A nonlinear time-series analysis approach to identify thresholds in associations between population antibiotic use and rates of resistance

Threshold modeling for antibiotic stewardship in Oman

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial stewardship supports rational antibiotic use. However, balancing access to antibiotic treatment while controlling resistance is challenging. This research used a threshold logistic modeling approach to identify targets for antibiotic usage associated with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii, carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumonia, and extended-spectrum β-lactamases-producing Escherichia coli incidence in hospitals.

METHODS

This study utilizes an ecological population-level design. Monthly pathogen cases and antibiotic use were retrospectively determined for inpatients between January 2015 and December 2023. The hospital pharmacy and microbiology information systems were used to obtain this data. Thresholds were identified by applying nonlinear modeling and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Incidence rates of 0.199, 0.175, and 0.146 cases/100 occupied bed-days (OBD) for carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, carbapenem-resistant K pneumonia, and extended-spectrum β-lactamases-producing E coli, respectively, were determined as the cutoff values for high (critical) incidence rates. Thresholds for aminoglycosides (0.59 defined daily dose [DDD]/100 OBD), carbapenems (6.31 DDD/100 OBD), piperacillin-tazobactam (3.71 DDD/100 OBD), third-generation cephalosporins (3.71 DDD/100 OBD), and fluoroquinolones (1.91 DDD/100 OBD), were identified. Exceeding these thresholds would accelerate the gram-negative pathogens' incidence rate above the critical incidence levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Threshold logistic models can help inform and implement effective antimicrobial stewardship interventions to manage resistance within hospital settings.

Dynamic association of antimicrobial resistance in urinary isolates of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae between primary care and hospital settings in the Netherlands (2008-2020): a population-based study

Background

It is unclear whether changes in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in primary care influence AMR in hospital settings. Therefore, we investigated the dynamic association of AMR between primary care and hospitals.

Methods

We studied resistance percentages of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates to co-amoxiclav, ciprofloxacin, fosfomycin, nitrofurantoin and trimethoprim submitted by primary care, hospital outpatient and hospital inpatient settings to the Dutch National AMR surveillance network (ISIS-AR) from 2008 to 2020. For each bacterium-antibiotic combination, we first conducted multivariable logistic regressions to calculate AMR odds ratios (ORs) by month and healthcare setting, adjusted for patient-related factors and a time term. Second, multiple time series analysis was done using vector autoregressive models including the (log) ORs for each bacterium-antibiotic combination. Models were interpreted by impulse response functions and Granger-causality tests.

Findings

The main AMR association was unidirectional from primary care to hospital settings with Granger-causality p-values between <0.0001 and 0.029. Depending on the bacterium-antibiotic combination, a 1% increase of AMR in E. coli and K. pneumoniae in primary care leads to an increase of AMR in hospital settings ranging from 0.10% to 0.40%. For ciprofloxacin resistance in K. pneumoniae, we found significant bidirectional associations between all healthcare settings with Granger-causality p-values between <0.0001 and 0.0075.

Interpretation

For the majority of bacterium-antibiotic combinations, the main AMR association was from primary care to hospital settings. These results underscore the importance of antibiotic stewardship at the community level.

Funding

ISIS-AR is supported by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport of the Netherlands and the first author by the Central University of Ecuador to follow a PhD program in Erasmus MC.

Pharmaco-Epidemiological Study and Correlation Between Antibiotic Resistance and Antibiotic Consumption in a Tunisian Teaching Hospital from 2010 to 2022

The exponential rise of bacterial resistance poses a threat to antibiotic efficacy, with a great impact on public health. This study aims to analyze the correlation between antibiotic consumption and the emergence of bacterial resistance. Conducted retrospectively at Charles Nicolle Hospital in Tunis, Tunisia, from 2010 to 2022, this study was based on STKMED® software for antibiotic consumption data, hospital administrative records for the number of hospitalization days, and SIRSCAN® software for bacteriological data. Data processing was performed using Excel® software version 2019, and analysis was conducted using SPSS23®. In 2022, consumption was almost evenly split between the two major "AWaRe" groups, with 49.33% for "Access" and 46.89% for "Watch", and the consumption of the "Reserve" group also increased, accounting for 3.77% of the total. Bacterial resistances, notably carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, increased. Seventy-four significant correlations were identified, including those between carbapenem consumption and resistance in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains. However, no significant correlation was observed with imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains. The significant correlations between the emergence of bacterial resistance and antibiotic use, particularly with antibiotics in the "Watch" and "Reserve" groups, underscore the urgent need to continue efforts to combat this threat through rational antibiotic use.

Predicting future hospital antimicrobial resistance prevalence using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a top global health threat, nationwide at an aggregate hospital level could help target interventions. Using machine learning, we exploit historical AMR and antimicrobial usage to predict future AMR.

METHODS

Antimicrobial use and AMR prevalence in bloodstream infections in hospitals in England were obtained per hospital group (Trust) and financial year (FY, April-March) for 22 pathogen-antibiotic combinations (FY2016-2017 to FY2021-2022). Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model predictions were compared to the previous value taken forwards, the difference between the previous two years taken forwards and linear trend forecasting (LTF). XGBoost feature importances were calculated to aid interpretability.

RESULTS

Here we show that XGBoost models achieve the best predictive performance. Relatively limited year-to-year variability in AMR prevalence within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations means previous value taken forwards also achieves a low mean absolute error (MAE), similar to or slightly higher than XGBoost. Using the difference between the previous two years taken forward or LTF performs consistently worse. XGBoost considerably outperforms all other methods in Trusts with a larger change in AMR prevalence from FY2020-2021 (last training year) to FY2021-2022 (held-out test set). Feature importance values indicate that besides historical resistance to the same pathogen-antibiotic combination as the outcome, complex relationships between resistance in different pathogens to the same antibiotic/antibiotic class and usage are exploited for predictions. These are generally among the top ten features ranked according to their mean absolute SHAP values.

CONCLUSIONS

Year-to-year resistance has generally changed little within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations. In those with larger changes, XGBoost models can improve predictions, enabling informed decisions, efficient resource allocation, and targeted interventions.

The Medicines Optimisation Innovation Centre: a dedicated centre driving innovation in medicines optimisation-impact and sustainability

BACKGROUND

Sub-optimal medicines use is a challenge globally, contributing to poorer health outcomes, inefficiencies and waste. The Medicines Optimisation Innovation Centre (MOIC) was established in Northern Ireland by the Department of Health (DH) in 2015 to support implementation of the Medicines Optimisation Quality Framework.

AIM

To demonstrate how MOIC informs policy and provides support to commissioners to improve population health and wellbeing.

SETTING

MOIC is a regional centre with multidisciplinary and multi-sector clinical expertise across Health and Social Care and patient representation.

DEVELOPMENT

Core funded by DH, MOIC has a robust governance structure and oversight programme board. An annual business plan is agreed with DH. Rigorous processes have been developed for project adoption and working collaboratively with industry.

IMPLEMENTATION

MOIC has established partnerships with academia, industry, healthcare and representative organisations across Europe, participating in research and development projects and testing integrated technology solutions. A hosting programme has been established and evaluation and dissemination strategies have been developed.

EVALUATION

MOIC has established numerous agreements, partnered in three large EU projects and strengthened networks globally with extensive publications and conference presentations. Informing pathway redesign, sustainability and COVID response, MOIC has also assisted in the development of clinical pharmacy services and antimicrobial stewardship in Europe and Africa. Northern Ireland has been recognised as a 4-star European Active and Healthy Ageing Reference Site and the Integrated Medicines Management model as an example of best practice in Central and Eastern Europe.

CONCLUSION

MOIC has demonstrated considerable success and sustainability and is applicable to health systems globally.

