Modifiable risk factors for 9-year mortality in older English and Brazilian adults: The ELSA and SIGa-Bagé ageing cohorts

Mortality from non-communicable diseases and associated risk factors in Zambia; analysis of the sample vital registration with verbal autopsy 2015/2016

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the world's growing cause of preventable illness, disability, morbidity, and mortality which account for 71% of deaths. The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with mortality from NCDs among persons aged 15 years and above in Zambia.

METHODOLOGY

The study used data from Sample Vital Registration with Verbal Autopsy (SAVVY) 2015/16 (Zambia). A total of 3529 Verbal Autopsy were completed in the study, with only 2599 of death where among people aged 15 years and above. Three-level data analysis was applied; univariate analysis, bivariate analysis, and multivariate analysis (binary logistic regression).

FINDINGS

The overall number of deaths from NCDs was 28.81%. Stratified analysis by gender showed that deaths from NCDs were higher among women (32.60%) as compared to men (26.25%). Among all persons, dying from NCDs was associated with tobacco use, age, and education. Tobacco use was negatively associated with mortality from NCDs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.98). Age was positively associated with the odds of dying from NCDs among persons aged 45-59 years (aOR = 3.87, 95% CI: 2.13-7.01), 60-74 years (aOR = 12.05, 95% CI: 6.44-22.55), and 75 + years (aOR = 15.16, 95% CI: 7.93-28.97). The likelihood of dying from NCDs was higher among persons with secondary education as compared to those with no education (aOR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.11-3.33).

CONCLUSION

The findings from this study suggest that public health interventions targeting NCDs need to consider behavioural factors, especially tobacco use which exposes people to second-hand smoke. We also recommend large-scale national-level studies to further examine the contribution of each factor leading to mortality from NCDs.

Socioeconomic, Disease Burden, Physical Functioning, Psychosocial, and Environmental Factors Associated With Mortality Among Older Adults: The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSI-Brazil)

OBJECTIVES

There is little nationally representative information about factors associated with longevity among older Brazilians.

METHODS

Baseline survey data from the Brazilian longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil) were linked to vital statistics systems. Mortality rates and life expectancy estimates were calculated and compared to official sources. Cox Proportional Hazards models and Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) identified significant predictors of mortality. Results: Calculated mortality rates and life expectancy estimates were similar to official statistics for most ages with higher risk of death among older ages, as expected. High School completion, being partnered, and female sex were negatively associated with mortality, while being underweight, previous diagnosis of a chronic condition, having any functional limitations, poor self-rated health, low grip strength, and smoking were all associated with higher mortality risk. Discussion: The ELSI-Brazil study has potential to identify factors associated with longevity and to inform programs and policies designed to enhance healthy aging among older adults in Brazil.

Changes in health behaviors in elderly Brazilians: data from the 2013 and 2019 National Health Surveys

Changes in health behaviors of elderly people (≥65 years old) in Brazil included in the National Health Survey 2013 (n=7,712) and 2019 (n=15,926) were analyzed. Cross-sectional study compared prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of current and past smoking; alcohol abuse; leisure-time physical activity; consumption of fruit and vegetables. Differences were considered statistically significant at the 5% level. All positive health behaviors increased significantly over the period. The consumption of fruit and vegetables was the most prevalent, and smoking cessation the one that grew the most. The consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical activity during leisure time and alcohol abuse prevailed in the capitals, with current and past smokers prevailing in the interior. Men had higher estimates of current and past smoking and alcohol abuse. In younger women, alcohol abuse significantly increased. Leisure-time physical activity did not differ between the sexes. Women consumed more fruit at all ages and years, but vegetables depended on age and year. The prevalence of healthy behavior has increased in Brazil. However, individual and contextual inequalities have remained and affect the achievement of more positive levels of health.

Association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer diagnosis and survival: a retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosis and subsequent survival can influence public health messaging delivered in lung-cancer screening. We aimed to assess whether the duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis of NSCLC is associated with improved survival.

