Temporal profiles of avalanches on networks

Hybrid universality classes of systemic cascades

Cascades are self-reinforcing processes underlying the systemic risk of many complex systems. Understanding the universal aspects of these phenomena is of fundamental interest, yet typically bound to numerical observations in ad-hoc models and limited insights. Here, we develop a unifying approach that reveals two distinct universality classes of cascades determined by the global symmetry of the cascading process. We provide hyperscaling arguments predicting hybrid critical phenomena characterized by a combination of both mean-field spinodal exponents and d-dimensional corrections, and show how parity invariance influences the geometry and lifetime of critical avalanches. Our theory applies to a wide range of networked systems in arbitrary dimensions, as we demonstrate by simulations encompassing classic and novel cascade models, revealing universal principles of cascade critical phenomena amenable to experimental validation.

Avalanche shapes in the fiber bundle model

We study the temporal evolution of avalanches in the fiber bundle model of disordered solids, when the model is gradually driven towards the critical breakdown point. We use two types of loading protocols: (i) quasistatic loading and (ii) loading by a discrete amount. In the quasistatic loading, where the load is increased by the minimum amount needed to initiate an avalanche, the temporal shapes of avalanches are asymmetric away from the critical point and become symmetric as the critical point is approached. A measure of asymmetry (A) follows a universal form A∼(σ-σ_{c})^{θ}, with θ≈0.25, where σ is the load per fiber and σ_{c} is the critical load per fiber. This behavior is independent of the disorder present in the system in terms of the individual failure threshold values. Thus it is possible to use this asymmetry measure as a precursor to imminent failure. For the case of discrete loading, the load is always increased by a fixed amount. The dynamics of the model in this case can be solved in the mean field limit. It shows that the avalanche shapes always remain asymmetric. We also present a variable range load sharing version of this case, where the results remain qualitatively similar.

Scaling laws of failure dynamics on complex networks

The topology of the network of load transmitting connections plays an essential role in the cascading failure dynamics of complex systems driven by the redistribution of load after local breakdown events. In particular, as the network structure is gradually tuned from regular to completely random a transition occurs from the localized to mean field behavior of failure spreading. Based on finite size scaling in the fiber bundle model of failure phenomena, here we demonstrate that outside the localized regime, the load bearing capacity and damage tolerance on the macro-scale, and the statistics of clusters of failed nodes on the micro-scale obey scaling laws with exponents which depend on the topology of the load transmission network and on the degree of disorder of the strength of nodes. Most notably, we show that the spatial structure of damage governs the emergence of the localized to mean field transition: as the network gets gradually randomized failed clusters formed on locally regular patches merge through long range links generating a percolation like transition which reduces the load concentration on the network. The results may help to design network structures with an improved robustness against cascading failure.

Parabolic avalanche scaling in the synchronization of cortical cell assemblies

Neurons in the cerebral cortex fire coincident action potentials during ongoing activity and in response to sensory inputs. These synchronized cell assemblies are fundamental to cortex function, yet basic dynamical aspects of their size and duration are largely unknown. Using 2-photon imaging of neurons in the superficial cortex of awake mice, we show that synchronized cell assemblies organize as scale-invariant avalanches that quadratically grow with duration. The quadratic avalanche scaling was only found for correlated neurons, required temporal coarse-graining to compensate for spatial subsampling of the imaged cortex, and suggested cortical dynamics to be critical as demonstrated in simulations of balanced E/I-networks. The corresponding time course of an inverted parabola with exponent of χ = 2 described cortical avalanches of coincident firing for up to 5 s duration over an area of 1 mm². These parabolic avalanches maximized temporal complexity in the ongoing activity of prefrontal and somatosensory cortex and in visual responses of primary visual cortex. Our results identify a scale-invariant temporal order in the synchronization of highly diverse cortical cell assemblies in the form of parabolic avalanches.

