Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

Epidemiology and spatiotemporal analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Zhejiang province, China (2004-2023)

Background

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) has become a significant public health issue in Zhejiang province. However, the analysis of epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of AHC in Zhejiang province has not been studied yet.

Methods

Monthly cases of AHC from 2004 to 2023 reported at the county level in Zhejiang province were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Demographic features, yearly county incidence, global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation analyses, and temporal and space-time cluster analysis were performed to identify and visualize the spatiotemporal patterns of AHC cases in Zhejiang province. The epidemiological characteristics of AHC outbreaks in the same period in Zhejiang province were also compared.

Results

A total of 52,119 AHC cases were reported in Zhejiang province, yielding an average incidence rate of 5.37 per 100,000. No fatalities were reported. The average age of those affected was 25.44 ± 4.37 years, with the highest incidence (16.70%) among individuals aged between 10 and 19 years. Seasonal peaks occur from August to October each year. Students and farmers experienced the highest incidence rates of infection. Significant positive spatial correlations for AHC were observed in Zhejiang province in the years 2007 (Moran's I = 0.095, p = 0.039), 2009 (Moran's I = 0.075, p = 0.031), and 2011 (Moran's I = 0.173, p = 0.034), indicating spatial clustering. Spatiotemporal scanning identified two distinct clusters: Cluster 1 and Cluster 2. Cluster 1, characterized by a relative risk of 21.44 (p < 0.001), was located in northeastern Zhejiang province, comprising 30 counties, with an active period from 1st September 2010 to 30th September 2010. Compared to low-risk regions, high-risk counties exhibited a different demographic profile with a higher proportion of men, older people, and farmers. Among the affected students during outbreaks, the predominant symptoms were conjunctival congestion, increased eye secretions, eye swelling, eye pain, photophobia and tearing, while the incidence of fever was relatively low.

Conclusion

The results of this study demonstrate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of AHC cases in Zhejiang province and underscore the necessity for targeted prevention and control measures in high-risk areas to mitigate transmission and occurrence.

Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model

This study aims to explore the application value of the Bayesian Time Structure Sequence (BSTS) model in estimating the acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) epidemics. The reported AHC cases spanning from January 2011 to October 2022 in China were collated. Utilizing R software, the BSTS and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were constructed using the data from January 2011 to December 2021. The prediction effect of both models was compared using the data from January to October 2022, and finally the AHC incidence from November 2022 to December 2023 was predicted. The results indicated that forecast errors under the BSTS model were lower than those under the ARIMA model. The actual AHC incidence in July 2022 from the ARIMA model deviated from the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the predicted value. However, the observed AHC incidence from the BSTS model fell within the 95% CI of the predicted value. Notably, the BSTS model predicted 26,474 new AHC cases in China from November 2022 to December 2023, exhibiting better prediction performance compared to the ARIMA model. This indicates that the BSTS model possesses a high application value for forecasting the epidemic trends of AHC, making it a valuable tool for disease surveillance and prevention strategies.

Spatiotemporal analysis of pertussis in Hunan Province, China, 2009-2019

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to explore the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of pertussis in Hunan Province, and provide a scientific basis for targeting preventive measures in areas with a high incidence of pertussis.

DESIGN

In this retrospective spatial and spatiotemporal (ecological) study, the surveillance and population data of Hunan Province from 2009 to 2019 were analysed. The ArcGIS V.10.3 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visual display, and SaTScan V.9.6 software was used for statistical analysis of spatiotemporal scan data.

SETTINGS

Confirmed and suspected pertussis cases with current addresses in Hunan Province and onset dates between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2019 were included in the study.

PARTICIPANTS

The study used aggregated data, including 6796 confirmed and suspected pertussis cases.

RESULTS

The seasonal peak occurred between March and September, and scattered children were at high risk. The global Moran's I was between 0.107 and 0.341 (p<0.05), which indicated that the incidence of pertussis in Hunan had a positive spatial autocorrelation. The results of local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the hot spots were mainly distributed in the northeast region of Hunan Province. Moreover, both purely space and spatiotemporal scans showed that the central and northeastern parts were the most likely cluster areas with an epidemic period between March and October in 2018 and 2019.

