Gridded value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China under Shard Socioeconomic Pathways

Atmospheric emissions of hexachlorobutadiene in fine particulate matter from industrial sources

Hexachlorobutadiene (HCBD) is a concerning chemical that is included in the United States Toxic Substances Control Act, and the Stockholm Convention. Knowledge of the sources of HCBD is insufficient and is pivotal for accurate inventory and implementing global action. In this study, unintentional HCBD release and source emission factors of 121 full-scale industrial plants from 12 industries are investigated. Secondary copper smelting, electric arc furnace steelmaking, and hazardous waste incineration show potential for large emission reductions, which are found of high HCBD emission concentrations of > 20 ng/g in fine particulate matter in this study. The highest HCBD emission concentration is observed for the secondary copper smelting industry (average: 1380 ng/g). Source emission factors of HCBD for the 12 industries range from 0.008 kg/t for coal fire power plants to 0.680 kg/t for secondary lead smelting, from which an estimation of approximately 8452.8 g HCBD emissions annually worldwide achieved. The carcinogenic risks caused by HCBD emissions from countries and regions with intensive 12 industrial sources are 1.0-80 times higher than that without these industries. These results will be useful for formulating effective strategies of HCBD control.

Unveiling the spatial differentiation drivers of major soil element behavior along traffic network accessibility

Advancements in transportation networks have induced a spatial-temporal convergence effect, accelerating socio-economic elements flow and dismantling the conventional "core-periphery" urbanization gradient. Accessibility of transportation networks emerges as a reliable indicator of urbanization. There has been a growing global and Chinese focus on the various forms of metal pollution in urban soil. This study aims to investigate the driving forces and effects of urbanization factors (Gross Domestic Product (GDP), value added of secondary industries (VA), night light (NL), population density (PD), and road density (Distance)), soil property factors (pH, electrical conductivity (EC), and total organic carbon (TOC)), and topographic factors (elevation (DEM), aspect, and slope) on toxic heavy metal elements (Cd, As, and Hg) and trace elements (Mn, Ti, V) in surface soil (0-20 cm) across varying accessibility levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Results reveal significant influence of accessibility on Cd and Hg levels (p < 0.05), with higher accessibility areas displaying elevated element concentrations. According to the evaluation results of the single-factor pollution index, Cd and V have the highest pollution exceedance rates (93.18% and 75.76%, respectively). Moran's Index results highlight typical spatial clustering of elements, with hotspots in areas of high accessibility. Urbanization has led to distinct spatial agglomeration patterns in element concentrations and environmental factors. Geographic detector analysis reveal that in low accessibility areas, metal element pollution and distribution are influenced by a combination of complex factors, including soil properties (pH), terrain conditions (DEM), and the urbanization process (VA). In high accessibility areas, toxic heavy metal elements are primarily driven by urbanization factors, largely influenced by transportation activities, industrial development, and population density, while elements Mn, Ti, and V are still influenced by both natural processes and urbanization activities. These findings suggest that urbanization intensifies the impact on potential toxic elements in soil, and that trace elements are increasingly affected by urbanization, warranting further attention.

Evaluating future water security in the upper Yangtze River Basin under a changing environment

Water security is of great significance in social development, ecosystem sustainability, and environmental management. The Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB), which feeds more than 150 million people, is faced with aggravating water security risks due to more frequent hydrometeorological extremes and increasing human water withdrawals under a changing environment. Based on five RCP-SSP scenarios, this study systematically evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of water security in the UYRB under future climatic and societal changes. The future runoff was projected using Watergap global hydrological model (WGHM) under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and hydrological drought was further identified by the run theory. The water withdrawals were predicted based on the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Then, a comprehensive risk index (CRI) for water security was proposed combining the degree of water stress and natural hydrological drought. The results show that the future annual average runoff across the UYRB is projected to increase, and hydrological drought tends to be more severe, especially in the upper and middle reaches. Dominated by water withdrawals in the industry sector, the future water stress in all sub-regions is estimated to increase substantially, with the largest change ratio of WSI in the middle future spatially ranging from 64.5 % to 301.5 % (66.0 % to 314.1 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP8.5). Based on the spatiotemporal variation of CRI, the UYRB is projected to face more severe comprehensive risks for water security in the middle and far future periods, and hotspot sub-regions are identified as Tuo River and Fu River, which are densely populated and economically prosperous, threatening regional sustainable social-economic development. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive countermeasures of water resources administration in response to more severe water security risks in the future UYRB.

Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways

Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the basis of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). A case study in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was conducted for verifying the feasibility and applicability of this approach. GBA is predicted to encounter the increase in extreme precipitation with high intensity and frequency, along with rapid expansion of constructed areas, resulting in exacerbating of urban flood susceptibility. The areas with medium and high flood susceptibility will be expected to increase continuously from 2020 to 2050, by 9.5 %, 12.0 %, and 14.4 % under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In terms of the assessment of spatial-temporal flooding pattern, the areas with high flood susceptibility are overlapped with that in the populated urban center in GBA, surrounding the existing risk areas, which is consistent with the tendency of construction land expansion. The approach in the present study will provide comprehensive insights into the reliable and accurate assessment of urban flooding susceptibility in response to climate change and urbanization.