Stochastic search and joint fine-mapping increases accuracy and identifies previously unreported associations in immune-mediated diseases

BTS: scalable Bayesian Tissue Score for prioritizing GWAS variants and their functional contexts across omics data

Motivation

statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are widely used in fine-mapping and colocalization analyses to identify causal variants and their enrichment in functional contexts, such as affected cell types and genomic features. With the expansion of functional genomic (FG) datasets, which now include hundreds of thousands of tracks across various cell and tissue types, it is critical to establish scalable algorithms integrating thousands of diverse FG annotations with GWAS results.

Results

We propose BTS (Bayesian Tissue Score), a novel, highly efficient algorithm uniquely designed for 1) identifying affected cell types and functional elements (context-mapping) and 2) fine-mapping potentially causal variants in a context-specific manner using large collections of cell type-specific FG annotation tracks. BTS leverages GWAS summary statistics and annotation-specific Bayesian models to analyze genome-wide annotation tracks, including enhancers, open chromatin, and histone marks. We evaluated BTS on GWAS summary statistics for immune and cardiovascular traits, such as Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), and Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). Our results demonstrate that BTS is over 100x more efficient in estimating functional annotation effects and context-specific variant fine-mapping compared to existing methods. Importantly, this large-scale Bayesian approach prioritizes both known and novel annotations, cell types, genomic regions, and variants and provides valuable biological insights into the functional contexts of these diseases.

Availability and implementation

Docker image is available at https://hub.docker.com/r/wanglab/bts with pre-installed BTS R package (https://bitbucket.org/wanglab-upenn/BTS-R) and BTS GWAS summary statistics analysis pipeline (https://bitbucket.org/wanglab-upenn/bts-pipeline).

Discovery of new myositis genetic associations through leveraging other immune-mediated diseases

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful at finding associations between genetic variants and human traits, including the immune-mediated diseases (IMDs). However, the requirement of large sample sizes for discovery poses a challenge for learning about less common diseases, where increasing volunteer numbers might not be feasible. An example of this is myositis (or idiopathic inflammatory myopathies [IIM]s), a group of rare, heterogeneous autoimmune diseases affecting skeletal muscle and other organs, severely impairing life quality. Here, we applied a feature engineering method to borrow information from larger IMD GWASs to find new genetic associations with IIM and its subgroups. Combining this approach with two clustering methods, we found 17 IMDs genetically close to IIM, including some common comorbid conditions, such as systemic sclerosis and Sjögren's syndrome, as well as hypo- and hyperthyroidism. All IIM subtypes were genetically similar within this framework. Next, we colocalized IIM signals that overlapped IMD signals, and found seven potentially novel myositis associations mapped to immune-related genes, including BLK, IRF5/TNPO3, and ITK/HAVCR2, implicating a role for both B and T cells in IIM. This work proposes a new paradigm of genetic discovery in rarer diseases by leveraging information from more common IMD, and can be expanded to other conditions and traits beyond IMD.

Intergenic risk variant rs56258221 skews the fate of naive CD4+ T cells via miR4464-BACH2 interplay in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an immune-mediated liver disease of unknown pathogenesis, with a high risk to develop cirrhosis and malignancies. Functional dysregulation of T cells and association with genetic polymorphisms in T cell-related genes were previously reported for PSC. Here, we genotyped a representative PSC cohort for several disease-associated risk loci and identified rs56258221 (BACH2/MIR4464) to correlate with not only the peripheral blood T cell immunophenotype but also the functional capacities of naive CD4+ T (CD4+ TN) cells in people with PSC. Mechanistically, rs56258221 leads to an increased expression of miR4464, in turn causing attenuated translation of BACH2, a major gatekeeper of T cell quiescence. Thereby, the fate of CD4+ TN is skewed toward polarization into pro-inflammatory subsets. Clinically, people with PSC carrying rs56258221 show signs of accelerated disease progression. The data presented here highlight the importance of assigning functional outcomes to disease-associated genetic polymorphisms as potential drivers of diseases.

Fast and flexible joint fine-mapping of multiple traits via the Sum of Single Effects model

We introduce mvSuSiE, a multi-trait fine-mapping method for identifying putative causal variants from genetic association data (individual-level or summary data). mvSuSiE learns patterns of shared genetic effects from data, and exploits these patterns to improve power to identify causal SNPs. Comparisons on simulated data show that mvSuSiE is competitive in speed, power and precision with existing multi-trait methods, and uniformly improves on single-trait fine-mapping (SuSiE) in each trait separately. We applied mvSuSiE to jointly fine-map 16 blood cell traits using data from the UK Biobank. By jointly analyzing the traits and modeling heterogeneous effect sharing patterns, we discovered a much larger number of causal SNPs (>3,000) compared with single-trait fine-mapping, and with narrower credible sets. mvSuSiE also more comprehensively characterized the ways in which the genetic variants affect one or more blood cell traits; 68% of causal SNPs showed significant effects in more than one blood cell type.

