methane isotopic composition is now known. For example over the course of Pleistocene-Holocene transition atmospheric methane became depleted in the deuterium isotope, which indicated that the rise in methane concentrations was not connected with activation of the deuterium-rich gas clathrates. Modelling of the budget of the atmospheric methane and its isotopic composition allowed us to reconstruct the dynamics of all main methane sources. For the late Pleistocene, the largest methane source was megaherbivores, whose total biomass is estimated to have exceeded that of present-day humans and domestic animals. This corresponds with our independent estimates of herbivore density on the pastures of the late Pleistocene based on herbivore skeleton density in the permafrost. During deglaciation, the largest methane emissions originated from degrading frozen soils of the mammoth steppe biome. Methane from this source is unique, as it is depleted of all isotopes. We estimated that over the entire course of deglaciation (15,000 to 6,000 year before present), soils of the mammoth steppe released 300–550 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of methane. From current study we conclude that the Late Quaternary Extinction significantly affected the global methane cycle.

Contrasting wetland CH4 emission responses to simulated glacial atmospheric CO2 in temperate bogs and fens

Wetlands were the largest source of atmospheric methane (CH(4) ) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but the sensitivity of this source to exceptionally low atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2) ]) at the time has not been examined experimentally. We tested the hypothesis that LGM atmospheric [CO(2) ] reduced CH(4) emissions as a consequence of decreased photosynthate allocation to the rhizosphere. We exposed minerotrophic fen and ombrotrophic bog peatland mesocosms to simulated LGM (c. 200 ppm) or ambient (c. 400 ppm) [CO(2) ] over 21 months (n = 8 per treatment) and measured gaseous CH(4) flux, pore water dissolved CH(4) and volatile fatty acid (VFA; an indicator of plant carbon supply to the rhizosphere) concentrations. Cumulative CH(4) flux from fen mesocosms was suppressed by 29% (P < 0.05) and rhizosphere pore water [CH(4) ] by c. 50% (P < 0.01) in the LGM [CO(2) ], variables that remained unaffected in bog mesocosms. VFA analysis indicated that changes in plant root exudates were not the driving mechanism behind these results. Our data suggest that the LGM [CO(2) ] suppression of wetland CH(4) emissions is contingent on trophic status. The heterogeneous response may be attributable to differences in species assemblage that influence the dominant CH(4) production pathway, rhizosphere supplemented photosynthesis and CH(4) oxidation.

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era.

Northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in deglacial atmospheric CH4

Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (14C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality 14C dates are commonly included and because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal 14C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show that nearly half the 14C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated 14C dates. We present revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (Termination 1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH4. Our results demonstrate that subtle methodological changes in the synthesis of basal 14C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.

Rapid deglacial and early Holocene expansion of peatlands in Alaska

Northern peatlands represent one of the largest biospheric carbon (C) reservoirs; however, the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle remains intensely debated, owing in part to the paucity of detailed regional datasets and the complexity of the role of climate, ecosystem processes, and environmental factors in controlling peatland C dynamics. Here we used detailed C accumulation data from four peatlands and a compilation of peatland initiation ages across Alaska to examine Holocene peatland dynamics and climate sensitivity. We find that 75% of dated peatlands in Alaska initiated before 8,600 years ago and that early Holocene C accumulation rates were four times higher than the rest of the Holocene. Similar rapid peatland expansion occurred in West Siberia during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Our results suggest that high summer temperature and strong seasonality during the HTM in Alaska might have played a major role in causing the highest rates of C accumulation and peatland expansion. The rapid peatland expansion and C accumulation in these vast regions contributed significantly to the peak of atmospheric methane concentrations in the early Holocene. Furthermore, we find that Alaskan peatlands began expanding much earlier than peatlands in other regions, indicating an important contribution of these peatlands to the pre-Holocene increase in atmospheric methane concentrations.

A gas chromatography/pyrolysis/isotope ratio mass spectrometry system for high-precision deltaD measurements of atmospheric methane extracted from ice cores