Diffusion capacity of single and interconnected networks

Understanding diffusive processes in networks is a significant challenge in complexity science. Networks possess a diffusive potential that depends on their topological configuration, but diffusion also relies on the process and initial conditions. This article presents Diffusion Capacity, a concept that measures a node's potential to diffuse information based on a distance distribution that considers both geodesic and weighted shortest paths and dynamical features of the diffusion process. Diffusion Capacity thoroughly describes the role of individual nodes during a diffusion process and can identify structural modifications that may improve diffusion mechanisms. The article defines Diffusion Capacity for interconnected networks and introduces Relative Gain, which compares the performance of a node in a single structure versus an interconnected one. The method applies to a global climate network constructed from surface air temperature data, revealing a significant change in diffusion capacity around the year 2000, suggesting a loss of the planet's diffusion capacity that could contribute to the emergence of more frequent climatic events.

Critical avalanches of susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics in finite networks

We investigate the avalanche temporal statistics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model when the dynamics is critical and takes place on finite random networks. By considering numerical simulations on annealed topologies we show that the survival probability always exhibits three distinct dynamical regimes. Size-dependent crossover timescales separating them scale differently for homogeneous and for heterogeneous networks. The phenomenology can be qualitatively understood based on known features of the SIS dynamics on networks. A fully quantitative approach based on Langevin theory is shown to perfectly reproduce the results for homogeneous networks, while failing in the heterogeneous case. The analysis is extended to quenched random networks, which behave in agreement with the annealed case for strongly homogeneous and strongly heterogeneous networks.

Turing's cascade instability supports the coordination of the mind, brain, and behavior

Turing inspired a computer metaphor of the mind and brain that has been handy and has spawned decades of empirical investigation, but he did much more and offered behavioral and cognitive sciences another metaphor-that of the cascade. The time has come to confront Turing's cascading instability, which suggests a geometrical framework driven by power laws and can be studied using multifractal formalism and multiscale probability density function analysis. Here, we review a rapidly growing body of scientific investigations revealing signatures of cascade instability and their consequences for a perceiving, acting, and thinking organism. We review work related to executive functioning (planning to act), postural control (bodily poise for turning plans into action), and effortful perception (action to gather information in a single modality and action to blend multimodal information). We also review findings on neuronal avalanches in the brain, specifically about neural participation in body-wide cascades. Turing's cascade instability blends the mind, brain, and behavior across space and time scales and provides an alternative to the dominant computer metaphor.

Finite-size scaling of critical avalanches

We examine probability distribution for avalanche sizes observed in self-organized critical systems. While a power-law distribution with a cutoff because of finite system size is typical behavior, a systematic investigation reveals that it may also decrease with increasing the system size at a fixed avalanche size. We implement the scaling method and identify scaling functions. The data collapse ensures a correct estimation of the critical exponents and distinguishes two exponents related to avalanche size and system size. Our simple analysis provides striking implications. While the exact value for avalanches size exponent remains elusive for the prototype sandpile on a square lattice, we suggest the exponent should be 1. The simulation results represent that the distribution shows a logarithmic system size dependence, consistent with the normalization condition. We also argue that for the train or Oslo sandpile model with bulk drive, the avalanche size exponent is slightly less than 1, which differs significantly from the previous estimate of 1.11.

Temporal evolution of failure avalanches of the fiber bundle model on complex networks

We investigate how the interplay of the topology of the network of load transmitting connections and the amount of disorder of the strength of the connected elements determines the temporal evolution of failure cascades driven by the redistribution of load following local failure events. We use the fiber bundle model of materials' breakdown assigning fibers to the sites of a square lattice, which is then randomly rewired using the Watts-Strogatz technique. Gradually increasing the rewiring probability, we demonstrate that the bundle undergoes a transition from the localized to the mean field universality class of breakdown phenomena. Computer simulations revealed that both the size and the duration of failure cascades are power law distributed on all network topologies with a crossover between two regimes of different exponents. The temporal evolution of cascades is described by a parabolic profile with a right handed asymmetry, which implies that cascades start slowly, then accelerate, and eventually stop suddenly. The degree of asymmetry proved to be characteristic of the network topology gradually decreasing with increasing rewiring probability. Reducing the variance of fibers' strength, the exponents of the size and the duration distribution of cascades increase in the localized regime of the failure process, while the localized to mean field transition becomes more abrupt. The consistency of the results is supported by a scaling analysis relating the characteristic exponents of the statistics and dynamics of cascades.

