Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

Maximizing regional biodiversity requires a mosaic of protection levels

Protected areas are the flagship management tools to secure biodiversity from anthropogenic impacts. However, the extent to which adjacent areas with distinct protection levels host different species numbers and compositions remains uncertain. Here, using reef fishes, European alpine plants, and North American birds, we show that the composition of species in adjacent Strictly Protected, Restricted, and Non-Protected areas is highly dissimilar, whereas the number of species is similar, after controlling for environmental conditions, sample size, and rarity. We find that between 12% and 15% of species are only recorded in Non-Protected areas, suggesting that a non-negligible part of regional biodiversity occurs where human activities are less regulated. For imperiled species, the proportion only recorded in Strictly Protected areas reaches 58% for fishes, 11% for birds, and 7% for plants, highlighting the fundamental and unique role of protected areas and their environmental conditions in biodiversity conservation.

This study shows that the dissimilarity in species composition between sites with different levels of protection is consistently high, suggesting that adjacent and connected areas with different protection levels host very dissimilar species assemblages.

Evolutionary dynamics in the Anthropocene: Life history and intensity of human contact shape antipredator responses

Humans profoundly impact landscapes, ecosystems, and animal behavior. In many cases, animals living near humans become tolerant of them and reduce antipredator responses. Yet, we still lack an understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics behind these shifts in traits that affect animal survival. Here, we used a phylogenetic meta-analysis to determine how the mean and variability in antipredator responses change as a function of the number of generations spent in contact with humans under 3 different contexts: urbanization, captivity, and domestication. We found that any contact with humans leads to a rapid reduction in mean antipredator responses as expected. Notably, the variance among individuals over time observed a short-term increase followed by a gradual decrease, significant for domesticated animals. This implies that intense human contact immediately releases animals from predation pressure and then imposes strong anthropogenic selection on traits. In addition, our results reveal that the loss of antipredator traits due to urbanization is similar to that of domestication but occurs 3 times more slowly. Furthermore, the rapid disappearance of antipredator traits was associated with 2 main life-history traits: foraging guild and whether the species was solitary or gregarious (i.e., group-living). For domesticated animals, this decrease in antipredator behavior was stronger for herbivores than for omnivores or carnivores and for solitary than for gregarious species. By contrast, the decrease in antipredator traits was stronger for gregarious, urbanized species, although this result is based mostly on birds. Our study offers 2 major insights on evolution in the Anthropocene: (1) changes in traits occur rapidly even under unintentional human “interventions” (i.e., urbanization) and (2) there are similarities between the selection pressures exerted by domestication and by urbanization. In all, such changes could affect animal survival in a predator-rich world, but through understanding evolutionary dynamics, we can better predict when and how exposure to humans modify these fitness-related traits.

This study reveals that the evolutionary dynamics of antipredator responses of urbanized animals are similar to those of domestication but at a rate 3 times slower. Hence, contact with humans has profound impacts on the capacity of populations to respond to predation. Both foraging guilds and social level of species have an impact on the speed of the decrease of fear-related traits over time.

Harmonizing hybridization dissonance in conservation

A dramatic increase in the hybridization between historically allopatric species has been induced by human activities. However, the notion of hybridization seems to lack consistency in two respects. On the one hand, it is inconsistent with the biological species concept, which does not allow for interbreeding between species, and on the other hand, it is considered either as an evolutionary process leading to the emergence of new biodiversity or as a cause of biodiversity loss, with conservation implications. In the first case, we argue that conservation biology should avoid the discussion around the species concept and delimit priorities of conservation units based on the impact on biodiversity if taxa are lost. In the second case, we show that this is not a paradox but an intrinsic property of hybridization, which should be considered in conservation programmes. We propose a novel view of conservation guidelines, in which human-induced hybridization may also be a tool to enhance the likelihood of adaptation to changing environmental conditions or to increase the genetic diversity of taxa affected by inbreeding depression. The conservation guidelines presented here represent a guide for the development of programmes aimed at protecting biodiversity as a dynamic evolutionary system.

Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change

The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.

Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change

The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.

