Integrated pharmacometrics and systems pharmacology model-based analyses to guide GnRH receptor modulator development for management of endometriosis

A Randomized Open-Label Study of Relugolix Alone or Relugolix Combination Therapy in Premenopausal Women

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Relugolix is a gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor antagonist. Relugolix 40-mg monotherapy is associated with vasomotor symptoms and long-term bone mineral density loss due to hypoestrogenism. This study assessed whether the addition of estradiol (E2) 1 mg and norethindrone acetate (NETA) 0.5 mg to relugolix 40 mg (relugolix combination therapy) provides systemic E2 concentrations in the 20-50 pg/mL range to minimize these undesirable effects.

METHODS

This was a randomized, open-label, parallel-group study to assess the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, safety, and tolerability of relugolix 40 mg alone or in combination with E2 1 mg and NETA 0.5 mg in healthy premenopausal women. Eligible women were randomized 1:1 to receive relugolix alone or relugolix plus E2/NETA for 6 weeks. Study assessments included pharmacokinetic parameters of E2, estrone, and relugolix in both treatment groups, and norethindrone in the relugolix plus E2/NETA treatment group at weeks 3 and 6.

RESULTS

Median E2 24 h average concentrations with the relugolix plus E2/NETA group (N = 23) were 31.5 pg/mL, 26 pg/mL higher compared with the relugolix-alone group (6.2 pg/mL) (N = 25). There were 86.4% of participants in the relugolix plus E2/NETA group who had E2 average concentrations exceeding 20 pg/mL, the threshold expected to minimize bone mineral density loss, compared with 21.1% in the relugolix-alone group. Both treatments were generally safe and well tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

Relugolix 40 mg in combination with E2 1 mg and NETA 0.5 mg provided systemic E2 concentrations within a range expected to minimize the risk of undesirable effects of hypoestrogenism associated with the administration of relugolix alone.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov identifier no. NCT04978688. Trial registration date: 27 July, 2021; retrospectively registered.

Assessing the performance of QSP models: biology as the driver for validation

Validation of a quantitative model is a critical step in establishing confidence in the model's suitability for whatever analysis it was designed. While processes for validation are well-established in the statistical sciences, the field of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) has taken a more piecemeal approach to defining and demonstrating validation. Although classical statistical methods can be used in a QSP context, proper validation of a mechanistic systems model requires a more nuanced approach to what precisely is being validated, and what role said validation plays in the larger context of the analysis. In this review, we summarize current thoughts of QSP validation in the scientific community, contrast the aims of statistical validation from several contexts (including inference, pharmacometrics analysis, and machine learning) with the challenges faced in QSP analysis, and use examples from published QSP models to define different stages or levels of validation, any of which may be sufficient depending on the context at hand.

Synthesis and evaluation of piperazinotriazoles. Discovery of a potent and orally bioavailable neurokinin-3 receptor inhibitor

The neurokinin-3 receptor (NK3R) is one of three receptors that recognize neurokinins. The finding that pharmacological blockade of neurokinin B (NKB) signaling with an oral NK3R antagonist can significantly improve hot flash symptoms independent of any hormonal effect fits strongly suggest that NK3R is a viable drug target and that drugs targeting this receptor could be novel pharmacotherapies. Currently no NK3R ligands have been approved for the treatment of human disorders. Herein, we designed and synthesized a series of novel imidazolepiperazine derivatives (16a-16x, 20a-20f, 29a-29m) and performed molecular docking to confirm the design, among which the target compound 16x exhibited promising inhibitory activity against NK3R (IC₅₀ = 430.60 nM) with excellent membrane permeability (Papp, A-B = 37.6 × 10^-6 cm/s, ER < 1) and oral bioavailability (F% = 93.6%). Our in vivo studies demonstrated that 16x was orally active, efficacious, and well-tolerated in ovariectomy (OVX) model to suppress blood luteinizing hormone levels, which suggests that 16x is a viable lead compound for further optimization and development.