Individual health insurance data of antibiotic delivery in previous months as a tool to predict bacterial resistance of urinary tract infection: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to quantify the individual risk of antimicrobial resistance among patients with community-acquired Escherichia coli urinary tract infection (UTI) according to their antibiotic exposure over the previous 18 months.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

French patients were prospectively recruited in two centers in 2015-2017. Resistance of isolates to amoxicillin (AMX), amoxicillin-clavulanate (AMC), third-generation cephalosporins (3GC), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), fluoroquinolones (FQ) and fosfomycin (FOS) was analysed according to previous intra-class and inter-class antibiotic exposure documented in health insurance files.

RESULTS

Previous antibiotic exposure was found in 588 (81.4 %) of the 722 UTI cases analysed (564 patients). Recent exposure (three months before UTI) was associated with stronger intra-class impact on E. coli resistance compared to remote exposure (18 months before UTI) for AMX, AMC, FQ and TMP-SMX, with respective adjusted odds ratios [95 % confidence interval] of 1.63 [1.20-2.21], 1.59 [1.02-2.48], 3.01 [1.90-4.77], and 2.60 [1.75-3.87]. AMX, FQ, and TMP-SMX also showed significant inter-class impact. Resistance to 3GC was not significantly associated with intraclass exposure (adjusted OR: 0.88 [0.41-1.90]). FOS resistance was remarkably low (0.4 %). Duration of the antibiotic-free period required for resistance risk to drop below 10 %, the threshold for empirical use in UTI, was modelled as < 1 month for 3GC, >18 months for AMX and TMP-SMX and uncertain for AMC (5.2 months [2.3 to > 18]) and FQ (17.4 months [7.4 to > 18]).

CONCLUSIONS

Resistance of E. coli causing UTI is partially predicted by previous personal antibiotic delivery.

Long-Term Clinical and Ecological Impact of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on the Incidence of Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Infections in a High-Endemic Hospital

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CR-Kp) is currently a serious global concern. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) are one of the key strategies to overcome this resistance. However, evidence about the long-term clinical and ecological impacts of ASPs is scarce. A multidisciplinary team conducted a multifaceted intervention in a CR-Kp endemic hospital over a 6-year period. We assessed the monthly long-term impacts of ASPs on carbapenem use, incidence density (ID), and crude death rates of hospital-acquired CR-Kp infections. Other variables potentially related to CR-Kp incidence and healthcare activity indicators were monitored. Carbapenem use showed a sustained reduction over the long term, with a difference of -66.19% (95% CI -87.03 to -45.34) between the expected pre-intervention trend consumption value and that obtained six years after starting the program. The ID of CR-Kp also decreased significantly and was maintained over the long term, with a relative reduction of -88.14% (95% CI; -100.4 to -75.85) at the end of the study period. The crude death rate of CR-Kp at 14 and 28 days decreased significantly after the intervention and remained steady after six years. Infection control indicator trends remained stable. This mixed ASP contributed to reducing the high incidence of infections and mortality rates of CR-Kp, achieving a sustained ecological and clinical effect.

The effect of the antibiotic stewardship program (ASP) on community-acquired pneumonia (CAP): a before-after study

Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Antibiotic stewardship program (ASP) has been implemented to improve rational and responsible antibiotic use by encouraging guideline adherence. Objective: This retrospective observational before-after study aimed to evaluate whether the ASP may improve guideline adherence, antibiotic exposure, and clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized due to CAP in Hungary. Methods: The study was conducted at a pulmonology department of a tertiary care medical center in Hungary. The ASP implementation consisted of written and published guidelines available to all professionals, continuous supervision, and counseling services on antibiotic therapies at an individual level, with the aim of ensuring compliance with CAP guidelines. Overall guideline adherence (agent selection, route of administration, and dose), clinical outcomes (length of stay and 30-day mortality), antibiotic exposure, and direct costs were compared between the two periods. Fisher's exact test and t-test were applied to compare categorical and continuous variables, respectively. P-values below 0.05 were defined as significant. Results: Significant improvement in overall CAP guideline adherence (30.2%), sequential therapy (10.5%), and a significant reduction in the total duration of antibiotic therapy (13.5%) were observed. Guideline non-adherent combination therapies with metronidazole decreased significantly by 28.1%. Antibiotic exposure decreased by 7.2%, leading to a significant decrease in direct costs (23.6%). Moreover, the ASP had benefits for clinical outcomes, and length of stay decreased by 13.5%. Conclusion: The ASP may play an important role in optimizing empirical antibiotic therapy in CAP having a sustained long-term effect.

Enhancing global insight into AMR spread and generation: prospects and limitations of the WHO and quadripartite research agendas

In Summer 2023, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)-United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) WHO-World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Quadripartite published two separate research agendas on antimicrobial resistance (AMR). While the publication of these research agendas on AMR creates a significant opportunity to align research priorities internationally, we emphasize a number of limitations. Firstly, the production of two separate AMR research agendas, in human health and One Health, rather than one integrated research agenda, risks the continued deprioritization of the One Health agenda. Furthermore, neither research agenda addressed the need to study the relationship between climate change and AMR despite growing evidence to suggest this may be significant. Finally, there are also missed opportunities in directing the study of appropriate treatment regimens and in clarifying the overall most resource-efficient path to combatting AMR. Moving forward, the international research agenda for AMR needs to be continually redefined in an inclusive, transparent and independent manner. This could be the task of the proposed, but so far not realized, Independent Panel on Evidence for Action against AMR.

Effects of a Primary Care Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on Meticillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Strains across a Region of Catalunya (Spain) over 5 Years

Primary care antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) interventions can reduce the over-prescription of unnecessary antibiotics, but the impact on the reduction in bacterial resistance is less known, and there is a lack of available data. We implemented a prolonged educational counseling ASP in a large regional outpatient setting to assess its feasibility and effectiveness. Over a 5-year post-implementation period, which was compared to a pre-intervention period, a significant reduction in antibiotic prescriptions occurred, particularly those associated with greater harmful effects and resistance selection. There was also a decrease in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains and in their co-resistance to other antibiotics, particularly those with an ecological impact.

Acinetobacter baumannii: assessing susceptibility patterns, management practices, and mortality predictors in a tertiary teaching hospital in Lebanon

BACKGROUND

Acinetobacter baumannii is a major nosocomial pathogen capable of causing life-threatening infections. This bacterium is highly resistant to antibiotics and associated with high mortality rates. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate A. baumannii's susceptibility patterns to antimicrobials, assess the appropriateness of the initiated antimicrobial therapy, determine the mortality rate, and identify predictors associated with mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted among patients infected with A. baumannii at a university hospital in Lebanon through the revision of medical records. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests were used to analyze time-to-mortality. Binary logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

The records of 188 patients were screened, and 111 patients with A. baumannii infection were enrolled. Almost all isolates were resistant to carbapenem, and 43% of the isolates were extensively-drug resistant. Almost half of the patients received initial inappropriate antimicrobial therapy (n = 50, 45.1%). The 30-day mortality rate associated with A. baumannii infection was 71.2% (79/111). The time to mortality in patients who received inappropriate antimicrobial therapy (5.70 ± 1.07 days) was significantly shorter than in those who received appropriate antimicrobial therapy (12.43 ± 1.01 days, P < 0.01). Binary logistic regression revealed that inappropriate antimicrobial therapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 16.22, 95% CI 2.68-9.97, P = 0.002), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 14.72, 95% CI 3.27-6.61, P < 0.001), and thrombocytopenia (AOR = 8.82, 95% CI 1.12-9.75, P = 0.003) were more likely associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A. baumannii exhibits an alarming mortality rate among infected patients. Thrombocytopenia, mechanical ventilation, and inappropriate antibiotic administration are associated with mortality in patients infected with A. baumannii. The prompt initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy, infection control measures, and effective stewardship program are crucial to reduce the incidence of A. baumannii and improve the treatment outcomes.