Exploring variability in environmental impact risk from human activities across aquatic ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems are under severe pressure. Human activities introduce an array of pressures that impact ecosystems and their components. In this study we focus on the aquatic domains of fresh, coastal and marine waters, including rivers, lakes and riparian habitats to transitional, coastal as well as shelf and oceanic habitats. In an environmental risk assessment approach, we identified impact chains that link 45 human activities through 31 pressures to 82 ecosystem components. In this linkage framework >22,000 activity-pressure-ecosystem component interactions were found across seven European case studies. We identified the environmental impact risk posed by each impact chain by first categorically weighting the interactions according to five criteria: spatial extent, dispersal potential, frequency of interaction, persistence of pressure and severity of the interaction, where extent, dispersal, frequency and persistence account for the exposure to risk (spatial and temporal), and the severity accounts for the consequence of the risk. After assigning a numerical score to each risk criterion, we came up with an overall environmental impact risk score for each impact chain. This risk score was analysed in terms of (1) the activities and pressures that introduce the greatest risk to European aquatic domains, and (2) the aquatic ecosystem components and realms that are at greatest risk from human activities. Activities related to energy production were relevant across the aquatic domains. Fishing was highly relevant in marine and environmental engineering in fresh waters. Chemical and physical pressures introduced the greatest risk to the aquatic realms. Ecosystem components that can be seen as ecotones between different ecosystems had high impact risk. We show how this information can be used in informing management on trade-offs in freshwater, coastal and marine resource use and aid decision-making.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ecological Conditions and Its Response to Natural Conditions and Human Activities during 1990⁻2010 in the Yangtze River Delta, China

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, including Shanghai City and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past three decades, the region has experienced an unprecedented process of rapid and massive urbanization, which has dramatically altered the landscape and detrimentally affected the ecological environments in the region. In this paper, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of ecological conditions (Eco_C) via a synthetic index with analytic hierarchy processes in the YRD during 1990⁻2010. The relative contributions of influencing factors, including two natural conditions (i.e., elevation (Elev) and land-sea gradient (Dis_coa)), three indicators of human activities (i.e., urbanization rate (Urb_rate), per capita GDP (Per_gdp), the percentage of secondary and tertiary industry employment (Per_ind)), to the total variance of regional Eco_C were also investigated. The results showed that: (1) The Eco_C over YRD region was "Moderately High", which was better than the national average and demonstrated obvious spatial variations between south and north. There existed fluctuations and an overall increasing trend for Eco_C during the study period, with 20% of the area being deteriorated and 40% being improved. (2) The areas with elevation below 10 m was relatively poor in Eco_C, while the regions above 1000 m showed the best Eco_C and had the most obvious changes (9.33%) during the study period. (3) The selected five influencing factors could explain 91.0⁻94.4% of the Eco_C spatial variability. Elevation was the dominant factor for about 42.4⁻52.9%, while urbanization rate and per capita GDP were about 32.5% and 9.3%.

Global land change from 1982 to 2016

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth's energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and-in turn-affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services1-4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years' worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982-2016. We show that-contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally5-tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (-3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system. The dataset we developed may be used to improve the modelling of land-use changes, biogeochemical cycles and vegetation-climate interactions to advance our understanding of global environmental change1-4,6.

Influence of human activities and organic matters on occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in marine sediment core: A case study in the Southern Yellow Sea, China

The Southern Yellow Sea (SYS) is an important reservoir of anthropogenic organic contaminants, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). To reconstruct the historical records of PBDEs and examine their relationships with the human activities and organic matters, a²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment core was collected from the central mud area in the SYS. The concentrations of tri-to hepta-BDEs (∑₇PBDEs) and BDE-209 ranged from 9.8 to 99.8 pg g^-1 d.w. and from 12.1 to 855.4 pg g^-1 d.w., respectively, both displaying the increasing trends from the bottom to the surface. More importantly, there was a faster increase for PBDEs since the 1990s, especially for BDE-209, which responded well with the rapid economic growth, and the increases of urbanization and industrialization in the local areas of the SYS. The analogously vertical patterns and significant relationships between PBDEs and total organic carbon (TOC) implied the TOC-dependent deposition of PBDEs in the core. Furthermore, multiple biomarker-based proxies of terrestrial organic matter (TOM) and marine organic matter (MOM) were introduced to systematically investigate the different effects of TOM and MOM on PBDE deposition in the SYS. The similarly down-core profiles and significant correlations were found between PBDEs and the MOM proxies (sum of rassicasterol, dinosterol and C₃₇ alkenones (∑A + B + D) and marine TOC) as well as the branched and isoprenoid tetraether (BIT), but not for TOM proxies (∑C₂₇+C₂₉+C₃₁n-alkanes, terrestrial and marine biomarker ratio (TMBR) and terrestrial TOC), indicating that MOM was an important factor driving PBDE deposition in the sediment core from the SYS.

