Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non-threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.

Acknowledging more biodiversity without more species

Delimiting and naming biodiversity is a vital step toward wildlife conservation and research. However, species delimitation must be consistent across biota so that the limited resources available for nature protection can be spent effectively and objectively. To date, newly discovered lineages typically are either left undescribed and thus remain unprotected or are being erroneously proposed as new species despite mixed evidence for completed speciation, in turn contributing to the emerging problem of taxonomic inflation. Inspired by recent conceptual and methodological progress, we propose a standardized workflow for species delimitation that combines phylogenetic and hybrid zone analyses of genomic datasets ("genomic taxonomy"), in which phylogeographic lineages that do not freely admix are ranked as species, while those that have remained fully genetically compatible are ranked as subspecies. In both cases, we encourage their formal taxonomic naming, diagnosis, and description to promote social awareness toward biodiversity. The use of loci throughout the genome overcomes the unreliability of widely used barcoding genes when phylogeographic patterns are complex, while the evaluation of divergence and reproductive isolation unifies the long-opposed concepts of lineage species and biological species. We suggest that a shift in conservation assessments from a single level (species) toward a two-level hierarchy (species and subspecies) will lead to a more balanced perception of biodiversity in which both intraspecific and interspecific diversity are valued and more adequately protected.

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity ('defaunation') represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic 'footprints' that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as 'non-threatened', 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.

Exploring the endangerment mechanisms of Hipposideros pomona based on molecular phylogeographic methods

The endangerment mechanisms of various species are a focus of studies on biodiversity and conservation biology. Hipposideros pomona is an endangered species, but the reasons behind its endangerment remain unclear. We investigated the endangerment mechanisms of H. pomona using mitochondrial DNA, nuclear DNA, and microsatellite loci markers. The results showed that the nucleotide diversity of mitochondria DNA and heterozygosity of microsatellite markers were high (π = 0.04615, H O = 0.7115), whereas the nucleotide diversity of the nuclear genes was low (THY: π = 0.00508, SORBS2: π = 0.00677, ACOX2: π = 0.00462, COPS7A: π = 0.00679). The phylogenetic tree and median-joining network based on mitochondrial DNA sequences clustered the species into three clades, namely North Vietnam-Fujian, Myanmar-West Yunnan, and Laos-Hainan clades. However, joint analysis of nuclear genes did not exhibit clustering. Analysis of molecular variance revealed a strong population genetic structure; IMa2 analysis did not reveal significant gene flow between all groups (p > .05), and isolation-by-distance analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between genetic and geographic distances (p < .05). The mismatch distribution analysis, neutral test, and Bayesian skyline plots revealed that the H. pomona population were relatively stable and exhibited a contraction trend. The results implied that H. pomona exhibits female philopatry and male-biased dispersal. The Hengduan Mountains could have acted as a geographical barrier for gene flow between the North Vietnam-Fujian clade and the Myanmar-West Yunnan clade, whereas the Qiongzhou Strait may have limited interaction between the Hainan populations and other clades. The warm climate during the second interglacial Quaternary period (c. 0.33 Mya) could have been responsible for species differentiation, whereas the cold climate during the late Quaternary last glacial maximum (c. 10 ka BP) might have caused the overall contraction of species. The lack of significant gene flow in nuclear microsatellite loci markers among the different populations investigated reflects recent habitat fragmentation due to anthropogenic activities; thus, on-site conservation of the species and restoration of gene flow corridors among populations need immediate implementation.

Identifying the geographic distribution pattern of venomous snakes and regions of high snakebite risk in Iran

We describe species richness patterns of venomous snakes in Iran in order to produce snakebite risk prediction maps and identify gaps in regional health care centers capable of managing snakebites. We digitized distribution maps from the literature, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and the results of our own field studies of 24 terrestrial venomous snake species (including 4 endemic to Iran). Species richness patterns were associated with eight environmental factors. The variables have been extracted from the WorldClim dataset (bio12 = annual precipitation, bio15 = precipitation seasonality, bio17 = precipitation of the driest quarter, bio2 = mean diurnal range, bio3 = isothermality (bio2/bio7), bio4 = temperature seasonality, bio9 = mean temperature of the driest quarter and slope). Based on spatial analyses, species richness in Iran is highly affected by three environmental variables (bio12, 15, and 17) associated with precipitation. The relationship patterns among these predictors and species richness were strong and linear. The hotspot regions for venomous snakes species are concentrated on the western to southwestern and north to northeastern regions of Iran, which is partially consistent with the known Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. Because of the high number of endemic species and climatic conditions on the Iranian Plateau, the venoms of snakes distributed in those areas may contain novel properties and components.