CONCLUSION

The distribution of the pertussis epidemic in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2019 shows spatiotemporal clustering. The clustering areas of the pertussis epidemic were concentrated in the central and northeastern parts of Hunan Province between March and October 2018 and 2019. In areas with low pertussis incidence, the strengthening of the monitoring system may reduce under-reporting. In areas with high pertussis incidence where we could study whether the genes of endemic pertussis strains are mutated and differ from vaccine strains.

Oscillatory properties of class C notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2009 to 2021

Background

Epidemics of infectious diseases have a great negative impact on people's daily life. How it changes over time and what kind of laws it obeys are important questions that researchers are always interested in. Among the characteristics of infectious diseases, the phenomenon of recrudescence is undoubtedly of great concern. Understanding the mechanisms of the outbreak cycle of infectious diseases could be conducive for public health policies to the government.

Method

In this study, we collected time-series data for nine class C notifiable infectious diseases from 2009 to 2021 using public datasets from the National Health Commission of China. Oscillatory power of each infectious disease was captured using the method of the power spectrum analysis.

Results

We found that all the nine class C diseases have strong oscillations, which could be divided into three categories according to their oscillatory frequencies each year. Then, we calculated the oscillation power and the average number of infected cases of all nine diseases in the first 6 years (2009-2015) and the next 6 years (2015-2021) since the update of the surveillance system. The change of oscillation power is positively correlated to the change in the number of infected cases. Moreover, the diseases that break out in summer are more selective than those in winter.

Conclusion

Our results enable us to better understand the oscillation characteristics of class C infectious diseases and provide guidance and suggestions for the government's prevention and control policies.

Epidemiological Investigation and Risk Factor Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in Huangshi Port District, Huangshi City

Objective

This study is aimed at investigating the epidemiology and risk factors of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (pinkeye) in Huangshi Port District of Huangshi City.

Methods

A total of 593 cases of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the observation group. The epidemiological characteristics (age of onset, season, occupation, clinical manifestations, and etiological characteristics) were analyzed. A total of 425 healthy subjects (nonacute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis) were selected as the control group. The general data of the two groups were compared, and the risk factors affecting the occurrence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were analyzed by logistic regression.

Results

The onset age of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis was mainly concentrated in 0-20-year-old and 60-year-old age groups, and the onset season was mainly concentrated in April to August, with the highest incidence in May. The proportions of middle school students and workers in patients with acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were higher than those of other occupations (both P < 0.05). Ocular conjunctival congestion, tingling, and foreign body sensation were the main clinical manifestations of patients with acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. Among the 593 conjunctival swab samples collected in this study, the positive rates of HEV70 and CVA24v were higher than those of adenovirus nucleic acid (both P < 0.05). The proportion of people aged ≤40 years old, male, working outdoors, using potable water equipment, contact history of patients with acute conjunctivitis, history of chemical substances entering eyes, combined with immune system diseases, and public toilet utilization rate ≥ 1 times/d in the observation group was higher than that in the control group (all P < 0.05), and the proportion of people washing hands before eating and after toilet was lower than that in the control group (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that working place outdoors, use of potable water equipment, contact history of patients with acute conjunctivitis (all P < 0.05), and use of public toilets ≥ once a day were risk factors for the occurrence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, and washing hands before eating and after toilet was a protective factor (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The onset age of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis was mainly concentrated in 0-20-year-old and 60-year-old age; the onset season was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn; adenovirus is the main pathogenic bacteria; ocular conjunctivitis congestion, tingling, and foreign body sensation were the main clinical manifestations; working place outdoors, use of potable water equipment, contact history of patients with acute conjunctivitis (all P < 0.05), and use of public toilets ≥ once a day were risk factors for the occurrence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, while washing hands before eating and after toilet was a protective factor.

Epidemiological trends and sociodemographic factors associated with acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in mainland China from 2004 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is classified as a class C notifiable infectious disease in China and poses a great threat to public health. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological trends and hotspots of AHC in mainland China. Sociodemographic factors that could contribute to early warning of AHC were further explored.

METHODS

Yearly and monthly incidences of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis by date and region from 2004 to 2018 were extracted from the Data Center of China Public Health Science. Joinpoint regression and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to explore the epidemiological trends and hotspots of AHC. A generalized linear model was then applied to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and AHC incidence.

