1
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Tan F, Horton BP, Ke L, Li T, Quye-Sawyer J, Lim JTY, Peng D, Aw Z, Wee SJ, Yeo JY, Haigh I, Wang X, Aung LT, Mitchell A, Sarkawi G, Li X, Tan NS, Meltzner AJ. Late Holocene relative sea-level records from coral microatolls in Singapore. Sci Rep 2024; 14:13458. [PMID: 38862568 PMCID: PMC11166974 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62937-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) data are important to understand the drivers of RSL change, but there is a lack of precise RSL records from the Sunda Shelf. Here, we produced a Late Holocene RSL reconstruction from coral microatolls in Singapore, demonstrating for the first time the utility of Diploastrea heliopora microatolls as sea-level indicators. We produced 12 sea-level index points and three marine limiting data with a precision of < ± 0.2 m (2σ) and < ± 26 years uncertainties (95% highest density region). The data show a RSL fall of 0.31 ± 0.18 m between 2.8 and 0.6 thousand years before present (kyr BP), at rates between - 0.1 ± 0.3 and - 0.2 ± 0.7 mm/year. Surface profiles of the fossil coral microatolls suggest fluctuations in the rate of RSL fall: (1) stable between 2.8 and 2.5 kyr BP; (2) rising at ~ 1.8 kyr BP; and (3) stable from 0.8 to 0.6 kyr BP. The microatoll record shows general agreement with published, high-quality RSL data within the Sunda Shelf. Comparison to a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models indicate preference for lower viscosities in the mantle. However, more high quality and precise Late Holocene RSL data are needed to further evaluate the drivers of RSL change in the region and better constrain GIA model parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fangyi Tan
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
| | - Benjamin P Horton
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Lin Ke
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Tanghua Li
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Jennifer Quye-Sawyer
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Joanne T Y Lim
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Dongju Peng
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Zihan Aw
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Shi Jun Wee
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Jing Ying Yeo
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Ivan Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Xianfeng Wang
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Lin Thu Aung
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Andrew Mitchell
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Gina Sarkawi
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Xinnan Li
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Nurul Syafiqah Tan
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Aron J Meltzner
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
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2
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Cathles L, Fjeldskar W, Lenardic A, Romanowicz B, Seales J, Richards M. Influence of the asthenosphere on earth dynamics and evolution. Sci Rep 2023; 13:13367. [PMID: 37591899 PMCID: PMC10435468 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39973-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 08/19/2023] Open
Abstract
The existence of a thin, weak asthenospheric layer beneath Earth's lithospheric plates is consistent with existing geological and geophysical constraints, including Pleistocene glacio-isostatic adjustment, modeling of gravity anomalies, studies of seismic anisotropy, and post-seismic rebound. Mantle convection models suggest that a pronounced weak zone beneath the upper thermal boundary layer (lithosphere) may be essential to the plate tectonic style of convection found on Earth. The asthenosphere is likely related to partial melting and the presence of water in the sub-lithospheric mantle, further implying that the long-term evolution of the Earth may be controlled by thermal regulation and volatile recycling that maintain a geotherm that approaches the wet mantle solidus at asthenospheric depths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lawrence Cathles
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA
| | | | | | - Barbara Romanowicz
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, USA
| | - Johnny Seales
- Department of Earth Science, Rice University, Houston, USA
| | - Mark Richards
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
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3
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Cao R, Hansen LN, Thom CA, Wallis D. An apparatus for measuring nonlinear viscoelasticity of minerals at high temperature. THE REVIEW OF SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS 2021; 92:073902. [PMID: 34340449 DOI: 10.1063/5.0035699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
We describe a high-temperature, uniaxial creep apparatus designed to investigate nonlinear attenuation of materials over a wide range of temperatures (25-1300 °C) using forced oscillations combined with a bias stress. This apparatus is primarily designed for investigation of minerals and rocks with high melting temperatures. An oscillatory compressional stress is used to determine attenuation and Young's modulus at frequencies of 10-1-102 Hz and high stress amplitudes (>0.1 MPa). Large bias stresses are applied in addition to the oscillatory stresses such that attenuation tests are conducted simultaneously with the ongoing creep. The complex compliance of the apparatus was characterized by conducting calibration tests on orientated crystals of sapphire. The real part of the apparatus compliance exhibits a dependence on sample length and frequency, whereas the imaginary part is only dependent on frequency. The complex compliance is not dependent on the oscillation amplitude or the bias stress. We assess the accuracy and precision of this calibration by comparing measurements of the attenuation and Young's modulus of aluminum and acrylic to previously published values. We outline a set of criteria defining the conditions over which this apparatus can precisely determine the attenuation and Young's modulus of a sample based on the sample length and expected values of attenuation and Young's modulus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ri Cao
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3AN, United Kingdom
| | - Lars N Hansen
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455, USA
| | - Christopher A Thom
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3AN, United Kingdom
| | - David Wallis
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, United Kingdom
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4