Computational Models for Diagnosing and Treating Endometriosis

Endometriosis is a common but poorly understood disease. Symptoms can begin early in adolescence, with menarche, and can be debilitating. Despite this, people often suffer several years before being correctly diagnosed and adequately treated. Endometriosis involves the inappropriate growth of endometrial-like tissue (including epithelial cells, stromal fibroblasts, vascular cells, and immune cells) outside of the uterus. Computational models can aid in understanding the mechanisms by which immune, hormone, and vascular disruptions manifest in endometriosis and complicate treatment. In this review, we illustrate how three computational modeling approaches (regression, pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics, and quantitative systems pharmacology) have been used to improve the diagnosis and treatment of endometriosis. As we explore these approaches and their differing detail of biological mechanisms, we consider how each approach can answer different questions about endometriosis. We summarize the mathematics involved, and we use published examples of each approach to compare how researchers: (1) shape the scope of each model, (2) incorporate experimental and clinical data, and (3) generate clinically useful predictions and insight. Lastly, we discuss the benefits and limitations of each modeling approach and how we can combine these approaches to further understand, diagnose, and treat endometriosis.

A model-based analysis to guide gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor antagonist use for management of endometriosis

Aims

To identify linzagolix doses, an oral GnRH receptor antagonist, that effectively lower oestradiol (E2) to relieve endometriosis‐related pelvic pain without compromising bone health.

Methods

Integrated statistical, pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic and systems pharmacology models were developed from Phase 1 and 2 clinical trial data in healthy volunteers and patients, receiving linzagolix 25–200 mg daily or placebo, and analysed simultaneously. The main outcome measures were pelvic pain scores for dysmenorrhoea, nonmenstrual pelvic pain (NMPP), uterine bleeding and lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD).

Results

Linzagolix pharmacokinetics were described by a 2‐compartment model with sequential zero/first‐order absorption process (CL/F: 0.422 L/h). E2 changes over time were well described as a function of linzagolix 24‐hour AUC (AUC₅₀: 1.68 × 10⁵ ng h/mL). For a Caucasian reference patient, a change in E2 from 50–20 pg/mL at 24 weeks increased the odds of relief of dysmenorrhoea 1.33‐fold and NMPP 1.07‐fold (95% CI: 1.22–1.47 and 1.02–1.12, respectively) and decreased bleeding days by 1.55 (95% CI: 1.39–1.72). A previously validated quantitative systems pharmacology BMD model was adjusted to the clinical data. The mean week 24 lumbar spine BMD change from baseline ranged from −0.092% in the 50 mg dose, −1.30% in the 100 mg dose group and −2.67% in the 200 mg dose group.

Discussion

The previously‐reported E2 target range (20–50 pg/mL) to balance efficacy and safety endpoints was confirmed. Linzagolix once daily doses between 75–125 mg daily were expected to meet endometriosis‐associated pain, efficacy, and BMD loss targets in Caucasian patients.

Linzagolix: a new GnRH-antagonist under investigation for the treatment of endometriosis and uterine myomas

INTRODUCTION

Uterine myomas and endometriosis are benign hormone-dependent diseases affecting women of reproductive age. Substantial efforts have been made to develop innovative medical options for treating these gynecologic diseases. Elagolix and relugolix have been approved in some countries for treating endometriosis and myomas, respectively; however, linzagolix (OBE 2109, KLH 2109) is a new oral gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist in phase II-III trials. Treatment options for women with contraindications for hormonal therapies or who refuse particular options, are the driving force behind the development of new drugs in this area.

AREA COVERED

This drug evaluation highlights definitive and preliminary results from previous and ongoing studies of linzagolix for the treatment of endometriosis and myomas.

EXPERT OPINION

Linzagolix showed a dose-dependent and rapidly reversible action on the pituitary-gonadal axis. In a recent phase II trial (EDELWEISS), linzagolix significantly reduced pain related to endometriosis and improved quality of life at single daily doses of 75-200 mg. The preliminary results of international, double-blind phase III trials (PRIMROSE 1 and 2) reported its efficacy in treating heavy menstrual bleeding related to myomas with a good safety profile. Further studies will determine the necessity of add-back therapy during long-term use of linzagolix.