VRE acquisition in hospital and its association with hospital antimicrobial usage -a non-linear analysis of an extended time series

BACKGROUND

Vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) have become endemic pathogens in many Australian hospitals causing significant morbidity. There are few observational studies that have evaluated the effect of antibiotic usage on VRE acquisition. This study examined VRE acquisition and its association with antimicrobial use. The setting was a NSW tertiary hospital with 800 beds over a 63 month period up to March 2020, straddling piperacillin-tazobactam (PT) shortages that occurred from in September 2017.

METHODS

The primary outcome was monthly inpatient hospital onset Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) acquisitions. Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) were used to estimate hypothetical thresholds, where antimicrobial use above threshold is associated with increased incidence of hospital onset VRE acquisition. Specific antimicrobials and categorised usage (broad, less broad and narrow spectrum) were modelled.

RESULTS

There were 846 hospital onset VRE detections over the study period. Hospital onset vanB and vanA VRE acquisitions fell significantly by 64% and 36% respectively after the PT shortage. MARS modelling indicated that PT usage was the only antibiotic found to exhibit a meaningful threshold. PT usage greater than 17.4 defined daily doses/1000 occupied bed-days (95%C I: 13.4, 20.5) was associated with higher onset of hospital VRE.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper highlights the large, sustained impact that reduced broad spectrum antimicrobial use had on VRE acquisition and showed that PT use in particular was a major driver with a relatively low threshold. It raises the question as to whether hospitals should be determining local antimicrobial usage targets based on direct evidence from local data analysed with non-linear methods.

Identification of antibiotic consumption targets for the management of Clostridioides difficile infection in hospitals- a threshold logistic modelling approach

BACKGROUND

This study aims to demonstrate the utility of a threshold logistic approach to identifying thresholds for specific antibiotic use associated with Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) in an English teaching hospital.

METHODS

A combined approach of nonlinear modeling and logistic regression, named threshold logistic, was used to identify thresholds and risk scores in hospital-level antibiotic use associated with hospital-onset, healthcare-associated (HOHA) CDI cases.

RESULTS

Using a threshold logistic regression approach, an incidence greater than 0.2645 cases/1000 occupied bed-days (OBD; 85th percentile) was determined as the cutoff rate to define a critical (high) incidence rate of HOHA CDI. Fluoroquinolones and piperacillin-tazobactam were found to have thresholds at 84.8 and 54 defined daily doses (DDD)/1000 OBD, respectively. Analysis of data allowed calculating risk scores for HOHA CDI incidence rates exceeding the 85th percentile, i.e. entering critical incidence level. The threshold-logistic model also facilitated performing 'what-if scenarios' on future values of fluoroquinolones and piperacillin-tazobactam use to understand how HOHA CDI incidence rates may be affected.

CONCLUSION

Using threshold logistic analysis, critical incidence levels and antibiotic use targets to control HOHA CDI were determined. Threshold logistic models can be used to inform and enhance the effective design and implementation of antimicrobial stewardship programs.

Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance

Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to develop real-time forecasting models for antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) have been absent. In this perspective, we discuss the utility of AMRO forecasting at different scales, highlight the challenges in this field, and suggest future research priorities. We also discuss challenges in scientific understanding, access to high-quality data, model calibration, and implementation and evaluation of forecasting models. We further highlight the need to initiate research on AMRO forecasting using currently available data and resources to galvanize the research community and address initial practical questions.

Systematic review of time lag between antibiotic use and rise of resistant pathogens among hospitalized adults in Europe

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) causes substantial health and economic burden to individuals, healthcare systems and societies globally. Understanding the temporal relationship between antibiotic consumption and antibiotic resistance in hospitalized patients can better inform antibiotic stewardship activities and the time frame for their evaluation.

Objectives

This systematic review examined the temporal relationship between antibiotic use and development of antibiotic resistance for 42 pre-defined antibiotic and pathogen combinations in hospitalized adults in Europe.

Methods

Searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and NIHR Centre for Reviews and Dissemination were undertaken from 2000 to August 2021. Pathogens of interest were Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecium, CoNS, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii complex.

Results

Twenty-eight ecological studies and one individual-level study were included. Ecological studies were predominantly retrospective in design (19 studies) and of reasonable (20 studies) to high (8 studies) methodological quality. Of the eight pathogens of interest, no relevant data were identified for S. pneumoniae and CoNS. Across all pathogens, the time-lag data from the 28 ecological studies showed a similar pattern, with the majority of studies reporting lags ranging from 0 to 6 months.

Conclusions

Development of antibiotic resistance for the investigated antibiotic/pathogen combinations tends to occur over 0 to 6 months following exposure within European hospitals. This information could inform planning of antibiotic stewardship activities in hospital settings.

Global trend of antimicrobial resistance in common bacterial pathogens in response to antibiotic consumption

The emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing public health threat worldwide and antibiotic consumption is being increasingly recognized as the main selective pressure driving this resistance. However, global trend in antibiotic resistance in response to antibiotic consumption is not fully understood. In this study, we collected national resistance data on specific resistant pathogens considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) as priority and antibiotic consumption data for 61 countries to assess the global trends in antibiotic resistance of those common bacterial pathogens and their association with antibiotic consumption. The low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) represented the largest hotspots of resistance, which presented relatively higher resistance rates in common bacterial pathogens but lower antibiotic consumption rates compared to high-income countries (HICs). Specifically, we developed the Normalized Antibiotic Resistance/Consumption Index (NARCI) and produced global maps of NARCI to roughly assess the appropriateness of antibiotic consumption across countries and to indicate the potentially inappropriate antibiotic consumption in LMICs compared with HICs. Additionally, we linked antibiotic consumption rates and resistance rates of target pathogens, in conjunction with NARCI and the correlation analysis between antibiotic use and resistance, to inform strategies to alleviate the threat of antibiotic resistance worldwide.

Routine Antiretroviral Pharmacy Refill Information Can Predict Failure Postpartum in Previously Suppressed South African Women With HIV

Background

Detection of antiretrovirals (ARVs) in biological specimens is a reliable, objective way to measure adherence. However, routine ARV testing is not feasible in many high-burden settings. This study explored if pharmacy data could accurately predict HIV viremia postpartum in previously virally suppressed women.

Methods

South African women with HIV who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy and achieved viral suppression (VS; viral load [VL]≤50 copies/mL) were followed postpartum; during follow-up, plasma VL was measured and ARV adherence self-reported. A portion of samples were tested for the presence of ARV using mass spectrometry. Patient-level routine pharmacy data were used to classify if women should have the drug in hand for the past 7 days before the visit date. Logistic regressions were used to calculate associations between adherence and viral nonsuppression (VNS; VL > 50) or failure (VF; VL > 1000) at the first study visit of women who had ARV measured. Data for all women were examined for associations of self-reported adherence and drug in hand with VS and VF at 2, 6, and 12 months postpartum.

Results

Women with no ARV detected were significantly more likely to have VNS (odds ratio [OR], 26.4). Having no drug in hand for 7 days was also predictive of VNS in these same women (OR, 7.0) and the full cohort (n = 572) at 3 (OR, 2.9), 6 (OR, 8.7), and 12 months (OR, 14.5). Similar results were seen for VF.

Conclusions

These data show that routine pharmacy data can act as a highly predictive mechanism for identifying patients at risk of VNS and VF due to nonadherence.

