Costs and health benefits of the rural energy transition to carbon neutrality in China

Challenges of aligning district heating structures with climate goals across China's provinces

Cost-effective decarbonization and clean heating, the major end-use of energy in China, is an urgent scientific challenge. This study proposed a generalizable framework to quantify facility-level cost-effectiveness to assess the application scope and emission reduction potential of various strategies, while evaluating their provincial compatibility with carbon neutrality goals. Our findings indicate that China's district heating system emitted 7.5 × 105 tons of SO2, 7.7 × 105 tons of NOx, 4.1 × 105 tons of PM2.5, and 1.2 × 109 tons of CO2 in 2020. Among these, 15,429 coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs) contributed 30 % of CO2 and 46 %-65 % of air pollutants, while 5581 combined heat and power plants (CHPs) accounted for 57 % of CO2 and 35 %-41 % of air pollutants. The 15 km heating pipeline network from CHPs currently covers 53 % of residential areas, leaving only 2890 CFIBs eligible for dismantling and connected to the grid. This limitation has driven most CFIBs to switch to biomass-fired boilers, especially in biomass-rich regions such as North and Northeast China. Furthermore, through scenario analysis, we found that most provinces will still face significant challenges in meeting growing heating demands under the current heating structure adjustments. This underscores the necessity need to delay CHPs retirements, expand heating networks to 50 km, and advance heat pump and energy storage technologies.

The public health co-benefits of strategies consistent with net-zero emissions: a systematic review

Moving towards net-zero emission societies is projected to provide human health co-benefits. However, the magnitude of these co-benefits is poorly documented and might be context specific. Synthesising the evidence on these co-benefits could enhance the engagement of decision makers and populations in climate mitigation actions. We performed database searches of PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for studies published between database inception and Jan 1, 2024, identifying 3976 papers. Of these, 58 quantitative studies met our inclusion criteria and were included in this systematic review. These 58 papers explored 125 net-zero emission scenarios and considered various pathways by which climate policies can affect human health. Pathways addressing air quality, physical activity, and dietary changes found substantial health co-benefits, with a median mortality reduction of 1·5%. National or sub-national studies showed that net-zero policies would yield substantial local air quality benefits, independently of the actions taken in neighbouring countries. However, these co-benefits varied with explored emission sector, decarbonisation levers, modelling approach, and location. Studies that included a cost-benefit analysis estimated that monetised benefits outweighed the costs of implementing climate policies. This systematic review highlights the need for a standardised framework to assess and compare health impacts of climate mitigation actions across sectors and confirms that achieving net-zero goals supports far-reaching public health policies. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Unclean but affordable solid fuels effectively sustained household energy equity

Extensive use of traditional solid fuels necessitates a clean transition to modern energy, yet rising costs hinder equitable progress, presenting a challenge that remains underexplored. Here we quantify household energy inequities in China and evaluate shifts during the cooking and heating transition by compiling data from nationwide questionnaire surveys and statistic datasets. We find that by meeting 42.6% of household energy needs at low costs, solid fuels sustain equitable energy consumption across different income groups, being measured by the Concentration Index (CI). However, energy burden inequity remains substantially with the CI value increases by up to 43% during the transition, particularly when moving away from biomass for cooking. Switching to electric heating with natural gas cooking would limit such increases by only 15.5%. The study underscores the negative equity impacts of solid fuel cessation, advocating for phased transitions and targeted subsidies to ensure a just clean energy transition.

Guiding clean energy transitions in rural households: Insights from China's pilot low-carbon policies

The impact of Low Carbon Pilot Policies (LCPPs) on carbon reduction and energy efficiency has been extensively studied. However, the potential of these policies to promote clean energy transition (CET) in rural households remains underexplored. This article constructed a staggered-DID model using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to investigate the impact and mechanisms of LCPPs on rural households' CET. The findings indicate that LCPPs significantly enhance the CET among rural households. Moreover, the effects of LCPPs vary across cities, while differences within communities and households are less pronounced. Mechanism analysis reveals that LCPPs facilitate rural households' CET through income effects, infrastructure improvements, and enhanced low-carbon awareness. Notably, the income and low-carbon awareness effects are heterogeneous. Additionally, LCPPs have increased rural households' expenditures on home-cooked meals. We estimate the average fixed cost of the CET for rural households to be approximately $404.495. These insights provide valuable empirical evidence that can guide other countries and regions in promoting CET in rural areas.