Validation of a quantitative systems pharmacology model of calcium homeostasis using elagolix Phase 3 clinical trial data in women with endometriosis

Elagolix is a novel, oral gonadotropin‐releasing hormone receptor antagonist indicated for the management of moderate to severe pain associated with endometriosis and heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids. Consistent with its mechanism of action, elagolix exhibited dose‐dependent suppression of estradiol (E2) in clinical studies. A dose‐response model that describes the relationship between elagolix dosages and average E2 levels was combined with a previously published quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of calcium homeostasis to predict bone mineral density (BMD) changes during and following elagolix treatment. In the QSP model, changes in E2 levels were linked to downstream changes in markers of bone resorption (carboxyterminal cross‐linked telopeptide of type 1 collagen [CTX]), formation (N‐terminal propeptide of type 1 procollagen [P1NP]) and BMD. The BMD, CTX, and P1NP predictions by the QSP model were validated against observed data from four phase III clinical trials of elagolix in premenopausal women with endometriosis. BMD, CTX, and P1NP were successfully described by the QSP model, without any model fitting, suggesting that the model was validated for further predictions of elagolix effects on BMD. Simulations using the validated QSP model demonstrated that elagolix 150 mg once daily dosing for 24 months is predicted to result in −0.91% change from baseline in lumbar spine BMD. The QSP model simulation results were part of the totality of evidence to support the approved duration of therapy for elagolix 150 mg once daily in patients with endometriosis.

Effects of combined GnRH receptor antagonist linzagolix and hormonal add-back therapy on vaginal bleeding-delayed add-back onset does not improve bleeding pattern

Linzagolix is a novel, oral GnRH receptor antagonist developed for the treatment of endometriosis and uterine fibroids. We assessed high-dose linzagolix safety and bleeding pattern effects in healthy women using combined versus delayed hormonal add-back therapy (ABT). This was a single-center, open-label, parallel-group study in 32 premenopausal women, who were randomized to daily linzagolix (200 mg)/ABT for 10 weeks ("Combined-ABT") or linzagolix (200 mg) for 4 weeks followed by linzagolix (200 mg)/ABT for 6 weeks ("Delayed-ABT"). Main outcome measures included bleeding records, trough estradiol (E2) concentrations and adverse events. Linzagolix alone promptly reduced bleeding, leading to amenorrhea in all women by week 5. When combined ABT was started (week 5), spotting (≤ 0.80 days/week/subject) and bleeding (≤ 0.53 days/week/subject) occurred; bleeding was markedly more frequent than after ABT start in the "Combined-ABT" group. In the "Combined-ABT" group, spotting (≤ 0.69 days/week/subject) and occasional bleeding (≤ 0.25 days/week/subject) occurred during the first half of treatment with a tendency to further decrease during the second half. Linzagolix alone rapidly reduced E2 reaching median week 4 levels of 4.1 pg/mL. Median E2 after combined linzagolix/ABT ranged between 35 and 42 pg/mL for the "Delayed-ABT" group (weeks 5-10) and between 24 and 32 pg/mL for the "Combined-ABT" group (weeks 1-10). Linzagolix was well tolerated. Most frequently reported adverse events were headache (32/156) and hot flushes (19/156). Hot flushes exclusively occurred in the "Delayed-ABT" group. In this study, treatment start with a combined linzagolix/ABT regimen resulted in better bleeding control, no hot flushes, and lower median E2 levels than a "Delayed-ABT" regimen. These results may help defining the linzagolix/ABT regimen to be adopted when treating sex-hormone-dependent diseases. Clinical Trial Registration Number-EudraCT Number: 2017-003822-34.