A Threshold Logistic Modelling Approach for Identifying Thresholds between Antibiotic Use and Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Incidence Rates in Hospitals

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of threshold logistic modelling, an innovative approach in identifying thresholds and risk scores in the context of population antibiotic use associated with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in hospitals. The study also aimed to assess the impact of exceeding those thresholds that resulted in increased MRSA rates. The study was undertaken in a 700-bed hospital in England between January 2015 and December 2021 (84 monthly observations). By employing the threshold logistic modelling approach, we: (i) determined the cut-off percentile value of MRSA incidence that defines a critical level of MRSA; (ii) identified thresholds for fluoroquinolone and co-amoxiclav use that would accelerate MRSA incidence rates and increase the probability of reaching critical incidence levels; (iii) enabled a better understanding of the effect of antibiotic use on the probability of reaching a critical level of resistant pathogen incidence; (iv) developed a near real-time performance monitoring feedback system; (v) provided risk scores and alert signals for antibiotic use, with the ability to inform hospital policies, and control MRSA incidence; and (vi) provided recommendations and an example for the management of pathogen incidence in hospitals. Threshold logistic models can help hospitals determine quantitative targets for antibiotic usage and can also inform effective antimicrobial stewardship to control resistance in hospitals. Studies should work toward implementing and evaluating the proposed approach prospectively, with the aim of determining the best counter-measures to mitigate the risk of increased resistant pathogen incidence in hospitals.

Association between Antimicrobial Consumption and the Prevalence of Nosocomial Carbapenem-Resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Tertiary Hospital in Northern Taiwan

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriales has become a threat in Taiwan. This is the first local study focusing on the association between carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriales and antimicrobial consumption. From January 2012 to December 2020, data were collected in a tertiary care hospital in Taipei, Taiwan. Antimicrobial consumption was estimated by the defined daily dose/1,000 patient-days. During the same period, the prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli (CREC) and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) were collected through routine surveillance data. The following retrospective analyses were conducted: 1) analysis of antimicrobial consumption over time, (2) analysis and forecast of CREC and CRKP prevalence over time, and 3) analysis of correlation between antimicrobial consumption and the prevalence of CREC and CRKP. The consumption of piperacillin/tazobactam (β = 0.615), fluoroquinolones (β = 0.856), meropenem (β = 0.819), and doripenem (β = 0.891) increased during the observation period (P < 0.001), and the consumption of aminoglycosides (β = -0.852) and imipenem/cilastatin (β = -0.851) decreased (P < 0.001). The prevalence of CRKP rose over time (β = 0.522, P = 0.001) and correlated positively with the consumption of fluoroquinolones, levofloxacin, penicillin/β-lactamase inhibitor, piperacillin/tazobactam, meropenem, and doripenem (P < 0.05). The prevalence of CRKP and CREC both correlated negatively with consumption of aminoglycosides (P < 0.01). The prevalence of CRKP in our hospital increased as the forecast predicted based on an autoregressive integrated moving average model. This study provides alarming messages for members participating in antimicrobial stewardship programs, including the increasing prevalence of CRKP, the increasing consumption of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and the positive correlation between them.

Identifying Antibiotic Use Targets for the Management of Antibiotic Resistance Using an Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli Case: A Threshold Logistic Modeling Approach

The aim of this study was to develop a logistic modeling concept to improve understanding of the relationship between antibiotic use thresholds and the incidence of resistant pathogens. A combined approach of nonlinear modeling and logistic regression, named threshold logistic, was used to identify thresholds and risk scores in hospital-level antibiotic use associated with hospital-level incidence rates of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli). Threshold logistic models identified thresholds for fluoroquinolones (61.1 DDD/1000 occupied bed days (OBD)) and third-generation cephalosporins (9.2 DDD/1000 OBD) to control hospital ESBL-producing E. coli incidence. The 60th percentile of ESBL-producing E. coli was determined as the cutoff for defining high incidence rates. Threshold logistic analysis showed that for every one-unit increase in fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins above 61.1 and 9.2 DDD/1000 OBD levels, the average odds of the ESBL-producing E. coli incidence rate being ≥60th percentile of historical levels increased by 4.5% and 12%, respectively. Threshold logistic models estimated the risk scores of exceeding the 60th percentile of a historical ESBL-producing E. coli incidence rate. Threshold logistic models can help hospitals in defining critical levels of antibiotic use and resistant pathogen incidence and provide targets for antibiotic consumption and a near real-time performance monitoring feedback system.

The Impact of Antimicrobial Stewardship and Infection Control Interventions on Acinetobacter baumannii Resistance Rates in the ICU of a Tertiary Care Center in Lebanon

Antimicrobial resistance is a serious threat to global health, causing increased mortality and morbidity especially among critically ill patients. This toll is expected to rise following the COVID-19 pandemic. Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) is among the Gram-negative pathogens leading antimicrobial resistance globally; it is listed as a critical priority pathogen by the WHO and is implicated in hospital-acquired infections and outbreaks, particularly in critically ill patients. Recent reports from Lebanon describe increasing rates of infection with CRAb, hence the need to develop concerted interventions to control its spread. We set to describe the impact of combining antimicrobial stewardship and infection control measures on resistance rates and colonization pressure of CRAb in the intensive care units of a tertiary care center in Lebanon before the COVID-19 pandemic. The antimicrobial stewardship program introduced a carbapenem-sparing initiative in April 2019. During the same period, infection control interventions involved focused screening, monitoring, and tracking of CRAb, as well as compliance with specific measures. From January 2018 to January 2020, we report a statistically significant decrease in carbapenem consumption and a decrease in resistance rates of isolated A. baumannii. The colonization pressure of CRAb also decreased significantly, reaching record low levels at the end of the intervention period. The results indicate that a multidisciplinary approach and combined interventions between the stewardship and infection control teams can lead to a sustained reduction in resistance rates and CRAb spread in ICUs.

Modelling the Future Clinical and Economic Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance: The Feasibility and Value of Models to Inform Policy

Due to the increasing threat to public health and the economy, governments internationally are interested in models to estimate the future clinical and economic burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent or control resistance and to inform resource-allocation decision making. A widely cited UK report estimated that 10 million additional deaths will occur globally per annum due to AMR by 2050; however, the utility and accuracy of this prediction has been challenged. The precision of models predicting the future economic burden of AMR is dependent upon the accuracy of predicting future resistance rates. This paper reviews the feasibility and value of modelling to inform policy and resource allocation to manage and curb AMR. Here we describe methods used to estimate future resistance in published burden-of-disease models; the sources of uncertainty are highlighted, which could potentially mislead policy decision-making. While broad assumptions can be made regarding some predictable factors contributing to future resistance rates, the unexpected emergence, establishment and spread of new resistance genes introduces substantial uncertainty into estimates of future economic burden, and in models evaluating the effectiveness of interventions or policies to address AMR. Existing reporting standards for best practice in modelling should be adapted to guide the reporting of AMR economic models, to ensure model transparency and validation for interpretation by policymakers.

Uses of mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of mass drug administration of antibiotics on antimicrobial resistance within and between communities

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are a key part of modern healthcare, but their use has downsides, including selecting for antibiotic resistance, both in the individuals treated with antibiotics and in the community at large. When evaluating the benefits and costs of mass administration of azithromycin to reduce childhood mortality, effects of antibiotic use on antibiotic resistance are important but difficult to measure, especially when evaluating resistance that "spills over" from antibiotic-treated individuals to other members of their community. The aim of this scoping review was to identify how the existing literature on antibiotic resistance modeling could be better leveraged to understand the effect of mass drug administration (MDA) on antibiotic resistance.

MAIN TEXT

Mathematical models of antibiotic use and resistance may be useful for estimating the expected effects of different MDA implementations on different populations, as well as aiding interpretation of existing data and guiding future experimental design. Here, strengths and limitations of models of antibiotic resistance are reviewed, and possible applications of those models in the context of mass drug administration with azithromycin are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Statistical models of antibiotic use and resistance may provide robust and relevant estimates of the possible effects of MDA on resistance. Mechanistic models of resistance, while able to more precisely estimate the effects of different implementations of MDA on resistance, may require more data from MDA trials to be accurately parameterized.