A unified classification of alien species based on the magnitude of their environmental impacts

We present a method for categorising and comparing alien or invasive species in terms of how damaging they are to the environment, that can be applied across all taxa, scales, and impact metrics.

Species moved by human activities beyond the limits of their native geographic ranges into areas in which they do not naturally occur (termed aliens) can cause a broad range of significant changes to recipient ecosystems; however, their impacts vary greatly across species and the ecosystems into which they are introduced. There is therefore a critical need for a standardised method to evaluate, compare, and eventually predict the magnitudes of these different impacts. Here, we propose a straightforward system for classifying alien species according to the magnitude of their environmental impacts, based on the mechanisms of impact used to code species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Invasive Species Database, which are presented here for the first time. The classification system uses five semi-quantitative scenarios describing impacts under each mechanism to assign species to different levels of impact—ranging from Minimal to Massive—with assignment corresponding to the highest level of deleterious impact associated with any of the mechanisms. The scheme also includes categories for species that are Not Evaluated, have No Alien Population, or are Data Deficient, and a method for assigning uncertainty to all the classifications. We show how this classification system is applicable at different levels of ecological complexity and different spatial and temporal scales, and embraces existing impact metrics. In fact, the scheme is analogous to the already widely adopted and accepted Red List approach to categorising extinction risk, and so could conceivably be readily integrated with existing practices and policies in many regions.

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.

North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the decades surrounding 2030, 2060, and 2090. Prominent in the projections were (1) expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico, (2) expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico, (3) stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA, and (4) northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates. Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal. Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success.

Accumulation and partitioning of seven trace metals in mangroves and sediment cores from three estuarine wetlands of Hainan Island, China

Trace metals in mangrove tissues (leaf, branch, root and fruit) of nine species and sediments of ten cores collected in 2008 from Dongzhai Harbor, Sanya Bay and Yalong Bay, Hainan Island, were analyzed. The average concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Hg and As in surface sediments were 14.8, 24.1, 57.9, 0.17, 29.6, 0.08 and 9.7 μg g(-1), whereas those in mangrove tissues were 2.8, 1.4, 8.7, 0.03, 1.1, 0.03, and 0.2 μg g(-1), respectively. Compared to those from other typical mangrove wetlands of the world, the metal levels in Hainan were at low- to median-levels, which is consistent with the fact that Hainan Island is still in low exploitation and its mangroves suffer little impact from human activities. Metal concentrations among different tissues of mangroves were different. In general, Zn and Cu were enriched in fruit, Hg was enriched in leaf, Pb, Cd and Cr were enriched in branch, and As was enriched in root. The cycle of trace metals in mangrove species were estimated. The biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) followed the sequence of Hg (0.43)>Cu (0.27)>Cd (0.22)>Zn (0.17)>Pb (0.07)>Cr (0.06)>As (0.02).

Boomers' prospective needs for senior centers and related services: a survey of persons 50-59

The future service needs of baby boomers are unclear. A survey addressing work/retirement, family, civic engagement, health, caregiving, leisure, and perceptions of senior services was mailed to 800 addresses randomly selected from a upper Midwestern county voter registration list. The response rate was 28%. Fifty-three percent of the respondents (N = 225) intended to work and increase civic engagement. They expected more time for hobbies and friends, and to travel more. Family will continue to be their highest priority. These findings will be useful to service providers who are invested in providing services that are attractive to boomers.

