Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change

Tracing the impacts of recent rapid sea ice changes and the A68 megaberg on the surface freshwater balance of the Weddell and Scotia Seas

The Southern Ocean upper-layer freshwater balance exerts a global climatic influence by modulating density stratification and biological productivity, and hence the exchange of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean interior. It is thus important to understand and quantify the time-varying freshwater inputs, which is challenging from measurements of salinity alone. Here we use seawater oxygen isotopes from samples collected between 2016 and 2021 along a transect spanning the Scotia and northern Weddell Seas to separate the freshwater contributions from sea ice and meteoric sources. The unprecedented retreat of sea ice in 2016 is evidenced as a strong increase in sea ice melt across the northern Weddell Sea, with surface values increasing approximately two percentage points between 2016 and 2018 and column inventories increasing approximately 1 to 2 m. Surface meteoric water concentrations exceeded 4% in early 2021 close to South Georgia due to meltwater from the A68 megaberg; smaller icebergs may influence meteoric water at other times also. Both these inputs highlight the importance of a changing cryosphere for upper-ocean freshening; potential future sea ice retreats and increases in iceberg calving would enhance the impacts of these freshwater sources on the ocean and climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Decadal Changes in Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Aquifers from Radar Scatterometer

Surface meltwater runoff is believed to be the main cause of the alarming mass loss in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS); however, recent research has shown that a large amount of meltwater is not directly drained or refrozen but stored in the form of firn aquifers (FAs) in the interior of the GrIS. Monitoring the changes in FAs over the GrIS is of great importance to evaluate the stability and mass balance of the ice sheet. This is challenging because FAs are not visible on the surface and the direct measurements are lacking. A new method is proposed to map FAs during the 2010–2020 period by using the C-band Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data based on the Random Forests classification algorithm with the aid of measurements from the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program. Melt days (MD), melt intensity (MI), and winter mean backscatter (WM) parameters derived from the ASCAT data are used as the input vectors for the Random Forests classification algorithm. The accuracy of the classification model is assessed by ten-fold cross-validation, and the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient are 97.49% and 0.72 respectively. The results show that FAs reached the maximum in 2015, and the accumulative area of FAs from 2010 to 2020 is 56,477 km2, which is 3.3% of the GrIS area. This study provides a way to investigate the long-term dynamics in FAs which have great significance for understanding the state of subsurface firn and subglacial hydrological systems.

Velocity Anomaly of Campbell Glacier, East Antarctica, Observed by Double-Differential Interferometric SAR and Ice Penetrating Radar

Regional changes in the flow velocity of Antarctic glaciers can affect the ice sheet mass balance and formation of surface crevasses. The velocity anomaly of a glacier can be detected using the Double-Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DDInSAR) technique that removes the constant displacement in two Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) images at different times and shows only the temporally variable displacement. In this study, two circular-shaped ice-velocity anomalies in Campbell Glacier, East Antarctica, were analyzed by using 13 DDInSAR images generated from COSMO-SkyMED one-day tandem DInSAR images in 2010–2011. The topography of the ice surface and ice bed were obtained from the helicopter-borne Ice Penetrating Radar (IPR) surveys in 2016–2017. Denoted as A and B, the velocity anomalies were in circular shapes with radii of ~800 m, located 14.7 km (A) and 11.3 km (B) upstream from the grounding line of the Campbell Glacier. Velocity anomalies were up to ~1 cm/day for A and ~5 cm/day for B. To investigate the cause of the two velocity anomalies, the ice surface and bed profiles derived from the IPR survey crossing the anomalies were analyzed. The two anomalies lay over a bed hill along the glacial valley where stick-slip and pressure melting can occur, resulting in temporal variation of ice velocity. The bright radar reflection and flat hydraulic head at the ice bed of A observed in the IPR-derived radargram strongly suggested the existence of basal water in a form of reservoir or film, which caused smaller friction and the reduced variation of stick-slip motion compared to B. Crevasses began to appear at B due to tensile stress at the top of the hill and the fast flow downstream. The sporadic shift of the location of anomalies suggests complex pressure melting and transportation of the basal water over the bed hill.

Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21^st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21^st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8  ±  7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.

The potential contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise in the future is known to be substantial. Here, the authors undertake new modelling showing that the Greenland Ice Sheet sea level rise contribution is 7.9 cm more using the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario compared to CMIP5 using multiple RCP8.5 simulations.

Accuracy Evaluation of Four Greenland Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and Assessment of River Network Extraction

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of Greenland provide the basic data for studying the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), but little research quantitatively evaluates and compares the accuracy of various Greenland DEMs. This study uses IceBridge elevation data to evaluate the accuracies of the the Greenland Ice Map Project (GIMP)1 DEM, GIMP2 DEM, TanDEM-X, and ArcticDEM in their corresponding time ranges. This study also analyzes the impact of DEM accuracy and resolution on the accuracy of river network extraction. The results show that (1) within the time range covered by each DEM, TanDEM-X with an RMSE of 5.60 m has higher accuracy than the other DEMs in terms of absolute height accuracy, while GIMP1 has the lowest accuracy among the four Greenland DEMs, with an RMSE of 14.34 m. (2) Greenland DEMs are affected by regional errors and interannual changes. The accuracy in areas with elevations above 2000 m is higher than that in areas with elevations below 2000 m, and better accuracy is observed in the north than in the south. The stability of the ArcticDEM product is higher than those of the other three DEM products, and its RMSE standard deviation over multiple years is only 0.14 m. Therefore, the errors caused by the applications of DEMs with longer time spans are smaller. GIMP1 performs in an opposite manner, with a standard deviation of 2.39 m. (3) The river network extracted from TanDEM-X is close to the real river network digitized from remote sensing images, with an accuracy of 50.78%. The river network extracted from GIMP1 exhibits the largest errors, with an accuracy of only 8.83%. This study calculates and compares the accuracy of four Greenland DEMs and indicates that TanDEM-X has the highest accuracy, adding quantitative studies on the accuracy evaluation of various Greenland DEMs. This study also compares the results of different DEM river network extractions, verifies the impact of DEM accuracy on the accuracy of the river network extraction results, and provides an explorable direction for the hydrological analysis of Greenland as a whole.

Spatio-temporal changes and prediction of Amery ice shelf, east Antarctica: A remote sensing and statistics-based approach

The Amery ice shelf (AIS) dynamics and mass balance play key role to decipher changes in the global climate scenario. The spatio-temporal changes in morphology of the AIS were studied into a number of transects at 5 km uniform intervals using multi-dated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data (2001-2016) of the austral summer months (January-March). Past ice shelf extents have been reconstructed and future ice shelf extents were estimated for 5- and 10-year time periods. The rate changes of AIS extent were estimated using the linear regression analysis and cross-validated with the coefficient of determination (R²) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) methods. Further, the changes in shelf extent were linked to prevailing factors viz. mass changes, Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, and ocean-air temperatures. The study reveals that the AIS extent has been prograded at the rate of 994 m/year with an average 14.5 km increase in the areal extents during 2001-2016, as compared to the year 2001, whereas, the maximum advancement in ice shelf extent was recorded during the 2006-2016 period. Based on the linear regression analysis, the predicted ice shelf extents (i.e., the summer 2021 and 2016) show progradation in all the transects. About 52% of transects exhibit ±200 m RMSE values, indicating better agreement between the estimated and satellite-based ice-shelf position. The recent changes (2017-2019) observed in the ice shelf are cross validated with predicted ice self-extent rates. The eastern part of Mackenzie Bay to Ingrid Christensen coast recorded advancement in the ice shelf extents and mass which is the feedback of positive SAM along with a decrease in the temperatures (air temperature and sea surface temperature). The present study demonstrates that the combined use of satellite imagery and statistical techniques can be useful in quantifying and predicting ice shelf morphological variability.

