Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013-2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. These results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

Linking the long-term variability in global wave energy to swell climate and redefining suitable coasts for energy exploitation

The sustainability of wave energy linked to the intra- and inter-annual variability in wave climate is crucial in wave resource assessment. In this study, we quantify the dependency of stability of wave energy flux (power) on long-term variability of wind and wave climate to detect a relationship between them. We used six decades of re-analysis wind and simulated wave climate in the entire globe and using two 30-yearly periods, we showed that not only the previously suggested minimum period of 10 years for wave energy assessment appears to be insufficient for detecting the influence of climate variability, but also the selection period for wave energy assessment can lead to an over/underestimation of about 25% for wave power. In addition, we quantified the dependency of rates of change of wave power, wind speed and wave parameters and showed that the change in wave power is mainly a function of change in swell wave climate globally. Finally, we redefined the suitability of global hotspots for wave energy extraction using intra-annual fluctuation, long-term change, and the available wave power for the period of six decades. The results highlight the importance of climate variability in resource assessment, sustainability, and prioritizing the hotspots for future development.

Simulation of Summer Rainfall in Thailand by IAP-AGCM4.1

Thailand is located in the Southeast Asian region, where the summer rainfall exhibits strong interannual variability, and the successful simulation of rainfall variation in Thailand by current climate models remains a challenge. Therefore, this paper evaluates the capability of the state-of-the-art Atmospheric GCM of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP-AGCM) in simulating summer rainfall over Thailand by comparing the model’s results with ground-truth observation during 1981–2012. Generally, the model shows a certain skill in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of the summer rainfall climatology and its interannual variability over Thailand, although the model underestimated both rainfall amount and its variability. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the IAP climate model reproduced creditably the spatial patterns of the first three dominant modes of summer rainfall in Thailand, whereas it underestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-1 and overestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-2 significantly. It was further found that the correlation between the observed rainfall anomalies in Thailand and the Niño3.4 index can be reproduced by the IAP model. However, the observed negative correlation is largely underestimated by the IAP climate model, and this could be the reason for the underestimation of explained variance of the EOF-1 by the IAP model. The evaluation results would be of great importance for further model improvement and thus potential application in seasonal prediction in the region.

Reef larval recruitment in response to seascape dynamics in the SW Atlantic

Advances in satellite observation have improved our capacity to track changes in the ocean with numerous ecological and conservation applications, which are yet under-explored for coastal ecology. In this study, we assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics in invertebrate larval recruitment and the Seascape Pelagic Habitat Classification, a satellite remote-sensing product developed by the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) and delivered by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to monitor biodiversity globally. Our ultimate goal was to identify and predict changes in coastal benthic assemblages at tropical reefs in the SW Atlantic based on integrated pelagic conditions, testing the use of MBON Seascape categorization. Our results revealed that the pelagic Seascapes correlated with monthly and seasonal variations in recruitment rates and assemblage composition. Recruitment was strongly influenced by subtropical Seascapes and was reduced by the presence of warm waters with high-nutrient contents and phytoplankton blooms, which are likely to affect reef communities in the long term. Recruitment modeling indicates that Seascapes may be more efficient than sea surface temperature in predicting benthic larval dynamics. Based on historical Seascape patterns, we identified seven events that may have impacted benthic recruitment in this region during the last decades. These findings provide new insights into the application of novel satellite remote-sensing Seascape categorizations in benthic ecology and evidence how reef larval supply in the SW Atlantic could be impacted by recent and future ocean changes.