Air enclosures in polar ice cores represent the only direct paleoatmospheric archive. Analysis of the entrapped air provides clues to the climate system of the past in decadal to centennial resolution. A wealth of information has been gained from measurements of concentrations of greenhouse gases; however, little is known about their isotopic composition. In particular, stable isotopologues (deltaD and delta(13)C) of methane (CH(4)) record valuable information on its global cycle as the different sources exhibit distinct carbon and hydrogen isotopic composition. However, CH(4) isotope analysis is limited by the large sample size required and the demanding analysis as high precision is required. Here we present a highly automated, high-precision online gas chromatography/pyrolysis/isotope ratio monitoring mass spectrometry (GC/P/irmMS) technique for the analysis of deltaD(CH(4)). It includes gas extraction from ice, preconcentration, gas chromatographic separation and pyrolysis of CH(4) from roughly 500 g of ice with CH(4) concentrations as low as 350 ppbv. Ice samples with approximately 40 mL air and only approximately 1 nmol CH(4) can be measured with a precision of 3.4 per thousand. The precision for 65 mL air samples with recent atmospheric concentration is 1.5 per thousand. The CH(4) concentration can be obtained along with isotope data which is crucial for reporting ice core data on matched time scales and enables us to detect flaws in the measurement procedure. Custom-made script-based processing of MS raw and peak data enhance the system's performance with respect to stability, peak size dependency, hence precision and accuracy and last but not least time requirement.

Climate change: the evidence and our options

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.

A new method for high-resolution methane measurements on polar ice cores using continuous flow analysis

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Rapid variations of the CH4 concentration, as frequently registered, for example, during the last ice age, have been used as reliable time markers for the definition of a common time scale of polar ice cores. In addition, these variations indicate changes in the sources of methane primarily associated with the presence of wetlands. In order to determine the exact time evolution of such fast concentration changes, CH4 measurements of the highest resolution in the ice core archive are required. Here, we present a new, semicontinuous and field-deployable CH4 detection method, which was incorporated in a continuous flow analysis (CFA) system. In CFA, samples cut along the axis of an ice core are melted at a melt speed of typically 3.5 cm/min. The air from bubbles in the ice core is extracted continuously from the meltwater and forwarded to a gas chromatograph (GC) for high-resolution CH4 measurements. The GC performs a measurement every 3.5 min, hence, a depth resolution of 15 cm is achieved atthe chosen melt rate. An even higher resolution is not necessary due to the low pass filtering of air in ice cores caused by the slow bubble enclosure process and the diffusion of air in firn. Reproducibility of the new method is 3%, thus, for a typical CH4 concentration of 500 ppb during an ice age, this corresponds to an absolute precision of 15 ppb, comparable to traditional analyses on discrete samples. Results of CFA-CH4 measurements on the ice core from Talos Dome (Antarctica) illustrate the much higher temporal resolution of our method compared with established melt-refreeze CH4 measurements and demonstrate the feasibility of the new method.

Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum

Models and palaeoclimate data suggest that the tropical Pacific climate system plays a key part in the mechanisms underlying orbital-scale and abrupt climate change. Atmospheric convection over the western tropical Pacific is a major source of heat and moisture to extratropical regions, and may therefore influence the global climate response to a variety of forcing factors. The response of tropical Pacific convection to changes in global climate boundary conditions, abrupt climate changes and radiative forcing remains uncertain, however. Here we present three absolutely dated oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in northern Borneo that reflect changes in west Pacific warm pool hydrology over the past 27,000 years. Our results suggest that convection over the western tropical Pacific weakened 18,000-20,000 years ago, as tropical Pacific and Antarctic temperatures began to rise during the early stages of deglaciation. Convective activity, as inferred from oxygen isotopes, reached a minimum during Heinrich event 1 (ref. 10), when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was weak, pointing to feedbacks between the strength of the overturning circulation and tropical Pacific hydrology. There is no evidence of the Younger Dryas event in the stalagmite records, however, suggesting that different mechanisms operated during these two abrupt deglacial climate events. During the Holocene epoch, convective activity appears to track changes in spring and autumn insolation, highlighting the sensitivity of tropical Pacific convection to external radiative forcing. Together, these findings demonstrate that the tropical Pacific hydrological cycle is sensitive to high-latitude climate processes in both hemispheres, as well as to external radiative forcing, and that it may have a central role in abrupt climate change events.

Constraining past global tropospheric methane budgets with carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios in ice

Upon closer inspection, the classical view of the synchronous relationship between tropospheric methane mixing ratio and Greenland temperature observed in ice samples reveals clearly discernable variations in the magnitude of this response during the Late Pleistocene (<50kyr BP). During the Holocene this relationship appears to decouple, indicating that other factors have modulated the methane budget in the past 10kyr BP. The delta13CH4 and deltaD-CH4 of tropospheric methane recorded in ice samples provide a useful constraint on the palaeomethane budget estimations. Anticipated changes in palaeoenvironmental conditions are recorded as changes in the isotope signals of the methane precursors, which are then translated into past global delta13CH4 and deltaD-CH4 signatures. We present the first methane budgets for the late glacial period that are constrained by dual stable isotopes. The overall isotope variations indicate that the Younger Dryas (YD) and Preindustrial Holocene have methane that is 13C- and 2H-enriched, relative to Modern. The shift is small for delta13CH4 (approx. 1 per thousand) but greater for deltaD-CH4 (approx. 9 per thousand). The YD delta13CH4-deltaD-CH4 record shows a remarkable relationship between them from 12.15 to 11.52kyr BP. The corresponding C- and H-isotope mass balances possibly indicate fluctuating emissions of thermogenic gas. This delta13CH4-deltaD-CH4 relationship breaks down during the YD-Preboreal transition. In both age cases, catastrophic releases of hydrates with Archaeal isotope signatures can be ruled out. Thermogenic clathrate releases are possible during the YD period, but so are conventional natural gas seepages.