Pharmacometrics and systems pharmacology for metabolic bone diseases

Mathematical modelling and simulation (M&S) of drug concentrations, pharmacologic effects and the (patho)physiologic systems within which they interact can be powerful tools for the preclinical, translational and clinical development of drugs. Indeed, the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA VI), incorporated as part of the FDA Reauthorization Act of 2017 (FDARA), highlights the goal of advancing model-informed drug development (MIDD). MIDD can benefit development across many drug classes, including for metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis, cancer-related and numerous rare metabolic bone diseases; conditions characterized by significant morbidity and mortality. A drought looms in terms of the availability of new drugs to better treat these devastating diseases. This review provides an overview of several M&S approaches ranging from simple pharmacokinetic to integrated pharmacometric and systems pharmacology modelling. Examples are included to illustrate the use of these approaches during the development of several drugs for metabolic bone diseases such as bisphosphonates, denosumab, teriparatide and sclerostin inhibitors (romosozumab and blosozumab).

Regulatory Perspectives in Pharmacometric Models of Osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a disorder of the bones in which they are weakened to the extent that they become more prone to fracture. There are various forms of osteoporosis: some of them are induced by drugs, and others occur as a chronic progressive disorder as an individual gets older. As the median age of the population rises across the world, the chronic form of the bone disease is drawing attention as an important worldwide health issue. Developing new treatments for osteoporosis and comparing them with existing treatments are complicated processes due to current acceptance by regulatory authorities of bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk as clinical end points, which require clinical trials to be large, prolonged, and expensive to determine clinically significant impacts in BMD and fracture risk. Moreover, changes in BMD and fracture risk are not always correlated, with some clinical trials showing BMD improvement without a reduction in fractures. More recently, bone turnover markers specific to bone formation and resorption have been recognized that reflect bone physiology at a cellular level. These bone turnover markers change faster than BMD and fracture risk, and mathematically linking the biomarkers via a computational model to BMD and/or fracture risk may help in predicting BMD and fracture risk changes over time during the progression of a disease or when under treatment. Here, we discuss important concepts of bone physiology, osteoporosis, treatment options, mathematical modeling of osteoporosis, and the use of these models by the pharmaceutical industry and the Food and Drug Administration.

Pathogenesis of endometriosis: Interaction between Endocrine and inflammatory pathways

Despite an estimated prevalence of 11% in women and plausible historical descriptions dating back to the 17th century, the etiology of endometriosis remains poorly understood. Classical theories of the histological origins of endometriosis are reviewed below. Clinical presentations are variable, and signs and symptoms do not correlate well with the extent of disease. In this summary, we have attempted to synthesize the growing evidence that hormonal and immune factors conspire to activate a local inflammatory microenvironment that encourages endometriosis to persist and elaborate mediators of its two cardinal symptoms: pain and infertility. Surprisingly, in the search for novel therapeutics for medical treatment of endometriosis, some compounds appear to have dual pharmacological functions, simultaneously modifying the endocrine and immune system facets of this complex gynecologic syndrome. We predict that these lead drugs will provide more therapeutic choices for patients in the future.

Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Receptor Antagonist Mono- and Combination Therapy With Estradiol/Norethindrone Acetate Add-Back: Pharmacodynamics and Safety of OBE2109

Context

OBE2109 is a potent, oral gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor antagonist being developed for the treatment of sex-hormone-dependent diseases in women.

Objective

We assessed the pharmacodynamics and safety of OBE2109 alone and combined with estradiol (E2)/norethindrone acetate (NETA) add-back therapy on E2 levels and vaginal bleeding.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a single-center, open-label, randomized, parallel-group study in 76 healthy premenopausal women.

Interventions

Women were randomly assigned to take the following doses (in milligrams) once daily for 6 weeks: OBE2109, 100 or 200; or OBE2109/E2/NETA, 100/0.5/0.1, or 100/1.0/0.5, or 200/1.0/0.5.

Main Outcome Measures

E2 concentrations, bleeding pattern, exploratory bone metabolism biomarkers, and adverse events.

