A Lagrangian model for drifting ecosystems reveals heterogeneity-driven enhancement of marine plankton blooms

Ecological associations distribution modelling of marine plankton at a global scale

Marine plankton communities form intricate networks of interacting organisms at the base of the food chain, and play a central role in regulating ocean biogeochemical cycles and climate. However, predicting plankton community shifts in response to climate change remains challenging. While species distribution models are valuable tools for predicting changes in species biogeography under climate change scenarios, they generally overlook the key role of biotic interactions, which can significantly shape ecological processes and ecosystem responses. Here, we introduce a novel statistical framework, association distribution modelling (ADM), designed to model and predict ecological associations distribution in space and time. Applied on a Tara Oceans genome-resolved metagenomics dataset, the present-day biogeography of ADM-inferred marine plankton associations revealed four major biogeographic biomes organized along a latitudinal gradient. We predicted the evolution of these biome-specific communities in response to a climate change scenario, highlighting differential responses to environmental change. Finally, we explored the functional potential of impacted plankton communities, focusing on carbon fixation, outlining the predicted evolution of its geographical distribution and implications for ecosystem function.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Datascape: exploring heterogeneous dataspace

Data science is a powerful field for gaining insights, comparing, and predicting behaviors from datasets. However, the diversity of methods and hypotheses needed to abstract a dataset exhibits a lack of genericity. Moreover, the shape of a dataset, which structures its contained information and uncertainties, is rarely considered. Inspired by state-of-the-art manifold learning and hull estimations algorithms, we propose a novel framework, the datascape, that leverages topology and graph theory to abstract heterogeneous datasets. Built upon the combination of a nearest neighbor graph, a set of convex hulls, and a metric distance that respects the shape of the data, the datascape allows exploration of the dataset's underlying space. We show that the datascape can uncover underlying functions from simulated datasets, build predictive algorithms with performance close to state-of-the-art algorithms, and reveal insightful geodesic paths between points. It demonstrates versatility through ecological, medical, and simulated data use cases.