Contrasting impacts of precipitation on Mediterranean birds and butterflies

A comparison of butterfly communities in irrigated and non-irrigated Mediterranean farmlands

Irrigation is considered a form of agricultural intensification and is of significant importance in arid and semi-arid regions, such as those in the Mediterranean basin. This region differs substantially from temperate ones, in terms of climate, land-use policies and types of agricultural systems. Therefore, how biodiversity is affected by agricultural intensification may also differ substantially from countries in north-western Europe. We investigated the effect of irrigation on butterfly diversity and abundance at two different spatial scales in an agricultural region in northern Cyprus, an area representative of typical lowland agricultural practices of the Eastern Mediterranean. We investigated how local field-scale management (irrigated vs rain-fed) and the proportion of irrigated land at a larger scale of 0.25 km2 affected the abundance and diversity of butterflies and herbaceous plant species. Butterflies and herbaceous plants were surveyed in field boundaries adjacent to agricultural fields located in paired plots that had contrasting levels of irrigation. Butterflies in the field boundaries along agricultural fields were strongly positively affected by irrigation in the adjacent fields both in terms of abundance and species diversity, whereas the effect of irrigation at the larger scale of the 0.25-km2 plot was less prominent. Species composition of butterflies and plants did not correlate. However, plant abundance and alpha diversity of the vegetation in the field boundaries correlated with both abundance and alpha diversity of the butterflies when the abundance of plants was relatively low, in particular, when grasses were omitted from the data set. Crop species associated with irrigated fields contributed to the observed patterns. Comparing the results of this study with those reported for temperate regions in northwestern Europe reveals that the effectiveness of management schemes on biodiversity depend on biogeographical region, highlighting the risk of making broad assumption on the effectiveness of management strategies on biodiversity.

Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis)

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.

Ambient ozone - New threat to birds in mountain ecosystems?

Mountain ecosystems are inhabited by species with specific characteristics enabling survival at high altitudes, which make them at risk from various pressures. In order to study these pressures, birds represent excellent model organisms due to their high diversity and position at the top of food chains. The pressures upon mountain bird populations include climate change, human disturbance, land abandonment, and air pollution, whose impacts are little understood. Ambient ozone (O₃) is one of the most important air pollutants occurring in elevated concentrations in mountain conditions. Although laboratory experiments and indirect course-scale evidence suggest its negative effects on birds, population-level impacts remain unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we analysed a unique 25-years long time series of annual monitoring of bird populations conducted at fixed sites under constant effort in a Central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains, Czechia. We related annual population growth rates of 51 bird species to O₃ concentrations measured during the breeding season and hypothesized (i) an overall negative relationship across all species, and (ii) more negative O₃ effects at higher altitudes due to increasing O₃ concentration along altitudinal gradient. After controlling for the influence of weather conditions on bird population growth rates, we found an indication of the overall negative effect of O₃ concentration, but it was insignificant. However, the effect became stronger and significant when we performed a separate analysis of upland species occupying the alpine zone above treeline. In these species, populations growth rates were lower after the years experiencing higher O₃ concentration indicating an adverse impact of O₃ on bird breeding. This impact corresponds well to O₃ behaviour and mountain bird ecology. Our study thus represents the first step towards mechanistic understanding of O₃ impacts on animal populations in nature linking the experimental results with indirect indications at the country-level.

Precipitation buffers temperature-driven local extinctions of moths at warm range margins

Species' distributions are moving polewards in response to climate change, and although range expansions of relatively warm-adapted species are widely reported, reports of range retractions in cool-adapted species are less common. Here, we analysed species' distribution shifts for 76 cool-adapted moths in Great Britain using citizen science occurrence records from the National Moth Recording Scheme over a 40-year period. Although we find evidence for trailing edge shifts to higher latitudes, shifts in species' range centroids are oriented towards the north-west, and are more closely correlated with directional changes in total precipitation than average temperature. We also found that species' local extinction risk is higher in areas where temperature is high and precipitation is low, but this risk diminishes as precipitation increases. Adaptation efforts should therefore focus on maintaining or increasing water availability as the climate continues to change.