Results

OBE2109 100 mg and 200 mg alone reduced E2 levels to reach median levels of 19.5 and 3.2 pg/mL, respectively, at week 4. Median E2 levels after combined OBE2109/add-back therapy ranged between 25 and 40 pg/mL. OBE2109 100 mg or 200 mg alone induced amenorrhea. By day 15, >85% of women had no vaginal bleeding during the last 4 weeks of treatment. Add-back therapy partially impaired bleeding control: The highest amenorrhea rate (53%) was observed with OBE2109 100 mg/1.0 mg/0.5 mg. The addition of E2/NETA, particularly at 1 mg/0.5 mg, mitigated the increase of two bone markers induced by OBE2109 200 mg.

Conclusion

OBE2109 promptly lowered E2 levels. Add-back therapy may be required to prevent adverse effects on bone in women treated with the 200-mg dose (at 100 mg in some women). These results provide a basis for OBE2109 regimen selection to treat sex-hormone-dependent diseases.

Applied Concepts in PBPK Modeling: How to Build a PBPK/PD Model

The aim of this tutorial is to introduce the fundamental concepts of physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) modeling with a special focus on their practical implementation in a typical PBPK model building workflow. To illustrate basic steps in PBPK model building, a PBPK model for ciprofloxacin will be constructed and coupled to a pharmacodynamic model to simulate the antibacterial activity of ciprofloxacin treatment.

Pharmacodynamics and safety of the novel selective progesterone receptor modulator vilaprisan: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled phase 1 trial in healthy women

STUDY QUESTION

Does administration of vilaprisan (VPR) to healthy women for 12 weeks reduce menstrual bleeding?

SUMMARY ANSWER

In this 12-week proof-of-concept phase 1 trial, most women (30/33, 90%) who received VPR at daily doses of 1-5 mg reported the absence of menstrual bleeding.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Vilaprisan (BAY 1002670) is a novel, highly potent selective progesterone receptor modulator that markedly reduces the growth of human leiomyoma tissue in a preclinical model of uterine fibroids (UFs).

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

In this double-blind, parallel-group study, of the 163 healthy women enrolled 73 were randomized to daily VPR 0.1 mg (n = 12), 0.5 mg (n = 12), 1 mg (n = 13), 2 mg (n = 12), 5 mg (n = 12) or placebo tablets (n = 12) for 12 weeks. Participants were followed up until the start of the second menstrual bleeding after the end of treatment. Trial simulations were used to determine the minimum sample size required to estimate the non-bleeding rate (i.e. self-assessed bleeding intensity of 'none' or 'spotting') using Bayesian dose-response estimation with incorporated prior information. It was estimated that 48 participants in the per-protocol analysis population would be sufficient.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women aged 18-45 years who had been sterilized by tubal ligation were enrolled between November 2011 and May 2012. Participants kept a daily diary of bleeding intensity. Blood and urine samples were taken, and transvaginal ultrasound was performed before treatment, during treatment and follow-up. Endometrial biopsies were obtained during the pretreatment cycle, at the end of the treatment period and during the follow-up phase. The primary outcome was the estimated dose-response curve of the observed non-bleeding rate during Days 10-84 of treatment, excluding the endometrial biopsy day and 2 days after biopsy. Secondary outcomes included return of bleeding during follow-up, size of follicle-like structures and serum hormone levels. Safety assessments included adverse events (AEs), endometrial thickness and histology, laboratory parameters, vital signs and 12-lead electrocardiography.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