Automated Mapping of Antarctic Supraglacial Lakes Using a Machine Learning Approach

Supraglacial lakes can have considerable impact on ice sheet mass balance and global sea-level-rise through ice shelf fracturing and subsequent glacier speedup. In Antarctica, the distribution and temporal development of supraglacial lakes as well as their potential contribution to increased ice mass loss remains largely unknown, requiring a detailed mapping of the Antarctic surface hydrological network. In this study, we employ a Machine Learning algorithm trained on Sentinel-2 and auxiliary TanDEM-X topographic data for automated mapping of Antarctic supraglacial lakes. To ensure the spatio-temporal transferability of our method, a Random Forest was trained on 14 training regions and applied over eight spatially independent test regions distributed across the whole Antarctic continent. In addition, we employed our workflow for large-scale application over Amery Ice Shelf where we calculated interannual supraglacial lake dynamics between 2017 and 2020 at full ice shelf coverage. To validate our supraglacial lake detection algorithm, we randomly created point samples over our classification results and compared them to Sentinel-2 imagery. The point comparisons were evaluated using a confusion matrix for calculation of selected accuracy metrics. Our analysis revealed wide-spread supraglacial lake occurrence in all three Antarctic regions. For the first time, we identified supraglacial meltwater features on Abbott, Hull and Cosgrove Ice Shelves in West Antarctica as well as for the entire Amery Ice Shelf for years 2017–2020. Over Amery Ice Shelf, maximum lake extent varied strongly between the years with the 2019 melt season characterized by the largest areal coverage of supraglacial lakes (~763 km2). The accuracy assessment over the test regions revealed an average Kappa coefficient of 0.86 where the largest value of Kappa reached 0.98 over George VI Ice Shelf. Future developments will involve the generation of circum-Antarctic supraglacial lake mapping products as well as their use for further methodological developments using Sentinel-1 SAR data in order to characterize intraannual supraglacial meltwater dynamics also during polar night and independent of meteorological conditions. In summary, the implementation of the Random Forest classifier enabled the development of the first automated mapping method applied to Sentinel-2 data distributed across all three Antarctic regions.

Synergistic Use of Single-Pass Interferometry and Radar Altimetry to Measure Mass Loss of NEGIS Outlet Glaciers between 2011 and 2014

Mass balances of individual glaciers on ice sheets have been previously reported by forming a mass budget of discharged ice and modelled ice sheet surface mass balance or a complementary method which measures volume changes over the glaciated area that are subsequently converted to glacier mass change. On ice sheets, volume changes have been measured predominantly with radar and laser altimeters but InSAR DEM differencing has also been applied on smaller ice bodies. Here, we report for the first time on the synergistic use of volumetric measurements from the CryoSat-2 radar altimetry mission together with TanDEM-X DEM differencing and calculate the mass balance of the two major outlet glaciers of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream: Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79North). The glaciers lost 3.59 ± 1.15 G t a − 1 and 1.01 ± 0.95 G t a − 1 , respectively, between January 2011 and January 2014. Additionally, there has been substantial sub-aqueous mass loss on Zachariæ Isstrøm of more than 11 G t a − 1 . We attribute the mass changes on both glaciers to dynamic downwasting. The presented methodology now permits using TanDEM-X bistatic InSAR data in the context of geodetic mass balance investigations for large ice sheet outlet glaciers. In the future, this will allow monitoring the mass changes of dynamic outlet glaciers with high spatial resolution while the superior vertical accuracy of CryoSat-2 can be used for the vast accumulation zones in the ice sheet interior.

