Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5-7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon-climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9-2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2-0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22-38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Thermal adaptation of microbial respiration persists throughout long-term soil carbon decomposition

Soil microbial respiration is expected to show adaptations to changing temperatures, greatly weakening the magnitude of feedback over time, as shown in labile carbon substrates. However, whether such thermal adaptation persists during long-term soil carbon decomposition as carbon substrates decrease in decomposability remains unknown. Here, we conducted a 6-year incubation experiment in natural and arable soils with distinct properties under three temperatures (10, 20 and 30°C). Mass-specific microbial respiration was consistently lower under higher long-term incubation temperatures, suggesting the occurrence and persistence of microbial thermal adaptation in long-term soil carbon decomposition. Furthermore, changes in microbial community composition and function largely explained the persistence of microbial respiratory thermal adaptation. If such thermal adaptation generally occurs in large low-decomposability carbon pools, warming-induced soil carbon losses may be lower than previously predicted and thus may not contribute as much as expected to greenhouse warming.

Biome-scale temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration revealed by atmospheric CO2 observations

The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration regulates how the terrestrial carbon sink responds to a warming climate but has been difficult to constrain observationally beyond the plot scale. Here we use observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from a network of towers together with carbon flux estimates from state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to characterize the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration, as represented by the Arrhenius activation energy, over various North American biomes. We infer activation energies of 0.43 eV for North America and 0.38 eV to 0.53 eV for major biomes therein, which are substantially below those reported for plot-scale studies (approximately 0.65 eV). This discrepancy suggests that sparse plot-scale observations do not capture the spatial-scale dependence and biome specificity of the temperature sensitivity. We further show that adjusting the apparent temperature sensitivity in model estimates markedly improves their ability to represent observed atmospheric CO2 variability. This study provides observationally constrained estimates of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration directly at the biome scale and reveals that temperature sensitivities at this scale are lower than those based on earlier plot-scale studies. These findings call for additional work to assess the resilience of large-scale carbon sinks to warming.

Coupling plant litter quantity to a novel metric for litter quality explains C storage changes in a thawing permafrost peatland

Permafrost thaw is a major potential feedback source to climate change as it can drive the increased release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) and methane (CH₄ ). This carbon release from the decomposition of thawing soil organic material can be mitigated by increased net primary productivity (NPP) caused by warming, increasing atmospheric CO₂ , and plant community transition. However, the net effect on C storage also depends on how these plant community changes alter plant litter quantity, quality, and decomposition rates. Predicting decomposition rates based on litter quality remains challenging, but a promising new way forward is to incorporate measures of the energetic favorability to soil microbes of plant biomass decomposition. We asked how the variation in one such measure, the nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC), interacts with changing quantities of plant material inputs to influence the net C balance of a thawing permafrost peatland. We found: (1) Plant productivity (NPP) increased post-thaw, but instead of contributing to increased standing biomass, it increased plant biomass turnover via increased litter inputs to soil; (2) Plant litter thermodynamic favorability (NOSC) and decomposition rate both increased post-thaw, despite limited changes in bulk C:N ratios; (3) these increases caused the higher NPP to cycle more rapidly through both plants and soil, contributing to higher CO₂ and CH₄  fluxes from decomposition. Thus, the increased C-storage expected from higher productivity was limited and the high global warming potential of CH₄ contributed a net positive warming effect. Although post-thaw peatlands are currently C sinks due to high NPP offsetting high CO₂ release, this status is very sensitive to the plant community's litter input rate and quality. Integration of novel bioavailability metrics based on litter chemistry, including NOSC, into studies of ecosystem dynamics, is needed to improve the understanding of controls on arctic C stocks under continued ecosystem transition.