Relative influences of atmospheric chemistry and transport on Arctic ozone trends

Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.

Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions

The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr-1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr-1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.

Quantifying Arctic lower stratospheric ozone sources in winter and spring

The dynamical and chemical characteristics of unusually low Arctic ozone events in 2005 and 2011 have been well-studied. However, the quantitative identification of Arctic ozone sources is lacking. Here, we use tagged ozone tracers in a numerical simulation to quantify the contributions to Arctic lower stratospheric ozone (ARCLS_O3) at diverse latitudes in winter and spring from 2005-2011. We demonstrate that the northern mid-latitudinal stratosphere steadily contributes approximately half of ARCLS_O3. The absolute contributions during February have evident variations, which are smaller in cold years (151.3 ± 7.0 Dobson units (DU) in 2005 and 139.0 ± 7.4 DU in 2011) and greater in warm years (182.6 ± 7.3 DU in 2006 and 164.6 ± 7.4 DU in 2009). The tropical stratosphere is also an important source. During February, its absolute contributions are 66.5 ± 11.5 DU (2005), 73.1 ± 4.7 DU (2011), 146.0 ± 9.0 DU (2006), and 153.7 ± 7.0 DU (2009). Before and after stratospheric warming, variations in the tropical components of ARCLS_O3 (51.8 DU in 2006 and 77.0 DU in 2009) are significantly larger than those in the mid-latitudinal components (17.6 DU in 2006 and 18.1 DU in 2009). These results imply that although the mid-latitudinal components of ARCLS_O3 are larger, the tropical components control stratospheric temperature-induced ARCLS_O3 anomalies in winter and spring.

Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993-2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90°N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 1/3 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.

Fundamental differences between Arctic and Antarctic ozone depletion

Antarctic ozone depletion is associated with enhanced chlorine from anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons and heterogeneous chemistry under cold conditions. The deep Antarctic "hole" contrasts with the generally weaker depletions observed in the warmer Arctic. An unusually cold Arctic stratospheric season occurred in 2011, raising the question of how the Arctic ozone chemistry in that year compares with others. We show that the averaged depletions near 20 km across the cold part of each pole are deeper in Antarctica than in the Arctic for all years, although 2011 Arctic values do rival those seen in less-depleted years in Antarctica. We focus not only on averages but also on extremes, to address whether or not Arctic ozone depletion can be as extreme as that observed in the Antarctic. This information provides unique insights into the contrasts between Arctic and Antarctic ozone chemistry. We show that extreme Antarctic ozone minima fall to or below 0.1 parts per million by volume (ppmv) at 18 and 20 km (about 70 and 50 mbar) whereas the lowest Arctic ozone values are about 0.5 ppmv at these altitudes. At a higher altitude of 24 km (30-mbar level), no Arctic data below about 2 ppmv have been observed, including in 2011, in contrast to values more than an order of magnitude lower in Antarctica. The data show that the lowest ozone values are associated with temperatures below -80 °C to -85 °C depending upon altitude, and are closely associated with reduced gaseous nitric acid concentrations due to uptake and/or sedimentation in polar stratospheric cloud particles.

The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

Quantifying denitrification and its effect on ozone recovery

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite observations indicate that extensive denitrification without significant dehydration currently occurs only in the Antarctic during mid to late June. The fact that denitrification occurs in a relatively warm month in the Antarctic raises concern about the likelihood of its occurrence and associated effects on ozone recovery in a colder and possibly more humid future Arctic lower stratosphere. Polar stratospheric cloud lifetimes required for Arctic denitrification to occur in the future are presented and contrasted against the current Antarctic cloud lifetimes. Model calculations show that widespread severe denitrification could enhance future Arctic ozone loss by up to 30%.

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years, these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability, and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres, coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system, and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue, they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century.