All 73 randomized participants received at least one dose of study medication and were included in safety analyses; six participants were excluded from the per-protocol analyses. A total of 69 completed the study. Observed non-bleeding rates increased with VPR dose: 0.1 mg (0%; 90% confidence interval [CI]: 0-23.8), 0.5 mg (27.3%; 90% CI: 7.9-56.4), 1 mg (80.0%; 90% CI: 49.3-96.3), 2 mg (100%; 90% CI: 77.9-100), 5 mg (90.9%; 90% CI: 63.6-99.5), compared with 0% (90% CI: 0-22.1) in the placebo group. Maximal non-bleeding rates were reached at doses of 2 mg and higher. Return of menstrual bleeding was observed in all women ≤52 days after VPR discontinuation. No treatment-emergent critical endometrial findings occurred. Follicular growth was not suppressed and minimum average estradiol levels remained above 40 pg/ml. No serious treatment-emergent AEs or study discontinuations due to AEs were reported. Clinically relevant changes in laboratory parameters or vital signs were not evident.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The results of this small proof-of-concept study will need to be confirmed in larger trials in patients with UFs to establish the potential therapeutic benefits and safety of VPR.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The high rates of non-bleeding (80-100% at VPR doses of 1-5 mg) support further evaluation of VPR in patients with UFs and heavy menstrual bleeding.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This study was funded by Bayer Pharma AG. B.S., A.K., M.-H.S.M., C.S. and B.R. are employees of Bayer Pharma AG. B.S., A.K. and M.-H.S.M. are listed as inventors of an issued patent related to this work, and received payment for this from Bayer Pharma AG. D.B. is the founder of Biokinetic Europe Ltd, UK, which received funding for this study from Bayer Pharma AG. M.K. is an employee of Nuvisan GmbH, Germany, which received funding for this study from Bayer Pharma AG.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01816815.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE

20 March 2013.

DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT

28 November 2011.

The NK3 Receptor Antagonist ESN364 Suppresses Sex Hormones in Men and Women

CONTEXT

Women's health disorders are commonly treated by agents that suppress the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. NK3 receptor antagonism modulates this axis with distinct pharmacology compared to existing therapies.

OBJECTIVE

The study aim was to evaluate safety, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics on gonadotropins and sex hormones after single- and multiple-dose administration of an NK3R antagonist to healthy men and women.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a first-in-human, double-blind, placebo-controlled, combined single and multiple ascending dose trial.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty-one men and 24 regularly cycling women participated in the study.

INTERVENTION(S)

In part 1 of the study, men received single oral doses of 3-180 mg or placebo. In part 2, men received placebo or 20, 60, or 180 mg each day for 10 days. In part 3, women received placebo or 20, 60, or 180 mg each day for 21 days, where dosing was initiated on day 3 ± 2 after menses.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics on circulating levels of LH, FSH, testosterone, estradiol, and progesterone, in addition to physiological biomarkers of endometrial thickening, follicle growth, and the duration of the menstrual cycle were evaluated.

RESULTS

ESN364 was well-tolerated and rapidly bioavailable with linear pharmacokinetics and no drug accumulation with repeated, daily oral administration. Drug treatment dose-dependently decreased basal LH, but not FSH, and consequently decreased estradiol and progesterone (in women) as well as testosterone (in men). The hormonal changes in women corresponded to delayed ovulation, decreased endometrial thickening, impeded follicular maturation, and prolongation of the menstrual cycle. Drug effects were rapidly reversible.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral administration of the NK3R antagonist, ESN364, suppressed the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis in healthy volunteers by selective modulation of gonadotropin secretion, leading to a restrained decrease in ovarian hormone levels in women. These results suggest that ESN364 may offer therapeutic benefit in the treatment of women's health disorders with a mitigated risk of menopausal-like adverse events.

Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis.

A Systems Pharmacology Model of Erythropoiesis in Mice Induced by Small Molecule Inhibitor of Prolyl Hydroxylase Enzymes

