Abrupt changes in North American climate during early Holocene times

Machine-learning based reconstructions of primary and secondary climate variables from North American and European fossil pollen data

We test several quantitative algorithms as palaeoclimate reconstruction tools for North American and European fossil pollen data, using both classical methods and newer machine-learning approaches based on regression tree ensembles and artificial neural networks. We focus on the reconstruction of secondary climate variables (here, January temperature and annual water balance), as their comparatively small ecological influence compared to the primary variable (July temperature) presents special challenges to palaeo-reconstructions. We test the pollen-climate models using a novel and comprehensive cross-validation approach, running a series of h-block cross-validations using h values of 100-1500 km. Our study illustrates major benefits of this variable h-block cross-validation scheme, as the effect of spatial autocorrelation is minimized, while the cross-validations with increasing h values can reveal instabilities in the calibration model and approximate challenges faced in palaeo-reconstructions with poor modern analogues. We achieve well-performing calibration models for both primary and secondary climate variables, with boosted regression trees providing the overall most robust performance, while the palaeoclimate reconstructions from fossil datasets show major independent features for the primary and secondary variables. Our results suggest that with careful variable selection and consideration of ecological processes, robust reconstruction of both primary and secondary climate variables is possible.

Patterns and drivers of Holocene vegetational change near the prairie-forest ecotone in Minnesota: revisiting McAndrews' transect

Holocene vegetational dynamics along the prairie-forest border of Minnesota were first documented in McAndrews' classic work. Despite numerous subsequent paleo-studies, a number of questions remain unanswered about the vegetation history of the region. Here, pollen, stable-isotope, mineral, and charcoal data are described from three lakes near McAndrews' sites. These data were compared with other paleoenvironmental records to reconstruct vegetation, aridity, and fire. The climate was relatively wet with increasing summer temperatures before approximately 8000 yr before present (BP). The rates of changes were asymmetric for the onset and termination of middle-Holocene aridity, with an abrupt increase at approximately 8000 yr BP and a gradual, but variable, decline from approximately 7800 to 4000 yr BP. Early-Holocene coniferous forests changed to mixed-grass prairie without an intervening period of tallgrass prairie or deciduous forest, whereas the retreat of prairie was characterized by transitions from mixed-grass to tallgrass prairie to deciduous forest and finally to coniferous forest. Within the middle Holocene, the composition and structures of grass-dominated vegetation varied both temporally and spatially. Fire primarily responded to changes in climate and fuel loads. Vegetation was more strongly influenced by climatic changes than by fire-regime shifts.

Structure of the 8200-year cold event revealed by a speleothem trace element record

Abrupt first-order shifts in strontium and phosphorus concentrations in stalagmite calcite deposited in western Ireland during the 8200-year event (the major cooling episode 8200 years before the present) are interpreted as responses to a drier climate lasting about 37 years. Both shifts are centered on 8330 +/- 80 years before the present, coinciding with a large oxygen isotope anomaly and a change in the calcite petrography. In this very high resolution (monthly) record, antipathetic second-order oscillations in phosphorus and strontium reveal decreased growth rates and increased rainfall seasonality. Growth rate variations within the event reveal a two-pronged structure consistent with recent model simulations.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem delta 18O record from SW Ireland

Evaluating the significance of Holocene submillennial delta18O variability in the Greenland ice cores is crucial for understanding how natural climate oscillations may modulate future anthropogenic warming. A high-resolution oxygen isotope record from a speleothem in southwestern Ireland provides evidence for centennial-scale delta18O variations that correlate with subtle delta18O changes in the Greenland ice cores, indicating regionally coherent variability in the early Holocene. Evidence for previously undetected early Holocene cooling events is presented, but mid- to late-Holocene ice rafting in the North Atlantic appears to have had little impact on delta18O at this ocean margin site.

Paleoclimate and Amerindians: evidence from stable isotopes and atmospheric circulation

Two Amerindian demographic shifts are attributed to climate change in the northwest plains of North America: at approximately 11,000 calendar years before present (yr BP), Amerindian culture apparently split into foothills-mountains vs. plains biomes; and from 8,000-5,000 yr BP, scarce archaeological sites on the open plains suggest emigration during xeric "Altithermal" conditions. We reconstructed paleoclimates from stable isotopes in prehistoric bison bone and relations between weather and fractions of C(4) plants in forage. Further, we developed a climate-change model that synthesized stable isotope, existing qualitative evidence (e.g., palynological, erosional), and global climate mechanisms affecting this midlatitude region. Our isotope data indicate significant warming from approximately 12,400 to 11,900 yr BP, supporting climate-driven cultural separation. However, isotope evidence of apparently wet, warm conditions at 7,300 yr BP refutes emigration to avoid xeric conditions. Scarcity of archaeological sites is best explained by rapid climate fluctuations after catastrophic draining of the Laurentide Lakes, which disrupted North Atlantic Deep Water production and subsequently altered monsoonal inputs to the open plains.

Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.