Identifying Targets for Antibiotic Use for the Management of Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) in Hospitals-A Multi-Centre Nonlinear Time-Series Study

Solutions are needed to inform antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) regarding balancing the access to effective antimicrobials with the need to control antimicrobial resistance. Theoretical and mathematical models suggest a non-linear relationship between antibiotic use and resistance, indicating the existence of thresholds of antibiotic use beyond which resistance would be triggered. It is anticipated that thresholds may vary across populations depending on host, environment, and organism factors. Further research is needed to evaluate thresholds in antibiotic use for a specific pathogen across different settings. The objective of this study is to identify thresholds of population antibiotic use associated with the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) across six hospital sites in Oman. The study was an ecological, multi-centre evaluation that involved collecting historical antibiotic use and CRAb incidence over the period from January 2015 to December 2019. By using non-linear time-series analysis, we identified different thresholds in the use of third-generation cephalosporins, piperacillin-tazobactam, aminoglycoside, and fluoroquinolones across participating hospitals. The identification of different thresholds emphasises the need for tailored analysis based on modelling data from each hospital. The determined thresholds can be used to set targets for each hospital AMS, providing a balance between access to these antibiotics versus controlling CRAb incidence.

A Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis to Identify the Thresholds in Relationships Between Antimicrobial Consumption and Resistance in a Chinese Tertiary Hospital

INTRODUCTION

Balancing the benefits and risks of antimicrobials in health care requires an understanding of their effects on antimicrobial resistance at the population scale. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between the population antibiotics use and resistance rates and further identify their critical thresholds.

METHODS

Data for monthly consumption of six antibiotics (daily defined doses [DDDs]/1000 inpatient-days) and the number of cases caused by five common drug-resistant bacteria (occupied bed days [OBDs]/10,000 inpatient-days) from inpatients during 2009-2020 were retrieved from the electronic prescription system at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, a tertiary hospital in Jiangsu Province, China. Then, a nonlinear time series analysis method, named generalized additive models (GAM), was applied to analyze the pairwise relationships and thresholds of these antibiotic consumption and resistance.

RESULTS

The incidence densities of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP), and aminoglycoside-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa were all strongly synchronized with recent hospital use of carbapenems and glycopeptides. Besides, the prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli was also highly connected the consumption of carbapenems and fluoroquinolones. To lessen resistance, we determined a threshold for carbapenem and glycopeptide usage, where the maximum consumption should not exceed 31.042 and 25.152 DDDs per 1000 OBDs, respectively; however, the thresholds of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporin, aminoglycosides, and β-lactams have not been identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The inappropriate usage of carbapenems and glycopeptides was proved to drive the incidence of common drug-resistant bacteria in hospitals. Nonlinear time series analysis provided an efficient and simple way to determine the thresholds of these antibiotics, which could provide population-specific quantitative targets for antibiotic stewardship.

Quantifying the effect of in-hospital antimicrobial use on the development of colistin-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strains: a time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Colistin is currently considered an essential therapeutic option for the treatment of hospital-acquired infections caused by resistant isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii. In this study, conducted in a tertiary care hospital, the effect of previous detection rates and antimicrobial use on colistin-resistant A. baumannii strains was investigated.

METHODS

Susceptibility data for A. baumannii isolates and colistin use information were collected for 48 consecutive months (January 2014 to December 2017). ARIMA models were used to explore the time series of colistin use and resistance to A. baumannii. In addition, dynamic regression models were used to study the relationships between the use of antimicrobials (colistin, imipenem, meropenem, cefepime, ciprofloxacin) and colistin resistance.

RESULTS

The results of the univariate model showed a statistically significant positive association between colistin use and the detection rate of colistin-resistant A. baumannii (p=0.003). Moreover, a multivariate model confirmed the positive association of colistin use with the detection rate of colistin-resistant A. baumannii, also demonstrating statistically significant negative associations with imipenem (p=0.004) and meropenem use (p=0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

This study quantifies the effect of colistin use on the development of resistant strains. These findings can assist antimicrobial stewardship teams to elaborate their plans and predict the effect of their interventions.

Consumption of anti-meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus antibiotics in Swiss hospitals is associated with antibiotic stewardship measures

BACKGROUND

Consumption of antibiotics active against meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been described in numerous European studies. However, the underlying predictors of consumption are still poorly understood.

AIM

To describe the consumption of anti-MRSA antibiotics (daptomycin, intravenous glycopeptides, linezolid) in Switzerland over time and to identify underlying predictor variables.

METHODS

A retrospective observational multi-centre study was conducted in 21 Swiss hospitals over a period of 11 years (2009-2019). Multiple linear regression models were built to identify regional and hospital-specific predictor variables affecting the consumption of anti-MRSA antibiotics.

FINDINGS

Consumption of anti-MRSA antibiotics increased between 2009 and 2019 from 12.7 to 24.5 defined daily doses per 1000 bed-days (+93%). In the first model presented, which includes data of the whole study period, the following variables were associated with higher anti-MRSA antibiotic consumption: number of MRSA cases (P < 0.01), year (P < 0.01), hospital type (tertiary care university hospitals vs others, P < 0.01), hospital department (intensive care unit vs others, P < 0.01) and linguistic region (French vs German and German vs Italian, P < 0.01). In a second model including data from a query on hospital policies in place in 2019, the presence of an antibiotic stewardship group (P < 0.01) and prescription restrictions (P < 0.01) were associated with consumption of anti-MRSA antibiotics.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that both the presence of an antibiotic stewardship group and the implementation of prescription restrictions, i.e. factors that can be controlled by the hospital itself, were associated with a lower consumption of anti-MRSA antibiotics.

Determinants of Antimicrobial Resistance among the Different European Countries: More than Human and Animal Antimicrobial Consumption

Although antimicrobial consumption is considered the main driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), other factors probably have a significant but less studied impact. The study’s goal was to assess AMR drivers across different European countries and quantify their possible contributions using the latest data available. Using the ESAC-Net (European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network) database, the ESVAC (European Surveillance of Veterinary Antimicrobial Consumption) database and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) information, a dataset including 23 European countries was created. Associations between AMR and potential contributing factors were assessed using bivariate correlation and multiple linear regression models for multivariable analyses. Factors associated with the AMR rate among European countries were human ambulatory consumption of antibiotics and per capita expenditure on health, meaning that the higher human ambulatory consumption of antibiotics and the lower the per capita expenditure on health, the higher the AMR. Both variables together explain 74% of AMR variation. Private expenditure on health in terms of % GDP (Gross Domestic Profit) was positively related to a higher AMR rate. In conclusion, considering antibiotic consumption as the most important factor contributing to AMR may be a deviant focus, as resistance transmission may be paramount for AMR levels. Low per capita expenditure on health, probably a surrogate of worse healthcare conditions and a high level of resistance transmission, has a strong correlation with the AMR rate. Increasing public expenditure on healthcare, to strengthen infection control structures and processes interventions, seems relevant to tackle antimicrobial resistance at the European scale.

The role of antimicrobial stewardship in preventing KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae

Antimicrobial stewardship programmes are widely considered to be a core component of the response to the antimicrobial resistance threat. However, a positive impact of these interventions in terms of microbiological outcomes remains difficult to demonstrate, especially when focusing on specific resistant phenotypes. The first part of this review aims to explore the complex relationship between antibiotic exposure and resistance development in KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. In the second part we aim to summarize published examples of antimicrobial stewardship interventions intended to impact on the epidemiology of KPC-producing K. pneumoniae. For this purpose, a literature search was performed and seven studies were included in the review. Both restrictive and non-restrictive interventions were associated with an overall reduction in antibiotic consumption, and a decrease in carbapenem resistance rates was observed in five studies. The overall quality of the evidence was low, mainly due to the poor reporting of microbiological outcomes, lack of a control group and suboptimal study design. Although the link between antibiotic use and resistance development is supported by strong evidence, demonstrating the impact of antimicrobial stewardship interventions on microbiological outcomes remains difficult. Studies with adequate design and appropriate outcome measures are needed to further promote antimicrobial stewardship and elucidate which interventions are more successful for controlling the spread of KPC-producing K. pneumoniae.