Mediterranean moth diversity is sensitive to increasing temperatures and drought under climate change

Climate change affects ecosystems worldwide and is threatening biodiversity. Insects, as ectotherm organisms, are strongly dependent on the thermal environment. Yet, little is known about the effects of summer heat and drought on insect diversity. In the Mediterranean climate zone, a region strongly affected by climate change, hot summers might have severe effects on insect communities. Especially the larval stage might be sensitive to thermal variation, as larvae—compared to other life stages—cannot avoid hot temperatures and drought by dormancy. Here we ask, whether inter-annual fluctuations in Mediterranean moth diversity can be explained by temperature (T_Larv) and precipitation during larval development (H_Larv). To address our question, we analyzed moth communities of a Mediterranean coastal forest during the last 20 years. For species with summer-developing larvae, species richness was significantly negatively correlated with T_Larv, while the community composition was affected by both, T_Larv and H_Larv. Therefore, summer-developing larvae seem particularly sensitive to climate change, as hot summers might exceed the larval temperature optima and drought reduces food plant quality. Increasing frequency and severity of temperature and drought extremes due to climate change, therefore, might amplify insect decline in the future.

Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species' life-cycles and extreme climatic events

Understanding population responses to environmental conditions is key in the current context of climate change and the extreme climatic events that are threatening biodiversity in an unprecedented way. In this work, we provide a framework for understanding butterfly population responses to weather and extreme climatic seasons by taking into account topographic heterogeneity, species' life-cycles and density-dependent processes. We used a citizen-science database of Mediterranean butterflies that contains long-term population data (28 years) on 78 butterfly species from 146 sites in the Mediterranean mesic and alpine climate regions. Climatic data were obtained from 93 meteorological stations operating during this period near the butterfly sites. We studied how seasonal precipitation and temperature affect population growth while taking into account the effects of density dependence. Our results reveal (i) the beneficial effects of winter and spring precipitation for butterfly populations, which are most evident in the Mediterranean region and in univoltine species, and mainly affect the larval stage; (ii) a general negative effect of summer rain in the previous year, which affects the adult stage; and (iii) a consistent negative effect of mild autumns and winters on population growth. In addition, density dependence played a major role in the population dynamics of most species, except for those with long-term negative population trends. Our analyses also provide compelling evidence that both extreme population levels in previous years and extreme climatic seasons in the current year provoke population crashes and explosions, especially in the Mediterranean mesic region.

Local adaptation to climate anomalies relates to species phylogeny

Climatic anomalies are increasing in intensity and frequency due to rapid rates of global change, leading to increased extinction risk for many species. The impacts of anomalies are likely to vary between species due to different degrees of sensitivity and extents of local adaptation. Here, we used long-term butterfly monitoring data of 143 species across six European bioclimatic regions to show how species’ population dynamics have responded to local or globally-calculated climatic anomalies, and how species attributes mediate these responses. Contrary to expectations, degree of apparent local adaptation, estimated from the relative population sensitivity to local versus global anomalies, showed no associations with species mobility or reproductive rate but did contain a strong phylogenetic signal. The existence of phylogenetically-patterned local adaptation to climate has important implications for forecasting species responses to current and future climatic conditions and for developing appropriate conservation practices.

Melero et al. investigate butterfly responses to climatic anomalies from long-term monitoring observations in the field. They found the degree of adaptation to local fluctuations in climate had a strong phylogenetic signal but was not associated with mobility or reproductive rate of a species.

A global-scale expert assessment of drivers and risks associated with pollinator decline

Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.

Concurrent Butterfly, Bat and Small Mammal Monitoring Programmes Using Citizen Science in Catalonia (NE Spain): A Historical Review and Future Directions

The Biodiversity and Bioindicators research group (BiBIO), based at the Natural Sciences Museum of Granollers, has coordinated four long-term faunal monitoring programmes based on citizen science over more than two decades in Catalonia (NE Spain). We summarize the historical progress of these programmes, describing their main conservation outputs, the challenges overcome, and future directions. The Catalan Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (CBMS) consists of a network of nearly 200 recording sites where butterfly populations have been monitored through visual censuses along transects for nearly three decades. This programme provides accurate temporal and spatial changes in the abundance of butterflies and relates them to different environmental factors (e.g., habitat and weather conditions). The Bat Monitoring Programme has progressively evolved to include passive acoustic monitoring protocols, as well as bat box-, underground- and river-bat surveys, and community ecological indices have been developed to monitor bat responses at assemblage level to both landscape and climatic changes. The Monitoring of common small mammals in Spain (SEMICE), a common small mammal monitoring programme with almost 80 active live-trapping stations, provides information to estimate population trends and has underlined the relevance of small mammals as both prey (of several predators) and predators (of insect forest pests). The Dormouse Monitoring Programme represents the first monitoring programme in Europe using specific nest boxes for the edible dormouse, providing information about biological and demographic data of the species at the southern limit of its distribution range. The combination and complementarity of these monitoring programmes provide crucial data to land managers to improve the understanding of conservation needs and develop efficient protection laws.