Longitudinal metabolomics of increasing body-mass index and waist-hip ratio reveals two dynamic patterns of obesity pandemic

Bayesian semiparametric inference in longitudinal metabolomics data

The article is motivated by an application to the EarlyBird cohort study aiming to explore how anthropometrics and clinical and metabolic processes are associated with obesity and glucose control during childhood. There is interest in inferring the relationship between dynamically changing and high-dimensional metabolites and a longitudinal response. Important aspects of the analysis include the selection of the important set of metabolites and the accommodation of missing data in both response and covariate values. With this motivation, we propose a flexible but parsimonious Bayesian semiparametric joint model for the outcome and the covariate generating processes, making novel use of nonparametric mean processes, latent factor models, and different classes of continuous shrinkage priors. The proposed approach efficiently addresses daunting dimensionality challenges, simplifies imputation tasks, and automates the selection of important predictors. Implementation via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm appropriately accounts for uncertainty in various aspects of the analysis. Simulation experiments illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology. The application to the EarlyBird cohort study illustrates its practical utility in enabling statistical integration of different molecular processes involved in glucose production and metabolism. From this study, we were able to show that glucose levels from 5 to 16 years of age are associated with different circulating levels of metabolites in the blood serum and can be fitted over time for a wide range of shapes of trajectories. The metabolites contributing the most to explaining glucose trajectories tend to be involved in different central energy metabolomic pathways. The methodology provides a tool to generate new hypotheses related to obesity and glucose control during childhood and adolescence.

Mendelian randomization reveals that abnormal lipid metabolism mediates the causal relationship between body mass index and keratoconus

Previous studies suggest that a high body mass index (BMI) may be a risk factor for keratoconus (KC), but the causal relationship remains unclear. This study used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate this connection and explore the mediating role of circulating serum metabolites and inflammatory factors in this association. Two-sample MR analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between BMI and KC. The study employed a two-step MR approach to evaluate the mediating roles of 91 inflammatory markers and 249 serum metabolites in the BMI-KC relationship. Inverse variance weighting (IVW) was the primary method, and multiple sensitivity analyses were performed to ensure robustness. IVW analysis revealed a positive causal relationship between BMI and KC (OR IVW = 1.811, 95% CI 1.005-3.262, P = 0.048). Although IL-12β and IL-4 were causally associated with KC, they did not mediate the BMI-KC relationship. Five serum metabolites were identified as potential mediators, with HDL cholesterol and triglyceride ratios showing significance. This study clarified the causal relationship between high BMI and KC, suggesting that high BMI may induce KC through lipid metabolism abnormalities. These findings underscore the importance of managing BMI for KC prevention.

Metabolic liability for weight gain in early adulthood

While weight gain is associated with a host of chronic illnesses, efforts in obesity have relied on single "snapshots" of body mass index (BMI) to guide genetic and molecular discovery. Here, we study >2,000 young adults with metabolomics and proteomics to identify a metabolic liability to weight gain in early adulthood. Using longitudinal regression and penalized regression, we identify a metabolic signature for weight liability, associated with a 2.6% (2.0%-3.2%, p = 7.5 × 10-19) gain in BMI over ≈20 years per SD higher score, after comprehensive adjustment. Identified molecules specified mechanisms of weight gain, including hunger and appetite regulation, energy expenditure, gut microbial metabolism, and host interaction with external exposure. Integration of longitudinal and concurrent measures in regression with Mendelian randomization highlights the complexity of metabolic regulation of weight gain, suggesting caution in interpretation of epidemiologic or genetic effect estimates traditionally used in metabolic research.

Influence of age and sex on longitudinal metabolic profiles and body weight trajectories in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Accurate characterization of how age influences body weight and metabolism at different stages of life is important for understanding ageing processes. Here, we explore observational longitudinal associations between metabolic health and weight from the fifth to the seventh decade of life, using carefully adjusted statistical designs.