[Dynamic analysis of ecological footprint of Dongying City based on a modified model]

Taking the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water-heat condition into consideration, the traditional ecological footprint (EF) model was modified with net primary productivity (NPP). In the meanwhile, water resource EF was calculated to complement the deficiency of water EF account which only included water's fishing function. The EF dynamics of Dongying City from 1996 to 2003 was analyzed by using the modified model. Based on traditional model, the EF of Dongying City in 1996-2003 increased from 1.766 hm2 to 2.644 hm2, and the ecological capacity (EC) decreased from 0.889 hm2 to 0.813 hm2; while based on the modified model, the EF increased from 2.819 hm2 to 3.776 hm2, and the EC decreased from 1.935 hm2 to 1.865 hm2. Comparing with that from traditional model, the ecological pressure calculated by the modified model was lesser, which suggested that to increase the utilization of water resource would alleviate the ecological pressure on the region. The modified EF model was more precise to reflect the natural resource utilization of Dongying City.

Enhancements, easy shortcuts, and the richness of human activities

One argument that is frequently invoked against the technological enhancement of human functioning is that it is morally suspect, or even wrong, to take an easy shortcut. Some things that usually take effort, endurance or struggle can come easily with the use of an enhancer. This paper analyses the various arguments that circle round the idea that enhancement of human functioning is problematic because of the 'easy shortcut' that it offers. It discusses the concern that quick fixes lead to corrosion of character and the idea that suffering, pain, hard work and effort are essential for real and worthy achievements, and argues that these views are largely mistaken. Next, the paper argues that the core worry about taking an easy shortcut is that it makes us lose sight of the complexities of our means and ends; in other words, the argument warns against reducing the richness of human activities. A vocabulary of 'practices', 'internal goods' and 'focal engagement' will be used to articulate this argument further. The conclusion is that the easy shortcut argument has no general validity as an argument against enhancement 'as such'. The paper urges us, however, to evaluate enhancement technologies not only in terms of their efficiency in reaching certain goals but also in terms of their contribution to intrinsically worthwhile human activities. It can point out some of the caveats, as well as the opportunities, of the use of enhancement technologies.

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.

The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behaviour into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. In contrast, there is increasing evidence that the timing of many human activities, ranging from communication to entertainment and work patterns, follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. Here I show that the bursty nature of human behaviour is a consequence of a decision-based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, with most tasks being rapidly executed, whereas a few experience very long waiting times. In contrast, random or priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform inter-event statistics. These finding have important implications, ranging from resource management to service allocation, in both communications and retail.

[Dynamics of ecological footprints of agricultural region in Hexi oasis of Gansu Province]

This paper studied the dynamics of ecological footprints (EF), degree of sustainable development and its tendency of Hexi oasis agricultural region in Gansu. The results showed that the EF displayed an increasing trend from 0.426 hm2 to 2.158 hm2 in 1949-2000, which was 0.693 hm2 in 1949-1970, 1.029 hm2 in 1975-1980, and 2.288 hm2 in 1985-2000. The ecological capacity (EC) was also increased from 0.550 hm2 in 1949 to 1.762 hm2 in 2000. Comparing with EF, the EC increased at low speed, which reached 0.782 hm2 in 1949-1970 and 1.715 hm2 in 1975-2000. Meanwhile, the sustainable development of Hexi region maintained ecological remainder during 1949-1975. However, it emerged ecological deficit in 1980, and resumed in 1985. The sustainable development of Hexi region has been successive ecological deficit since 1991. The degree was keeping negative increment at acceleration, and got to -0258 hm2 in 1991-2000. These results showed that the regional economic development of Hexi region was far away from sustainable development, and was in no-sustainable state.

Is humanity sustainable?

The principles and tenets of management require action to avoid sustained abnormal/pathological conditions. For the sustainability of interactive systems, each system should fall within its normal range of natural variation. This applies to individuals (as for fevers and hypertension, in medicine), populations (e.g. outbreaks of crop pests in agriculture), species (e.g. the rarity of endangerment in conservation) and ecosystems (e.g. abnormally low productivity or diversity in 'ecosystem-based management'). In this paper, we report tests of the hypothesis that the human species is ecologically normal. We reject the hypothesis for almost all of the cases we tested. Our species rarely falls within statistical confidence limits that envelop the central tendencies in variation among other species. For example, our population size, CO(2) production, energy use, biomass consumption and geographical range size differ from those of other species by orders of magnitude. We argue that other measures should be tested in a similar fashion to assess the prevalence of such differences and their practical implications.