RESULTS

The average annual AHC incidence was 3.58/100,000 in mainland China. The first-level spatial and temporal aggregation areas were distributed in Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, and Zhejiang, with gathering times from 2010/1/1 to 2010/12/31 (RR = 20.13, LLR = 474,522.89, P < 0.01). After 2010, the AHC incidence was stable (APC = - 8.37, 95% CI: - 23.02-9.06). However, it was significantly increased in low- and middle-income provinces (AAPC = 10.65, 95% CI: 0.62-21.68, AAPC = 11.94, 95% CI: 0.62-24.53). The peak of AHC occurred during the August to October period. Children who age 0-3 years are identified as high-risk group with AHC incidence significantly increased (APC = 31.54, 95% CI: 0.27-72.56). Birth rate, population ages 0-14 (% of total population), passenger traffic, and urban population (% of total population) were positively associated with the AHC incidence, while per capita gross domestic product was negatively associated with the AHC incidence.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the AHC incidence was stable after 2010 in China, but it was significantly increased in low- and middle-income provinces. Regions with a high birth rate, population ages 0-14 (% of the total population), passenger traffic, urban population (% of the total population) and low per capita gross domestic product are at high risk of incidences of AHC. In the future, public health policy and resource priority for AHC in regions with these characteristics are necessary.

Long-term effects of weather condition and air pollution on acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China: A nationalwide surveillance study in China

BACKGROUND

Global climate change could have potential impact on enterovirus (EV)-induced infectious diseases. However, the environmental factors promoting acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) circulation remain inconclusive. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between the environment and AHC.

METHODS

We retrieved the monthly counts and incidence of AHC, meteorological variables and air quality in mainland China between 2013 and 2018. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models.

RESULTS

A total of 219,599 AHC cases were reported in 31 provinces of China, predominantly in southern and central China, seasonally increased in summer. AHC incidence increased by 7% between 2013 and 2018, from 2.6873 to 2.7570 per 100,000 people. A moderate positive correlation was seen between AHC and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity (RH) and precipitation. Each unit increment was associated with a relative risk for AHC of 1.058 at 17°-32 °C at lag 0 months, 1.017 at 65-71% RH at lag 1.4 months, and 1.039 at 400-569 mm at lag 2.4 months. By contrast, a negative correlation was seen between monthly ambient NO₂ and AHC.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to higher mean temperature, RH and precipitation were associated with an increased risk of AHC. The general public, especially susceptible populations, should pay close attention to weather changes and take protective measures in advance to any AHC outbreak as the above situations occur.

Estimating the Incidence of Conjunctivitis by Comparing the Frequency of Google Search Terms With Clinical Data: Retrospective Study

Background

Infectious conjunctivitis is contagious and may lead to an outbreak. Prevention systems can help to avoid an outbreak.

Objective

We aimed to evaluate if Google search data on conjunctivitis and associated terms can be used to estimate the incidence and if the data can provide an estimation for outbreaks.

Methods

We obtained Google search data over 4 years for the German term for conjunctivitis (“Bindehautentzündung”) and 714 associated terms in 12 selected German cities and Germany as a whole using the Google AdWords Keyword Planner. The search volume from Freiburg was correlated with clinical data from the Freiburg emergency practice (Eye Center University of Freiburg).

Results

The search volume for the German term for conjunctivitis in Germany as a whole and in the 12 German cities showed a highly uniform seasonal pattern. Cross-correlation between the temporal search frequencies in Germany as a whole and the 12 selected cities was high without any lag. Cross-correlation of the search volume in Freiburg with the frequency of conjunctivitis (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems [ICD] code group “H10.-”) from the centralized ophthalmologic emergency practice in Freiburg revealed a considerable temporal association, with the emergency practice lagging behind the frequency. Additionally, Pearson correlation between the count of patients per month and the count of searches per month in Freiburg was statistically significant (P=.04).

Conclusions

We observed a close correlation between the Google search volume for the signs and symptoms of conjunctivitis and the frequency of patients with a congruent diagnosis in the Freiburg region. Regional deviations from the nationwide average search volume may therefore indicate a regional outbreak of infectious conjunctivitis.