METHODS

In this retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies, we used 26 cohorts participating in Clinical Outcomes Studies of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (COS-ILCCO) at 23 hospitals. 16 (62%) were from North America, six (23%) were from Europe, three (12%) were from Asia, and one (4%) was from South America. Patients enrolled were diagnosed between June 1, 1983, and Dec 31, 2019. Eligible patients had smoking data before NSCLC diagnosis, epidemiological data at diagnosis (obtained largely from patient questionnaires), and clinical information (retrieved from medical records). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox models (ie, adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs]) were generated with individual, harmonised patient data from the consortium database. We estimated overall survival for all causes, measured in years from diagnosis date until the date of the last follow-up or death due to any cause and NSCLC-specific survival.

FINDINGS

Of 42 087 patients with NSCLC in the COS-ILCCO database, 21 893 (52·0%) of whom were male and 20 194 (48·0%) of whom were female, we excluded 4474 (10·6%) with missing data. Compared with current smokers (15 036 [40·0%] of 37 613), patients with 1-3 years of smoking abstinence before NSCLC diagnosis (2890 [7·7%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·87-0·97), patients with 3-5 years of smoking abstinence (1114 [3·0%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·83-0·97), and patients with more than 5 years of smoking abstinence (10 841 [28·8%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·87-0·93). Improved NSCLC-specific survival was observed in 4301 (44%) of 9727 patients who had quit cigarette smoking and was significant at abstinence durations of more than 5 years (aHR 0·87, 95% CI 0·81-0·93). Results were consistent across age, sex, histology, and disease-stage distributions.

INTERPRETATION

In this large, pooled analysis of cohort studies across Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, overall survival was improved in patients with NSCLC whose duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis was as short as 1 year. These findings suggest that quitting smoking can improve overall survival, even if NSCLC is diagnosed at a later lung-cancer screening visit. These findings also support the implementation of public health smoking cessation strategies at any time.

FUNDING

The Alan B Brown Chair, The Posluns Family Fund, The Lusi Wong Fund, and the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation.

Large Contribution of Oral Status for Death Among Modifiable Risk Factors in Older Adults: The Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Oral diseases are preventable and modifiable, but highly prevalent, and cause worse oral status. Particularly, tooth loss has increased in aging societies. However, studies on population-attributable risks of modifiable risk factors for mortality have neglected oral status. This study aimed to investigate the impact of modifiable risk factors on mortality, including oral status.

METHODS

This cohort study used the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study data, including participants aged ≥65 years. The outcome was death between August 2010 and March 2017. We calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable fraction (PAF) of modifiable risk factors (oral status, hypertension, depression, heart disease, diabetes, physical activity, smoking status, and alcohol drinking history) for mortality.

RESULTS

Analyses included 24 175 men and 27 888 women (mean age: 73.8 [6.0] and 74.2 [6.1], respectively). In men, after adjusting for covariates, having no teeth showed the highest hazard ratio (HR = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.86) among the modifiable risk factors, and the PAF for the number of teeth (18.2%) was the second largest following age. In women, having no teeth had the third largest HR (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.19-1.56) following current and former smoking. The PAF for the number of teeth (8.5%) was the sixth largest, which was larger than that of smoking status (4.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the older population, the HR and PAF of the number of teeth on mortality were sufficiently large compared with other modifiable risk factors, especially in men. Therefore, maintaining good oral status should be included more in global health policies.

How much of the stalled mortality trends in Scotland and England can be attributed to obesity?

OBJECTIVES

The rate of improvement in all-cause mortality rates has slowed in the UK since around 2012. While evidence suggests that UK Government 'austerity' policies have been largely responsible, it has been proposed that rising obesity may also have contributed. The aim here was to estimate this contribution for Scotland and England.