Statistical methods for cis-Mendelian randomization with two-sample summary-level data

Mendelian randomization (MR) is the use of genetic variants to assess the existence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and an outcome of interest. Here, we focus on two-sample summary-data MR analyses with many correlated variants from a single gene region, particularly on cis-MR studies which use protein expression as a risk factor. Such studies must rely on a small, curated set of variants from the studied region; using all variants in the region requires inverting an ill-conditioned genetic correlation matrix and results in numerically unstable causal effect estimates. We review methods for variable selection and estimation in cis-MR with summary-level data, ranging from stepwise pruning and conditional analysis to principal components analysis, factor analysis, and Bayesian variable selection. In a simulation study, we show that the various methods have comparable performance in analyses with large sample sizes and strong genetic instruments. However, when weak instrument bias is suspected, factor analysis and Bayesian variable selection produce more reliable inferences than simple pruning approaches, which are often used in practice. We conclude by examining two case studies, assessing the effects of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and serum testosterone on coronary heart disease risk using variants in the HMGCR and SHBG gene regions, respectively.

Combining evidence from Mendelian randomization and colocalization: Review and comparison of approaches

Mendelian randomization and colocalization are two statistical approaches that can be applied to summarized data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to understand relationships between traits and diseases. However, despite similarities in scope, they are different in their objectives, implementation, and interpretation, in part because they were developed to serve different scientific communities. Mendelian randomization assesses whether genetic predictors of an exposure are associated with the outcome and interprets an association as evidence that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome, whereas colocalization assesses whether two traits are affected by the same or distinct causal variants. When considering genetic variants in a single genetic region, both approaches can be performed. While a positive colocalization finding typically implies a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate, the reverse is not generally true: there are several scenarios which would lead to a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate but lack evidence for colocalization. These include the existence of distinct but correlated causal variants for the exposure and outcome, which would violate the Mendelian randomization assumptions, and a lack of strong associations with the outcome. As colocalization was developed in the GWAS tradition, typically evidence for colocalization is concluded only when there is strong evidence for associations with both traits. In contrast, a non-zero estimate from Mendelian randomization can be obtained despite only nominally significant genetic associations with the outcome at the locus. In this review, we discuss how the two approaches can provide complementary information on potential therapeutic targets.

Genetic associations at regulatory phenotypes improve fine-mapping of causal variants for 12 immune-mediated diseases

The resolution of causal genetic variants informs understanding of disease biology. We used regulatory quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from the BLUEPRINT, GTEx and eQTLGen projects to fine-map putative causal variants for 12 immune-mediated diseases. We identify 340 unique loci that colocalize with high posterior probability (≥98%) with regulatory QTLs and apply Bayesian frameworks to fine-map associations at each locus. We show that fine-mapping credible sets derived from regulatory QTLs are smaller compared to disease summary statistics. Further, they are enriched for more functionally interpretable candidate causal variants and for putatively causal insertion/deletion (INDEL) polymorphisms. Finally, we use massively parallel reporter assays to evaluate candidate causal variants at the ITGA4 locus associated with inflammatory bowel disease. Overall, our findings suggest that fine-mapping applied to disease-colocalizing regulatory QTLs can enhance the discovery of putative causal disease variants and enhance insights into the underlying causal genes and molecular mechanisms.

Methods for statistical fine-mapping and their applications to auto-immune diseases

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of loci in the human genome that are associated with different traits, understanding the biological mechanisms underlying the association signals identified in GWAS remains challenging. Statistical fine-mapping is a method aiming to refine GWAS signals by evaluating which variant(s) are truly causal to the phenotype. Here, we review the types of statistical fine-mapping methods that have been widely used to date, with a focus on recently developed functionally informed fine-mapping (FIFM) methods that utilize functional annotations. We then systematically review the applications of statistical fine-mapping in autoimmune disease studies to highlight the value of statistical fine-mapping in biological contexts.

The flashfm approach for fine-mapping multiple quantitative traits

Joint fine-mapping that leverages information between quantitative traits could improve accuracy and resolution over single-trait fine-mapping. Using summary statistics, flashfm (flexible and shared information fine-mapping) fine-maps signals for multiple traits, allowing for missing trait measurements and use of related individuals. In a Bayesian framework, prior model probabilities are formulated to favour model combinations that share causal variants to capitalise on information between traits. Simulation studies demonstrate that both approaches produce broadly equivalent results when traits have no shared causal variants. When traits share at least one causal variant, flashfm reduces the number of potential causal variants by 30% compared with single-trait fine-mapping. In a Ugandan cohort with 33 cardiometabolic traits, flashfm gave a 20% reduction in the total number of potential causal variants from single-trait fine-mapping. Here we show flashfm is computationally efficient and can easily be deployed across publicly available summary statistics for signals in up to six traits.