Bacterial hyperpolarization modulated by polyoxometalates for solutions of antibiotic resistance

Developing strategies against the antibiotic resistance is a major global challenge for public health. Here, we report the synergy of the combination of Preyssler-type polyoxometalates (POMs) ([NaP5W30O110]14- or [AgP5W30O110]14-) and ribosome-targeting antibiotics for high antibacterial efficiency with low risk of antibiotic resistance. Due to their ultra-small sizes and active surface ligands, POM anions show strong affinity to bacterial cell membrane and impose hyperpolarization of the bacterial cells as well as the decrease of Mg2+ influx by blocking Mg2+ transporters, which finally lead to the structural perturbations of ribosomes and instability of bacterial structures. The bacterial growth can, therefore, be regulated by the presence of POMs: a fraction of Bacillus subtilis shifted to a 'dormant', slow-growing cellular state (an extended lag phase) upon the application of subinhibitory concentration of POMs. An approach to combat antibiotic resistant bacteria by applying POMs at their early growth phase followed by antibiotic exposure is validated, and its high efficiency for bacterial control is confirmed.

Impact of an antimicrobial stewardship programme on reducing broad-spectrum antibiotic use and its effect on carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) in hospitals in Jordan

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the impact of an antimicrobial stewardship programme (ASP) on reducing broad-spectrum antibiotic use and its effect on carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) in hospitalized patients.

METHODS

The study was a retrospective, ecological assessment in a tertiary teaching hospital over 6 years (January 2014 to December 2019). The intervention involved the implementation of an ASP in February 2018, which remains in effect today. This ASP consists of several components, including education, antibiotic guidelines, antibiotic restriction policy with prior approval, audit of compliance to the restriction policy and feedback. Restricted antibiotics were imipenem/cilastatin, ertapenem, meropenem, vancomycin, teicoplanin, tigecycline, colistin, amikacin, piperacillin/tazobactam, levofloxacin and ciprofloxacin. The intervention was evaluated by time-series methods.

RESULTS

Statistically significant decreases in the level of antibiotic use, after the introduction of the ASP, were observed for the following antibiotics: imipenem/cilastatin (P = 0.0008), all carbapenems (P = 0.0001), vancomycin (P = 0.0006), colistin (P = 0.0016) and third-generation cephalosporins (P = 0.0004). A statistically significant decrease in the slope, after the introduction of the ASP, for ertapenem (P = 0.0044) and ciprofloxacin (P = 0.0117) was observed. For piperacillin/tazobactam, there was a significant increasing trend (P = 0.0208) before the introduction of the ASP. However, this increased trend was halted post-introduction of the ASP (P = 0.4574). The introduction of the ASP was associated with a significant impact on reducing the levels of CRAb (P = 0.0237).

CONCLUSIONS

The introduced antimicrobial stewardship interventions contributed to a reduction in the use of several broad-spectrum antibiotics, reversed the trends of increasing use of other antibiotics and were associated with a significant reduction in CRAb.

Identification of thresholds in relationships between specific antibiotic use and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb) incidence rates in hospitalized patients in Jordan

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance is a major threat to public health worldwide. The relationship between the intensity of antibiotic use and resistance might not be linear, suggesting that there might be a threshold of antibiotic use, beyond which resistance would be triggered.

OBJECTIVES

To identify thresholds in antibiotic use, below which specific antibiotic classes have no significant measurable impact on the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAb), but above which their use correlates with an increase in the incidence of CRAb.

METHODS

The study took place at a tertiary teaching hospital in Jordan. The study was ecological in nature and was carried out retrospectively over the period January 2014 to December 2019. The outcome time series for this study was CRAb cases. The primary explanatory variables were monthly use of antibiotics and the use of alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR). Non-linear time-series methods were used to identify thresholds in antibiotic use.

RESULTS

Non-linear time-series analysis determined a threshold in third-generation cephalosporin and carbapenem use, where the maximum use of third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems should not exceed 8 DDD/100 occupied bed days (OBD) and 10 DDD/100 OBD, respectively. ABHR had a significant reducing effect on CRAb cases even at lower usage quantities (0.92 L/100 OBD) and had the most significant effect when ABHR exceeded 3.4 L/100 OBD.

CONCLUSIONS

The identification of thresholds, utilizing non-linear time-series methods, can provide a valuable tool to inform hospital antibiotic policies through identifying quantitative targets that balance access to effective therapies with control of resistance. Further studies are needed to validate the identified thresholds, through being prospectively adopted as a target for antimicrobial stewardship programmes, and then to evaluate the impact on reducing CRAb incidence.

Impact of antibiotic usage on extended-spectrum β-lactamase producing Escherichia coli prevalence

An increase in antibiotic usage is considered to contribute to the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Although experts are counting on the antimicrobial stewardship programs to reduce antibiotic usage, their effect remains uncertain. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of antibiotic usage and forecast the prevalence of hospital-acquired extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)—producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) using time-series analysis. Antimicrobial culture information of E. coli was obtained using a text processing technique that helped extract free-text electronic health records from standardized data. The antimicrobial use density (AUD) of antibiotics of interest was used to estimate the quarterly antibiotic usage. Transfer function model was applied to forecast relationship between antibiotic usage and ESBL-producing E. coli. Of the 1938 hospital-acquired isolates, 831 isolates (42.9%) were ESBL-producing E. coli. Both the proportion of ESBL-producing E. coli and AUD increased over time. The transfer model predicted that ciprofloxacin AUD is related to the proportion of ESBL-producing E. coli two quarters later. In conclusion, excessive use of antibiotics was shown to affect the prevalence of resistant organisms in the future. Therefore, the control of antibiotics with antimicrobial stewardship programs should be considered to restrict antimicrobial resistance.

Geographical information system and spatial-temporal statistics for monitoring infectious agents in hospital: a model using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex

Background

The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance and infectious agents have challenged hospitals in recent decades. Our aim was to investigate the circulation of target infectious agents using Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial–temporal statistics to improve surveillance and control of healthcare-associated infection and of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex as a model.

Methods

A retrospective study carried out in a 450-bed federal, tertiary hospital, located in Rio de Janeiro. All isolates of K. pneumoniae complex from clinical and surveillance cultures of hospitalized patients between 2014 and 2016, identified by the use of Vitek-2 system (BioMérieux), were extracted from the hospital's microbiology laboratory database. A basic scaled map of the hospital’s physical structure was created in AutoCAD and converted to QGis software (version 2.18). Thereafter, bacteria according to resistance profiles and patients with carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKp) complex were georeferenced by intensive and nonintensive care wards. Space–time permutation probability scan tests were used for cluster signals detection.

Results

Of the total 759 studied isolates, a significant increase in the resistance profile of K. pneumoniae complex was detected during the studied years. We also identified two space–time clusters affecting adult and paediatric patients harbouring CRKp complex on different floors, unnoticed by regular antimicrobial resistance surveillance.

Conclusions

In-hospital GIS with space–time statistical analysis can be applied in hospitals. This spatial methodology has the potential to expand and facilitate early detection of hospital outbreaks and may become a new tool in combating AMR or hospital-acquired infection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13756-021-00944-5.