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Wallis D, Hansen LN, Wilkinson AJ, Lebensohn RA. Dislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3496. [PMID: 34108476 PMCID: PMC8190305 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23633-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in stress applied to mantle rocks, such as those imposed by earthquakes, commonly induce a period of transient creep, which is often modelled based on stress transfer among slip systems due to grain interactions. However, recent experiments have demonstrated that the accumulation of stresses among dislocations is the dominant cause of strain hardening in olivine at temperatures ≤600 °C, raising the question of whether the same process contributes to transient creep at higher temperatures. Here, we demonstrate that olivine samples deformed at 25 °C or 1150–1250 °C both preserve stress heterogeneities of ~1 GPa that are imparted by dislocations and have correlation lengths of ~1 μm. The similar stress distributions formed at these different temperatures indicate that accumulation of stresses among dislocations also provides a contribution to transient creep at high temperatures. The results motivate a new generation of models that capture these intragranular processes and may refine predictions of evolving mantle viscosity over the earthquake cycle. Models of the viscosity evolution of mantle rocks are central to analyses of postseismic deformation but constraints on underlying physical processes are lacking. Here, the authors present measurements of microscale stress heterogeneity in olivine suggesting that long-range dislocation interactions contribute to viscosity evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Wallis
- Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. .,Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
| | - Lars N Hansen
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
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5
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Ivins ER, Caron L, Adhikari S, Larour E, Scheinert M. A linear viscoelasticity for decadal to centennial time scale mantle deformation. REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS. PHYSICAL SOCIETY (GREAT BRITAIN) 2020; 83:106801. [PMID: 32629433 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6633/aba346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The extended Burgers material (EBM) model provides a linear viscoelastic theory for interpreting a variety of rock deformation phenomena in geophysics, playing an increasingly important role in parameterizing laboratory data, providing seismic wave velocity and attenuation interpretations, and in analyses of solid planetary tidal dispersion and quality factor Q. At the heart of the EBM approach is the assumption of a distribution of relaxation spectra tied to rock grain boundary and interior granular mobility. Furthermore, the model incorporates an asymptotic long-term limiting behavior that is Maxwellian. Here we use the extensively developed linear theory of viscoelasticity to isolate those parameters of EBM that apply to both post-seismic relaxation processes involving flow of olivine rich upper mantle material and to studies of tides, where periods of forcing range from 12 h to 18.6 years. The isolated EBM parameters should also apply to theoretical and geodetic studies of glacial isostatic adjustment, especially when the initiation of continuous cryospheric surface unloading dates to the 20th or 21st century. Using analytical Laplace transformed solutions of Boussinesq's half-space load problem, we show that the effects of EBM transient rheology may have substantial influence on geodetic interpretations of unloading induced crustal motions even on time scales that are sub-decadal.
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Affiliation(s)
- E R Ivins
- Jet Propulsion Lab, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA, 91109
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6
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Barbot S. Mantle flow distribution beneath the California margin. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4456. [PMID: 32901037 PMCID: PMC7479605 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18260-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Although the surface deformation of tectonic plate boundaries is well determined by geological and geodetic measurements, the pattern of flow below the lithosphere remains poorly constrained. We use the crustal velocity field of the Plate Boundary Observatory to illuminate the distribution of horizontal flow beneath the California margin. At lower-crustal and upper-mantle depths, the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates is off-centered from the San Andreas fault, concentrated in a region that encompasses the trace of nearby active faults. A major step is associated with return flow below the Eastern California Shear Zone, leading to the extrusion of the Mojave block and a re-distribution of fault activity since the Pleistocene. Major earthquakes in California have occurred above the regions of current plastic strain accumulation. Deformation is mechanically coupled from the crust to the asthenosphere, with mantle flow overlaid by a kinematically consistent network of faults in the brittle crust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvain Barbot
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-0740, USA.
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7
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Weiss JR, Qiu Q, Barbot S, Wright TJ, Foster JH, Saunders A, Brooks BA, Bevis M, Kendrick E, Ericksen TL, Avery J, Smalley R, Cimbaro SR, Lenzano LE, Barón J, Báez JC, Echalar A. Illuminating subduction zone rheological properties in the wake of a giant earthquake. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaax6720. [PMID: 32064315 PMCID: PMC6989339 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax6720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2019] [Accepted: 10/25/2019] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Deformation associated with plate convergence at subduction zones is accommodated by a complex system involving fault slip and viscoelastic flow. These processes have proven difficult to disentangle. The 2010 M w 8.8 Maule earthquake occurred close to the Chilean coast within a dense network of continuously recording Global Positioning System stations, which provide a comprehensive history of surface strain. We use these data to assemble a detailed picture of a structurally controlled megathrust fault frictional patchwork and the three-dimensional rheological and time-dependent viscosity structure of the lower crust and upper mantle, all of which control the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation during postseismic deformation. These results enhance our understanding of subduction dynamics including the interplay of localized and distributed deformation during the subduction zone earthquake cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan R. Weiss
- COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Qiang Qiu
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
- Corresponding author.