Multitype branching process method for modeling complex contagion on clustered networks

Complex contagion adoption dynamics are characterized by a node being more likely to adopt after multiple network neighbors have adopted. We show how to construct multitype branching processes to approximate complex contagion adoption dynamics on networks with clique-based clustering. This involves tracking the evolution of a cascade via different classes of clique motifs that account for the different numbers of active, inactive, and removed nodes. This discrete-time model assumes that active nodes become immediately and certainly removed in the next time step. This description allows for extensive Monte Carlo simulations (which are faster than network-based simulations), accurate analytical calculation of cascade sizes, determination of critical behavior, and other quantities of interest.

Power-law and log-normal avalanche size statistics in random growth processes

We study the avalanche statistics observed in a minimal random growth model. The growth is governed by a reproduction rate obeying a probability distribution with finite mean a[over ¯] and variance v_{a}. These two control parameters determine if the avalanche size tends to a stationary distribution (finite scale statistics with finite mean and variance, or power-law tailed statistics with exponent ∈(1,3]), or instead to a nonstationary regime with log-normal statistics. Numerical results and their statistical analysis are presented for a uniformly distributed growth rate, which are corroborated and generalized by mathematical results. The latter show that the numerically observed avalanche regimes exist for a wide family of growth rate distributions, and they provide a precise definition of the boundaries between the three regimes.

Role-Aware Information Spread in Online Social Networks

Understanding the complex process of information spread in online social networks (OSNs) enables the efficient maximization/minimization of the spread of useful/harmful information. Users assume various roles based on their behaviors while engaging with information in these OSNs. Recent reviews on information spread in OSNs have focused on algorithms and challenges for modeling the local node-to-node cascading paths of viral information. However, they neglected to analyze non-viral information with low reach size that can also spread globally beyond OSN edges (links) via non-neighbors through, for example, pushed information via content recommendation algorithms. Previous reviews have also not fully considered user roles in the spread of information. To address these gaps, we: (i) provide a comprehensive survey of the latest studies on role-aware information spread in OSNs, also addressing the different temporal spreading patterns of viral and non-viral information; (ii) survey modeling approaches that consider structural, non-structural, and hybrid features, and provide a taxonomy of these approaches; (iii) review software platforms for the analysis and visualization of role-aware information spread in OSNs; and (iv) describe how information spread models enable useful applications in OSNs such as detecting influential users. We conclude by highlighting future research directions for studying information spread in OSNs, accounting for dynamic user roles.

AVALANCHES IN A SHORT-MEMORY EXCITABLE NETWORK

We study propagation of avalanches in a certain excitable network. The model is a particular case of the one introduced in [24], and is mathematically equivalent to an endemic variation of the Reed-Frost epidemic model introduced in [28]. Two types of heuristic approximation are frequently used for models of this type in applications, a branching process for avalanches of a small size at the beginning of the process and a deterministic dynamical system once the avalanche spreads to a significant fraction of a large network. In this paper we prove several results concerning the exact relation between the avalanche model and these limits, including rates of convergence and rigorous bounds for common characteristics of the model.

Environmental Services: A New Approach Toward Addressing Sustainable Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa

The physical environment provides resources and specific types of environmental services relevant to the maintenance of human livelihoods globally and with specific reference to sub-Saharan Africa, including soils, food, and water systems. Previous studies on the shared nexus of such resources commonly view these as self-contained systems operating independent of their physical contexts provided by landscape-scale geomorphology and its related processes. This study critically examines the viewpoints adopted by such nexus studies with specific reference to sub-Saharan Africa, arguing that these studies are reductive, considering only the shared disciplinary overlap (nexus) and not their wider contexts, and are based on only a limited understanding of the workings of physical systems. This study argues that considering the attributes of the physical landscape and its provision of environmental services provides a broader and scientifically-informed context for understanding of interlinked issues such as relationships between soil–food–water systems. Framing such “nexus” studies in this wider context can derive a better understanding of the connections between different elements such as soil, food, and water, amongst others, and with respect to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. The concept of environmental services is therefore a more powerful tool to examine both the connections between physical and human environmental processes and properties in sub-Saharan Africa, and to address overarching environmental issues such as land degradation, soil erosion loss, water scarcity, and impacts of climate change.