METHODS

Body measures and biochemical data from blood and urine (220 measures) across two visits were available from 10 104 UK Biobank participants. Participants were divided into stable (within ±4% per decade), weight loss and weight gain categories. Final subgroups were metabolically matched at baseline (48% women, follow-up 4.3 years, ages 41-70; n = 3368 per subgroup) and further stratified by the median age of 59.3 years and sex.

RESULTS

Pulse pressure, haemoglobin A1c and cystatin-C tracked ageing consistently (P < 0.0001). In women under 59, age-associated increases in citrate, pyruvate, alkaline phosphatase and calcium were observed along with adverse changes across lipoprotein measures, fatty acid species and liver enzymes (P < 0.0001). Principal component analysis revealed a qualitative sex difference in the temporal relationship between body weight and metabolism: weight loss was not associated with systemic metabolic improvement in women, whereas both age strata converged consistently towards beneficial (weight loss) or adverse (weight gain) phenotypes in men.

CONCLUSIONS

We report longitudinal ageing trends for 220 metabolic measures in absolute concentrations, many of which have not been described for older individuals before. Our results also revealed a fundamental dynamic sex divergence that we speculate is caused by menopause-driven metabolic deterioration in women.

Clinical and biochemical associations of urinary metabolites: quantitative epidemiological approach on renal-cardiometabolic biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Urinary metabolomics has demonstrated considerable potential to assess kidney function and its metabolic corollaries in health and disease. However, applications in epidemiology remain sparse due to technical challenges.

METHODS

We added 17 metabolites to an open-access urinary nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics platform, extending the panel to 61 metabolites (n = 994). We also introduced automated quantification for 11 metabolites, extending the panel to 12 metabolites (+creatinine). Epidemiological associations between these 12 metabolites and 49 clinical measures were studied in three independent cohorts (up to 5989 participants). Detailed regression analyses with various confounding factors are presented for body mass index (BMI) and smoking.

RESULTS

Sex-specific population reference concentrations and distributions are provided for 61 urinary metabolites (419 men and 575 women), together with methodological intra-assay metabolite variations as well as the biological intra-individual and epidemiological population variations. For the 12 metabolites, 362 associations were found. These are mostly novel and reflect potential molecular proxies to estimate kidney function, as the associations cannot be simply explained by estimated glomerular filtration rate. Unspecific renal excretion results in leakage of amino acids (and glucose) to urine in all individuals. Seven urinary metabolites associated with smoking, providing questionnaire-independent proxy measures of smoking status in epidemiological studies. Common confounders did not affect metabolite associations with smoking, but insulin had a clear effect on most associations with BMI, including strong effects on 2-hydroxyisobutyrate, valine, alanine, trigonelline and hippurate.

CONCLUSIONS

Urinary metabolomics provides new insight on kidney function and related biomarkers on the renal-cardiometabolic system, supporting large-scale applications in epidemiology.

Novel subgroups of obesity and their association with outcomes: a data-driven cluster analysis

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with various complications and decreased life expectancy, and substantial heterogeneity in complications and outcomes has been observed. However, the subgroups of obesity have not yet been clearly defined. This study aimed to identify the subgroups of obesity especially those for target of interventions by cluster analysis.

METHODS

In this study, an unsupervised, data-driven cluster analysis of 9,494 individuals with obesity (body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m2) was performed using the data of ICD-10, drug, and medical procedure from the healthcare claims database. The prevalence and clinical characteristics of the complications such as diabetes in each cluster were evaluated using the prescription records. Additionally, renal and life prognoses were compared among the clusters.

RESULTS

We identified seven clusters characterised by different combinations of complications and several complications were observed exclusively in each cluster. Notably, the poorest prognosis was observed in individuals who rarely visited a hospital after being diagnosed with obesity, followed by those with cardiovascular complications and diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we identified seven subgroups of individuals with obesity using population-based data-driven cluster analysis. We clearly demonstrated important target subgroups for intervention as well as a metabolically healthy obesity group.