Satellite Remote Sensing of the Greenland Ice Sheet Ablation Zone: A Review

The Greenland Ice Sheet is now the largest land ice contributor to global sea level rise, largely driven by increased surface meltwater runoff from the ablation zone, i.e., areas of the ice sheet where annual mass losses exceed gains. This small but critically important area of the ice sheet has expanded in size by ~50% since the early 1960s, and satellite remote sensing is a powerful tool for monitoring the physical processes that influence its surface mass balance. This review synthesizes key remote sensing methods and scientific findings from satellite remote sensing of the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone, covering progress in (1) radar altimetry, (2) laser (lidar) altimetry, (3) gravimetry, (4) multispectral optical imagery, and (5) microwave and thermal imagery. Physical characteristics and quantities examined include surface elevation change, gravimetric mass balance, reflectance, albedo, and mapping of surface melt extent and glaciological facies and zones. The review concludes that future progress will benefit most from methods that combine multi-sensor, multi-wavelength, and cross-platform datasets designed to discriminate the widely varying surface processes in the ablation zone. Specific examples include fusing laser altimetry, radar altimetry, and optical stereophotogrammetry to enhance spatial measurement density, cross-validate surface elevation change, and diagnose radar elevation bias; employing dual-frequency radar, microwave scatterometry, or combining radar and laser altimetry to map seasonal snow depth; fusing optical imagery, radar imagery, and microwave scatterometry to discriminate between snow, liquid water, refrozen meltwater, and bare ice near the equilibrium line altitude; combining optical reflectance with laser altimetry to map supraglacial lake, stream, and crevasse bathymetry; and monitoring the inland migration of snowlines, surface melt extent, and supraglacial hydrologic features.

Cloud-driven modulations of Greenland ice sheet surface melt

Clouds have been recognized to enhance surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). However, quantitative estimates of the effects of clouds on the GrIS melt area and ice-sheet-wide surface mass balance are still lacking. Here we assess the effects of clouds with a state-of-the-art regional climate model, conducting a numerical sensitivity test in which adiabatic atmospheric conditions as well as zero cloud water/ice amounts are assumed (i.e., clear-sky conditions), although the precipitation rate is the same as in the control all-sky simulation. By including or excluding clouds, we quantify time-integrated feedbacks for the first time. We find that clouds were responsible for a 3.1%, 0.3%, and 0.7% increase in surface melt extent (of the total GrIS area) in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. During the same periods, clouds reduced solar heating and thus daily runoff by 1.6, 0.8, and 1.0 Gt day^-1, respectively: clouds did not enhance surface mass loss. In the ablation areas, the presence of clouds results in a reduction of downward latent heat flux at the snow/ice surface so that much less energy is available for surface melt, which highlights the importance of indirect time-integrated feedbacks of cloud radiative effects.

Ice-stream demise dynamically conditioned by trough shape and bed strength

Ice sheet mass loss is currently dominated by fast-flowing glaciers (ice streams) terminating in the ocean as ice shelves and resting on beds below sea level. The factors controlling ice-stream flow and retreat over longer time scales (>100 years), especially the role of three-dimensional bed shape and bed strength, remain major uncertainties. We focus on a former ice stream where trough shape and bed substrate are known, or can be defined, to reconstruct ice-stream retreat history and grounding-line movements over 15 millennia since the Last Glacial Maximum. We identify a major behavioral step change around 18,500 to 16,000 years ago-out of tune with external forcing factors-associated with the collapse of floating ice sectors and rapid ice-front retreat. We attribute this step change to a marked geological transition from a soft/weak bed to a hard/strong bed coincident with a change in trough geometry. Both these factors conditioned and ultimately hastened ice-stream demise.

Large-scale experiments into the tsunamigenic potential of different iceberg calving mechanisms