Time-dependent branching processes: a model of oscillating neuronal avalanches

Recently, neuronal avalanches have been observed to display oscillations, a phenomenon regarded as the co-existence of a scale-free behaviour (the avalanches close to criticality) and scale-dependent dynamics (the oscillations). Ordinary continuous-time branching processes with constant extinction and branching rates are commonly used as models of neuronal activity, yet they lack any such time-dependence. In the present work, we extend a basic branching process by allowing the extinction rate to oscillate in time as a new model to describe cortical dynamics. By means of a perturbative field theory, we derive relevant observables in closed form. We support our findings by quantitative comparison to numerics and qualitative comparison to available experimental results.

Impact of contact preference on social contagions on complex networks

Preferential contact process limited by contact capacity remarkably affects the spreading dynamics on complex networks, but the influence of this preferential contact in social contagions has not been fully explored. To this end, we propose a behavior spreading model based on the mechanism of preferential contact. The probability in the model that an adopted individual contacts and tries to transmit the behavioral information to one of his/her neighbors depends on the neighbor's degree. Besides, a preferential exponent determines the tendency to contact with either small-degree or large-degree nodes. We use a dynamic messaging method to describe this complex contagion process and verify that the method is accurate to predict the spreading dynamics by numerical simulations on strongly heterogeneous networks. We find that the preferential contact mechanism leads to a crossover phenomenon in the growth of final adoption size. By reducing the preferential exponent, we observe a change from a continuous growth to an explosive growth and then to a continuous growth with the transmission rate of behavioral information. Moreover, we find that there is an optimal preferential exponent which maximizes the final adoption size at a fixed information transmission rate, and this optimal preferential exponent decreases with the information transmission rate. The used theory can be extended to other types of dynamics, and our findings provide useful and general insights into social contagion processes in the real world.

Local/Global contagion of viral/non-viral information: Analysis of contagion spread in online social networks

Contagion in online social networks (OSN) occurs when users are exposed to information disseminated by other users. Studies of contagion are largely devoted to the spread of viral information and to local neighbor-to-neighbor contagion. However, many contagion events can be non-viral in the sense of being unpopular with low reach size, or global in the sense of being exposed to non-adjacent neighbors. This study aims to investigate the differences between local and global contagion and the different contagion patterns of viral vs. non-viral information. We analyzed three datasets and found significant differences between the temporal spreading patterns of local contagion compared to global contagion. Based on our analysis, we can successfully predict whether a user will be infected by either a local or a global contagion. We achieve an F₁-score of 0.87 for non-viral information and an F₁-score of 0.84 for viral information. We propose a novel method for early detection of the viral potential of an information nugget and investigate the spreading of viral and non-viral information. In addition, we analyze both viral and non-viral contagion of a topic. Differentiating between local versus global contagion, as well as between viral versus non-viral information, provides a novel perspective and better understanding of information diffusion in OSNs.

Emergence of power laws in noncritical neuronal systems

Experimental and computational studies provide compelling evidence that neuronal systems are characterized by power-law distributions of neuronal avalanche sizes. This fact is interpreted as an indication that these systems are operating near criticality, and, in turn, typical properties of critical dynamical processes, such as optimal information transmission and stability, are attributed to neuronal systems. The purpose of this Rapid Communication is to show that the presence of power-law distributions for the size of neuronal avalanches is not a sufficient condition for the system to operate near criticality. Specifically, we consider a simplistic model of neuronal dynamics on networks and show that the degree distribution of the underlying neuronal network may trigger power-law distributions for neuronal avalanches even when the system is not in its critical regime. To certify and explain our findings we develop an analytical approach based on percolation theory and branching processes techniques.

Reentrant phase transitions in threshold driven contagion on multiplex networks

Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial, and biological networks. At odds with empirical observations, these models predict that single-layer unweighted networks become resistant to global cascades after reaching sufficient connectivity. We investigate threshold driven contagion on weight heterogeneous multiplex networks and show that they can remain susceptible to global cascades at any level of connectivity, and with increasing edge density pass through alternating phases of stability and instability in the form of reentrant phase transitions of contagion. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for the observation of large-scale contagion in highly connected but heterogeneous networks.