METHODS

We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) resulting from changes in Body Mass Index (BMI) between the mid-1990s and late 2000s for all-cause mortality among 35-89-year olds in 2017-2019. We used BMI data from national surveys (the Scottish Health Survey and the Health Survey for England), and HRs from a meta-analysis of 89 European studies. PAFs were applied to mortality data for 2017-2019 (obtained from national registries), enabling comparison of observed rates, BMI-adjusted rates and projected rates. Uncertainty in the estimates is dominated by the assumptions used and biases in the underlying data, rather than random variation. A series of sensitivity analyses and bias assessments were therefore undertaken to understand the certainty of the estimates.

RESULTS

In Scotland, an estimated 10% (males) and 14% (females) of the difference between observed and predicted mortality rates in 2017-2019 may be attributable to previous changes in BMI. The equivalent figures for England were notably higher: 20% and 35%, respectively. The assessments of bias suggest these are more likely to be overestimates than underestimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Some of the recent stalled mortality trends in Scotland and England may be associated with earlier increases in obesity. Policies to reduce the obesogenic environment, including its structural and commercial determinants, and reverse the impacts of austerity, are needed.

Physical inactivity and dementia in Brazil: a call to action

ABSTRACT. Low- and middle-income countries will house two-thirds of cases of dementia in the world by 2050, while the incidence is decreasing in some high-income countries. In Brazil, one in four cases of dementia can be attributable to physical inactivity. Considering the projected prevalence of dementia by 2050 in Brazil, well-coordinated task forces are needed to improve awareness of non-pharmacological approaches in order to reduce the current and projected burden of dementia in the country. In this study, we discussed the current scenario and perspectives of physical inactivity and dementia in Brazil.

Physical inactivity – The human health’s greatest enemy

For decades, research has been highlighting the positive impact of physical activity on health. Despite the immense efforts made by many professional and scientific organizations to raise individual and societal awareness about the role of a sufficient quantity and intensity of physical activity in everyday life and to increase the level of adherence, the situation is still very worrying. Even more worrying is the fact that increasingly prolonged periods of physical inactivity are insidiously and aggressively taking over modern people’s lives – at school, at work, at home, even at leisure. It is probably incomprehensible and difficult for many to accept, but physical inactivity is becoming the first and worst enemy of health in today’s society.

NCD behavioral risk factors and mortality among older adults in Brazil

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

Literature shows that the most studied concurrent risk factors for mortality in elderly individuals are smoking, inadequate diet, alcohol consumption and physical inactivity. The combination of such habits can increase from 3 to 11 times the chance of death. To measure the association between concurrence of behavioral risk factors (BRF) for non-communicable diseases (NCD's) and mortality up to three years among the elderly.

METHODS

Cohort study started in 2014 named "COMO VAI?" with community-dwelling aged ≥60 years in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. We investigated the deaths from all causes occurred until April 2017. The exposure was defined by the presence of physical inactivity, low-quality diet, alcohol consumption and smoking that composed a score ranging from 0 (none) to 4 (all). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the association between BRF concurrence and mortality.

RESULTS

In 2014, 1451 elderly people were interviewed, 145 deaths were identified (10%) by April 2017. Higher risk of death was observed for the combinations of physical inactivity + smoking and low-quality diet + physical inactivity. The simultaneous presence of three or more BRF was associated with a nearly six-fold higher risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher mortality during a 3-year period was observed among those with at least three BRF for NCD's.

Cohort study of ageing from Bagé (SIGa-Bagé), Brazil: profile and methodology

BACKGROUND

The Bagé Cohort Study of Ageing is a population-based cohort study that has recently completed the first follow-up of a representative sample of older adults from Bagé, a city with more than 100,000 inhabitants located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. This is one of the first longitudinal studies to assess the impact of primary health care coverage on health conditions and inequalities. Our aim is to investigate the prevalence, incidence and trends of risk factors, health behaviours, social relationships, non-communicable diseases, geriatric diseases and disorders, hospitalisation, self-perceived health, and all-cause and specific-cause mortality. In addition, we aim to evaluate socioeconomic and health inequalities and the impact of primary health care on the outcomes under study.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study covers participants aged 60 or over, selected by probabilistic (representative) sampling of the urban area of the city of Bagé, which is covered by Primary Health Care Services. The baseline examination included 1593 older adults and was conducted from July 2008 to November 2008. After eight to nine years (2016/2017), the first follow-up was conducted from September 2016 to August 2017. All participants underwent an extensive core assessment programme including structured interviews, questionnaires, cognitive testing (baseline and follow-up), physical examinations and anthropometric measurements (follow-up).