Correlation between Acinetobacter baumannii Resistance and Hospital Use of Meropenem, Cefepime, and Ciprofloxacin: Time Series Analysis and Dynamic Regression Models

Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most difficult-to-treat pathogens worldwide, due to developed resistance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of widely prescribed antimicrobials and the respective resistance rates of A. baumannii, and to explore the relationship between antimicrobial use and the emergence of A. baumannii resistance in a tertiary care hospital. Monthly data on A. baumannii susceptibility rates and antimicrobial use, between January 2014 and December 2017, were analyzed using time series analysis (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models) and dynamic regression models. Temporal correlations between meropenem, cefepime, and ciprofloxacin use and the corresponding rates of A. baumannii resistance were documented. The results of ARIMA models showed statistically significant correlation between meropenem use and the detection rate of meropenem-resistant A. baumannii with a lag of two months (p = 0.024). A positive association, with one month lag, was identified between cefepime use and cefepime-resistant A. baumannii (p = 0.028), as well as between ciprofloxacin use and its resistance (p < 0.001). The dynamic regression models offered explanation of variance for the resistance rates (R² > 0.60). The magnitude of the effect on resistance for each antimicrobial agent differed significantly.

Association of Antibiotic Use with the Resistance Epidemiology of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a Hospital Setting: A Four-Year Retrospective Time Series Analysis

Background: Even though, Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a common cause of hospital-acquired infections, treatment is challenging because of decreasing rates of susceptibility to many broad-spectrum antibiotics. Methods: Consumption data of eight broad spectrum antimicrobial agents and resistance rates of P. aeruginosa were collected for 48 consecutive months. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and transfer functions models were used to develop relationships between antibiotic use and resistance. Results: Positive correlations between P. aeruginosa resistance and uses of ciprofloxacin (p < 0.001), meropenem (p < 0.001), and cefepime (p = 0.005) were identified. Transfer function models showed the quantified effect of each of these antibiotics on resistance. Regarding levofloxacin, ceftazidime, piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem, no significant relationships were found. For ceftazidime and levofloxacin, this was probably due to their low consumption, while for imipenem the reason can possibly be ascribed to the already high established P. aeruginosa resistance in the hospital. Conclusion: In the hospital setting, the effect of antimicrobial agents’ consumption on the susceptibility epidemiology of P. aeruginosa differs significantly for each one of them. In this study, the role of precedent use of meropenem, cefepime and ciprofloxacin was quantified in the development of P. aeruginosa resistance.

Gene expression in rat placenta after exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

The organic compound di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is widely used as a plasticizer in many products. Exposure to DEHP has been reported to lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes by suppressing placenta growth and development. The aim of this study was to determine the gene expression profiles of rat placenta exposed to (DEHP) and identify genes crucial for the DEHP response. Three groups of Wistar rats were administered an intragastric dose of 1,000 mg/kg DEHP, 500 mg/kg DEHP, or corn oil, RNA was isolated from placenta tissue, and hybridization was performed. Gene expression profiles were analyzed by identifying functional enrichment, differentially expressed genes (DEGs), protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks and modules, and transcription factor (TF)-miRNA-target regulatory networks. We obtained 2,032 DEGs, including cytochrome P450, family 2, subfamily R, polypeptide 1 (CYP2R1), sterol O-acyltransferase 2 (SOAT2), and 24-dehydrocholesterol reductase (DHCR24) from the steroid biosynthesis pathway and somatostatin receptor 4 (SSTR4) and somatostatin receptor 2 (SSTR2) in the neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction pathway. The PPI network included 476 nodes, 2,682 interaction pairs, and three sub-network modules. Moreover, eight miRNAs, three TFs, and 176 regulatory pairs were obtained from the TF-miRNA-target regulatory network. CYP2R1, SOAT2, DHCR24, SSTR4, and SSTR2 may affect DEHP influence on rat placenta development.

Is There a Resistance Threshold for Macrolide Consumption? Positive Evidence from an Ecological Analysis of Resistance Data from Streptococcus pneumoniae, Treponema pallidum, and Mycoplasma genitalium

If we were to keep macrolide consumption below a certain threshold, would this reduce the probability of macrolide resistance emerging? No study that we are aware of has addressed this question. We, therefore, assessed at a country level if there was a macrolide consumption threshold for the selection of a prevalence of macrolide resistance of over 5% in Streptococcus pneumoniae, Treponema pallidum, and Mycoplasma genitalium. In this ecological-level analysis, we found evidence for a macrolide consumption threshold of 1.3 defined daily doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day (DID) for M. genitalium, 1.8 DID for T. pallidum, and 2.3 DID for S. pneumoniae. Our results provide further motivation for macrolide stewardship campaigns that strive to reduce macrolide consumption to levels below at least 2 DID.

The Role of Uniform Meropenem Usage in Acinetobacter baumannii Clone Replacement

The dominant carbapenem resistant Acinetobacter baumannii harboring bla_OXA-23-like carbapenemase was replaced by bla_OXA-40-like carriers in a Hungarian tertiary-care center with high meropenem but relatively low imipenem use. We hypothesized that alterations in antibiotic consumption may have contributed to this switch. Our workgroup previous study examined the relation between resistance spiral and the antibiotic consumption, and the results suggest that the antibiotic usage provoked the increasing resistance in case of A. baumannii. We aimed at measuring the activity of imipenem and meropenem to compare the selection pressure exerted by the different carbapenems in time-kill assays. Strain replacement was confirmed by whole genome sequencing, core-genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST), and resistome analysis. Based on results of the time-kill assays, we found a significant difference between two different sequence-types (STs) in case of meropenem, but not in case of imipenem susceptibility. The newly emerged ST636 and ST492 had increased resistance level against meropenem compared to the previously dominant ST2 and ST49. On the other hand, the imipenem and colistin resistance profiles were similar. These results suggest, that the uniform meropenem usage may have contributed to A. baumannii strain replacement in our setting.

Long-Term Carbapenems Antimicrobial Stewardship Program

Objective. To evaluate clinical and antibiotic resistance impact of carbapenems stewardship programs. Methods: descriptive study, pre-post-intervention, between January 2012 and December 2019; 350-bed teaching hospital. Prospective audit and feedback to prescribers was carried out between January 2015 and December 2019. We evaluate adequacy of carbapenems prescription to local guidelines and compare results between cases with accepted or rejected intervention. Analysis of antibiotic-consumption and hospital-acquired multidrug-resistant (MDR) bloodstream infections (BSIs) was performed. Results: 1432 patients were followed. Adequacy of carbapenems prescription improved from 49.7% in 2015 to 80.9% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Interventions on prescription were performed in 448 (31.3%) patients without carbapenem-justified treatment, in 371 intervention was accepted, in 77 it was not. Intervention acceptance was associated with shorter duration of all antibiotic treatment and inpatient days (p < 0.05), without differences in outcome. During the period 2015–2019, compared with 2012–2014, decreased meropenem consumption (Rate Ratio 0.58; 95%CI: 0.55–0.63), candidemia and hospital-acquired MDR BSIs rate (RR 0.62; 95%CI: 0.41–0.92, p = 0.02), and increased cefepime (RR 2; 95%CI: 1.77–2.26) and piperacillin-tazobactam consumption (RR 1.17; 95%CI: 1.11–1.24), p < 0.001. Conclusions: the decrease and better use of carbapenems achieved could have clinical and ecological impact over five years, reduce inpatient days, hospital-acquired MDR BSIs, and candidemia, despite the increase in other antibiotic-consumption.

Linking antimicrobial resistance surveillance to antibiotic policy in healthcare settings: the COMBACTE-Magnet EPI-Net COACH project

OBJECTIVES

To systematically summarize the evidence on how to collect, analyse and report antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance data to inform antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) teams providing guidance on empirical antibiotic treatment in healthcare settings.

