An Equation Based on Fuzzy Mathematics to Assess the Timing of Haemodialysis Initiation

A practical review of barriers and challenges to a definitive randomised trial of grafts versus fistula

A definitive randomised controlled trial of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) versus arteriovenous grafts (AVG) has been advocated for more than a decade, but as yet, none has been completed. The aim of this article is to summarise the theoretical barriers, review the difficulties in trial design and practicalities that have thus far prevented this from occurring.

Update of dialysis initiation timing in end stage kidney disease patients: is it a resolved question? A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

The exact optimal timing of dialysis for ESKD patients remains unknown. This study systematically reviewed the available evidence with regard to the optimal initiation of maintenance dialysis in ESKD patients.

METHODS

An electronic search was performed in Embase, PubMed and the Cochrane Library in order to find studies investigating associations between variables reference to "start of dialysis" and outcomes. Quality assessment and bias assessment were performed by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and the ROBINSI tool. Due to the heterogeneity of studies, a meta-analysis could not be performed.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies were included; four studies included only haemodialysis patients, three peritoneal dialysis, six both; study outcomes included mortality, cardiovascular events, technique failure, quality of life and others. Nine studies mainly focused on the optimal GFR of maintenance dialysis initiation; five studies showed none association between GFR and mortality or other adverse outcomes, two studies showed dialysis initiation at higher GFR levels were with poor prognosis, and 2 studies showed higher GFR levels with better prognosis. Three studies paid attention to comprehensive assessment of uremic signs and/or symptoms for optimal dialysis initiation; uremic burden based on 7 uremic indicators (hemoglobin, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, potassium, phosphorus, and bicarbonate) were not associated with mortality; another equation (combination of sex, age, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, serum albumin, haemoglobin, serum phosphorus, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure) based on fuzzy mathematics to assess the timing of haemodialysis initiation was accuracy to prognose 3-year survival; the third study found that volume overload or hypertension was associated with the highest risk for subsequent mortality. Two studies compared urgent or optimal start in dialysis, a study reported increased survival in optimal start patients, another reported no differences between Urgent-Start-PD and Early-Start-PD regarding 6-month outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

Heterogeneity among the studies was quite high, with differences in sample size, variable and group characteristics; no RCT studies were included, which weakened the strength of evidences.

CONCLUSIONS

The criteria for dialysis initiation were varied. Most studies proved that GFR at dialysis initiation was not associated with mortality, timing of dialysis initiation should not be based on GFR, assessments of volume load and patient's tolerance to volume overload are prospective approaches.

Mortality and associated risk factors between young and elderly maintenance haemodialysis patients: a multicentre retrospective cohort study in China

OBJECTIVES

Mortality and associated risk factors in young and elderly haemodialysis patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have not been well examined in China. Therefore, we aimed to assess the all-cause mortality and risk factors associated with all-cause mortality between young and elderly haemodialysis patients in China.

DESIGN

A population-based multicentre retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Using the Dialysis Initiation based on Fuzzy mathematics Equation study data, patients with ESKD undergoing maintenance haemodialysis from 24 centres in China from 1 January 2008 to 30 September 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

1601 enrolled patients with ESKD were categorised into young group (18-44 years old) and elderly (≥60 years old) group.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We estimated overall survival using a log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was implemented to identify risk factors and HR associated all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 48.17±25.59 months, of the 1601 subjects, 319 (19.92%) patients death, including 64 (9.97%) in young group and 255 (26.59%) in elderly group, respectively. The cumulative survival in elderly group was lower than young group (Log Rank tests=63.31, p<0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed the cardiovascular disease (HR, 2.393; 95% CI 1.532 to 3.735; p<0.001), cerebrovascular disease (HR, 2.542; 95% CI 1.364 to 4.739; p=0.003) and serum albumin<3.5 g/dL (HR, 1.725; 95% CI 1.091 to 2.726; p=0.020) at the haemodialysis initiation were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in elderly groups; however, the cardiovascular disease only was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in young groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The all-cause mortality of elderly haemodialysis patients were higher than young haemodialysis patients in China. Identified risk factors associated all-cause mortality may inform development of age-appropriate treatment, intervention strategies and improve survival prognosis of this unique population.

Assessment of dialysis initiation by a fuzzy mathematics equation (ADIFE): a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Starting dialysis early or late both result in a low quality of life and a poor prognosis in patients undergoing haemodialysis. However, there remains no consensus on the optimal timing of dialysis initiation, mainly because of a lack of suitable methods to assess variations in dialysis initiation time. We have established a novel equation named DIFE (Dialysis Initiation based on Fuzzy-mathematics Equation) through a retrospective, multicentre clinical cohort study in China to determine the most suitable timing of dialysis initiation. The predictors of the DIFE include nine biochemical markers and clinical variables that together influence dialysis initiation. To externally validate the clinical accuracy of DIFE, we designed the assessment of DIFE (ADIFE) study as a prospective, open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial to assess the clinical outcomes among patients who initiate dialysis in an optimal start dialysis group and a late-start dialysis group, based on DIFE.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 388 enrolled patients with end-stage renal disease will be randomised 1:1 to the optimal start dialysis group, with a DIFE value between 30 and 35, or the late-start dialysis group, with a DIFE value less than 30, using the Randomization and Trial Supply Management system. Participants will be assessed for changes in signs and symptoms, dialysis mode and parameters, biochemical and inflammatory markers, Subjective Global Assessment, Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form, Cognitive Assessment, medical costs, adverse events and concomitant medication at baseline, predialysis visiting stage and postdialysis visiting stage, every 12-24 weeks. The following data will be recorded on standardised online electronic case report forms. The primary endpoint is 3-year all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoints include non-fatal cerebrocardiovascular events, annual hospitalisation rate, quality of life, medical costs and haemodialysis related complications.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University China (registration no: YJ-KY-2017-119) and the ethics committees of all participating centres. The final results of the ADIFE trial will be presented to the study sponsor, clinical researchers and the patient and public involvement reference group. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, Clinical Practice Guidelines and at scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrial.gov. Registry (NCT03385902); pre-results.