The scale-invariant, temporal profile of neuronal avalanches in relation to cortical γ-oscillations

Activity cascades are found in many complex systems. In the cortex, they arise in the form of neuronal avalanches that capture ongoing and evoked neuronal activities at many spatial and temporal scales. The scale-invariant nature of avalanches suggests that the brain is in a critical state, yet predictions from critical theory on the temporal unfolding of avalanches have yet to be confirmed in vivo. Here we show in awake nonhuman primates that the temporal profile of avalanches follows a symmetrical, inverted parabola spanning up to hundreds of milliseconds. This parabola constrains how avalanches initiate locally, extend spatially and shrink as they evolve in time. Importantly, parabolas of different durations can be collapsed with a scaling exponent close to 2 supporting critical generational models of neuronal avalanches. Spontaneously emerging, transient γ-oscillations coexist with and modulate these avalanche parabolas thereby providing a temporal segmentation to inherently scale-invariant, critical dynamics. Our results identify avalanches and oscillations as dual principles in the temporal organization of brain activity.

Identifying epidemic threshold by temporal profile of outbreaks on networks

Identifying epidemic threshold is of great significance in preventing and controlling disease spreading on real-world networks. Previous studies have proposed different theoretical and numerical approaches to determine the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, but the numerical study of the critical points on networks by utilizing temporal characteristics of epidemic outbreaks is still lacking. Here, we study the temporal profile of epidemic outbreaks, i.e., the average avalanche shapes of a fixed duration. At the critical point, the rescaled average terminating and nonterminating avalanche shapes for different durations collapse onto two universal curves, respectively, while the average number of subsequent events essentially remains constant. We propose two numerical measures to determine the epidemic threshold by analyzing the convergence of the rescaled average nonterminating avalanche shapes for varying durations and the stability of the average number of subsequent events, respectively. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that our methods can accurately identify the numerical threshold for the SIR dynamics on synthetic and empirical networks. Compared with traditional numerical measures, our methods are more efficient due to the constriction of observation duration and thus are more applicable to large-scale networks. This work helps one to understand the temporal profile of disease propagation and would promote further studies on the phase transition of epidemic dynamics.

Influence of augmented humans in online interactions during voting events

The advent of the digital era provided a fertile ground for the development of virtual societies, complex systems influencing real-world dynamics. Understanding online human behavior and its relevance beyond the digital boundaries is still an open challenge. Here we show that online social interactions during a massive voting event can be used to build an accurate map of real-world political parties and electoral ranks for Italian elections in 2018. We provide evidence that information flow and collective attention are often driven by a special class of highly influential users, that we name "augmented humans", who exploit thousands of automated agents, also known as bots, for enhancing their online influence. We show that augmented humans generate deep information cascades, to the same extent of news media and other broadcasters, while they uniformly infiltrate across the full range of identified groups. Digital augmentation represents the cyber-physical counterpart of the human desire to acquire power within social systems.

Pattern phase diagram of spiking neurons on spatial networks

We study an abstracted model of neuronal activity via numerical simulation and report spatiotemporal pattern formation and criticallike dynamics. A population of pulse coupled, discretized, relaxation oscillators is simulated over networks with varying edge density and spatial embeddedness. For intermediate edge density and sufficiently strong spatial embeddedness, we observe a spatiotemporal pattern in the field of oscillator phases, visually resembling the surface of a frothing liquid. Increasing the edge density results in a distribution of neuronal avalanche sizes which follows a power law with exponent one (Zipf's law). Further increasing edge density yields metastability between pattern formation and synchronization, before transitioning entirely into synchrony.

Diffusion in networks and the virtue of burstiness

Whether an idea, information, or infection diffuses throughout a society depends not only on the structure of the network of interactions, but also on the timing of those interactions. People are not always available to interact with others, and people differ in the timing of when they are active. Some people are active for long periods and then inactive for long periods, while others switch more frequently from being active to inactive and back. We show that maximizing diffusion in classic contagion processes requires heterogeneous activity patterns across agents. In particular, maximizing diffusion comes from mixing two extreme types of people: those who are stationary for long periods of time, changing from active to inactive or back only infrequently, and others who alternate frequently between being active and inactive.