Identifying Key Sources for Air Pollution and CO2 Emission Co-control in China

China is confronting the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, mandating the co-control of air pollutants and CO2 emissions from their shared sources. Here we identify key sources for co-control that prioritize the mitigation of PM2.5-related health burdens, given the homogeneous impacts of CO2 emissions from various sources. By applying an integrated analysis framework that consists of a detailed emission inventory, a chemical transport model, a multisource fused dataset, and epidemiological concentration-response functions, we systematically evaluate the contribution of emissions from 390 sources (30 provinces and 13 socioeconomic sectors) to PM2.5-related health impacts and CO2 emissions, as well as the marginal health benefits of CO2 abatement across China. The estimated source-specific contributions exhibit substantial disparities, with the marginal benefits varying by 3 orders of magnitude. The rural residential, transportation, metal, and power and heating sectors emerge as pivotal sources for co-control, with regard to their relatively large marginal benefits or the sectoral total benefits. In addition, populous and heavily industrialized provinces such as Shandong and Henan are identified as the key regions for co-control. Our study highlights the significance of incorporating health benefits into formulating air pollution and carbon co-control strategies for improving the overall social welfare.

The impact of digital inclusive finance on the collaborative reduction of pollutant and carbon emissions: spatial spillover and mechanism analysis

In light of the escalating global climate risks threatening human survival, there is a global consensus on the necessity for collaborative reduction of pollutant and carbon emissions (CRPC). Within this context, digital inclusive finance (DIF) is recognized for its unique inclusiveness and digital characteristics as a critical factor in promoting environmentally friendly and sustainable development. DIF provides advantageous channels for environmental governance, thereby making the achievement of CRPC objectives feasible. However, the impact of DIF on CRPC has not been fully explored. This study employs a spatial econometric model to investigate the impact of DIF on CRPC in 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020. The findings indicate that DIF has a positive impact on CRPC, with significant spatial spillover effects. The analysis highlights the pivotal mediating roles played by technology effect and electrified effect of the energy mix, while environmental regulation effect plays a moderating role. Notably, disparities in the impact of DIF on CRPC are evident, particularly in non-resource-based cities, cities with low carbon intensity, and eastern regions where spatial spillover effects are more pronounced. These experiences enrich the relevant thesis in terms of DIF on CRPC, providing a theoretical basis for formulating CRPC schemes.

Cleaner heating policies contribute significantly to health benefits and cost-savings: A case study in Beijing, China

Cleaner heating policies aim to reduce air pollution and may bring about health benefits to individuals. Based on a fixed-effect model focusing on Beijing, this study found that after the onset of air pollution, daily clinic visits, hospitalization days, and hospitalization expenses increased several days after the occurrence of air pollution. These hospitalization changes were observed in males and females and three different age groups. A difference-in-differences (DID) model was constructed to identify the influences of cleaner heating policies on health consequences. The study revealed that the policy positively affects health outcomes, with an average decrease of 3.28 thousand clinic visits for all diseases. The total hospitalization days and expenses tend to decrease by 0.22 thousand days and 0.34 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), respectively. Furthermore, implementing the policy significantly reduced the number of daily clinic visits for respiratory diseases, asthma, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPDs).