RESULTS

Of the original participants, 1395 (87.6%) were located for follow-up: 757 elderly individuals (47.5%) were re-interviewed, but losses in data transfer occurred for 22. The remaining 638 (40.1%) had died. In addition, we had 81 (5.1%) refusals and 117 (7.3%) losses. Among the 1373 older adults who were followed down, there was a higher proportion of female interviewees (p=0.042) and a higher proportion of male deaths (p=0.001) in 2016/2017. There were no differences in losses and refusals according to gender (p=0.102). There was a difference in average age between the interviewees (68.8 years; SD ±6.5) and non-interviewees (73.2 years; SD ±9.0) (p<0.001). Data are available at the Department of Social Medicine in Federal University of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, for any collaboration.

Differences in disability and nutritional status among older Brazilian and English adults: the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil) and English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) cohorts

BACKGROUND

Brazil and England are 2 countries at different stages in their demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitions and with distinct socioeconomic and politic contexts, but with similar universal health systems. We aimed to examine disability and its association with objective anthropometric indicators of nutritional status, including BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio, comparing older Brazilian and English adults.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from 2 nationally representative aging studies. For Brazil, we included 9412 participants who participated in the baseline (2015-2016) of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil). The English data were from 8024 participants of the wave 6 (2012-2013) of the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). Disability was defined as difficulty to perform at least 1 activity of daily living. We used logistic regression models to examine the association between anthropometric indicators and disability, adjusted for sociodemographic and health-related characteristics, considering the interaction term between each anthropometric indicator and country.

RESULTS

All health-related characteristics were worse in Brazil than England, although the prevalence of disability was similar among Brazilian (17.85%) and English (16.27%) older adults. Fully adjusted models showed statistically significant interaction terms between country and anthropometric indicators. The strength of the associations in Brazil was weaker compared with England. All anthropometric indicators were positively associated with disability: elevated BMI, in Brazil (OR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.51) and in England (OR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.51, 2.14); elevated waist circumference, in Brazil (OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.44) and in England (OR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.51, 2.37); and elevated waist-to-height ratio, in Brazil (OR: 1.20; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.52) and in England (OR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.37, 2.44).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated BMI and waist circumference increased the odds of disability in both populations. However, these associations were stronger in England than in Brazil.

Family Health Strategy, Primary Health Care, and Social Inequalities in Mortality Among Older Adults in Bagé, Southern Brazil

Objectives. To investigate the role of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in reducing social inequalities in mortality over a 9-year follow-up period.Methods. We carried out a population-based cohort study of individuals aged 60 years and older from the city of Bagé, Brazil. Of 1593 participants at baseline (2008), 1314 (82.5%) were included in this 9-year follow-up (2017). We assessed type of primary health care (PHC) coverage and other variables at baseline. In 2017, we ascertained 579 deaths through mortality registers. Hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals modeled time to death estimated by Cox regression. We also tested the effect modification between PHC and wealth.Results. The FHS had a protective effect on mortality among individuals aged 60 to 64 years, a result not found among those not covered by the FHS. Interaction analysis showed that the FHS modified the effect of wealth on mortality. The FHS protected the poorest from all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.36, 0.96) and avoidable mortality (HR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.25, 0.85).Conclusions. FHS coverage reduced social inequalities in mortality among older adults. Our findings highlight the need to guarantee universal health coverage in Brazil by expanding and strengthening the FHS to promote health equity.