Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift

Early warning of regime switching in a complex financial system from a spillover network dynamic perspective

Early warning of regime switching in a complex financial system is a critical and challenging issue in risk management. Previous research has examined regime switching through analyzing the fluctuation features in a single point in time series; however, it has rarely examined the dynamic spillovers across multivariable time series. This paper develops an early warning model of regime switching that incorporates a spillover network model and a machine learning model. Typical energy prices and stock market indices are selected as the sample data. The key spillover networks can be detected according to the distribution of the network indicators. The early warning signals can be captured by six typical machine learning models, and the random forest model has better performance. The robustness of the model is also discussed. Our study enriches regime switching research and provides important early warning signals for policymakers and market investors.

Variable habitat use supports fine-scale population differentiation of a freshwater piscivore (northern pike, Esox lucius) along salinity gradients in brackish lagoons

In mobile animals, selection pressures resulting from spatio-temporally varying ecological factors often drive adaptations in migration behavior and associated physiological phenotypes. These adaptations may manifest in ecologically and genetically distinct ecotypes within populations. We studied a meta-population of northern pike (Esox lucius) in brackish environments and examined intrapopulation divergence along environmental gradients. Behavioral phenotypes in habitat use were characterized via otolith microchemistry in 120 individuals sampled from brackish lagoons and adjacent freshwater tributaries. We genotyped 1514 individual pike at 33 highly informative genetic markers. The relationship between behavioral phenotype and genotype was examined in a subset of 101 pikes for which both phenotypic and genomic data were available. Thermosaline differences between juvenile and adult life stages indicated ontogenetic shifts from warm, low-saline early habitats towards colder, higher-saline adult habitats. Four behavioral phenotypes were found: Freshwater residents, anadromous, brackish residents, and cross-habitat individuals, the latter showing intermediary habitat use between brackish and freshwater areas. Underlying the behavioral phenotypes were four genotypes, putative freshwater, putative anadromous, and two putatively brackish genotypes. Through phenotype-genotype matching, three ecotypes were identified: (i) a brackish resident ecotype, (ii) a freshwater ecotype expressing freshwater residency or anadromy, and (iii) a previously undescribed intermediary cross-habitat ecotype adapted to intermediate salinities, showing limited reliance on freshwater. Life-time growth of all ecotypes was similar, suggesting comparable fitness. By combining genetic data with lifelong habitat use and growth as a fitness surrogate, our study revealed strong differentiation in response to abiotic environmental gradients, primarily salinity, indicating ecotype diversity in coastal northern pike is higher than previously believed.

Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift

Ecosystem regime shifts can have severe ecological and economic consequences, making it a top priority to understand how to make systems more resilient. Theory predicts that spatial connectivity and the local environment interact to shape resilience, but empirical studies are scarce. Here, we use >7000 fish samplings from the Baltic Sea coast to test this prediction in an ongoing, spatially propagating shift in dominance from predatory fish to an opportunistic mesopredator, with cascading effects throughout the food web. After controlling for the influence of other drivers (including increasing mesopredator densities), we find that predatory fish habitat connectivity increases resilience to the shift, but only when densities of fish-eating top predators (seals, cormorants) are low. Resilience also increases with temperature, likely through boosted predatory fish growth and recruitment. These findings confirm theoretical predictions that spatial connectivity and the local environment can together shape resilience to regime shifts.