Mass balance analysis of ice sheets is a key component to understand the effects of global warming. A significant component of ice sheet and shelf mass balance is iceberg calving, which can generate large tsunamis endangering human beings and coastal infrastructure. Such iceberg-tsunamis have reached amplitudes of 50 m and destroyed harbours. Calving icebergs interact with the surrounding water through different mechanisms and we investigate five; A: capsizing, B: gravity-dominated fall, C: buoyancy-dominated fall, D: gravity-dominated overturning and E: buoyancy-dominated overturning. Gravity-dominated icebergs essentially fall into the water body whereas buoyancy-dominated icebergs rise to the water surface. We find with unique large-scale laboratory experiments that iceberg-tsunami heights from gravity-dominated mechanisms (B and D) are roughly an order of magnitude larger than from A, C and E. A theoretical model for released iceberg energy supports this finding and the measured wave periods upscaled to Greenlandic outlet glaciers agree with field observations. Whilst existing empirical equations for landslide-tsunamis establish estimates of an upper envelope of the maximum iceberg-tsunami heights, they fail to capture the physics of most iceberg-tsunami mechanisms.

Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is a growing contributor to global sea-level rise¹, with recent ice mass loss dominated by surface meltwater runoff^2,3. Satellite observations reveal positive trends in GrIS surface melt extent⁴, but melt variability, intensity and runoff remain uncertain before the satellite era. Here we present the first continuous, multi-century and observationally constrained record of GrIS surface melt intensity and runoff, revealing that the magnitude of recent GrIS melting is exceptional over at least the last 350 years. We develop this record through stratigraphic analysis of central west Greenland ice cores, and demonstrate that measurements of refrozen melt layers in percolation zone ice cores can be used to quantifiably, and reproducibly, reconstruct past melt rates. We show significant (P < 0.01) and spatially extensive correlations between these ice-core-derived melt records and modelled melt rates^5,6 and satellite-derived melt duration⁴ across Greenland more broadly, enabling the reconstruction of past ice-sheet-scale surface melt intensity and runoff. We find that the initiation of increases in GrIS melting closely follow the onset of industrial-era Arctic warming in the mid-1800s, but that the magnitude of GrIS melting has only recently emerged beyond the range of natural variability. Owing to a nonlinear response of surface melting to increasing summer air temperatures, continued atmospheric warming will lead to rapid increases in GrIS runoff and sea-level contributions.

Remote Sensing of Antarctic Glacier and Ice-Shelf Front Dynamics—A Review

The contribution of Antarctica’s ice sheet to global sea-level rise depends on the very dynamic behavior of glaciers and ice shelves. One important parameter of ice-sheet dynamics is the location of glacier and ice-shelf fronts. Numerous remote sensing studies on Antarctic glacier and ice-shelf front positions exist, but no long-term record on circum-Antarctic front dynamics has been established so far. The article outlines the potential of remote sensing to map, extract, and measure calving front dynamics. Furthermore, this review provides an overview of the spatial and temporal availability of Antarctic calving front observations for the first time. Single measurements are compiled to a circum-Antarctic record of glacier and ice shelf retreat/advance. We find sufficient frontal records for the Antarctic Peninsula and Victoria Land, whereas on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), measurements only concentrate on specific glaciers and ice sheets. Frontal records for the East Antarctic Ice Sheet exist since the 1970s. Studies agree on the general retreat of calving fronts along the Antarctic Peninsula. East Antarctic calving fronts also showed retreating tendencies between 1970s until the early 1990s, but have advanced since the 2000s. Exceptions of this general trend are Victoria Land, Wilkes Land, and the northernmost Dronning Maud Land. For the WAIS, no clear trend in long-term front fluctuations could be identified, as observations of different studies vary in space and time, and fronts highly fluctuate. For further calving front analysis, regular mapping intervals as well as glacier morphology should be included. We propose to exploit current and future developments in Earth observations to create frequent standardized measurements for circum-Antarctic assessments of glacier and ice-shelf front dynamics in regard to ice-sheet mass balance and climate forcing.

Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene

To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters ¹ . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so)^2-4. Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today's grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance ⁵ . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss ⁶ on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity-parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models.