Methane and nitrous oxide in the ice core record

Polar ice cores contain, in trapped air bubbles, an archive of the concentrations of stable atmospheric gases. Of the major non-CO2 greenhouse gases, methane is measured quite routinely, while nitrous oxide is more challenging, with some artefacts occurring in the ice and so far limited interpretation. In the recent past, the ice cores provide the only direct measure of the changes that have occurred during the industrial period; they show that the current concentration of methane in the atmosphere is far outside the range experienced in the last 650,000 years; nitrous oxide is also elevated above its natural levels. There is controversy about whether changes in the pre-industrial Holocene are natural or anthropogenic in origin. Changes in wetland emissions are generally cited as the main cause of the large glacial-interglacial change in methane. However, changing sinks must also be considered, and the impact of possible newly described sources evaluated. Recent isotopic data appear to finally rule out any major impact of clathrate releases on methane at these time-scales. Any explanation must take into account that, at the rapid Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings of the last glacial period, methane rose by around half its glacial-interglacial range in only a few decades. The recent EPICA Dome C (Antarctica) record shows that methane tracked climate over the last 650,000 years, with lower methane concentrations in glacials than interglacials, and lower concentrations in cooler interglacials than in warmer ones. Nitrous oxide also shows Dansgaard-Oeschger and glacial-interglacial periodicity, but the pattern is less clear.

Rapid early development of circumarctic peatlands and atmospheric CH4 and CO2 variations

An analysis of 1516 radiocarbon dates demonstrates that the development of the current circumarctic peatlands began approximately 16.5 thousand years ago (ka) and expanded explosively between 12 and 8 ka in concert with high summer insolation and increasing temperatures. Their rapid development contributed to the sustained peak in CH4 and modest decline of CO2 during the early Holocene and likely contributed to CH4 and CO2 fluctuations during earlier interglacial and interstadial transitions. Given the decreased tempo of peatland initiation in the late Holocene and the transition of many from fens (which generated high levels of CH4) to ombrotrophic bogs, a neoglacial expansion of northern peatlands cannot explain the increase in atmospheric CH4 that occurred after 6 ka.

Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present

Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event.

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic ice cores

The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core enables us to extend existing records of atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) back to 650,000 years before the present. A combined record of CH4 measured along the Dome C and the Vostok ice cores demonstrates, within the resolution of our measurements, that preindustrial concentrations over Antarctica have not exceeded 773 +/- 15 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) during the past 650,000 years. Before 420,000 years ago, when interglacials were cooler, maximum CH4 concentrations were only about 600 ppbv, similar to lower Holocene values. In contrast, the N2O record shows maximum concentrations of 278 +/- 7 ppbv, slightly higher than early Holocene values.

Evidence for large methane releases to the atmosphere from deep-sea gas-hydrate dissociation during the last glacial episode

Past atmospheric methane-concentration oscillations recorded in polar ice cores vary together with rapid global climatic changes during the last glacial episode. In the "clathrate gun hypothesis," massive releases of deep-sea methane from marine gas-hydrate dissociation led to these well known, global, abrupt warmings in the past. If evidence for such releases in the water column exists, however, the mechanism and eventual transfer to the atmosphere has not yet been documented clearly. Here we describe a high-resolution marine-sediment record of stable carbon isotopic changes from the Papua Gulf, off Papua New Guinea, which exhibits two extremely depleted excursions (down to -9 per thousand ) at approximately 39,000 and approximately 55,000 years. Morphological, isotopic, and trace metal evidence dismisses authigenic calcite as the main source of depleted carbon. Massive methane release associated with deep-sea gas-hydrate dissociation is the most likely cause for such large depletions of delta(13)C. The absence of a delta(13)C gradient in the water column during these events implies that the methane rose through the entire water column, reaching the sea-air interface and thus the atmosphere. Foraminiferal delta(18)O composition suggests that the rise of the methane in the water column created an upwelling flow. These inferred emission events suggest that during the last glacial episode, this process was likely widespread, including tropical regions. Thus, the release of methane from the ocean floor into the atmosphere cannot be dismissed as a strong positive feedback in climate dynamics processes.

