The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation

Unexpected response of terrestrial carbon sink to rural depopulation in China

China is experiencing large-scale rural-urban migration and rapid urbanization, which have had significant impact on terrestrial carbon sink. However, the impact of rural-urban migration and its accompanying urban expansion on the carbon sink is unclear. Based on multisource remote sensing product data for 2000-2020, the soil microbial respiration equation, relative contribution rate, and threshold analysis, we explored the impact of rural depopulation on the carbon sink and its threshold. The results revealed that the proportion of the rural population in China decreased from 63.91 % in 2000 to 36.11 % in 2020. Human pressure decreased by 1.82% in rural depopulation areas, which promoted vegetation restoration in rural areas (+8.45 %) and increased the carbon sink capacity. The net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of the vegetation in the rural areas increased at rates of 2.95 g C m-2 yr-1 and 2.44 g C m-2 yr-1. Strong rural depopulation enhanced the carbon sequestration potential, and the NEP was 1.5 times higher in areas with sharp rural depopulation than in areas with mild rural depopulation. In addition, the rural depopulation was accompanied by urban expansion, and there was a positive correlation between the comprehensive urbanization level (CUL) and NEP in 75.29 % of urban areas. In the urban areas, the vegetation index increased by 88.42 %, and the urban green space partially compensated for the loss of carbon sink caused by urban expansion, with a growth rate of 4.96 g C m-2 yr-1. Changes in rural population have a nonlinear impact on the NEP. When the rural population exceeds 545.686 people/km2, an increase in the rural population will have a positive impact on the NEP. Our research shows that rural depopulation offers a potential opportunity to restore natural ecosystems and thus increase the carbon sequestration capacity.

Effect of jujube orchard abandonment time on soil properties and enzyme activities at soil profile in the Loess Plateau

In the Loess Plateau, the impact of abandoned farmland on soil properties and enzyme activity, along with its temporal variations and potential driving factors, remains a mystery. This study was designed to systematically and comprehensively examine the variations in soil enzyme activities, particle size distribution, and stability of soil aggregates at different stages of ecological recovery in the Loess Plateau. Our findings reveal a nuanced temporal pattern: with the progression of cropland abandonment, there is a notable decrease in soil bulk density. Concurrently, a dynamic trend in enzyme activities is observed-initially exhibiting a decline, followed by an increase over extended periods of recovery. Notably, prolonged abandonment leads to marked enhancements in soil structure. Parameters such as the mean weight diameter (MWD) and geometric mean diameter (GMD) of soil aggregates show an overall increasing trend. In terms of the Relative Dissipation Index (RSI), our data indicate a sequence of control > 2 years of abandonment > 4 years > 6 years > 14 years. From this, it can be seen that fallowing may be an effective natural restoration strategy for improving the physical structure of soils in the Loess Plateau and restoring soil nutrients. However, positive changes may take a long time to become evident.

An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production

Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022-2023 growing season across the primary wheat-producing region in the United States caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop growth. Using an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in wheat production as being attributable to both per-harvested acre yield loss and severe crop abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.

Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration

Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100 and the resulting implications for carbon and biodiversity. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.

Construction of a methodology framework to characterize dynamic full-sector land-use carbon emissions embodied in trade

The globally massive land-use changes associated with unprecedented urbanization rate are leading to prodigious quantities of carbon emissions. Nonetheless, the dynamics of land-use carbon emissions, particularly driven by supply-chain activities across all relevant industrial sectors, remain largely unexplored, especially in non-agricultural sectors. Here, we constructed a novel methodological framework to quantify full-sector land-use carbon emissions in Shenzhen, China, an international megacity grappling with acute land resource scarcity. Then, we integrated this framework with multiregional input-output analysis to uncover the multi-scale embodied land-use emissions propelled by Shenzhen's supply-chain activities. Our results indicate a marked increase in Shenzhen's embodied carbon emissions, approximately two orders of magnitude greater than its physical emissions, tripling during 2005-2018. Remarkably, non-agriculture sectors contributed 81.3-90.5 % of physical and 46.6-58.4 % of embodied land-use emissions. The land-use changes occurred outside Shenzhen accounted for 6.5-13.3 % of Shenzhen's total embodied land-use emissions. The sectoral analysis revealed a transition from traditional manufacturing (e.g., metallurgy, chemical products, textiles, wood products) in 2010-2015 to high-tech sectors (e.g., electronic equipment and other manufacture) in 2015-2018. This shift was primarily attributed to concurrent industry transfer actions, leading to aggressive changes in land-use emission intensity discrepancies within and outside Shenzhen. This study provides a scientific basis for designing effective strategies to mitigate land-use carbon emissions associated with supply-chain activities.