| | - Sylvain Barbot
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Tim J. Wright
- COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - James H. Foster
- Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | | | | | - Michael Bevis
- School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Eric Kendrick
- School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Todd L. Ericksen
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, USA
| | - Jonathan Avery
- Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Robert Smalley
- Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - Sergio R. Cimbaro
- Dirección de Geodesia, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Luis E. Lenzano
- International Center for Earth Sciences, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Jorge Barón
- International Center for Earth Sciences, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Juan Carlos Báez
- Centro Sismológico Nacional, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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8
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Muto J, Moore JDP, Barbot S, Iinuma T, Ohta Y, Iwamori H. Coupled afterslip and transient mantle flow after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw1164. [PMID: 31579819 PMCID: PMC6760927 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2018] [Accepted: 09/03/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Modeling of postseismic deformation following great earthquakes has revealed the viscous structure of the mantle and the frictional properties of the fault interface. However, for giant megathrust events, viscoelastic flow and afterslip mechanically interplay with each other during the postseismic period. We explore the role of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation and their interaction in the aftermath of the 2011 M w (moment magnitude) 9.0 Tohoku earthquake based on a detailed model analysis of the postseismic deformation with laterally varying, experimentally constrained, rock rheology. Mechanical coupling between viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip notably modifies both the afterslip distribution and surface deformation. Thus, we highlight the importance of addressing mechanical coupling for long-term studies of postseismic relaxation, especially in the context of the geodynamics of the Japan trench across the seismic cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Muto
- Department of Earth Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - J. D. P. Moore
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - S. Barbot
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - T. Iinuma
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Y. Ohta
- Department of Geophysics, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - H. Iwamori
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan
- Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
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9
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Rapid mantle flow with power-law creep explains deformation after the 2011 Tohoku mega-quake. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1385. [PMID: 30914636 PMCID: PMC6435688 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08984-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2018] [Accepted: 01/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The deformation transient following large subduction zone earthquakes is thought to originate from the interaction of viscoelastic flow in the asthenospheric mantle and slip on the megathrust that are both accelerated by the sudden coseismic stress change. Here, we show that combining insight from laboratory solid-state creep and friction experiments can successfully explain the spatial distribution of surface deformation in the first few years after the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The transient reduction of effective viscosity resulting from dislocation creep in the asthenosphere explains the peculiar retrograde displacement revealed by seafloor geodesy, while the slip acceleration on the megathrust accounts for surface displacements on land and offshore outside the rupture area. Our results suggest that a rapid mantle flow takes place in the asthenosphere with temporarily decreased viscosity in response to large coseismic stress, presumably due to the activation of power-law creep during the post-earthquake period.
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10
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Tang CH, Hsu YJ, Barbot S, Moore JDP, Chang WL. Lower-crustal rheology and thermal gradient in the Taiwan orogenic belt illuminated by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaav3287. [PMID: 30820457 PMCID: PMC6392777 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav3287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2018] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The strength of the lithosphere controls tectonic evolution and seismic cycles, but how rocks deform under stress in their natural settings is usually unclear. We constrain the rheological properties beneath the Taiwan orogenic belt using the stress perturbation following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and fourteen-year postseismic geodetic observations. The evolution of stress and strain rate in the lower crust is best explained by a power-law Burgers rheology with rapid increases in effective viscosities from ~1017 to ~1019 Pa s within a year. The short-term modulation of the lower-crustal strength during the seismic cycle may alter the energy budget of mountain building. Incorporating the laboratory data and associated uncertainties, inferred thermal gradients suggest an eastward increase from 19.5±2.5°C/km in the Coastal Plain to 32±3°C/km in the Central Range. Geodetic observations may bridge the gap between laboratory and lithospheric scales to investigate crustal rheology and tectonic evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chi-Hsien Tang
- Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Ju Hsu
- Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Sylvain Barbot
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - James D. P. Moore
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Wu-Lung Chang
- Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
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11
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Melnick D, Li S, Moreno M, Cisternas M, Jara-Muñoz J, Wesson R, Nelson A, Báez JC, Deng Z. Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake. Nat Commun 2018; 9:3527. [PMID: 30166533 PMCID: PMC6117256 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (Mw = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Melnick
- Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, TAQUACh, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5111430, Chile. .,Millennium Nucleus The Seismic Cycle Along Subduction Zones, Valdivia, Concepción, Valparaíso., 5111430, Chile.
| | - Shaoyang Li
- GFZ Helmholtz Zentrum Potsdam, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.,Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa, 52242, IA, USA
| | - Marcos Moreno
- Millennium Nucleus The Seismic Cycle Along Subduction Zones, Valdivia, Concepción, Valparaíso., 5111430, Chile.,GFZ Helmholtz Zentrum Potsdam, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.,Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, 160-C, Chile
| | - Marco Cisternas
- Millennium Nucleus The Seismic Cycle Along Subduction Zones, Valdivia, Concepción, Valparaíso., 5111430, Chile.,Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 1020, Chile
| | - Julius Jara-Muñoz
- Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
| | - Robert Wesson
- Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, 80225, CO, USA
| | - Alan Nelson
- Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, 80225, CO, USA
| | - Juan Carlos Báez
- Centro Sismológico Nacional, Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Santiago, 8370448, Chile
| | - Zhiguo Deng
- GFZ Helmholtz Zentrum Potsdam, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
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