Siberian Peatlands a Net Carbon Sink and Global Methane Source Since the Early Holocene

Interpolar methane gradient (IPG) data from ice cores suggest the "switching on" of a major Northern Hemisphere methane source in the early Holocene. Extensive data from Russia's West Siberian Lowland show (i) explosive, widespread peatland establishment between 11.5 and 9 thousand years ago, predating comparable development in North America and synchronous with increased atmospheric methane concentrations and IPGs, (ii) larger carbon stocks than previously thought (70.2 Petagrams, up to approximately 26% of all terrestrial carbon accumulated since the Last Glacial Maximum), and (iii) little evidence for catastrophic oxidation, suggesting the region represents a long-term carbon dioxide sink and global methane source since the early Holocene.

El Niño-like pattern in ice age tropical Pacific sea surface temperature

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the cold tongue of the eastern equatorial Pacific exert powerful controls on global atmospheric circulation patterns. We examined climate variability in this region from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, using a SST record reconstructed from magnesium/calcium ratios in foraminifera from sea-floor sediments near the Galápagos Islands. Cold-tongue SST varied coherently with precession-induced changes in seasonality during the past 30,000 years. Observed LGM cooling of just 1.2 degrees C implies a relaxation of tropical temperature gradients, weakened Hadley and Walker circulation, southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a persistent El Niño-like pattern in the tropical Pacific. This is contrasted with mid-Holocene cooling suggestive of a La Niña-like pattern with enhanced SST gradients and strengthened trade winds. Our results support a potent role for altered tropical Pacific SST gradients in global climate variations.

Have sudden large releases of methane from geological reservoirs occurred since the Last Glacial Maximum, and could such releases occur again?

Methane emissions from geological reservoirs may have played a major role in the sudden events terminating glaciation, both at the start of the Bølling/Allerød and also at the end of the Younger Dryas. These reservoirs include Arctic methane hydrates and also methane hydrate stored in offshore marine sediments in tropical and temperate latitudes. Emissions from hydrate stores may have resonated with tropical wetland emissions, each reinforcing the other. Because methane is such a powerful greenhouse gas, much smaller emissions of methane, compared with carbon dioxide, are required in order to have the same short-term impact by climate forcing. The methane-linked hypothesis has much geological support from sea-floor evidence of emission. However, Greenland ice-core records have been interpreted as showing methane as a consequential factor, rather than the leader, of change. This interpretation can be challenged on the grounds that temperature gradients in Greenland ice record local changes and local timing of a step-like shift in weather fronts, while methane concentrations record changes on a hemispheric and global scale. There are large remaining hydrate reservoirs in the Arctic and in shelf sediments globally, and there is substantial risk of further emissions.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, obtained from the Dome Concordia, Antarctica, ice core, reveals that an increase of 76 parts per million by volume occurred over a period of 6000 years in four clearly distinguishable intervals. The close correlation between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature indicates that the Southern Ocean played an important role in causing the CO2 increase. However, the similarity of changes in CO2 concentration and variations of atmospheric methane concentration suggests that processes in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere, where the main sources for methane are located, also had substantial effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

The global methane cycle: isotopes and mixing ratios, sources and sinks

A review of the global cycle of methane is presented with emphasis on its isotopic composition. The history of methane mixing ratios, reconstructed from measurements of air trapped in ice-cores is described. The methane record now extends back to 420 kyr ago in the case of the Vostok ice cores from Antarctica. The trends in mixing ratios and in delta13C values are reported for the two Hemispheres. The increase of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 200 years, and by 1% per year since 1978, reaching 1.7 ppmv in 1990 is underlined. The various methane sources are presented. Indeed the authors describe the methane emissions by bacterial activity under anaerobic conditions in wet environments (wetlands, bogs, tundra, rice paddies), in ruminant stomachs and termite guts, and that originating from fossil carbon sources, such as biomass burning, coal mining, industrial losses, automobile exhaust, sea floor vent, and volcanic emissions. Furthermore, the main sinks of methane in the troposphere, soils or waters via oxidation are also reported, and the corresponding kinetic isotope effects.

Variations in atmospheric N2O concentration during abrupt climatic changes

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas that is presently increasing at a rate of 0.25 percent per year. Records measured along two ice cores from Summit in Central Greenland provide information about variations in atmospheric N2O concentration in the past. The record covering the past millennium reduces the uncertainty regarding the preindustrial concentration. Records covering the last glacial-interglacial transition and a fast climatic change during the last ice age show that the N2O concentration changed in parallel with fast temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere. This provides important information about the response of the environment to global climatic changes.