Mammalian erythropoiesis is a conserved process tightly controlled by the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF1) pathway. In this study, a small molecule inhibitor (PHI-1) of prolyl-hydroxylase-2 (PHD2) enzyme involved in regulating HIF1α levels was orally administered to male BALB/c mice at 10 and 30 mg/kg. A systems pharmacology model was developed based on the measured PHI-1 plasma exposures, kidney HIF1α, kidney erythropoietin (EPO) mRNA, plasma EPO, reticulocyte counts, red blood cells, and hemoglobin levels. The model fit resulted in the estimation of drug potency (IC₅₀: 1.7μM), and systems parameters such as EPO mRNA turnover (k_{deg_EPOmRNA}: 0.43 hr^-1) and mean lifespan of reticulocytes (T_r: 81 hours). The model correctly described the observed 30–40-fold increase in kidney HIF1α protein, ∼1,000 fold increase in EPO mRNA and 2–3-fold increase in the reticulocytes at 30 mg/kg. This study presents the first parsimonious systems model of erythropoiesis to quantitatively describe the in vivo effects of PHD2 inhibition.

Optimization of Novel Antagonists to the Neurokinin-3 Receptor for the Treatment of Sex-Hormone Disorders (Part II)

Further lead optimization on N-acyl-triazolopiperazine antagonists to the neurokinin-3 receptor (NK₃R) based on the concurrent improvement in bioactivity and ligand lipophilic efficiency (LLE) is reported. Overall, compound 3 (LLE > 6) emerged as the most efficacious in castrated rat and monkey to lower plasma LH, and it displayed the best off-target safety profile that led to its clinical candidate nomination for the treatment of sex-hormone disorders.

Discovery and optimization of novel antagonists to the human neurokinin-3 receptor for the treatment of sex-hormone disorders (Part I)

Neurokinin-3 receptor (NK3R) has recently emerged as important in modulating the tonic pulsatile gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) release. We therefore decided to explore NK3R antagonists as therapeutics for sex-hormone disorders that can potentially benefit from lowering GnRH pulsatility with consequent diminished levels of plasma luteinizing hormone (LH) and correspondingly attenuated levels of circulating androgens and estrogens. The discovery and lead optimization of a novel N-acyl-triazolopiperazine NK3R antagonist chemotype achieved through bioisosteric lead change from the high-throughput screening (HTS) hit is described. A concomitant improvement in the antagonist bioactivity and ligand lipophilic efficiency (LLE) parameter were the principal guidelines in the lead optimization efforts. Examples of advanced lead analogues to demonstrate the amenability of this chemotype to achieving a suitable pharmacokinetic (PK) profile are provided as well as pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) correlations to analyze the trends observed for LH inhibition in castrated rats and monkeys that served as preliminary in vivo efficacy models.

FDA Advisory Meeting Clinical Pharmacology Review Utilizes a Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) Model: A Watershed Moment?

In the evolving discipline of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP), QSP model (QSPM) applications are expanding. Recently, a QSPM was used by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clinical pharmacologists to evaluate the appropriateness of a proposed dosing regimen for a new biologic. This application expands the use-horizon for QSPMs into the regulatory domain. Here we retrace the evolution of the model and suggest a question-based approach to directing model scope, identifying applications, and understanding overall QSPM value.

Implementation of quantitative and systems pharmacology in large pharma

Quantitative and systems pharmacology concepts and tools are the foundation of the model-informed drug development paradigm at Merck for integrating knowledge, enabling decisions, and enhancing submissions. Rigorous prioritization of modeling and simulation activities has enabled key drug development decisions and led to a high return on investment through significant cost avoidance. Critical factors for the successful implementation, examples on impact on decision making with associated return of investment, and drivers for continued success are discussed.

Systems pharmacology of the nerve growth factor pathway: use of a systems biology model for the identification of key drug targets using sensitivity analysis and the integration of physiology and pharmacology