Exploring urban compactness impact on carbon emissions from energy consumption: A township-level case study of Hangzhou, China

Given that cities are the major contributors to carbon emissions, studying urban compactness (UC) and its impact on carbon emissions from energy consumption (CEECs) is crucial. This study calculated Hangzhou's township-level urban UC and CEECs using a hybrid subjective-objective weighted regression model on integrated panel datasets. By employing a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the UC-CEEC relationship from 2006 to 2019 was uncovered. The results indicated an overall increase in UC, with significant variations across different counties. CEECs were higher in the central region, shifting eastward due to distinct urban development levels and policies. Moreover, the effects of various UC factors exhibited significant spatiotemporal inconsistency, with the impact intensity gradually diminishing. Additionally, the explanatory power of these factors declined and diversified over time. These findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between UC and CEECs within the complex metropolitan environment and the importance of regulating their coordinated development. The research not only offers a more scientific approach to managing the growth of county-level cities and supporting balanced urbanization but also presents policy recommendations.

Uncovering the differentiated impacts of carbon neutrality and clean air policies in multi-provinces of China

Ambitious action plans have been launched to address climate change and air pollution. Through coupling the IMED|CGE, GAINS, and IMED|HEL models, this study investigate the impacts of implementing carbon neutrality and clean air policies on the energy-environment-health-economy chain in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan-Shandong-Shanxi region of China. Results show that Shandong holds the largest reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions toward the 1.5°C target. Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are of particularly prominent pollutant reduction potential. Synergistic effects of carbon reduction on decreasing PM2.5 concentration will increase in the future, specifically in energy-intensive regions. Co-deployment of carbon reduction and end-of-pipe technologies are beneficial to decrease PM2.5-related mortalities and economic loss by 4.7-12.9% in 2050. Provincial carbon reduction cost will be higher than monetary health benefits after 2030, indicating that more zero-carbon technologies should be developed. Our findings provide scientific enlightenment on policymaking toward achieving carbon reduction and pollution mitigation from multiple perspectives.

Air Quality and Health Implications of Coal Power Retirements Attributed to Industrial Electricity Savings in China

The coal-dominated electricity system, alongside increasing industrial electricity demand, places China into a dilemma between industrialization and environmental impacts. A practical solution is to exploit air quality and health cobenefits of industrial energy efficiency measures, which has not yet been integrated into China's energy transition strategy. This research examines the pivotal role of industrial electricity savings in accelerating coal plant retirements and assesses the nexus of energy-pollution-health by modeling nationwide coal-fired plants at individual unit level. It shows that minimizing electricity needs by implementing more efficient technologies leads to the phaseout of 1279 hyper-polluting units (subcritical, <300 MW) by 2040, advancing the retirement of these units by an average of 7 years (3-16 years). The retirements at different locations yield varying levels of air quality improvements (9-17%), across six power grids. Reduced exposure to PM2.5 could avoid 123,100 pollution-related cumulative deaths over the next 20 years from 2020, of which ∼75% occur in the Central, East, and North grids, particularly coal-intensive and populous provinces (e.g., Shandong and Jiangsu). These findings provide key indicators to support geographically specific policymaking and lay out a rationale for decision-makers to incorporate multiple benefits into early coal phaseout strategies to avoid lock-in risk.

Net-zero energy transition in ASEAN countries: The evolutionary model brings novel perspectives to the cooperative mechanism of climate governance

In an era marked by escalating climate change, the fragile ecological balance faces increasing strain. Whilst significant knowledge exists regarding the accumulation of carbon emission within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, little is known about when and how countries could reach net-zero emission goal as agreed in Paris Agreement. For this purpose, our study examines the primary driving factors of carbon emission from 1990 to 2020 across the ten countries using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model. We leverage the random forest model to explore the net-zero scenarios and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average approach to identify the evolutionary trajectories of carbon emission trends. Our findings underscore the imperative need for expediting decarbonization efforts, emphasizing the urgency for widespread adoption of clean technologies and substantial investment in green initiatives. Countries at similar stages of progress might establish a cooperation mechanism of clean energy base construction, energy storage allocation and policy formulation. These insights can help us better estimate future demand of clean energy, explore strategies for decarbonization, and inform historical commonalities of carbon emission growth.