The diversity of ice algal communities on the Greenland Ice Sheet as revealed by oligotyping

The Arctic is being disproportionally affected by climate change compared with other geographic locations, and is currently experiencing unprecedented melt rates. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) can be regarded as the largest supraglacial ecosystem on Earth, and ice algae are the dominant primary producers on bare ice surfaces throughout the course of a melt season. Ice-algal-derived pigments cause a darkening of the ice surface, which in turn decreases albedo and increases melt rates. The important role of ice algae in changing melt rates has only recently been recognized, and we currently know little about their community compositions and functions. Here, we present the first analysis of ice algal communities across a 100 km transect on the GrIS by high-throughput sequencing and subsequent oligotyping of the most abundant taxa. Our data reveal an extremely low algal diversity with Ancylonema nordenskiöldii and a Mesotaenium species being by far the dominant taxa at all sites. We employed an oligotyping approach and revealed a hidden diversity not detectable by conventional clustering of operational taxonomic units and taxonomic classification. Oligotypes of the dominant taxa exhibit a site-specific distribution, which may be linked to differences in temperatures and subsequently the extent of the melting. Our results help to better understand the distribution patterns of ice algal communities that play a crucial role in the GrIS ecosystem.

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr^-1) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

Dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet controlled by distributed biologically-active impurities

Albedo—a primary control on surface melt—varies considerably across the Greenland Ice Sheet yet the specific surface types that comprise its dark zone remain unquantified. Here we use UAV imagery to attribute seven distinct surface types to observed albedo along a 25 km transect dissecting the western, ablating sector of the ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that distributed surface impurities—an admixture of dust, black carbon and pigmented algae—explain 73% of the observed spatial variability in albedo and are responsible for the dark zone itself. Crevassing and supraglacial water also drive albedo reduction but due to their limited extent, explain just 12 and 15% of the observed variability respectively. Cryoconite, concentrated in large holes or fluvial deposits, is the darkest surface type but accounts for <1% of the area and has minimal impact. We propose that the ongoing emergence and dispersal of distributed impurities, amplified by enhanced ablation and biological activity, will drive future expansion of Greenland's dark zone.

The surface types that comprise the dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, an area of bare ice with low albedo, are unknown. Here, the authors use UAV imagery to show that, during the melt-season, biologically active surface impurities are responsible for spatial albedo patterns and the dark zone itself.

Seasonal to decadal variability in ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet

Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N = 230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000-2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modelled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r ² = 0.59, p = 10^-4) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r ² = 0.79), which show a net retreat of > 400 km, or an average retreat of > 2 km at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.

Katabatic winds diminish precipitation contribution to the Antarctic ice mass balance

Snowfall in Antarctica is a key term of the ice sheet mass budget that influences the sea level at global scale. Over the continental margins, persistent katabatic winds blow all year long and supply the lower troposphere with unsaturated air. We show that this dry air leads to significant low-level sublimation of snowfall. We found using unprecedented data collected over 1 year on the coast of Adélie Land and simulations from different atmospheric models that low-level sublimation accounts for a 17% reduction of total snowfall over the continent and up to 35% on the margins of East Antarctica, significantly affecting satellite-based estimations close to the ground. Our findings suggest that, as climate warming progresses, this process will be enhanced and will limit expected precipitation increases at the ground level.

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.

Monitoring southwest Greenland's ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise

The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth's crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.

Decadal slowdown of a land-terminating sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet despite warming

Ice flow along land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) varies considerably in response to fluctuating inputs of surface meltwater to the bed of the ice sheet. Such inputs lubricate the ice-bed interface, transiently speeding up the flow of ice. Greater melting results in faster ice motion during summer, but slower motion over the subsequent winter, owing to the evolution of an efficient drainage system that enables water to drain from regions of the ice-sheet bed that have a high basal water pressure. However, the impact of hydrodynamic coupling on ice motion over decadal timescales remains poorly constrained. Here we show that annual ice motion across an 8,000-km(2) land-terminating region of the west GIS margin, extending to 1,100 m above sea level, was 12% slower in 2007-14 compared with 1985-94, despite a 50% increase in surface meltwater production. Our findings suggest that, over these three decades, hydrodynamic coupling in this section of the ablation zone resulted in a net slowdown of ice motion (not a speed-up, as previously postulated). Increases in meltwater production from projected climate warming may therefore further reduce the motion of land-terminating margins of the GIS. Our findings suggest that these sectors of the ice sheet are more resilient to the dynamic impacts of enhanced meltwater production than previously thought.

Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate due to increased surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Quantifying future dynamic contributions to sea level requires accurate portrayal of outlet glaciers in ice sheet simulations, but to date poor knowledge of subglacial topography and limited model resolution have prevented reproduction of complex spatial patterns of outlet flow. Here we combine a high-resolution ice-sheet model coupled to uniformly applied models of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding, and a new subglacial topography data set to simulate the flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Flow patterns of many outlet glaciers are well captured, illustrating fundamental commonalities in outlet glacier flow and highlighting the importance of efforts to map subglacial topography. Success in reproducing present day flow patterns shows the potential for prognostic modelling of ice sheets without the need for spatially varying parameters with uncertain time evolution.

Quantifying Greenland's future contribution to sea level requires accurate portrayal of its outlet glaciers in ice sheet simulations. Here, the authors show that outlet glacier flow can be captured if ice thickness is well constrained and vertical shearing as well as membrane stresses are included in the model.

Bridging the divide: a model-data approach to Polar and Alpine microbiology

Advances in microbial ecology in the cryosphere continue to be driven by empirical approaches including field sampling and laboratory-based analyses. Although mathematical models are commonly used to investigate the physical dynamics of Polar and Alpine regions, they are rarely applied in microbial studies. Yet integrating modelling approaches with ongoing observational and laboratory-based work is ideally suited to Polar and Alpine microbial ecosystems given their harsh environmental and biogeochemical characteristics, simple trophic structures, distinct seasonality, often difficult accessibility, geographical expansiveness and susceptibility to accelerated climate changes. In this opinion paper, we explain how mathematical modelling ideally complements field and laboratory-based analyses. We thus argue that mathematical modelling is a powerful tool for the investigation of these extreme environments and that fully integrated, interdisciplinary model-data approaches could help the Polar and Alpine microbiology community address some of the great research challenges of the 21st century (e.g. assessing global significance and response to climate change). However, a better integration of field and laboratory work with model design and calibration/validation, as well as a stronger focus on quantitative information is required to advance models that can be used to make predictions and upscale processes and fluxes beyond what can be captured by observations alone.

Ice-sheet-driven methane storage and release in the Arctic

It is established that late-twentieth and twenty-first century ocean warming has forced dissociation of gas hydrates with concomitant seabed methane release. However, recent dating of methane expulsion sites suggests that gas release has been ongoing over many millennia. Here we synthesize observations of ∼1,900 fluid escape features—pockmarks and active gas flares—across a previously glaciated Arctic margin with ice-sheet thermomechanical and gas hydrate stability zone modelling. Our results indicate that even under conservative estimates of ice thickness with temperate subglacial conditions, a 500-m thick gas hydrate stability zone—which could serve as a methane sink—existed beneath the ice sheet. Moreover, we reveal that in water depths 150–520 m methane release also persisted through a 20-km-wide window between the subsea and subglacial gas hydrate stability zone. This window expanded in response to post-glacial climate warming and deglaciation thereby opening the Arctic shelf for methane release.

Methane release across the Arctic continental shelf has been attributed to modern dissociation of gas hydrate, accelerated by ocean warming. Here, the authors show that thermogenic methane was stored as subglacial gas hydrate during the last glaciation, and subsequently released following ice sheet retreat.

North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled over the past two decades, contributing a quarter of the observed global sea-level rise. Increased submarine melting is thought to have triggered the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, which is partly responsible for the ice loss. However, the chain of events and physical processes remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantic's upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. This led, in conjunction with increased runoff, to enhanced submarine glacier melting. Future climate projections raise the potential for continued increases in warming and ice-mass loss, with implications for sea level and climate.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.