The nerve growth factor (NGF) pathway is of great interest as a potential source of drug targets, for example in the management of certain types of pain. However, selecting targets from this pathway either by intuition or by non-contextual measures is likely to be challenging. An alternative approach is to construct a mathematical model of the system and via sensitivity analysis rank order the targets in the known pathway, with respect to an endpoint such as the diphosphorylated extracellular signal-regulated kinase concentration in the nucleus. Using the published literature, a model was created and, via sensitivity analysis, it was concluded that, after NGF itself, tropomyosin receptor kinase A (TrkA) was one of the most sensitive druggable targets. This initial model was subsequently used to develop a further model incorporating physiological and pharmacological parameters. This allowed the exploration of the characteristics required for a successful hypothetical TrkA inhibitor. Using these systems models, we were able to identify candidates for the optimal drug targets in the known pathway. These conclusions were consistent with clinical and human genetic data. We also found that incorporating appropriate physiological context was essential to drawing accurate conclusions about important parameters such as the drug dose required to give pathway inhibition. Furthermore, the importance of the concentration of key reactants such as TrkA kinase means that appropriate contextual data are required before clear conclusions can be drawn. Such models could be of great utility in selecting optimal targets and in the clinical evaluation of novel drugs.

Systems pharmacology for drug discovery and development: paradigm shift or flash in the pan?

Systems pharmacology is an emerging approach that sets out to use quantitative concepts rooted in the synergy between modeling and simulation on one hand and large-scale data collection and analysis on the other to investigate biological systems and design therapeutic interventions. Interest in this field has recently increased substantially, but so have perceived challenges and misunderstandings, especially related to implementation. This Commentary explores the opportunities and challenges in the rapidly evolving area of systems pharmacology from a drug discovery and development perspective.

Model-based drug development: a rational approach to efficiently accelerate drug development

The pharmaceutical industry continues to face significant challenges. Very few compounds that enter development reach the marketplace, and the investment required for each success can surpass $1.8 billion. Despite attempts to improve efficiency and increase productivity, total investment continues to rise whereas the output of new medicines declines. With costs increasing exponentially through each development phase, it is failure in phase II and phase III that is most wasteful. In today's development paradigm, late-stage failure is principally a result of insufficient efficacy. This is manifested as either a failure to differentiate sufficiently from placebo (shown for both novel and precedented mechanisms) or a failure to demonstrate sufficient differentiation from existing compounds. Set in this context, this article will discuss the role model-based drug development (MBDD) approaches can and do play in accelerating and optimizing compound development strategies through a series of illustrative examples.

Systems approaches in risk assessment

Adverse drug events (ADEs) remain a universal problem in drug development, regulatory review, and clinical practice with a substantial financial burden on the global health-care system. Recent advances in molecular and "omics" technologies, along with online databases and bioinformatics, have enabled a more integrative approach to understanding drug-target (protein) interactions, both desirable and undesirable, within a biological system. This has led to the development of systems approaches to risk assessment in an attempt to complement and improve on contemporary observational and predictive strategies for assessing risk. Although still in an evolutionary phase, systems approaches have the potential to markedly advance our understanding of ADEs and ability to predict them. Systems approaches will also move personalized medicine forward by enabling better identification of individual and subgroup risk factors.

Predicting nonlinear changes in bone mineral density over time using a multiscale systems pharmacology model

A mathematical model component that extends an existing physiologically based multiscale systems pharmacology model (MSPM) of calcium and bone homeostasis was developed, enabling prediction of nonlinear changes in lumbar spine bone mineral density (LSBMD). Data for denosumab, a monoclonal antibody osteoporosis treatment, dosed at several levels and regimens, was used for fitting the BMD component. Bone marker and LSBMD data extracted from the literature described on/off-treatment effects of denosumab over 48 months [Miller, P.D. et al. Effect of denosumab on bone density and turnover in postmenopausal women with low bone mass after long-term continued, discontinued, and restarting of therapy: a randomized blinded phase 2 clinical trial. Bone 43, 222–229 (2008)]. An indirect model linking bone markers to LSBMD was embedded in the existing MSPM, reasonably predicting nonlinear increases in LSBMD during treatment (24 months); LSBMD declines following discontinuation and increases upon treatment reinstitution. This study demonstrates the utility of MSPM extension to describe a phenomena of interest not originally in a model, and the ability of this updated MSPM to predict nonlinear longitudinal changes in the clinically relevant endpoint, LSBMD, with denosumab treatment.