Bayesian variable selection with a pleiotropic loss function in Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants as instruments to assess the existence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and an outcome. A Mendelian randomization analysis requires a set of genetic variants that are strongly associated with the risk factor and only associated with the outcome through their effect on the risk factor. We describe a novel variable selection algorithm for Mendelian randomization that can identify sets of genetic variants which are suitable in both these respects. Our algorithm is applicable in the context of two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization and employs a recently proposed theoretical extension of the traditional Bayesian statistics framework, including a loss function to penalize genetic variants that exhibit pleiotropic effects. The algorithm offers robust inference through the use of model averaging, as we illustrate by running it on a range of simulation scenarios and comparing it against established pleiotropy-robust Mendelian randomization methods. In a real-data application, we study the effect of systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the risk of suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a recent large-scale GWAS for blood pressure, we use 395 genetic variants for systolic and 391 variants for diastolic blood pressure. Both traits are shown to have significant risk-increasing effects on CHD risk.

Identifying causal variants by fine mapping across multiple studies

Increasingly large Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have yielded numerous variants associated with many complex traits, motivating the development of "fine mapping" methods to identify which of the associated variants are causal. Additionally, GWAS of the same trait for different populations are increasingly available, raising the possibility of refining fine mapping results further by leveraging different linkage disequilibrium (LD) structures across studies. Here, we introduce multiple study causal variants identification in associated regions (MsCAVIAR), a method that extends the popular CAVIAR fine mapping framework to a multiple study setting using a random effects model. MsCAVIAR only requires summary statistics and LD as input, accounts for uncertainty in association statistics using a multivariate normal model, allows for multiple causal variants at a locus, and explicitly models the possibility of different SNP effect sizes in different populations. We demonstrate the efficacy of MsCAVIAR in both a simulation study and a trans-ethnic, trans-biobank fine mapping analysis of High Density Lipoprotein (HDL).

A more accurate method for colocalisation analysis allowing for multiple causal variants

In genome-wide association studies (GWAS) it is now common to search for, and find, multiple causal variants located in close proximity. It has also become standard to ask whether different traits share the same causal variants, but one of the popular methods to answer this question, coloc, makes the simplifying assumption that only a single causal variant exists for any given trait in any genomic region. Here, we examine the potential of the recently proposed Sum of Single Effects (SuSiE) regression framework, which can be used for fine-mapping genetic signals, for use with coloc. SuSiE is a novel approach that allows evidence for association at multiple causal variants to be evaluated simultaneously, whilst separating the statistical support for each variant conditional on the causal signal being considered. We show this results in more accurate coloc inference than other proposals to adapt coloc for multiple causal variants based on conditioning. We therefore recommend that coloc be used in combination with SuSiE to optimise accuracy of colocalisation analyses when multiple causal variants exist.

Fine-mapping, trans-ancestral and genomic analyses identify causal variants, cells, genes and drug targets for type 1 diabetes

We report the largest and most diverse genetic study of type 1 diabetes (T1D) to date (61,427 participants), yielding 78 genome-wide-significant (P < 5 × 10-8) regions, including 36 that are new. We define credible sets of T1D-associated variants and show that they are enriched in immune-cell accessible chromatin, particularly CD4+ effector T cells. Using chromatin-accessibility profiling of CD4+ T cells from 115 individuals, we map chromatin-accessibility quantitative trait loci and identify five regions where T1D risk variants co-localize with chromatin-accessibility quantitative trait loci. We highlight rs72928038 in BACH2 as a candidate causal T1D variant leading to decreased enhancer accessibility and BACH2 expression in T cells. Finally, we prioritize potential drug targets by integrating genetic evidence, functional genomic maps and immune protein-protein interactions, identifying 12 genes implicated in T1D that have been targeted in clinical trials for autoimmune diseases. These findings provide an expanded genomic landscape for T1D.

The Genetic Control of the Rheumatic Heart: Closing the Genotype-Phenotype Gap

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a heritable inflammatory condition characterized by carditis, arthritis, and systemic disease. Although remaining neglected, the last 3 years has seen some promising advances in RHD research. Whilst it is clear that RHD can be triggered by recurrent group A streptococcal infections, the mechanisms driving clinical progression are still poorly understood. This review summarizes our current understanding of the genetics implicated in this process and the genetic determinants that predispose some people to RHD. The evidence demonstrating the importance of individual cell types and cellular states in delineating causal genetic variants is discussed, highlighting phenotype/genotype correlations where possible. Genetic fine mapping and functional studies in extreme phenotypes, together with large-scale omics studies including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, and metabolomics, are expected to provide new information not only on RHD but also on the mechanisms of other autoimmune diseases and facilitate future clinical translation.