METHODS

The research group identified 10 key questions about the link between AMR surveillance and AMS using a checklist of 9 elements for good practice in health research priority settings and a modified 3D combined approach matrix, and conducted a systematic review of published original studies and guidelines on the link between AMR surveillance and AMS.

RESULTS

The questions identified focused on AMS team composition; minimum infrastructure requirements for AMR surveillance; organisms, samples and susceptibility patterns to report; data stratification strategies; reporting frequency; resistance thresholds to drive empirical therapy; surveillance in high-risk hospital units, long-term care, outpatient and veterinary settings; and surveillance data from other countries. Twenty guidelines and seven original studies on the implementation of AMR surveillance as part of an AMS programme were included in the literature review.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence summarized in this review provides a useful basis for a more integrated process of developing procedures to report AMR surveillance data to drive AMS interventions. These procedures should be extended to settings outside the acute-care institutions, such as long-term care, outpatient and veterinary. Without proper AMR surveillance, implementation of AMS policies cannot contribute effectively to the fight against MDR pathogens and may even worsen the burden of adverse events from such interventions.

Temporal association between carbapenems usage and antimicrobial resistance in gram-negative bacteria at a tertiary hospital in Nanjing, China

In this study, we investigated the temporal association between carbapenems usage and antimicrobial resistance among major Gram-negative bacteria, using the data of quarterly carbapenems consumptions and percentages of antibiotic resistance for Gram-negative bacteria from inpatients from 2013 to 2017 in a tertiary hospital from Jiangsu Province, China. First, carbapenems consumption showed an increasing trend in the past 5 years, accompanied with the rising rates of A. baumannii and P. aeruginosa resistance against imipenem. In A. baumannii, we identified correlations between carbapenems consumption and antimicrobial resistance against piperacillin/tazobactam, ceftazidime, ciprofloxacin and imipenem, respectively. Additionally, close correlations were observed between carbapenems consumption and antimicrobial resistance against ceftazidime and ciprofloxacin in E. coli. Our data indicated that a significant positive correlation between the usage of carbapenems and the rate of antimicrobial resistance among A. baumannii and E. coli, respectively. Carbapenems should be cautiously prescribed to prevent antimicrobial resistance outbreak in A. baumannii and E. coli.

Mathematical basis for the assessment of antibiotic resistance and administrative counter-strategies

Diversity as well as temporal and spatial changes of the proportional abundances of different antibiotics (cycling, mixing or combinations thereof) have been hypothesised to be an effective administrative control strategy in hospitals to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens in nosocomial or community-acquired infections. However, a rigorous assessment of the efficacy of these control strategies is lacking. The main purpose here is to present a mathematical framework for the assessment of control stategies from a processual stance. To this end, we adopt diverse measures of heterogeneity and diversity of proportional abundances based on the concept of entropy from other fields and adapt them to the needs in assessing the impact of variations in antibiotic consumption on antibiotic resistance. Thereby, we derive a family of diversity measures whose members exhibit different degrees of complexity. Most important, we extent these measures such that they account for the assessment of temporal changes in heterogeneity including otherwise undetected diversity-invariant permutations of antibiotics consumption and prevalence of resistant pathogens. We apply a correlation analysis for the assessment of associations between changes of heterogeneities on the antibiotics and on the pathogen side. As a showcase, which serves as a proof-of-principle, we apply the derived methods to records of antibiotic consumption and prevalence of antibiotic-resistant germs from University Hospital Dresden (cf. supplement “DiebnerEtAl_Data-Supplement”). Besides the quantification of heterogeneities of antibiotics consumption and antibiotic resistance, we show that a reduction of prevalence of antibiotic-resistant germs correlates with a temporal change of similarity with respect to the first observation of antibiotics consumption, although heterogeneity remains approximately constant. Although an interventional study is pending, our mathematical framework turns out to be a viable concept for the assessment and optimisation of control strategies intended to reduce antibiotic resistance.

Extensively drug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii carrying blaOXA-23-like and armA in a hospital after an intervention in the intensive care unit which ended a long-standing endemicity

The aim of the study was to evaluate for a long time the effectiveness of an intervention designed to reduce carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) and its impact on colistin usage in the ICU of a tertiary hospital in Spain. The rate of carbapenem resistance declined drastically during the period of study (2015 to 2018), from 93.57 to 74.65%, especially in the ICU. A significant decrease in colistin usage, from 1.16 to 0.39 DOTs, was observed. Forty-nine CRAB isolates recovered nearly 1 year after starting the intervention were characterized. Most of them were recovered from patients admitted in wards other than ICU and were extensively drug-resistant, carried bla_OXA-23-like and armA, and belonged to ST218. Implementation of control measures is crucial to CRAB control in ICUs but must be extended to all wards in order to eradicate CRAB from hospitals.

Risk Factors of Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria in Lower Respiratory Tract Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria are the main cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with high mortality. The purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors associated with MDR by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE (via Ovid), and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for studies on the risk factors for MDR bacteria in LRTIs as of November 30, 2019. Literature screening, data abstraction, and quality assessment of the eligible studies were performed independently by two researchers.

Results

A total of 3,607 articles were retrieved, of which 21 articles representing 20 cohort studies published in English were included after title/abstract and full-text screening. Among the 21 articles involving 7,650 patients and 1,360 MDR organisms, ten reported the risk factors for MDR Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) and Gram-negative bacteria (GNB), ten for MDR GNB, and one for MDR GPB. The meta-analysis results suggested that prior antibiotic treatment, inappropriate antibiotic therapy, chronic lung disease, chronic liver disease and cerebral disease, prior MDR and PA infection/colonization, recent hospitalization, longer hospitalization stay, endotracheal tracheostomy and mechanical ventilation, tube feeding, nursing home residence, and higher disease severity score were independent risk factors for MDR bacteria.

Conclusions

This review identified fourteen clinical factors that might increase the risk of MDR bacteria in patients with LRTIs. Clinicians could take into account these factors when selecting antibiotics for patients and determine whether coverage for MDR bacteria is required. More well-designed studies are needed to confirm the various risk factors for MDR bacteria in the future.

Quantifying the economic cost of antibiotic resistance and the impact of related interventions: rapid methodological review, conceptual framework and recommendations for future studies

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance (ABR) poses a major threat to health and economic wellbeing worldwide. Reducing ABR will require government interventions to incentivise antibiotic development, prudent antibiotic use, infection control and deployment of partial substitutes such as rapid diagnostics and vaccines. The scale of such interventions needs to be calibrated to accurate and comprehensive estimates of the economic cost of ABR.

METHODS

A conceptual framework for estimating costs attributable to ABR was developed based on previous literature highlighting methodological shortcomings in the field and additional deductive epidemiological and economic reasoning. The framework was supplemented by a rapid methodological review.

RESULTS

The review identified 110 articles quantifying ABR costs. Most were based in high-income countries only (91/110), set in hospitals (95/110), used a healthcare provider or payer perspective (97/110), and used matched cohort approaches to compare costs of patients with antibiotic-resistant infections and antibiotic-susceptible infections (or no infection) (87/110). Better use of methods to correct biases and confounding when making this comparison is needed. Findings also need to be extended beyond their limitations in (1) time (projecting present costs into the future), (2) perspective (from the healthcare sector to entire societies and economies), (3) scope (from individuals to communities and ecosystems), and (4) space (from single sites to countries and the world). Analyses of the impact of interventions need to be extended to examine the impact of the intervention on ABR, rather than considering ABR as an exogeneous factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantifying the economic cost of resistance will require greater rigour and innovation in the use of existing methods to design studies that accurately collect relevant outcomes and further research into new techniques for capturing broader economic outcomes.