GWAS for autoimmune Addison's disease identifies multiple risk loci and highlights AIRE in disease susceptibility

Autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD) is characterized by the autoimmune destruction of the adrenal cortex. Low prevalence and complex inheritance have long hindered successful genetic studies. We here report the first genome-wide association study on AAD, which identifies nine independent risk loci (P < 5 × 10^-8). In addition to loci implicated in lymphocyte function and development shared with other autoimmune diseases such as HLA, BACH2, PTPN22 and CTLA4, we associate two protein-coding alterations in Autoimmune Regulator (AIRE) with AAD. The strongest, p.R471C (rs74203920, OR = 3.4 (2.7-4.3), P = 9.0 × 10^-25) introduces an additional cysteine residue in the zinc-finger motif of the second PHD domain of the AIRE protein. This unbiased elucidation of the genetic contribution to development of AAD points to the importance of central immunological tolerance, and explains 35-41% of heritability (h²).

Fine-mapping genetic associations

Whilst thousands of genetic variants have been associated with human traits, identifying the subset of those variants that are causal requires a further 'fine-mapping' step. We review the basic fine-mapping approach, which is computationally fast and requires only summary data, but depends on an assumption of a single causal variant per associated region which is recognized as biologically unrealistic. We discuss different ways that the approach has been built upon to accommodate multiple causal variants in a region and to incorporate additional layers of functional annotation data. We further review methods for simultaneous fine-mapping of multiple datasets, either exploiting different linkage disequilibrium (LD) structures across ancestries or borrowing information between distinct but related traits. Finally, we look to the future and the opportunities that will be offered by increasingly accurate maps of causal variants for a multitude of human traits.

Localizing Components of Shared Transethnic Genetic Architecture of Complex Traits from GWAS Summary Data

Despite strong transethnic genetic correlations reported in the literature for many complex traits, the non-transferability of polygenic risk scores across populations suggests the presence of population-specific components of genetic architecture. We propose an approach that models GWAS summary data for one trait in two populations to estimate genome-wide proportions of population-specific/shared causal SNPs. In simulations across various genetic architectures, we show that our approach yields approximately unbiased estimates with in-sample LD and slight upward-bias with out-of-sample LD. We analyze nine complex traits in individuals of East Asian and European ancestry, restricting to common SNPs (MAF > 5%), and find that most common causal SNPs are shared by both populations. Using the genome-wide estimates as priors in an empirical Bayes framework, we perform fine-mapping and observe that high-posterior SNPs (for both the population-specific and shared causal configurations) have highly correlated effects in East Asians and Europeans. In population-specific GWAS risk regions, we observe a 2.8× enrichment of shared high-posterior SNPs, suggesting that population-specific GWAS risk regions harbor shared causal SNPs that are undetected in the other GWASs due to differences in LD, allele frequencies, and/or sample size. Finally, we report enrichments of shared high-posterior SNPs in 53 tissue-specific functional categories and find evidence that SNP-heritability enrichments are driven largely by many low-effect common SNPs.

Improving the coverage of credible sets in Bayesian genetic fine-mapping

Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have successfully identified thousands of loci associated with human diseases. Bayesian genetic fine-mapping studies aim to identify the specific causal variants within GWAS loci responsible for each association, reporting credible sets of plausible causal variants, which are interpreted as containing the causal variant with some "coverage probability". Here, we use simulations to demonstrate that the coverage probabilities are over-conservative in most fine-mapping situations. We show that this is because fine-mapping data sets are not randomly selected from amongst all causal variants, but from amongst causal variants with larger effect sizes. We present a method to re-estimate the coverage of credible sets using rapid simulations based on the observed, or estimated, SNP correlation structure, we call this the "adjusted coverage estimate". This is extended to find "adjusted credible sets", which are the smallest set of variants such that their adjusted coverage estimate meets the target coverage. We use our method to improve the resolution of a fine-mapping study of type 1 diabetes. We found that in 27 out of 39 associated genomic regions our method could reduce the number of potentially causal variants to consider for follow-up, and found that none of the 95% or 99% credible sets required the inclusion of more variants-a pattern matched in simulations of well powered GWAS. Crucially, our method requires only GWAS summary statistics and remains accurate when SNP correlations are estimated from a large reference panel. Using our method to improve the resolution of fine-mapping studies will enable more efficient expenditure of resources in the follow-up process of annotating the variants in the credible set to determine the implicated genes and pathways in human diseases.